A proposal to Merge Detroit with Wayne County

[rjk]

Also in the short term, I totally expect both Highland Park and Hamtramck to become part of Detroit, continueing on as neighborhoods within the city. I'm not sure if there is any truth to what I heard long ago, regarding "the only way a city can exist within the boundaries of Detroit is if it borders another city also within the city of Detroit." If true, Detroit absorbing just one of the financially strapped cities would force the other into non-existance, and would presumably also become part of Detroit.
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Huh?
That doesn't make any sense. So if HP were to decide to become part or Detroit they also are making the decision for Hamtramck?

Why wouldn't Warren gobble up Centerline?

[iheartthed]

LOL... the only "selling point" I could see for this scenario is for the rest of the county... not Detroit.

I'm sure Macomb County would love to add the Grosse Pointes to their county.... [[with all the troubles there lately... they'd probably pass on Harper Woods)... that would bring their Lake St. Clair frontage to about 40 miles [[from the current 31).

Oh... and since the remainder of Wayne County would need a new county seat, they would free up the Guardian Building of workers, empty out the county courts and jail for a new suburban location...

Remind me again why this would be a win-win situation for Detroit??

Because the county assesses a tax on property within Detroit on top of the taxes that are already assessed by the city. Getting away from Wayne County gets rid of those taxes, and the services would largely be unaffected.

[Danny]

Having Detroit consolidate to Wayne County suburbs and townships will be a very difficult tasks:

1. There is issue to municiple of city/ county services.

2. An issue to RACE CARDS between a humongous black community of Detroit vs. predominately white suburbs with a minority based black communties.

3. A larger tax base on most districts.

4. A proposed larger school districts that most of the boards are have trouble balancing budgets.

5. A bigger issue to control water rights into regional authorities.

6. A greater issue of re-organizing the once Wayne County Suburbs and townships into upcoming distric WARDS [[ in which I don't like!)


A Detroit County! will something like this:

Population 1,8 million about 40 miles width and 40 miles length, 55% white, 40% black, 8% hispanic,1% Asian, 4% other. It would the biggest city/county in the state of Michigan and the 4th largerst city in he U.S. and it might decline in slow numbers and increase in slower numbers.

[NorthEndere]

Says Birmingham man.

[Gistok]

Because the county assesses a tax on property within Detroit on top of the taxes that are already assessed by the city. Getting away from Wayne County gets rid of those taxes, and the services would largely be unaffected.

Iheartthed... I was having a brain fart... I was thinking in terms of if there was a Detroit/Wayne Co. split into 2 counties, rather than a governmental merger...

But then what gets eliminated... the County Board of Commissioners or the City Council [[I know that's an easy one....). The new mayor of Detroit would have to run county wide... and then there's the issue of the non-partisan nature of city government elections, versus the partisan nature of county elections.

[bailey]

Iheartthed... I was having a brain fart... I was thinking in terms of if there was a Detroit/Wayne Co. split into 2 counties, rather than a governmental merger...

But then what gets eliminated... the County Board of Commissioners or the City Council [[I know that's an easy one....). The new mayor of Detroit would have to run county wide... and then there's the issue of the non-partisan nature of city government elections, versus the partisan nature of county elections.

Are city of detroit elections non partisan by design or default?

[iheartthed]

Iheartthed... I was having a brain fart... I was thinking in terms of if there was a Detroit/Wayne Co. split into 2 counties, rather than a governmental merger...

But then what gets eliminated... the County Board of Commissioners or the City Council [[I know that's an easy one....). The new mayor of Detroit would have to run county wide... and then there's the issue of the non-partisan nature of city government elections, versus the partisan nature of county elections.

Well, my point was that either Detroit splitting from the county or consolidating with Wayne would accomplish the goal of reducing redundancies in government from Detroit's perspective. Detroit splitting from Wayne would probably be more politically palatable, but I don't think it's legal. But in that scenario, the county government would just cease to exist and the current city government would assume any responsibilities that are not currently covered by the city. If Detroit and Wayne split today Detroit would be Michigan's fourth largest county behind Macomb, while Oakland would assume the #1 spot and Wayne sans Detroit the #2.

In the second scenario, where Detroit merges with Wayne, I imagine that the suburban Wayne County cities would demand a council by district. Otherwise, it would probably remain similar in structure to the current city government, and the police departments across the county would all be merged into DPD, ditto for the fire departments into DFD.

[Bham1982]

I don't think a Wayne merger would occur in my lifetime, but if it somehow did occur, that would be the end of the Pointes as they're currently constituted.

