A proposal to Merge Detroit with Wayne County

[Danny]

I have no special interest in Oakland County's population declining. I just think the evidence indicates it probably is. I don't claim to be able to prove it, but the numbers and all those empty houses make me think I'm right.

NOT TRUE! and still Oakland's population as a whole is NOT decreasing over a ten year period. There are some areas like Southfield, Lathrup Village, Oak Park, Royal Oak TWP. and Pontiac has experienced white middle class flight to the influx of African American middle class families [[ Mostly from Detroit) Now its inner ring suburbs that borders these black communtities in Oakland County cities is experiencing white middle class flight and may gain possible black communities. There are more middle class white families moving to ex-urbs before the they further to open countries to ex-urban villages. Other middle class white families are over out of Oakland County to near by ex-urban counties like Livington County which its [[ Klan Militia County!) So Oakland County is still getting population growth. This is not just white folks moving away from Southfield and 8 Mile Rd. its blacks Asians and East Indians.

[Danny]

Actually I do dispute that Oakland county is gaining population. I think it gained population up to maybe 2005 and then started losing. I am pretty sure it will lose more.

I checked the 2005 U.S. Census population estimates. NO! Oakland County as whole did not lost some a lot of people. It gained from 1, 197,000 in 2005 to 1,200,000 in 2010. It will not lose more people than Detroit and Wayne County did. Oakland County did experiened some city population loss. Most of it was from Southfield, Royal Oak TWP and Pontiac Hazel Park and others. NICE TRY!

[Novine]

"And yes, obviously the MSA shrank. That's the whole point. Despite the overall regional economic and population losses, Oakland and Macomb counties continue to grow."

You're still missing the point. If a company has one division that made a profit but the overall company is going bankrupt, who calls that success? Same in SE Michigan. So what if Oakland County saw a small increase in population? The overall metro area is declining in population. Until we see a population growth in the overall metro population, we're shifting deck chairs on the Titanic.

[Novine]

This shows that population of the overall region has been in decline since the 1970s:

http://www.somacon.com/p469.php

We haven't been growing in population, only spreading out those who are left around an ever-expanding area [[sprawl) so that fewer people are paying for more infrastructure. Isn't that a recipe for success?

Although this doesn't have 2010 numbers yet, the chart speaks for itself:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Table_o...tistical_Areas

[mwilbert]

checked the 2005 U.S. Census population estimates. NO! Oakland County as whole did not lost some a lot of people. It gained from 1, 180,000 in 2005 to 1,200,000 in 2010. It will not lose more people than Detroit and Wayne County did. Oakland County did experiened some city population loss. Most of it was from Southfield, Royal Oak TWP and Pontiac Hazel Park and others. NICE TRY!

It isn't legitimate statistically to compare the estimated numbers with the enumerated ones, and by a stroke of luck the exact numbers you provided indicate why.

Look at these numbers;

Oakland County had 1,194,156 people in 2000 according to the enumeration.
It had 1,180,000 in 2005 according to your report of the estimate.
It had 1,202.362 in 2010 according to the enumeration.

If you believe these numbers are comparable, you have to believe that Oakland county lost population between 2000-2005, but gained it between 2005 and 2010. I find that impossible to believe. Even if you believe that Oakland county was gaining population in the latter period, there is no way it was gaining it faster than at the beginning of the decade.

[Danny]

It isn't legitimate statistically to compare the estimated numbers with the enumerated ones, and by a stroke of luck the exact numbers you provided indicate why.

Look at these numbers;

Oakland County had 1,194,156 people in 2000 according to the enumeration.
It had 1,180,000 in 2005 according to your report of the estimate.
It had 1,202.362 in 2010 according to the enumeration.

If you believe these numbers are comparable, you have to believe that Oakland county lost population between 2000-2005, but gained it between 2005 and 2010. I find that impossible to believe. Even if you believe that Oakland county was gaining population in the latter period, there is no way it was gaining it faster than at the beginning of the decade.

The U.S. Census population demographics figures must have estimated the amount of middle class families that are permanent in most OC cities. While more middle class folks moved futher out the other ex-urban areas. The black middle class and ethnic people fill in most OC cities in their inner ring void. If your thinking the OC population decline in the mid 2000s think of the middle class white folks. NICE TRY!

[mwilbert]

I'm not sure I understand what your are proposing here, so this may not actually address your disagreement with me.

If you are claiming that white people left prior to 2005, causing the population to decline, and then, separately and later, non-whites and ethnics moved in causing the population to rise, I guess I find that just as implausible--these people up to 2005 were just leaving their houses empty and selling them a year or two later? I don't see how else that model of population change could work, and it doesn't make sense with the peak of the Detroit-area housing boom being right in 2005. Something like that could have been happening from maybe 2007 on, but that is too late to affect the 2005 estimate. The 2005 estimate was just wrong.