SkyTran offers Detroit new idea for mass transit

[Hermod]

To add to the rush hour thing, how many "docks" will there be to supply pods as people stream out of the RenCen? What happens when the people stream out of a baseball or football game? How long will you have to wait for a pod?

[Vox]

To add to the rush hour thing, how many "docks" will there be to supply pods as people stream out of the RenCen? What happens when the people stream out of a baseball or football game? How long will you have to wait for a pod?

Don't worry, they can always get on the magnificent light rail system, to get them to Grand Boulevard, where they can catch a bus outbound.

[mikeg19]

Was listening to 97.1 yesterday and this was a pretty big topic. I'd probably say I'm not particularly for this as I haven't seen the presentation or videos, but like they were saying on the radio, why hasn't anyone from Detroit regarding transportation at least heard this pitch? When someone comes along and says " hey instead of using $520 million to build mass transit in your city, let me do it for free" wouldn't it at least peak your interest? Now I'm sure there are variables and other details that are not out on this system yet, including how big of a "free" system would be built here or what the city would be on the hook for as far as yearly upkeep, but I think this guy should at least be able to pitch his idea to the city.

I thought this "New" Detroit was supposed to be progressive and innovative with urban farming and new technology, yet it seems like it's still tied to the traditional rational that led us to collapse in the first place.

[EL Jimbo]

Was listening to 97.1 yesterday and this was a pretty big topic. I'd probably say I'm not particularly for this as I haven't seen the presentation or videos, but like they were saying on the radio, why hasn't anyone from Detroit regarding transportation at least heard this pitch? When someone comes along and says " hey instead of using $520 million to build mass transit in your city, let me do it for free" wouldn't it at least peak your interest? Now I'm sure there are variables and other details that are not out on this system yet, including how big of a "free" system would be built here or what the city would be on the hook for as far as yearly upkeep, but I think this guy should at least be able to pitch his idea to the city.

I thought this "New" Detroit was supposed to be progressive and innovative with urban farming and new technology, yet it seems like it's still tied to the traditional rational that led us to collapse in the first place.

The reason for this is that, unlike sports radio guys like Doug Karsch, Scott "the Gator" Anderson, Terry Foster, and Mike Valenti, transportation professionals have already heard of the shell game this company is trying to pull. They have, in various forms, having been trying to sell this same line of crap since 1999 to various places across the country.

It's a known sham operation that isn't even credible enough for a sit down meeting anymore.

[RO_Resident]

Was listening to 97.1 yesterday and this was a pretty big topic. I'd probably say I'm not particularly for this as I haven't seen the presentation or videos, but like they were saying on the radio, why hasn't anyone from Detroit regarding transportation at least heard this pitch? When someone comes along and says " hey instead of using $520 million to build mass transit in your city, let me do it for free" wouldn't it at least peak your interest? Now I'm sure there are variables and other details that are not out on this system yet, including how big of a "free" system would be built here or what the city would be on the hook for as far as yearly upkeep, but I think this guy should at least be able to pitch his idea to the city.

This SkyTran is more like the guy that approaches you in the Meijer parking lot and offers you a great deal on excess speaker stock from the back of his white van. You know, the $1,500 speakers for $150.

A rational person isn't surprised when get home and find the 'Somy' speakers are full of rocks.

[mikeg19]

This SkyTran is more like the guy that approaches you in the Meijer parking lot and offers you a great deal on excess speaker stock from the back of his white van. You know, the $1,500 speakers for $150.

A rational person isn't surprised when get home and find the 'Somy' speakers are full of rocks.

Oh, don't get me wrong. I think this whole idea is a bit of a sham. But to not even here a pitch seems kinda awkward to me. Unless this idea is so incredibly far fetched that it would be a complete waste of time.

[EL Jimbo]

Unless this idea is so incredibly far fetched that it would be a complete waste of time.

Bingo! That's it.

[fryar]

A fantastic idea. After all, Masdar City - a surefire success story in pioneering methods of urban design, any way you look at it - is planning on using PRT!

I say, pay no attention to those pitching an urban transport system based on Ginger, I mean the Segway... shame on them. PRT is a far more reasonable system. The future is now, people!

Next up, let's discuss my idea for a project to build some luxury lofts on an artificial archipelago in the shape of an Apple Blossom out in the river, a sort of Detroit version of the Palms. I am currently pitching the idea to the Freep.

That's two sensible, realistic, proven ideas for Detroit's revitalization that are based directly on existing pie-in-the-sky vanity projects by Persian Gulf royalty. Bonus!