Residents of the Pointes already have to deal with high taxes, long distance from "stuff" in Oakland County and issues with their western border. Folks put up with these disadvantages for the beautiful neighborhoods and excellent services.

If the Pointes have to rely on Detroit services, then there's no point to those five communities.

And if there's somehow a tri-county consolidation, I'm buying all the Livingston County land I can afford. Livingston will be the state's boomtown and [[eventually) wealth center.

[mwilbert]

In the second scenario, where Detroit merges with Wayne, I imagine that the suburban Wayne County cities would demand a council by district. Otherwise, it would probably remain similar in structure to the current city government, and the police departments across the county would all be merged into DPD, ditto for the fire departments into DFD.

This is all speculation, but this is not what I would expect. I would expect things would merge into county institutions where they already exist [[commissioners, sheriff/police, roads) and new departments to be formed where they do not [[fire, school district). Of course, a lot of the personnel would be from the Detroit departments, but I very much doubt you would just use their existing administrative structure, both because the out-county people would object and because the existing administration isn't very good. The exception would be the Water Department, where I expect you would just rebadge the existing one since it is already much more extensive than the city.

I expect merger of specific services is more likely than wholesale consolidation, and that is certainly how I would expect such a merger to be designed.

[iheartthed]

I don't think a Wayne merger would occur in my lifetime, but if it somehow did occur, that would be the end of the Pointes as they're currently constituted.

Residents of the Pointes already have to deal with high taxes, long distance from "stuff" in Oakland County and issues with their western border. Folks put up with these disadvantages for the beautiful neighborhoods and excellent services.

If the Pointes have to rely on Detroit services, then there's no point to those five communities.

And if there's somehow a tri-county consolidation, I'm buying all the Livingston County land I can afford. Livingston will be the state's boomtown and [[eventually) wealth center.

Dunno if you checked out the last census numbers, but Livingston is already the state's "boomtown". It's been the fastest growing county for at least two decades now. But boomtown is a misnomer because it's just a re-distribution of population, and not actual growth. I suspect that most of its "growth" is already coming at the expense of Oakland County [[emphasized by Oakland's dismal growth this past decade, despite Oakland having absorbed the many ex-pat Detroiters).

[Bham1982]

Yeah, I know Livingston is a booming county, but the growth is still [[numerically) quite small, and the county has a tiny proportion of the region's population and wealth.

My point is that Livingston would surge in relative popularity, and the other three counties would suffer. I wouldn't move, but I know lots of folks who would. People in the U.S. generally like local control, and if folks decide to remove that local control, absent compelling reasons to stay, they'll go somewhere else.

As for Oakland County, it grew in the last decade. How is growth [[of any amount) "dismal" in the Michigan context? Oakland County is mostly built out, and expensive for Michigan standards. It's natural [[under any statewide economic conditions) that it will be a slow-growth county from this point forward.

Oakland County is a Midwestern equivalent to places like Montgomery County, MD, or Westchester County, NY. Slow-growth because mostly built-out, but quite desirable and expensive in a regional context.

[mwilbert]

Oakland is mostly built-out now, but it wasn't for the past ten years. I would wager a large amount of money that:

1) Oakland county lost population over the past 5 years. [[admittedly hard to prove though).

2) That is will lose population between 2010 and 2020.

Slow-growth because mostly built-out, but quite desirable and expensive in a regional context.

Parts are. Lots of it is pretty dismal. I predict an increase in the dismal.

[Bham1982]

Mwilbert, I would agree that Oakland County has challenges, and that no area of the region is immune to our shared weaknesses. It also may be true that the less-desirable areas of Oakland increase in coming years.

But I think we may disagree in the causes and remedies. Most Oakland residents notice that the declining areas are immediately adjacent to Detroit, and [[excepting the Woodward corridor) relative distance from Detroit means fewer problems.

Generally speaking, folks don't want decisionmaking coming from south of 8 Mile. If that's the case, folks will move. And I don't think most folks think the remedies for what ails the region will come from south of 8 Mile. I understand that most on DYes will disagree with me.

[iheartthed]

Generally speaking, folks don't want decisionmaking coming from south of 8 Mile. If that's the case, folks will move. And I don't think most folks think the remedies for what ails the region will come from south of 8 Mile. I understand that most on DYes will disagree with me.

I don't disagree with you on that much. Which is why Metro Detroit could benefit from a healthy dose of migrants from outside the region who don't hold the same stale biases towards the city.

[mwilbert]

Most Oakland residents notice that the declining areas are immediately adjacent to Detroit, and [[excepting the Woodward corridor) relative distance from Detroit means fewer problems.

