About Detroit's future.

[beachboy]

I'm curious what you folks see in the reasonably near future for Detroit. What does Detroit need? Realistically.What is probably going to happen and what will the effects be. No easy solutions

Perhaps we could consider Detroit's strength that has, historically, been heavy-industrial manufacturing... What current trends could affect industrial growth?

Trend 1 - Industrial Employment Decline: Until offshoring began in earnest approx. 15 years ago, most US industrial job losses were due to robotization [[a.k.a. automation or mechanization). Technology marches on ... robotization and offshoring, excessive regulation and [[on the horizon) higher taxes will further affect US industry, with probable employment decreases [[unless rising energy and labor costs offshore favor a return of industry to the US).



Trend 2 - Demographic Decline: The "Boomer bulge" is moving thru the python, so to speak. As the US population ages, consider the consumption trends that fueled industrial prosperity over the past 40 years of Boomeria. Bigger homes, more cars, more clothes, more vacations, more, more ... much of that in decline, now, as Boomeria ages. Alas, Boomers haven't saved as well as Mom & Dad. So the consumption patterns will not favor "more". This will impact industrial employment .. downward.



Trend 3 - Wage Decline: Real wages have decreased significantly as a portion of GDP:


This means that people have less to spend as a portion of the national product. Less disposable income = less consumption = less industrial production = less industrial employment. Where is the prosperity?

Trend 4 - Worldwide Deflation: Due in large part to industrial overcapacity, and due in part to de-leveraging of government debt, deflation continues to drive a downward price-wage spiral. This means lower prices <=> lower wages, and consequently reduced prosperity. See the preceding paragraph for the effect.



Can we ask a few questions related to growth of wealth?

Q1: In the presence of the above-listed trends, how can Detroit grow its industrial base and dependent manufacturing sectors [[e.g., parts suppliers, maintenance, etc.)? Without a strong, growing industrial base where will Detroit's much-needed growth of wealth come from? If there is no growth in wealth, where will the tax monies come from to refurbish and enhance Detroit's infrastructure?

Q2: If the underlying stability of manufacturing industries is not present, what will Detroit use to generate the wealth needed to support refurbishment of a decaying infrastructure? Without a sound infrastructure, what is the long-term prospect for industrial [[or other business) growth?

Q3: What about the cultural influences on crime? If Detroit remains a dangerous place to live, how many more wealth-generating people will want to live here? Where will population growth come from? And how much money will these immigrants have?

Just some thoughts and questions late Sunday nite [[early Monday a.m.)

What are your thoughts?