Implementing functional, well-designed mass transit is make or break for Detroit, in my [[and many others') opinion. With regard to this idea, my money - based on the game-changing novelty of the idea and the company it keeps [[that's you, Masdar City) - is on break. It does sound cool, but make some other city that can more easily weather the storm of failure the guinea pig. We know our way around plain-jane mass transit quite well, and while it holds none of the excitement of a hail Mary pass, properly executed fundamentals are more likely to lead to touchdowns.

[jtf1972]

By the way... Am I the only person wondering if davewindsor's account has been hacked by the PR wing of SkySham?

[Hermod]

I just can not wrap my head around the idea that the cars will be turned around as quickly as Dave thinks. A car is programmed into a destination. It pulls up to the dock. Big mama gets out, pulls her two kids out, starts to collect all of her bags, shawls, the kids toys, etc. All of this has to occur before the pod shuffles down the line for you to get on and take the car elsewhere. Unless the number of separate docks at each station is a healthy percentage of the pods in service, you are going to have to wait for Big mama to slowly exit her car.

I can foresee each station taking up quite a bit of real estate. I can see the lines at each station for people trying to enter the system approaching the lines for rides at a Disney or other theme park. To carry rush hour traffic [[assuming that the system is so wonderful that it generates a lot of ridership), you will have to have a car going overhead about one every two seconds [[at 1.5 riders per pod) . No way will one hundred pods ever cut it.

Even if you assume even distribution of destinations over ten destinations [[which won't be the case), you will have a car roaring into a station every twenty seconds. If it takes two minutes to unload a car at the entrance and two minutes to load a car at the exit, you will need twelve parallel docks per station and even then you will have queuing from "surges" in the line where your pod has to wait for a dock.

The problem is that you will not have an equal distribution of origins and destinations nor will you have an equal distribution of direction of traffic during the rush hours. Assume 2400 passengers per hour at 1.5 passengers per pod in one direction with four minutes station dwell time and a ten mile route at 150 mph. You are looking at a turnaround time of abut 12 minutes per car or five trips per hour per car. You need 1600 trips per hour. That translates into 320 pods on the line even if the system operates at peak efficiency which is a single long trip per car. If there are multiple pickup points and destinations during rush hour, you will have to go above 320 pods in service to handle rush hour.

Lets say we can get by with 400 pods in service as the ultimate peak rush hour load for a ten mile line. If we have 95% operational availability [[high) we need 421 pods for the system. If normal operations require 100 pods [[your guess), where do the other 321 pods live while they are idle?

While the actual line won't eat up much space, the load/unload stations and the dispatch yards will be massive.

[davewindsor]

I just can not wrap my head around the idea that the cars will be turned around as quickly as Dave thinks. .

Take it up with the powerhouse of engineers at NASA if you think you're smarter than NASA.

[j to the jeremy]

Take it up with the powerhouse of engineers at NASA if you think you're smarter than NASA.

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/nasalife/.../unimodal.html

OK, if you read the NASA article, they explain that they were just testing some software using Unimodal. They wanted to know effects of rapid acceleration, jerking, etc in a grounded transit system. NASA didn't do any work at all involving planning, engineering, or design. Skytran got to use their software and write up a great press release. And note, even NASA admitted that all of the Skytran stuff was "in the future".

To conclude, please stop saying that NASA is helping with engineering. They provided test software for the test track.

[davewindsor]

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/nasalife/.../unimodal.html

OK, if you read the NASA article, they explain that they were just testing some software using Unimodal. They wanted to know effects of rapid acceleration, jerking, etc in a grounded transit system. NASA didn't do any work at all involving planning, engineering, or design. Skytran got to use their software and write up a great press release. And note, even NASA admitted that all of the Skytran stuff was "in the future".

To conclude, please stop saying that NASA is helping with engineering. They provided test software for the test track.

Once again, you missed half the article. Read the rest of it: “We’re working with NASA and aerospace engineers to ensure aerospace-level standards that exceed the safety records of current transportation systems,” explained Christopher Perkins, chief executive officer of Unimodal Systems, LLC, based in NASA Research Park

It's not just software. What does working with NASA to ensure aerospace-level standards mean to you? Helping with it's engineering to ensure aerospace-level standards??? NASA is not getting to let them use their patents if SkyTran is delivering a substandard product. They have to meet NASA standards before NASA is going to let their name be used. NASA is brand like any high quality marketable product. If they are backing crap, it's going to ruin NASAs reputation. So, they are not going to back crap. NASA engineers are going require it's physical modification if it looks shoddy or dangerous. Think about it.

[Hermod]

NASA is brand like any high quality marketable product. If they are backing crap, it's going to ruin NASAs reputation. So, they are not going to back crap. NASA engineers are going require it's physical modification if it looks shoddy or dangerous. Think about it.

