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  1. #1

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    Michigan consistently loses population in its exchange with other states. In addition, Michigan is a low fertility/high mortality state compared to other states. The decrease of 110,000 white residents of the three county suburban ring is not surprising. Some retirees moved away and other
    younger people moved in search of better opportunities. There appear to be few places in Michigan attracting in-migrants from other states. Job growth is very slow in Michigan which limits immigration to the state. New employment opportunities in and near downtown Detroit may lead to some in-migration from other states in the city.

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    Quote Originally Posted by renf View Post
    Michigan consistently loses population in its exchange with other states. In addition, Michigan is a low fertility/high mortality state compared to other states. The decrease of 110,000 white residents of the three county suburban ring is not surprising. Some retirees moved away and other
    younger people moved in search of better opportunities. There appear to be few places in Michigan attracting in-migrants from other states. Job growth is very slow in Michigan which limits immigration to the state. New employment opportunities in and near downtown Detroit may lead to some in-migration from other states in the city.
    The majority of the 110,000 didn't go to other states. And you're describing the entire northeastern US. Illinois and New York in particular are in population free fall at least Michigan still grows. Even California is suffering from the maturing effect. It really reaffirms how important immigration is to this country.

    Some of what you're saying is just wrong. Job growth in the state's two biggest cities are not slow. It's actually pretty great growth.

    I'm curious how anybody could calculate suburban ring since it has no definition or defined boundary.
    Last edited by Metro25; November-08-19 at 11:34 AM.

  3. #3

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    Quote Originally Posted by renf View Post
    Michigan consistently loses population in its exchange with other states. In addition, Michigan is a low fertility/high mortality state compared to other states. The decrease of 110,000 white residents of the three county suburban ring is not surprising. Some retirees moved away and other
    younger people moved in search of better opportunities. There appear to be few places in Michigan attracting in-migrants from other states. Job growth is very slow in Michigan which limits immigration to the state. New employment opportunities in and near downtown Detroit may lead to some in-migration from other states in the city.
    I think there is a break in the calculations somewhere. If outer Wayne, Oakland, and Macomb have declined in white population by 110,000, that almost certainly means that Michigan would have declined in population, unless there were a ton of non-whites to come in and replace them. But the ACS estimates that Michigan has grown by over 100,000 since 2010.

    According to the ACS estimates, only Wayne County has declined in population, by about 67,000 people, and that would include Detroit's 41,000 population decline. Oakland and Macomb have grown by roughly 90,000, so there is a surplus of about 65-70K people in the suburban counties ring when you net against suburban Wayne's loss. But if the suburban ring is down 110,000 fewer white people, then that means all of that 65-70K growth in population is non-white, plus another 110,000 non-white people to replace the whites who left/died off. So there are about 180,000 new non-white people in Metro Detroit. While possible, I'm very, very, very skeptical. This would mean that the white share of the tri-county has dropped by over 5% in a decade. That seems like it would be pretty noticeable.

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