Corona Virus Crisis Discussion Thread

[jcole]

I could be wrong, but aren't they a sovereign nation on their own land?

So the governor can order every other type of business to close but not an Indian-owned one? Can she not request the Federal Gov't order them closed?

[401don]

This is pretty good. Social distancing advice from Arnold's kitchen:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/arnold-...ne-california/

[Johnnny5]

I could be wrong, but aren't they a sovereign nation on their own land?

They are, but I highly doubt they'll want to push the issue if the Governor asks them to close. Not to mention the fact that many of the employees at their casinos are tribe members, and probably not too keen about being exposing them to this outbreak. If they're not closed already, they will be tomorrow after their meeting.

[DeLemur]

Dr. Anthony Fauci is pretty much the only one pushing this that hard. The reality is,. the death rate is VASTLY lower than his scare mongering would have you believe.

I know a lot of people in China. First thing to know is, China's tests were only 30% accurate until a month ago. So they were sending people home with false negative diagnosis only to infect others. Also,.. that vastly lowered the number of people with "confirmed" cases. Second,.. much of the southern half of China still does not have or use heat. So dirty water, cold home, shared toilet, poor sanitation, etc. Not good for fighting off a flu.

MOST importantly,.. there are millions with Covid-19 there that haven't been tested. So when you have no clue how many people have it,.. you cannot determine a death rate. The bodies lie there until you count them,.. but the millions that get mild flu symptoms and are fine in a week are impossible to know and count.

South Korea is the best data we have so far [[They've tested 250,000 or so as of Mar 13 [[and are testing 10,000 + a day), and have a fairly advanced medical system comparable to ours),.. and it seems their death rate of "confirmed" cases is something like 0.9%. But it is estimated the number might be more like 0.5% if everyone in the country had gootten a test every week. The 14% or 5% numbers are just total nonsense.

Also,. the test only works while someone is shedding. So once symptoms begin,.. to when they end. If you test someone a week after they recover,.. they will show as not having had it. Making the true numbers even more impossible to know.

So if 0.5% is anywhere close to correct,.. that makes it 2.5 x deadlier than the flu [[which is about 0.2%). Nothing to sneeze at for sure,.. but how many people do you know that die from the flu each year? I've never known one,.. and the flu is every year.

We're doing the right thing,.... keep some distance,.. work from home if you can, close nursing homes to visitors etc,.. but this Fauci guy is almost certainly going to look like a clown in 3 months.

Where are you getting this .9% death rate from Korea? Everything I've been reading puts it at 2-3%, more like 10-20 times the rate of death from the flu.

Furthermore it has a higher transmission rate than the flu, around 2.3 additional people infected per case, while the flu is just over 1.

When considering the death rate, if you then consider a better healthcare system in Korea than in the U.S. you have to factor in an overwhelmed healthcare system which would increase the death rate. The Lombardi region of Italy is one of its wealthiest, though I do not know its healthcare system it has had to put up tents on the perimeter of many hospitals to handle extra patients and according to the Telegraph [[UK) a regional government document considered not accepting patients above 80 years old due to the incapacity. This is to say nothing of healthcare workers who may perish from COVID-19, further increasing the death rate of patients.

[Lowell]

I haven't heard anything definitive about the death rate resulting from Covid19 but in following the Johns Hopkins tracking site, which lists the number of death and the number of recoveries, I've noticed what appears to be a disturbing trend upward in the mortality rate.

Maybe there is an explanation, as this is ~not~ scientific, just an observation, but in screen snapping it over the last couple of days it appears so. Maybe the Chinese have had better recovery rates and the rest of the world, with varying degrees of preparedness, is not getting the same results.

Here is midday on the 14th.


And just now.

[Colombian Dan]

This virus originated in China apparently due to unhygienic conditions that are culturally accepted there. I'm all for bringing back the logistics closer to home and letting the Chinese live with their chosen path.

