Obama ready to set 35.5 mpg national average

**mjs** · May-21-09, 09:35 PM

You're mixing up Tesla with GM and the S1 with the Volt. $50,000 sounds like a price. 2011 sounds like a date. San Jose sounds like a place.

**mjs** · May-21-09, 10:41 PM

Originally Posted by Angry Dad

And how many have they delivered?

About 1/5th of the Preorders. What GM model is backlogged?

Originally Posted by ndavies

Many analysts don't believe they are going to survive long enough to build the S1.

Many or some? While President Obama says "Yes, we can", they'll always be those, that no matter the situation, will say "No, we can't". As recently as February, Tesla said it will be profitable by mid-year. As to the most outspoken critic Ed Kim, a Tesla insider says he's never been to the company's headquarters or flagship retail store nor has ever spoken with a Tesla executive or media representative. As to Randy Strauss, Tesla CEO Elon Musk flat out said "Randy Strauss is a huge douch bag."

lilpup · May-21-09, 11:01 PM

And what does Elon Musk say to the company co-found who left, who was the engineering brains behind the company, who now, after talking to Bob Lutz, realizes Detroit isn't full of idiots?

Tesla's toast, quite probably by the end of the year.

lilpup · May-21-09, 11:10 PM

Originally Posted by Sstashmoo

It's puzzling why people keep pursuing an electric vehicle. It's a dead end street. They all run into the same obstacle, the battery. The Battery on an electric vehicle is like a gas tank that holds only a few gallons, takes 8 hours to fill, Shrinks by 25% every year and costs $8k to replace every few years. The EV-1 project was a joke and was abandoned because of it.

And that's the beauty of the Volt. It's a whole different architecture that doesn't fall prey to the range problem and, because it has onboard recharging instead of relying on a one time charge, it can be built with a smaller [[and less expensive) battery pack. Also, GM knows how to mass produce while Tesla is still hand building.

Tesla, if it even survives that long, will be obsolete the minute the Volts start rolling off the line.

If GM continues developing this architecture it can eventually be applied across their entire fleet, including large vehicles, making CAFE little more than a footnote.

**PeachLaser** · May-21-09, 11:25 PM

I was at the Detroit Auto Show this year. Talked to the Univ. of Michigan Solar guys down in the basement of Cobo. That's where Detroit likes to hide these types. I know that in 1990, the Solar Raycers were reaching 70 MPH on about 100 watts. Today, they are reaching 90 MPH with improved solar array efficiency, electronics and aerodynamics. Right under our noses they are doing this stuff!

lilpup · May-21-09, 11:33 PM

Solar will never be viable that way for a car. I've followed the solar car team's progress for years. The things they do - in design, maintenance, and race management - are intense but not a long, long, long way from anything for the market.

A solar array blanket to be laid out for charging, like Lutz said the other night, would be the closest application.

**mjs** · May-21-09, 11:49 PM

Since the name, comments, and source you refer to are a secret, I assume you mean the brash Martin Eberhard who bragged about Tesla in October 2007 by saying "the way all other people started electric car companies, got in the business, was wrong. . . So they wind up with a car that's a piece of crap." Then, eight months after being pushed out of Tesla in December 2007, came back into the spotlight with blog comments such as "The JVC radio-CD player-nav system-vegematic thingy is horrible. The thing runs some Microsoft operating system [[really!), and it behaves just like you might expect" An egotistical disgruntled ex-employee said the GPS on one of the first vehicles off the line needed a reboot; the company is dead.

http://www.autobloggreen.com/2007/10...anies-are-wro/
http://www.engadget.com/2007/12/07/t...appy-about-it/
http://blogs.edmunds.com/greencaradv...-roadster.html

lilpup · May-22-09, 12:35 AM

Oh, no, if it were only that. This blog entry is much more interesting!

really - 2 nice 26 cubic-foot side-by-side refrigerators with ice makers - just while sitting, not even turned on?

**mjs** · May-22-09, 12:41 AM

Figuring reviews from Tesla owners would be enlightening, I found an interesting owner's blog. They all seem to love it and the whole thing is informative, but this thread from Martin Eberhard about being banned from the owner's blog shows how bad its gotten between him and the company. Really? He was banned for merely complaining about getting the fourth car and not for his attempts to undermine the company as the forum moderator states? Notice that the "defective" vehicle he speaks of in August 2008 was in the shop that June to repair an accident. Second link is the blog where Martin talks of sour grapes with Elon and agreeing to a nondisparage clause.

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/news-articles-events/

**mjs** · May-22-09, 01:04 AM

Originally Posted by lilpup

Oh, no, if it were only that. This blog entry is much more interesting!

really - 2 nice 26 cubic-foot side-by-side refrigerators with ice makers - just while sitting, not even turned on?