NASA = Challenger

Q: What do NASA, Tylenol, and an old walrus have in common?
A: They are all looking for a tight seal.

Q: How do you make a Challenger cocktail?
A: Seven up and a splash of Teacher's.

:

[Hermod]

Take it up with the powerhouse of engineers at NASA if you think you're smarter than NASA.

Given the quality of the last engineer we hired from NASA, you don't fill me with confidence.

I would rather hire an engineer from a Disney theme park. They at least have some idea of queuing theory, rates of service, optimal allocation, etc.

[professorscott]

Given the quality of the last engineer we hired from NASA, you don't fill me with confidence.

I would rather hire an engineer from a Disney theme park. They at least have some idea of queuing theory, rates of service, optimal allocation, etc.

That's an interesting point. On the assumption [[not unreasonable) that NASA engineers are very smart people, that doesn't mean they are good at things outside their expertise. Sending three or six or ten people at a time into space in a multibillion dollar one-use craft, or an unmanned probe out to the deKuiper belt, is a different kind of engineering challenge than getting one hundred thousand people to work in the morning.

Disney, since you mentioned it, has excellent transit service at the Disney World complex in Florida. We [[family and I) have been there several times; when we get to where we're staying we park the car and don't start it again until we leave. So I agree, for this purpose Disney has much more relevant experience than NASA.

[professorscott]

I just can not wrap my head around the idea that the cars will be turned around as quickly as Dave thinks. A car is programmed into a destination. It pulls up to the dock. Big mama gets out, pulls her two kids out, starts to collect all of her bags, shawls, the kids toys, etc. All of this has to occur before the pod shuffles down the line for you to get on and take the car elsewhere. Unless the number of separate docks at each station is a healthy percentage of the pods in service, you are going to have to wait for Big mama to slowly exit her car.

I can foresee each station taking up quite a bit of real estate. I can see the lines at each station for people trying to enter the system approaching the lines for rides at a Disney or other theme park. To carry rush hour traffic [[assuming that the system is so wonderful that it generates a lot of ridership), you will have to have a car going overhead about one every two seconds [[at 1.5 riders per pod) . No way will one hundred pods ever cut it.

Even if you assume even distribution of destinations over ten destinations [[which won't be the case), you will have a car roaring into a station every twenty seconds. If it takes two minutes to unload a car at the entrance and two minutes to load a car at the exit, you will need twelve parallel docks per station and even then you will have queuing from "surges" in the line where your pod has to wait for a dock.

The problem is that you will not have an equal distribution of origins and destinations nor will you have an equal distribution of direction of traffic during the rush hours. Assume 2400 passengers per hour at 1.5 passengers per pod in one direction with four minutes station dwell time and a ten mile route at 150 mph. You are looking at a turnaround time of abut 12 minutes per car or five trips per hour per car. You need 1600 trips per hour. That translates into 320 pods on the line even if the system operates at peak efficiency which is a single long trip per car. If there are multiple pickup points and destinations during rush hour, you will have to go above 320 pods in service to handle rush hour.

Lets say we can get by with 400 pods in service as the ultimate peak rush hour load for a ten mile line. If we have 95% operational availability [[high) we need 421 pods for the system. If normal operations require 100 pods [[your guess), where do the other 321 pods live while they are idle?

While the actual line won't eat up much space, the load/unload stations and the dispatch yards will be massive.

Well done, Hermod. This is a pretty good approximation, in easily understood terms, of the engineering calculations which prove the system can't actually work. That is to say, it can move people around, but it can't move enough people to justify the cost of building it.

You realize this thread has just become a succession of:
Dave from Windsor: But NASA participated!
Someone else: [[Makes a point)
Dave: But NASA participated!
[[etc.)

[leady106]

How about having the Casinos first test out the system. Have a line that connects MGM Grand to the Motorcity Casino thru the DPM stop by the Rosa Parks Transit Center. This way you could start a line on Grand River and Michigan to see the future viabliliy of this system and if it could be expanded. Casino/casino hotel patrons are more likely to pay the higher fare while connecting to the rest of Downtown with the people mover. This would also give gamers easier access to the other casinos and to the other non-gaming amenities to help share the wealth with the rest of downtown businesses.

[Detroitnerd]

Well, Hermod. It finally happened. We agreed on something. [shakes hand]

[Hermod]

Well, Hermod. It finally happened. We agreed on something. [shakes hand]

While we each have our own "reality" we can both recognize fantasy when we see it.

[Detroitnerd]

While we each have our own "reality" we can both recognize fantasy when we see it.

Now there I disagree with you!