[royce]

Here's my concern about the virus. So you self-quarantine for two/three weeks. Everybody goes back to work or school after the two/three weeks. If someone develops the virus prior to returning to work/school and goes back to work/school sick and spreads the virus, wouldn't that work site or school have to shut down again for another two/three weeks? And then, wouldn't another quarantine be necessary if someone else goes back to work or school sick? When would it finally be safe to return to work or school?

Also, I understand the need to not overwhelm hospitals, but wouldn't it hypothetically make more sense in the long run to expose as many people as possible to the virus so that they could build antibodies to it so that when someone did come back to work or school with the virus, they wouldn't be a risk to everyone because everyone would be immune?

[Zacha341]

^^^ I keep hearing it's the issue of the ventilators [[lack of), and hospital beds [[not enough of) that is the reasoning for wanting to keep the numbers down or wanting to flatten the increase.

[Zacha341]

DDOT says bus service is limited...

https://detroitmi.gov/departments/de.../bus-schedules

[Lowell]

^^^WDET is reporting that all bus service is canceled today while driver concerns are addressed.

[Bigdd]

I haven't heard anything definitive about the death rate resulting from Covid19 but in following the Johns Hopkins tracking site, which lists the number of death and the number of recoveries, I've noticed what appears to be a disturbing trend upward in the mortality rate.

Maybe there is an explanation, as this is ~not~ scientific, just an observation,

To KNOW the true death rate number you MUST know how many people total were affected.

And we CANNOT ever know that.


The death numbers and recovered numbers are of people that got tested [[and probably even went to the hospital). What about the tens or hundreds of thousands that didn't get tested? [[Most experience mild flu-like symptoms.)

So if 100,0000 people who had it didn't get tested, and then recovered,.. than that 0.8% number becomes 0.4%.

We'll just never know.

[401don]

Here's my concern about the virus. So you self-quarantine for two/three weeks. Everybody goes back to work or school after the two/three weeks. If someone develops the virus prior to returning to work/school and goes back to work/school sick and spreads the virus, wouldn't that work site or school have to shut down again for another two/three weeks? And then, wouldn't another quarantine be necessary if someone else goes back to work or school sick? When would it finally be safe to return to work or school?

Also, I understand the need to not overwhelm hospitals, but wouldn't it hypothetically make more sense in the long run to expose as many people as possible to the virus so that they could build antibodies to it so that when someone did come back to work or school with the virus, they wouldn't be a risk to everyone because everyone would be immune?

No. That's like being the platoon sergeant who says let's send 20 guys running toward that machine gunner because he can't shoot them all.

[DeLemur]

To KNOW the true death rate number you MUST know how many people total were affected.

And we CANNOT ever know that.


The death numbers and recovered numbers are of people that got tested [[and probably even went to the hospital). What about the tens or hundreds of thousands that didn't get tested? [[Most experience mild flu-like symptoms.)

So if 100,0000 people who had it didn't get tested, and then recovered,.. than that 8% number becomes 4%.

We'll just never know.

Good point. That variable can apply to any disease, since you never know the true infection rate. Perhaps for Covid-19 we really really don't know the rate of infection.

[Lowell]

Expect more of this as the days pass. A Ford Plant in Spain has closed down after an employee contracted Covid19. VW just today announced that German VW plants will shut down for three weeks. On the brighter side all but two Chinese auto plants have reopened.

This will be a further threat to the economy as workers stay away, like the Detroit bus drivers today, or miss work from the illness or necessity of quarantining.

Leaders of UAW Local 600 at Ford Motor Co.'s Dearborn Truck Plant said they filed a written grievance against Ford on Sunday asking the company to idle the plant for two weeks.

Burkie Morris, UAW plant chairman at the Dearborn plant, confirmed the filing of the grievance.

It also asks for enhanced sanitation and cleaning in the plant, while some workers talk about walking off the job there over fear of coronavirus.

https://freep-mi.newsmemory.com/?pub...cfeb46_13435a1

[Bigdd]

It may also be that blood type has something to do with it.

