Ferguson Effect?

[bust]

There are many factors that explain the dramatic reduction in crime New York began experiencing in the mid 90's, and which accelerated after the turn of the century. Here are two I think have been underrepresented in common discourse:

1) The change in preference among urban youth in the 90's from crack to pot. People high on pot are rarely ever violent; crackheads often are.

2) 9/11. The city dramatically changed after that tragedy. There was a palpable sense we were all common victims and in it together. That dramatically changed our behavior toward each other for the better.

Unfortunately, kids today have more access to many more choices for their high, from bath salts to meth to "synthetic marijuana". These lead to much worse behavior.

Meanwhile, people today of the ages most likely to commit crimes are too young to have been affected much by 9/11, and do not share that bond with their fellow New Yorkers.

Giuliani's time in office happened to have occurred during the period when young people from the suburbs reversed historical trends and began moving into cities en masse. New York was one of the primary beneficiaries. Count me among those who arrived there near the beginning of Giuliani's administration, even while my first stint there predated him.

Something else: I've read no research on the subject, but it seems that gangs have recently become a bigger problem across the nation as a whole. They seem worse in New York, worse in Detroit, and a problem now even in small towns and rural locations like in the Poconos.

It's of course a highly complicated situation, and there are no easy explanations. But Giuliani received far too much credit for New York's reduction in crime. De Blasio has seen far too much blame for the signs it may recently be increasing. And Bratton is the Police Commissioner who served both administrations.

I doubt Ferguson is the explanation either. There has been a preponderance of recent evidence -- and from places besides Ferguson -- that police cannot always be trusted. And there are now many more people who are skeptical of police than there were before. Does this greater scrutiny prevent police from being effective? It doesn't seem like it should, at least not when they're doing their job correctly. If the police believe otherwise, I'm curious to hear from them how that's so. And if so, it'd be one piece among many in a big puzzle.