So who goes? Conyers or Clarke

[Bluenote132003]

Eeeewwww....MonCon as ring girl...I think I just threw up in my mouth a little bit...

[EastsideAl]

I really doubt that they'd dump out Conyers district. Given his significant seniority, I would bet that the Democrats will fight hard to save his district [[unless he signals that he's ready to retire, which I don't think he has so far) and would much rather give up something else. With his seniority he has too much potential to get some $ for Michigan when the Democrats next retake the House, and he would head some key committees again.

As for Clarke, even though he's a first-termer I'd bet that his district is retained too, if for nothing else than the reason cman cites above. Michigan's black population is large enough that the Voting Rights Act will probably require the creation of 2 "majority-minority" districts that will be almost certain to elect an African-American representative. Republicans don't mind creating these districts either, as it allows them to isolate Democratic super-majorities in single districts, and create potential swing districts or GOP-leaning districts elsewhere.

Given black population shifts, I would expect that both districts will extend further out into the northern suburbs, which could really pinch Sander Levin's district. Perhaps they will find a way to create a long narrow district like North Carolina's controversial 12th, to reach out and link up with predominantly black cities like Pontiac and Flint.

[R8RBOB]

I really doubt that they'd dump out Conyers district. Given his significant seniority, I would bet that the Democrats will fight hard to save his district [[unless he signals that he's ready to retire, which I don't think he has so far) and would much rather give up something else. With his seniority he has too much potential to get some $ for Michigan when the Democrats next retake the House, and he would head some key committees again.

As for Clarke, even though he's a first-termer I'd bet that his district is retained too, if for nothing else than the reason cman cites above. Michigan's black population is large enough that the Voting Rights Act will probably require the creation of 2 "majority-minority" districts that will be almost certain to elect an African-American representative. Republicans don't mind creating these districts either, as it allows them to isolate Democratic super-majorities in single districts, and create potential swing districts or GOP-leaning districts elsewhere.

Given black population shifts, I would expect that both districts will extend further out into the northern suburbs, which could really pinch Sander Levin's district. Perhaps they will find a way to create a long narrow district like North Carolina's controversial 12th, to reach out and link up with predominantly black cities like Pontiac and Flint.

In order to maintain two Detroit districts, the GOP-controlled House and Senate will have to eliminate the 12th and that will create the same problem as removing Conyers. Levin have seniority too and there will be talk that Levin should not lose his seat but someone is losing their seat.

[luckycar]

I really doubt that they'd dump out Conyers district. Given his significant seniority, I would bet that the Democrats will fight hard to save his district [[unless he signals that he's ready to retire, which I don't think he has so far) and would much rather give up something else. With his seniority he has too much potential to get some $ for Michigan when the Democrats next retake the House, and he would head some key committees again.

As for Clarke, even though he's a first-termer I'd bet that his district is retained too, if for nothing else than the reason cman cites above. Michigan's black population is large enough that the Voting Rights Act will probably require the creation of 2 "majority-minority" districts that will be almost certain to elect an African-American representative. Republicans don't mind creating these districts either, as it allows them to isolate Democratic super-majorities in single districts, and create potential swing districts or GOP-leaning districts elsewhere.

Given black population shifts, I would expect that both districts will extend further out into the northern suburbs, which could really pinch Sander Levin's district. Perhaps they will find a way to create a long narrow district like North Carolina's controversial 12th, to reach out and link up with predominantly black cities like Pontiac and Flint.

We're trillions in debt.Conyers and Clarke won't see much money coming into their new districts.The days of bringing home the bacon are coming to end and fast.Replacing Levin or Conyers and their senority will be like a breath of fresh air,Dem.or Rep.

[Don K]

I really doubt that they'd dump out Conyers district. Given his significant seniority, I would bet that the Democrats will fight hard to save his district [[unless he signals that he's ready to retire, which I don't think he has so far) and would much rather give up something else. With his seniority he has too much potential to get some $ for Michigan when the Democrats next retake the House, and he would head some key committees again.

As for Clarke, even though he's a first-termer I'd bet that his district is retained too, if for nothing else than the reason cman cites above. Michigan's black population is large enough that the Voting Rights Act will probably require the creation of 2 "majority-minority" districts that will be almost certain to elect an African-American representative. Republicans don't mind creating these districts either, as it allows them to isolate Democratic super-majorities in single districts, and create potential swing districts or GOP-leaning districts elsewhere.

Given black population shifts, I would expect that both districts will extend further out into the northern suburbs, which could really pinch Sander Levin's district. Perhaps they will find a way to create a long narrow district like North Carolina's controversial 12th, to reach out and link up with predominantly black cities like Pontiac and Flint.

Yeah, I've often joked in the past that the Republicans could add Southfield and Oak Park to one of the Detroit districts, then send the district shooting up the median of Telegraph to pick up Pontiac, then up I-75 to drag in Flint, if necessary.

Given that the objective of the Republicans is to create a few really Democratic districts, there will be two Detroit-based, minority-majority districts after the dust has settled. My guess is the districts will be extended out to include Southfield and Oak Park. Then Levin's district will be expanded to include Pontiac, West Bloomfield, and the Farmingtons [[West Bloomfield and the Farmingtons are pretty Democratic these days). This would put Peters' home in Bloomfield Township into Levin's district, which would leave him with the choice of challenging Levin in the primary or moving into McCotter's district [[or Rogers' or Miller's), which would be a real challenge for him to win.

So at the end of the day my guess is Peters comes home, the other five Dems get really safe districts, and the Reps see if they can create nine districts that will elect Reps for an entire decade. But that's just my guess...