And Tesla responded on their owners website that its supposed to do that as a safety measure to protect the batteries. Is the car perfect? No. Is it a quantum leap thats still vastly more fuel efficient and less oil dependant than what the oligopolist have delivered? You bet.

These guys absolutely love Martin as a genius that invented this thing and all of them, including Martin himself, think the stories of his blog proving the car is bad are blown way out of porportion. I'm sorry I was so harsh on the guy.

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/techn...ater-pump.html

Angry Dad · May-22-09, 06:22 AM

So where are these 50K Tesla sedans?

What MJS is avoiding is that they do not exist.

There are none. Nobody has bought one. Tesla has sold none. There are no running prototypes. No mules. Nothing.

There are roadsters which are repowered Lotus Elises. Carry a half ass transmission and a cluster pack of batteries. No they don't build the car, just package the batteries.

But go on thinking this crap is salvation. It isn't. What Tesla is, is like a carny that goes from town to town sucking "investment" dollars out of pockets.

Strange that some people don't care to comment about the fraud the fuel economy legislation is.

That the standard will be "measured" not by what you will see on the sticker [[which really doesn't mean much anyways) but by "measurements" generated by EPA rules two generations past. Like when numbers cut were done so with no AC on, no electric draws, no loads in vehicles. Basically the EPA gave the manufacturers 20% to 30% in "freebies". Guess the feds know what a fraud this CAFE stuff is themselves. Too bad many of us don't or won't admit it.

**darwinism** · May-22-09, 08:51 AM

Hey, folks, we're already approaching June 2009.

Obviously, we have accounts that Tesla will be profitable at the end of the second half this year. Then, we also have accounts that Tesla will be history, out-of-business, and be all done by the end of 2009.

How about we chalk it down for the following:

Tesla lives by 12/2009 - mjs, darwinism

Tesla dies by 12/2009 - Angry Dad, Sstashmoo, ndavies, lilpup

In about 6 months, we'll call out those who make the right call, and those who make the wrong call. Simple as that.

**ndavies** · May-22-09, 09:29 AM

I don't know if they'll die by the end of the year. I will state the S1 will never reach production. Also I would not trust Tesla's cost estimates. The roadster started out being priced at $100K all options and a 5 year warranty included. The price has now been bumped up to $130K for the same configuration.

http://www.consumeraffairs.com/autom...la_motors.html

lilpup · May-22-09, 09:52 AM

Originally Posted by darwinism

Hey, folks, we're already approaching June 2009.

Obviously, we have accounts that Tesla will be profitable at the end of the second half this year. Then, we also have accounts that Tesla will be history, out-of-business, and be all done by the end of 2009.

How about we chalk it down for the following:

Tesla lives by 12/2009 - mjs, darwinism

Tesla dies by 12/2009 - Angry Dad, Sstashmoo, ndavies, lilpup

In about 6 months, we'll call out those who make the right call, and those who make the wrong call. Simple as that.

No, not Tesla lives by 12/2009, but Tesla IS PROFITABLE by 12/2009. Who knows what wealthy, unknowing fool might invest in them to keep them going [[or if Musk keeps pouring in his own money).

**mjs** · May-22-09, 10:10 AM

It's not that there's a big lie in play. The percentage increase in average mileage is about the same whether going from 21 mpg to 26 mpg on the EPA scale [[a 24 percent boost) or 27.5 mpg to 35 mpg on the CAFE scale [[a 27 percent hike). . .

Changing the EPA tests kept consumers happy, but applying the same changes to CAFE would have been a de facto boost that would have made the auto industry very unhappy. To avoid a political brouhaha, CAFE was left unaltered. . .

That may be the reason we have two sets of numbers to deal with, Edmunds says, "or it may simply be the result of two departments that have different bosses and therefore don't communicate." . . .

"A 35 mph CAFE requirement just isn't as Draconian as it seems."

http://blogs.edmunds.com/greencaradv...-its-best.html

Maybe everyone doesn't get a reply to every line they post because some are irrelevant or silly. The Big Three executives exaggerate their challenges and folks in DC talk like morons when they're actually much smarter than they sound. I don't understand how any of this argues against improving fuel efficiency requirements so I never addressed it.

As to the Model S, Tesla plans to make them in 2011. How does that support claims that its impossible to make affordable EVs in the near future or that Americans don't want EVs at any price? If I already said the plans are for 2011, how did I avoid saying they haven't been made? I thought angrydad might have been claiming to know how many Roadsters have been delivered.

