Corona Virus Crisis Discussion Thread

[Lowell]

[QUOTE=ASilvaman;588164
German Chancellor predicts a 70% infection rate in her country. With the current 2% mortality rate, that would be 4 million deaths.[/QUOTE]

Ahem. Not to diminish the seriousness of this but 2% of 70% of 83 million is not 4 million.

[Zacha341]

That's right. My math stinks so I have this handy, easy-to-use percent calculator bookmarked for regular use:

percentagecalculator.net

Ahem. Not to diminish the seriousness of this but 2% of 70% of 83 million is not 4 million.

German Chancellor predicts a 70% infection rate in her country. With the current 2% mortality rate, that would be 4 million deaths.

[Atticus]

The problem is a lot of people are overlooking this key context:
Start with the 2% mortality rate, and for discussion sake let’s just say the 2% figure is correct. If you dont agree with my percentages, swap them out with your own. You will still probably end up with a big number at the end regardless.

Next, let’s talk about the others who get it but don’t die. As it has been shown, a significant portion have none or minor symptoms that at worst can be “cured” by staying home, drinking fluids, and getting some rest. Let’s say 70% [[being optimistic) fall into that category. That means the other 30% are going to need extra care. Of that 30%, maybe 15% [[again being optimistic) can be cured by minor medical assistance [[some pain drugs, additional fluids, etc). That means the other 15% [[13% who survive + 2% who don’t) will need significant medical help [[ie hospital beds, doctors, nurses, etc.)

Finally, let’s go back to the total percentage of people who get the disease. Germany thinks up to 60% of their population could get it, but I am going to continue to be optimistic and say it is only 30% in the USA.

So under my very optimistic calculations: [[330million Americans) x [[30% who get it) x [[15% who need hospital beds) = 14.8million hospital beds needed for the virus. Using the same percentages for 10 million Michigan residents results in 450,000 hospital beds. As most on here know, that bed number is about 2/3 the population of the City of Detroit, and twice the population of the City of Grand Rapids.

Think about that demand that will be needed. We have no where near that number of hospital beds, or medical staff, or IV bags, etc. Where do these people go? Who takes care of them? If the percentages are close to correct, the only solution is to slow the virus spread so people don’t all need the hospital beds at the same time. That my friends is what all of these cancellations are truly about... slowing the inevitable spread.

[hybridy]

Think about that demand that will be needed. We have no where near that number of hospital beds, or medical staff, or IV bags, etc.

Those patients should be in Airborne Isolation rooms. That means 100% negative airflow ALL THE TIME. If not, they risk cross contamination, and hospital-acquired infections are a HUGE problem. If I am building a hospital with 100 beds, I typically only build about 5 of those as Airborne Isolation rooms. Translation: Hospitals will have a very hard time handling a lot of critically ill patients who need to be in isolation.

[ASilvaman]

That's right. My math stinks so I have this handy, easy-to-use percent calculator bookmarked for regular use:

percentagecalculator.net

I have to admit I'm pretty bad at dealing with percentages. I have been looking for a calculator like this for awhile now. I really appreciate the link, and I promise my percentages will be on point from this point forward.

[bust]

I have to admit I'm pretty bad at dealing with percentages. I have been looking for a calculator like this for awhile now. I really appreciate the link, and I promise my percentages will be on point from this point forward.

You would have been close to right if you were applying those estimates to the US population. Even a bit too optimistic. 2% of 70% of 327 million = 4.6 million. That's what I thought you were doing.