Aside from the fact that it ignores Pontiac, while people may think this, I believe it is a misperception. Much of Oakland county is declining; the decline is just most visible in the older parts. This is like people who think that Detroit started declining in the mid-60's. It became more obvious in the mid-60's, but it had been declining for at least a decade by then.

[Danny]

Oakland is mostly built-out now, but it wasn't for the past ten years. I would wager a large amount of money that:

1) Oakland county lost population over the past 5 years. [[admittedly hard to prove though).

2) That is will lose population between 2010 and 2020.



Parts are. Lots of it is pretty dismal. I predict an increase in the dismal.

Not true!! According to U.S. Census Bureau the population of Oakland County has increased from 1,171,945 in 2000 to somewhat 1,200,000 in 2010. The heavy increase of black middle class fight from Detroit ghettohoods to Southfield, Lathrup Village, Pontiac, Royal Oak TWP. ghettohoods made it possible. This cause most white middle class families to be in racial fear to move further out the OC's ex-urbs.

[mwilbert]

That doesn't mean that it didn't lose population between 2005 and 2010. My guess is that it did.

[Danny]

That doesn't mean that it didn't lose population between 2005 and 2010. My guess is that it did.

QUOTE=mwilbert;236158]That doesn't mean that it didn't lose population between 2005 and 2010. My guess is that it did.[/QUOTE]

No! Oakland County didn't lose population over a 5 year period. I have been monitoring Oakland County, Detroit's and other suburban population from SEMCOG. You can go online and log on and click into population estimates; within 50 year period for Detroit/suburban development. You wrote assumptions of demographics rather than doing research and report. Be careful!

[mwilbert]

I do not have much faith in SEMCOG's estimates. Perhaps you saw their estimate of Detroit's population? In any case, here is what I believe.

1990 Oakland pop 1083592
2000 Oakland pop 1171945

In the 90's Oakland was gaining about 9000 people/year. During the 00's it gained about 1500 people/year. It is reasonable to estimate that in 2000 it was growing about 5000/year. The most likely situation is that the growth rate declined during the 00's. If you are growing much faster at the beginning of the decade, and have regional outmigration at the end of the decade, and have greatly reduced home construction after 2006, the most likely conclusion is that Oakland lost population between 2005 and 2010.

In any case, the point is that the fact that the county grew for the decade as a whole doesn't contradict the idea that it shrank at the end. I can't be sure that it happened, but I believe it is extremely likely.

[Danny]

I do not have much faith in SEMCOG's estimates. Perhaps you saw their estimate of Detroit's population? In any case, here is what I believe.

1990 Oakland pop 1083592
2000 Oakland pop 1171945

In the 90's Oakland was gaining about 9000 people/year. During the 00's it gained about 1500 people/year. It is reasonable to estimate that in 2000 it was growing about 5000/year. The most likely situation is that the growth rate declined during the 00's. If you are growing much faster at the beginning of the decade, and have regional outmigration at the end of the decade, and have greatly reduced home construction after 2006, the most likely conclusion is that Oakland lost population between 2005 and 2010.

In any case, the point is that the fact that the county grew for the decade as a whole doesn't contradict the idea that it shrank at the end. I can't be sure that it happened, but I believe it is extremely likely.

I analyze population data by the permanent housholds and ethnic migration, not by the job, housing, employment rates,those who are living temporary and those who used to be OC residents who are now in prisons. When you look at SEMCOG population estimates from 1990 to 2000 there is residential growth from middle class people. Most of them were African American and middle class folks from Detroit. This is due to ecomonic and housing development, even to up to the ex-urbs.

Over the past 10 years from 1990 to 2000 Troy has experienced an influx of East Indians, Bengalis, Sri Lankis and Benglis. Also Chinese, Koreans and Vietnamese [[ Hmongs) played a part. Troy Public School District has experienced an East Asian explosion of students in every middle, elementary and High school. Today Troy has 18% to 20% Asian community the highest in Oakland County and I see no signs of slowing. What would O.C. look like in 2020 more population growth than Detroit that's for sure.

[mwilbert]

What would O.C. look like in 2020 more population growth than Detroit that's for sure.

Well, less loss anyway.

[Novine]

Look at the census map at the NY Times that has population by census tract. You can see that even in places like Farmington Hills, Novi, Canton and Plymouth Township, population is declining in the areas of the communities that were the first to develop. That's due to a combination of factors but it shows that even in "desirable" communities, there are areas where the exodus of people leaving isn't offset by people moving into those areas.

[szla]

There would be people running out of tri county Detroit. They already are. But run this proposition by people. A lot of people. And propose it in way that is rational. Preface it with the idea that Toronto, Indianpolis, Charlotte, Nashville, Tuscon and Louisville now have this form of municipal government. A merger that reduces redundancy with regard to police, fire, libraries, parks, tax breaks, transit coupled with a large group of cities with forward thinking views and people do not look at this as unpalpable. It is doable.