Reports coming out of China [[which are always to be taken with a fair degree of skepticism), seem to indicate people with Type-A blood are MORE vulnerable than average to Covid-19,.. and people with Type-O are LESS vulnerable. [[So more or less vulnerable than people with type-b?).

Would be interesting to see if any other countries can chime in on that.

[401don]

Good point. That variable can apply to any disease, since you never know the true infection rate. Perhaps for Covid-19 we really really don't know the rate of infection.

I think over time the health care statisticians will be able to get a very good estimate of how many people in a given population/time period, etc. are infected without showing symptoms or being tested and can factor that into an accurate overall infection rate.

[DeLemur]

Astonishing that the state of Michigan can't test more than 200 people a day. If you want to read more about the testing debacle in the U.S. and how our leaders so greatly screwed it up see here. Apparently Trump and company wanted to use our own test and not the World Health Organizations. Thanks for the delay, guys. Oh and thanks for firing the Pandemic team in 2018.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...failure-123166

Sorry, let's not talk about our realty tv star president. keep it back on Detroit and Michigan. Great story on the challenges felt by Mudgies and staff in Corktown.

https://www.freep.com/story/entertai...ms/5055753002/

[401don]

One positve thing I'm hearing repeatedly from infectious disease researchers is that it's very likely effective viral drugs will be ready ahead of a vaccine. They are already testing variations of ebola drugs. Existing drugs with slight variations can be developed and used on patients quickly and safely without all the testing required for a vaccine. This won't get us through the pandemic much quicker but could dramatically cut the death rate.

[softailrider]

You may not agree with guns and have little respect for those who practice the right to own them,but until you witness what happens when people become desperate and the lengths they will go to.

Look at what has happened with toilet paper,there is a segment of society that will not think twice about using any means necessary in order to acquire what you have if they want it.

There are plenty that will take advantage of this situation and exploit it with no qualms.

We are no longer a country of kumbya,the 1970s NYC blackout everybody broke out with block parties and made the best of it,the next one was marred by massive looting and people exploiting the situation.

If you least trust those who wish to employ means in which to protect their family on all fronts should it deem necessary,it shows where your mind is.

You can bet if your family is under duress and being exploited by somebody,the only person that can help you will be somebody else with a gun.

You can try telling people that you have a gun free zone residence and even post a sign outside stating so as a deterrent and depend on that.

Most here have taken steps in order to secure their families well being but you can bet there are millions that have not.All it takes is one.

I'm an ardent supporter of the 2nd amendment, but if society breaks down and there are people out there who really want your stuff, unfortunately they’re probably going to get it, doesn’t matter if it’s gold coins, currency or cans of soup. Does that mean I would even think of living unarmed? No I wouldn’t.

[jcole]

I have been saying this til I'm blue in the face. Thank you.

To KNOW the true death rate number you MUST know how many people total were affected.

And we CANNOT ever know that.


The death numbers and recovered numbers are of people that got tested [[and probably even went to the hospital). What about the tens or hundreds of thousands that didn't get tested? [[Most experience mild flu-like symptoms.)

So if 100,0000 people who had it didn't get tested, and then recovered,.. than that 0.8% number becomes 0.4%.

We'll just never know.

[Bigdd]

Astonishing that the state of Michigan can't test more than 200 people a day. If you want to read more about the testing debacle in the U.S. and how our leaders so greatly screwed it up see here. Apparently Trump and company wanted to use our own test and not the World Health Organizations. Thanks for the delay, guys. Oh and thanks for firing the Pandemic team in 2018.

Our medical system is in some ways a hot mess.

Everything is geared for the profit of the health-care system,.. and for collecting data [[for government and insurance industry databases).

So to get even simple tests,.. they insist you make an appointment to see a doctor, pay office fees, give them your name, addy, Soc Sec number, etc, etc. Then you might even have to go BACK to the doctors office, pay for a second visit just to hear the results. And even then you might not be allowed to have a copy for your records. That makes a simple $20 test into a $500 thing that takes a week or more.

Try to get a sleep study, blood test etc in the USA without going through all that? Nearly impossible.