Just kidding. Well put.

[jtf1972]

At least this would be an extremely fuel efficient and environmentally friendly form of transit. We'll soon all be zooming back and forth all over the city on snake oil!

[Gistok]

OK genius... nice try at manipulating numbers again... [[just like with your absurd comparisons with the downtown populations compared to the Medical Center and Ford Hospital/Cadillac Place, but you must have accidentally forgotten about that dumb comment).

At what time were you downtown taking all these photographs? It does matter because of something known as rush hour. It's easy getting in and out of downtown at 2PM... but try 5PM... and I bet those buses were a lot busier at 5PM... but you didn't say, did you?

Yes I saw that post was from 2006... but remember also that with both Quicken and Blue Cross are or have added 4,700 people to downtown. Yes, the Stott and Book Towers are empty... but the Book Cadillac and Fort Shelby are NOT... the Comerica Tower is NOT empty as you say... they ONLY moved 200 people to Texas... the rest they moved over to their Fort St. Building but they were only the signature tenant still lots of folks in the Comerica Tower. 8 floors of the Chase Tower have Chase employees... again not an empty tower... The Madison Building is getting new tenants... the United Artists Building is still being renovated... still not a graveyard that you make it sound. The half empty RenCen..... wrong again.... Blue Cross is doubling their downtown workforce.

Not only do you need to quit exaggerating... but you need to get your facts correct.... and even if there were only 70,000 employees downtown.... that still MANY times the number of the midtown and New Center employers that you claim.

LOL at how you equate empty buses with building occupancy....

[davewindsor]

OK genius... nice try at manipulating numbers again... [[just like with your absurd comparisons with the downtown populations compared to the Medical Center and Ford Hospital/Cadillac Place, but you must have accidentally forgotten about that dumb comment).

At what time were you downtown taking all these photographs? It does matter because of something known as rush hour. It's easy getting in and out of downtown at 2PM... but try 5PM... and I bet those buses were a lot busier at 5PM... but you didn't say, did you?

Yes I saw that post was from 2006... but remember also that with both Quicken and Blue Cross are or have added 4,700 people to downtown. Yes, the Stott and Book Towers are empty... but the Book Cadillac and Fort Shelby are NOT... the Comerica Tower is NOT empty as you say... they ONLY moved 200 people to Texas... the rest they moved over to their Fort St. Building but they were only the signature tenant still lots of folks in the Comerica Tower. 8 floors of the Chase Tower have Chase employees... again not an empty tower... The Madison Building is getting new tenants... the United Artists Building is still being renovated... still not a graveyard that you make it sound. The half empty RenCen..... wrong again.... Blue Cross is doubling their downtown workforce.

Not only do you need to quit exaggerating... but you need to get your facts correct.... and even if there were only 70,000 employees downtown.... that still MANY times the number of the midtown and New Center employers that you claim.

LOL at how you equate empty buses with building occupancy....

I'm not manipulating anything. You didn't answer my question when I asked when was the last time you were there. And I told you I was along Woodward from 4:30pm. I was still there till a little bit after 5:15pm today. I have absolutely no idea what you're talking about with a Woodward Ave rush hour because there wasn't one. I have the pictures to prove it. Do you have pictures to prove this non existent rush hour along Woodward? And, no there were probably around 10 per bus around 5pm. Earlier, more like 2-5 per bus. Just a few at the bus stops along Woodward. Sorry, I don't know what you're getting at, but I was there.

Are you now claiming that there has been a net increase of 4,700 jobs? I don't even think that covers all the jobs that were lost. You didn't even answer my question about why all these skyscrapers keep going bankrupt in downtown. Buildings being renovated or getting new tenants don't count.. So now you're saying GM didn't lay off a bunch of employees in their restructuring when they dumped a bunch of product lines? I've been hearing about the renovations at the David Broderick for decades and they still haven't started building these lofts; they are still just gutting it. And why is it that a 37 storey skycraper like the David Stott is selling for only a million bucks if this real estate market is so hot from this large workforce? What about the buildings in Capitol Park with the missing windows and trees growing out of it? The Chase Tower is half empty, but I'm sure it'll be empty after the sale or Dan Gilbert will move the employees from the Compuware building to the Chase building leaving the Compuware building with huge vacancies..

Did 1,700 employees from Quicken move into Compuware or a fraction? When were the 3,000 employees supposed to move into the RenCentre this year? Show me the article that says all 3,000 Blue Cross employees are in that building now.. Where are they? I went around there after walking on Woodward and I didn't see a lot of people walking around outside. There were a lot of cars along Jefferson, but that was it.