[NorthEndere]

Just to be clear, without the migration from Detroit, Oakland County would have lost population, last Census, and Macomb County's population would have been much, much less if not negative, too. Every central county [[Wayne, Oakland, and Macomb) of the metro lost a considerable amount of their white population. The metropolitan area as a whole lost population [[a statistically significant 3.5%), so the "growth" you see in Oakland isn't what it appears to be on paper.

For a suburban county that large and wealthy in this nation to post an aenemic 0.7% growth over an entire decade - really a stagnation - points to some long-term demographic issues and likely decline over the next decade if Detroit doesn't get back on its feet. This isn't some morbid wish or tear-down, it's just facts. Even seemingly healthy middle-ring mega-burbs posted significant losses [[relative to both the growth of the nation as a whole and similar suburban counties across the country) or the most modest of gains in Oakland County.

Last night, did a population rundown of the tri-county area, in specific, to see how the population has changed since the 1970 Census, which I believe is the first decade when the inner-metro started posting population drops. Here is the trend:

1970: 4,199,931
1980: 4,040,284 [[-3.8%)
1990: 3,912,678 [[-3.1%)
2000: 4,043,467 [[+3.3%)
2010: 3,863,924 [[-4.4%)

As you can see, the core metro area has basically been the same size for a good 40 years, now, and it seems most recently that now even the Oakland and Macomb are starting to lose singificant demographic bases. It seems that, now, the "growth" of these two areas is exclusively or near exclusively the result of out-migration from Detroit proper seeing as how the white population is falling, on net, in all of these counties for the first time ever.

[Bham1982]

Just to be clear, without the migration from Detroit, Oakland County would have lost population, last Census, and Macomb County's population would have been much, much less if not negative, too. Every central county [[Wayne, Oakland, and Macomb) of the metro lost a considerable amount of their white population. The metropolitan area as a whole lost population [[a statistically significant 3.5%), so the "growth" you see in Oakland isn't what it appears to be on paper.

The fact is that Oakland and Macomb are growing, and Wayne isn't. Even suburban Wayne is shrinking.

Yes, much of the growth in Oakland and Macomb is from Wayne. I don't understand why this is relevant.

Folks aren't having six kids anymore. Obviously areas only grow due to inmigration, whether domestic or international. I'm not sure why the growth shouldn't "count" if someone comes from Detroit, as if it's somehow less legitimate.

For a suburban county that large and wealthy in this nation to post an aenemic 0.7% growth over an entire decade - really a stagnation - points to some long-term demographic issues and likely decline over the next decade if Detroit doesn't get back on its feet. This isn't some morbid wish or tear-down, it's just facts. Even seemingly healthy middle-ring mega-burbs posted significant losses [[relative to both the growth of the nation as a whole and similar suburban counties across the country) or the most modest of gains in Oakland County.

Just to be clear, large and wealthy counties tend to have much lower rates of growth than smaller and more working class counties. That's why Westchester County, NY and Montgomery County, MD, despite being among the wealthiest and most desirable counties in the U.S. have slow growth.

It's a combination of NIMBYism, lack of developable land, and middle class folks chasing lower prices in adjacent counties.

Now I'm not saying Oakland is quite as prosperous as Westchester. But. within a regional context, it displays similar attributes.

Last night, did a population rundown of the tri-county area, in specific, to see how the population has changed since the 1970 Census, which I believe is the first decade when the inner-metro started posting population drops. Here is the trend:

1970: 4,199,931
1980: 4,040,284 [[-3.8%)
1990: 3,912,678 [[-3.1%)
2000: 4,043,467 [[+3.3%)
2010: 3,863,924 [[-4.4%)

As you can see, the core metro area has basically been the same size for a good 40 years, now, and it seems most recently that now even the Oakland and Macomb are starting to lose singificant demographic bases. It seems that, now, the "growth" of these two areas is exclusively or near exclusively the result of out-migration from Detroit proper seeing as how the white population is falling, on net, in all of these counties for the first time ever.

White population is falling in almost every metropolitan area in the country. It's hardly a proxy for decline. It's called the new demographic reality in the U.S., and [[myself being in a mixed-race marriage) I think it's great.

Frankly my community [[Birmingham) is still way to WASPy and I would appreciate a bit more diversity. Heck, even Catholics are ethnic "minorities" in this town. Adjacent Bloomfield Township, despite its steretypical suburban sprawl, is actually a million times more diverse.