Quote Originally Posted by corktownyuppie View Post
This is all true.

There are essentially 5 different "Detroit" components in conflict:

- People who live here
- People who work for the city
- People who lent money to the city
- People who are retired and receiving city pension/medical benefits
- People who were elected to represent the city

They're not all going to make it through this, and it's going to be ugly. It doesn't matter whether or not we go through an EM or a bankruptcy judge. Both entities will likely look to the restructuring work done as per the city/state agreements done yesterday and use them as a model to help guide the process. I think an EM will be faster and far less expensive [[leaving more money on the table for everyone to work with), but I know a bankruptcy process will also solve some of the political dynamics that poison the process.

I'm actually optimistic for two reasons:

[[1) When the bankruptcy court starts really dropping the hammer, it might might motivate a last-second deal among all the parties. Maybe.

[[2) Either way, Detroit emerges from the whole thing with restructured major debts and having shed tons and tons and tons of needless expense. The process might take 5 years, but still...5 years ain't nothin. We've been waiting for this day 30+ years. What's 5 more years, especially, as local leaders get their asses handed to them in the process.

Finally, for people with economic power and secure jobs, start hoarding cash. It's going to be bargain basement time for a few years while we're stripping away all this excess cost structure.

From the perspective of an investor, Detroit has 3 major risks: [[1) Crime, [[2) Uncertainty, [[3) High Costs and Low Services. As department after department gets totally decimated, people who have the resources to deploy capital and resources quickly and efficiently will replace a bloated city government. Uncertainty will gradually be replaced with certainty. High Costs and Low Services will be replaced with Low Costs and Low Services. The only major risk left will be crime, and we have already proven that with enough resources, can quickly become a non-issue.

The end result out of all this 10 years from now will be healthier Detroit with all the weeds pulled and good, healthy soil from which to grow. In the process you will piss off thousands of retirees [[many of whom no longer live in Michigan), many of the citizens [[many of whom are already pissed anyway), all the elected officials [[who deserve to go down with the ship), and tons of lenders.

Everyone will lose in different degrees, including me and my family, who have financial ties to the city's solvency...but you will have completely destroyed the political culture that has held the city back for decades. Is it worth it to go through 5 years of wanton destruction, including 60-70% unemployment in order to be able to finally start over and build a healthy city?

Well...a) we don't have a choice, it's gonna happen either way...and b) Yes. Totally worth it.
Nothing's going to change for a LONG time, other then lawyers involved with this are going to get richer from the drawn out court battles. People who chose to dig in for the long term are the ones going to get hurt, as property values and personal safety continue to decline. Of course, you can always continue to keep sinking your money into the Detroit Phoenix that's going to rise out of the ashes, one day, maybe.