And a shortage of Covid-19 test kits isn't the issue [[a test kit is basically a long Q-Tip in a bottle),. the issue is people being allowed to send such kits to a lab without going through all those completely unnecessary, time-consuming and costly steps. And what labs are "authorized" to do them. CDC rules meant until recently, ONLY the CDC lab could do the work. But there are hundreds of labs [[including most universities) that can run a sample.

This pandemic "might" finally take the handcuffs off our medical system. For what we pay,.. it should be FAR better. Should easily be 2x better than any other country.

FINALLY some states are starting to do drive-through testing.

[Canadian Visitor]

With over 7.9 billion people on Earth. Most nations are not ready to handle this kind of pandemic. This is what the world nations do to handle a pandemic of the keeps on infecting up to million people or more:

1. Each nation is to advise an their own nationwide quarantine procedures. Lock the whole nation up. No one should leave in or out of the area. Install military based curfews. Only open food and supply stores. Make sure that each person gets only 5 to 10 goods to last about 4 weeks at a time. All public events are closed!!!

2. Close all travel, public transportation, even international travel. Car travel will be limited as gas stations are closed for one week at a time.

3. Keep updates for news and information. If the electricity is shut off, make due whatever you can to obtain information from the outside world until power is restored.

4. If you're sick or have any health problems, go out of the alert any military personal about your sicknesses and remain in that area until medic teams arrive.


It sounds like a difficult plan but the Chinese and the Italians are doing these procedures right now.

There are some problems with this. Restricting casual, non-essential travel makes all kinds of sense.

But blanket bans do not.

For instance, the Canadian and U.S. beef industries are seemless integrated with cows and slaughtered meat shipped in vast quantities between our 2 nations.

Energy exports from Canada help keep the lights on in the U.S. north-east and in Washington in particular.

While Canada gets much of its seasonal produce at this time of year from the U.S. south and California, just like Michigan.

Likewise, many manufactures, including those who make medicine and medical equipment have cross-border supply chains.

Yes, travel should be restricted, but blanket bans aren't merely unworkable, they'd be hugely dangerous.

***

The E-U, among other places globally, has similar economic integration and food supply integration that cannot be un-done on a whim.

[Richard]

The study does not report any deaths in children under the age of 10, who represent less than 1% of patients. Patients aged 10 to 19 are as likely to die as those in their 30s. In contrast, patients in their 50s are about three times more likely to die than those in their 40s.
The risk of mortality would be significantly higher in patients over the age of 70, probably because many of them have pre-existing health problems. Patients with coronavirus and heart disease, for example, would have a death rate of around 10%, according to the study, while those with diabetes would have a death rate of around 7%.

https://newsobservatory.com/here-are...-by-age-group/

Lots of charts there.

The death rate jumps from age 60 and up,which stands to reason sense we have been telling the younger generations to get off of our grass for a long time.

Really if one is going to quarantine it should be us that are 60 and older,which we could probably use the break anyways.

[Lowell]

Kindly keep this thread about the Corona Virus Crisis as it relates to the Detroit-Windsor Metropolis.

If you wish to discuss politics please do it in the Non Detroit forum thread Coronavirus: Threat Beyond Politics as viruses don't discriminate...

If you are looking for your missing posts you will find them over there.

[Bigdd]

The lack of buss service is gonna be a disaster for Detroit. Roughly 1/2 of my customers rely on the buses to get to work.


On another note, John Hopkins released a study yesterday? that claims 86% of people infected aren't ever aware they have it. Does that mean we take the 0.9% death rate [[using S. Korea as an example) and multiply it by 0.14 to get 0.0126 as a death rate [[Flu is 0.018 by comparison)

I.E does this mean it's 2/3 as deadly as the yearly flu?

Flu has a season, and kills 250,000 - 650,000 every year world-wide [[mostly between Nov and March). This Covid-19 thing has killed 7,992 so far world-wide, or about 1 - 3% of the normal number of people we loose every year to the flu.

If so, [[and that's a big "if" I realize) the economic devastation may VASTLY outweigh the damage from the virus itself.