Any Witnesses to the Wildings, 02/09/2013?

[corktownyuppie]

Seems to me the same things happening now happened 30 years ago. We're talking about a new hockey arena. In 1979 Joe Louis Arena opened. We're talking about public transportation. In the early 80's they announced plans for the PeopleMover. We're talking about Gilbert moving jobs downtown. In the late 70's the RenCen was built. Gateway center is being built with a Meijer. BelAire Center was built in the 80's with a Target.

Detroit was already in a better position 30 years ago than it is today. Hudson's was still open. The population was still over 1 million. This development already happened 20-30 years ago. The city is in worse shape than it was 30 years ago. It seems to me we're just repeating ourselves.

Development is not what is causing the city to turn around. It's not even necessarily a sure-fire sign of a turnaround.

Here is why I'm bullish on Detroit...long term, and for those people who have resources and aren't relying on the city for services in the present:

- The right people moving back in. No, "right" is not code for "white". I'm talking about highly educated people who have a renewed interest in the city. Not only do they bring their work ethic and talent, and not only are they not a disproportionate strain on city services, they also bring something that's difficulty to quantify...access to capital investment. Capital investment which is crucial in a time where Detroit's credit is worthless.

- The dire financial situation isn't a bad thing, long term. It's the best thing for the city because it's finally forcing a confrontation between [[1) reality / sound financial management practice and [[2) the historical cultural legacy of inefficiency, waste, and corruption which has been a giant anchor that cannot possibly be solved through the political process but only through a reform forced by dire circumstances. That dysfunction has always been there holding us back. But access to borrowing has allowed to politically paralyze any reform. That day ends now.

-And finally, a universal recognition by all the stakeholders that Detroit's economy can no longer rely on the manufacturing sector to carry the entire weight of the municipal fiscal health. Yes, it's 30 years later than it should've been. And, yes, we just had to learn things the hard way. But certainly, there's no one with any credibility that says we're going back to the heyday of 1945. Let's end that dream, quit fighting about it, and build a new city that's actually feasible.

I'm not saying the process will be easy. Hell, it's gonna be painful. Just ask anyone at General Motors, another place where 70 years of culture combined with 30 years of denial meant pushing the company to the brink [[and then over the edge) of failure...only to reinvent itself.

Now, there are definite differences between municipal and corporate bankruptcy. But the common theme between Ford, GM, and Detroit is that entrenched interests and political loyalties were preventing much needed reforms from taking place. Financial calamity finally forced the reckoning, and 2 of those 3 are finally in better shape for it.

The 3rd one, Detroit, is next.

Target, Shopping Centers, New Development...that's all well and good. But they are just trimmings and are unreliable indicators. You bet the city is worse off than 30 years ago. Yes population is down. But the fundamental battle royale is finally nearing and the entire city of Detroit government is going to be reinvented, IMHO. Hell, it's already happening. Much of Detroit is now governed by regional boards, and that trend will only continue as financial necessity is forcing change.

Whether it's alcohol, drugs, debt, or dysfunction...it's tough to really end an addiction until you hit rock bottom. For years we put off the inevitable through borrowing. But the addiction is gonna be over soon.

And that's why I think the long term future is brighter.

Long-Term meaning 10-15 yrs and beyond.

CTY

p.s. I re-read this. Apologies in advance for sounding like Nolan Finley. Trust me, he and I are not of the same political ideology...though we both arrive at the same conclusion on this.