Why couldn't they rent the Shops at Kresge if all these people are working in downtown? Why is it that when I look through the main floor window of one kennedy square it looks unfinished and unoccupied. Why are there so many for lease main storefronts along Woodward in downtown? Why is it that when I walk from Bookies to the Centaur [[with the exception of those building at the intersection of where Centaur is) I see so many abandoned high rises with missing windows?

Are you sure Comerica only has moved 200 out of the Comerica Tower? They officially announced that would completely vacate the Comerica Tower by 2012.

Sorry, if you're gonna say downtown has anywhere near 80,000 employees, I need to see some recent data from somewhere because nothing I've seen indicates that.

[Gistok]

I'm not manipulating anything. You didn't answer my question when I asked when was the last time you were there. And I told you I was along Woodward from 4:30pm. I was still there till a little bit after 5:15pm today. I have absolutely no idea what you're talking about with a Woodward Ave rush hour because there wasn't one. I have the pictures to prove it. Do you have pictures to prove this non existent rush hour along Woodward? And, no there were probably around 10 per bus around 5pm. Earlier, more like 2-5 per bus. Just a few at the bus stops along Woodward. Sorry, I don't know what you're getting at, but I was there.

Are you now claiming that there has been a net increase of 4,700 jobs? I don't even think that covers all the jobs that were lost. You didn't even answer my question about why all these skyscrapers keep going bankrupt in downtown. Buildings being renovated or getting new tenants don't count.. So now you're saying GM didn't lay off a bunch of employees in their restructuring when they dumped a bunch of product lines? I've been hearing about the renovations at the David Broderick for decades and they still haven't started building these lofts; they are still just gutting it. And why is it that a 37 storey skycraper like the David Stott is selling for only a million bucks if this real estate market is so hot from this large workforce? What about the buildings in Capitol Park with the missing windows and trees growing out of it? The Chase Tower is half empty, but I'm sure it'll be empty after the sale or Dan Gilbert will move the employees from the Compuware building to the Chase building leaving the Compuware building with huge vacancies..

Did 1,700 employees from Quicken move into Compuware or a fraction? When were the 3,000 employees supposed to move into the RenCentre this year? Show me the article that says all 3,000 Blue Cross employees are in that building now.. Where are they? I went around there after walking on Woodward and I didn't see a lot of people walking around outside. There were a lot of cars along Jefferson, but that was it.

Why couldn't they rent the Shops at Kresge if all these people are working in downtown? Why is it that when I look through the main floor window of one kennedy square it looks unfinished and unoccupied. Why are there so many for lease main storefronts along Woodward in downtown? Why is it that when I walk from Bookies to the Centaur [[with the exception of those building at the intersection of where Centaur is) I see so many abandoned high rises with missing windows?

Are you sure Comerica only has moved 200 out of the Comerica Tower? They officially announced that would completely vacate the Comerica Tower by 2012.

Sorry, if you're gonna say downtown has anywhere near 80,000 employees, I need to see some recent data from somewhere because nothing I've seen indicates that.

I'm sorry, you and your standing on Woodward [[counting bus passengers) is part of the original thread relating to whether or not Detroit needs any mass transit of any sort along Woodward. I'm not an expert on that, and I don't pretend to be. Nor did I mention anything related to the Woodward corridor traffic...

I merely called you out on your propensity to exaggerate the number of office workers in the Medical Center vs. downtown, and Ford Hospital/Cadillac Place vs. downtown. Apparently your math seems to be pointing in the wrong direction.

And you calling downtown a skyscraper graveyard [[there are indeed 48 empty buildings downtown ... but that's out of over 500)...

And on the other thread you said that the GM Tech Center in Warren is 1/2 empty.... just talked to some folks who work there and they laughed over the phone....

And when you said that Comerica moved all their folks to Dallas [[they moved 200 there, the remainder of the Comerica Tower is going to 411 W. Fort).

I usually just comment on things that I know what I'm talking about [[you won't find any transportation driven posts on this thread from me)...

...and I avoid using exaggerations... sage advice...

One last thing... if you're going to stand somewhere counting the people... I would suggest a 5PM test standing in the middle of the Chrysler, Lodge or Fisher [[no not on the freeway, you'll be dead in 2 seconds from the traffic volume... but on the overpasses...) Woodward may be Detroit's main street... but all the buildings between Campus Martius and the Francis Palms and Fox Buildings are either residential, or on their way to being developed as such.

And as for what downtown office workers on their lunch hours... I don't know about you... but by lunch time I'm hungry... I don't generally feel like shopping... In order to get more retailers downtown... you need more residential... and that's still being worked on... [[with some of those 48 buildings that you like to call a graveyard)...