They've already delivered over 200 Roadsters for 1/5th the price GM spent on the EV1. Technically the Clinton administration funded half of the EV1 while government funded none of the Tesla venture. Granted, Tesla owes much to a Clinton administration that put resources into the problem and the EV1 engineers and other auto engineers that knew what they were doing. I really do wish the Bush administration and Big Three Execs had finished what was started, but unfortunately, they left it to Tesla and the Obama administration.

**mjs** · May-22-09, 11:51 AM

ndavies and lilpup may be right in saying that Tesla won't ever produce a $50,000 EV or be profitable by the end of the year, but they may not. Even if they are right, Tesla will be profitable soon enough and someone will mass market a $50,000 EV in the next few years. Had any of the big three seriously tried to follow up on the EV1 or had the Bush administratrion followed up on the Clinton initiatives, American auto companies would now be the leaders in the profitable production of affordable EVs. And top GM execs agree.

lilpup · May-22-09, 11:57 AM

Originally Posted by mjs

ndavies and lilpup may be right in saying that Tesla won't ever produce a $50,000 EV or be profitable by the end of the year, but they may not. Even if they are right, Tesla will be profitable soon enough and someone will mass market a $50,000 EV in the next few years. Had any of the big three seriously tried to follow up on the EV1 or had the Bush administratrion followed up on the Clinton initiatives, American auto companies would now be the leaders in the profitable production of affordable EVs. And top GM execs agree.

Tesla style EVs will never command the market unless they can be cranked out for under $20,000. I doubt Tesla will ever be profitable.

**mjs** · May-22-09, 12:08 PM

Tesla commands the EV market right now. Perhaps they may not be the volume leader in coming years, but they'll still have the Roadster and ultra high end vehicle producers don't seem to have the economic struggles of the mass manufacturers. The entire thing that seperated their market concept from others was to start at the high end and then work the price down.

**PeachLaser** · May-22-09, 04:23 PM

Originally Posted by lilpup

Solar will never be viable that way for a car. I've followed the solar car team's progress for years. The things they do - in design, maintenance, and race management - are intense but not a long, long, long way from anything for the market.

A solar array blanket to be laid out for charging, like Lutz said the other night, would be the closest application.

Hi Lilpup - I agree that using solar for a daily commuter probably won't make it. But, with all of the electrics coming out, there is going to be huge need for recharging. Because of their research and application in the Solar Raycers, I think they have propelled efficiency and knowledge in this area which has direct benefits for the future. In the future, almost any flat spot on top of roofs and the like can become recharging areas. I personally don't think there is one magic technology that will solve all the problems but, lots of smaller efforts eventually start adding up into something significant.

lilpup · May-22-09, 05:07 PM

Oh, there's no doubt solar technology has improved a lot, but relatively speaking there's not much there for the auto industry.

I would love to see Detroit do solar and LEDs for streetlights - that would go a long way to solving one of the major public complaints and would be more cost efficient in the long run.

**mjs** · May-22-09, 06:09 PM

Originally Posted by ndavies

The automakers didn't decide what the consumer needs, the buying public did.

Where did the . . . the Ford Fiesta . . . disappear to?

No manufacturer in the world is going to dump money into a product that isn't selling.

The American public chose the kind of vehicle they wanted and that's exactly what they got.

According to Ford's Fiesta homepage, "Its huge around the globe and its latest incarnation is taking Europe by storm" and it will be "coming stateside early 2010". The page also quotes MotorTrend as saying "The Fiesta is a superb little car" and "The new Fiesta can't arrive soon enough, but it'll be worth the wait." The public has spoken.

http://www.fordvehicles.com/2011fiesta/

**PeachLaser** · May-23-09, 08:10 AM

Why gas costs so much.

http://www.lasersol.com/air_water/red_wagon.html

Angry Dad · May-23-09, 09:58 PM

Originally Posted by slimshady

More information on Tesla. Looks like they will be around for a while:

http://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/2009...-tesla-motors/

Yep, just like Bricklin, DeLorean, Yugo.

**mjs** · May-23-09, 10:42 PM

Originally Posted by Angry Dad

So where are these 50K Tesla sedans?

What MJS is avoiding is that they do not exist.

There are none. Nobody has bought one. Tesla has sold none. There are no running prototypes. No mules. Nothing.

But, there is a running prototype! Innovation lives and it seems Detroit is positioned to enjoy the ride! Cleaner air and less terrorism as the Middle East strarts to escape the tyranny of the greedy US capitalistic pigs! Thanks SS. It was a link from your story.

http://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/2009...-in-manhattan/

Angry Dad · May-23-09, 11:21 PM

A car company that has never built it's own car [[no Tesla does not build the platform for their 100k sports car) is going to build and sell a car with more content for half the price in less than two years?

I strongly advise you to invest every cent you have in this company. Be sure to save a magic marker for your "will work for food" sign when you are broke.