713,000

[bartock]

Another Forbes list - tweeted by the Metro Times - 2.9% home vacancy rate for Detroit [[national average is 2.7%) and 15.6% for Detroit apartments - Orlando and Las Vegas [[among others that overbuilt) have higher vacancy rates

http://www.forbes.com/2011/03/02/orl...st-cities.html

http://www.freep.com/article/2011032...2-8-new-Census

[softailrider]

I'm in the city almost every day, I don't see any densly populated areas. Show me an area where people are packed in. Almost every street has vacant houses, there's hardly any apartment buildings left. 713,000 sounds just about right to me.

[Gistok]

My late mother's street in the 48224 area code [[one of the most densly populated in the city) has 19 empty houses on it....

[SWMAP]

Charles Pugh says a re-count is warrantted because 'there are thousands of Detroiter incarcerated in other municipalities that should be counted as Detroiters"!!!

[313WX]

For Detroit's CSA

Livingston County = 180,967 [[decline from 183,118)
Monroe County = 152, 021 [[decline from 152, 949)
Washtenaw County = 344,791 [[decline from 347,563)
Genessee County = 425,790 [[increase from 424, 043)
Lapeer County = 88,319 [[decline from 89,974)
St. Clair County = 163,040 [[decline from 167,562)
Sanilac County = 43,114 [[increase from 42,064)
Lenawee County = 99,892 [[decline from 100,801)


Yeah, so only 3,000-odd people out of the MSA's 140k loss remained in Detroit's CSA at all. Statisically those 3,000 people don't make much of a difference at all. And actually, when you add it all up, we loss another 7k people in addition to the 140k.

[Detroitnerd]

Well, I can tell you that the Yemeni-Bangladeshi immigrant stream is pouring into Hamtramck, and then it's moving up to Warren and Sterling Heights. These are modest, hard-working people trying for a stab at the American dream, but not as prosperous as yesterday's factory worker. So, as Warrenites and Sterlingites move up to Shelby and Macomb, they're actually quite likely to sell their homes to immigrants passing though Hamtramck.

The numbers will out, but that's the perspective from down here anyway.

[lilpup]

What's really showing is the even greater split between the haves and the have nots. In Washtenaw County Ypsilanti population dropped 12.6%. Crime has risen a lot in Ypsi and a fair amount in Ann Arbor and once rural townships, too - bank robberies, shootings, home invasions, burglaries, you name it.

[Gistok]

Fury13... I always thought that "mob country" was the "Moravian & Millar corridor" of Clinton Twp.... so much classical statuary, grape vines and wrought iron.... and subdivision names like "Villa di Fiore".... LOL...

[313WX]

Actually, we're the 19th largest city in the country now [[Charlotte did pass us), pending Memphis' numbers.

If Memphis saw a 6% increase in population then we're the 20th largest city in the country.

[iheartthed]

Actually, we're the 19th largest city in the country now [[Charlotte did pass us), pending Memphis' numbers.

If Memphis saw a 6% increase in population then we're the 20th largest city in the country.

Memphis was released a couple of weeks ago. It declined in population so it's not larger than Detroit. Detroit will be 19th. What a shock.

[GOAT]

Why are you all so hung up on numbers comparing Detroit with other regions? Why give a crap how big Detroit is compared to other cities in the USA?

While LBP loves mentioning that Oakland grew he will reap what he has been sowing for years. That is other suburbs are going to do what his county did to Detroit [[in-fighting, making sure OC has a leg up on Detroit on a myriad of issues, etc).

When those who can get out of Detroit are doing just that, then there is a problem. Sadly I would say the loss would have/should have been larger but many people can't escape Detroit; that is the sad reality. Detroit, in a decade or so, will have only those who can live as kings in the city; while putting up with poor services and higher taxes. And those who are doomed to extreme poverty and just don't give a fuck. [[I will add the criminals as well as they will grow bolder as the city empties out. But no one will do jack shit about that. Nope! Just piss and moan and compare yourselves to Atlanta, Chicago, Memphis etc).

[lilpup]

I'm not as pessimistic as Goat but I do agree that there are too many size queens here. Detroit can turn around quickly if the city government gets its act together. Crime won't thrive when there's nothing to steal, no one to buy. Land is cheap and available. The question is what's best going forward - how to mix business and residential compatibly.

[lilpup]

On the plus side - all the stupid crime data ranking lists won't be able to list Detroit if they keep their size cutoffs at 750,000.

[Lombaowski]

I don't think the numbers mean much of anything other than it being a sad indictment of the city as a whole over the past few decades. Whether we have 900k or 713k in the city is not important, what is important is the percentage of that population who pays their taxes and invests into their communities. Detroit could have a population north of 1.8 million again but imagine the city with 1.8 million and the same problems it has now.
At some point Detroit will bounce back but a population between 750k and 1 million is probably about right long-term. Problem is who wants to move into Detroit right now? Anyone planning to move to Balduck Park? North Rosedale attractive? How's my old neighborhood of Franklin Park? Make Detroit viable first, worry about the population later.

[iheartthed]

I don't think the numbers mean much of anything other than it being a sad indictment of the city as a whole over the past few decades. Whether we have 900k or 713k in the city is not important, what is important is the percentage of that population who pays their taxes and invests into their communities. Detroit could have a population north of 1.8 million again but imagine the city with 1.8 million and the same problems it has now.
At some point Detroit will bounce back but a population between 750k and 1 million is probably about right long-term. Problem is who wants to move into Detroit right now? Anyone planning to move to Balduck Park? North Rosedale attractive? How's my old neighborhood of Franklin Park? Make Detroit viable first, worry about the population later.

I hope that percentage of the population who doesn't care but studiously pays their tax bill is ready to fork over the $240,000,000 that Detroit just lost in federal funding.

[English]

I hope that percentage of the population who doesn't care but studiously pays their tax bill is ready to fork over the $240,000,000 that Detroit just lost in federal funding.

$240 million? Wow. No way can Detroit avoid bankruptcy now.

[English]

I'm not surprised. Maybe there is an undercount, but I don't think there are anywhere near 800,000. Perhaps counting all the suburban addresses and those hiding out from immigration/the law/other situations, the true number is 750K.

In my opinion, we're not done with population loss -- unless something changes radically within the next 5 years, we are going to lose elderly and other holdouts. Without major incentives for other groups to move into the city of Detroit, or other unforeseen developments, the number in 2020 will likely be near 500K.

[iheartthed]

I'm not surprised. Maybe there is an undercount, but I don't think there are anywhere near 800,000. Perhaps counting all the suburban addresses and those hiding out from immigration/the law/other situations, the true number is 750K.

In my opinion, we're not done with population loss -- unless something changes radically within the next 5 years, we are going to lose elderly and other holdouts. Without major incentives for other groups to move into the city of Detroit, or other unforeseen developments, the number in 2020 will likely be near 500K.

Well, if the rate of population loss kept pace from 2000-2010 then Detroit's already nearing 690,000...

[English]

Well, if the rate of population loss kept pace from 2000-2010 then Detroit's already nearing 690,000...

Honestly I am not surprised. I love Detroit as much as anyone here, but I grew up in the inner city, and all my ties are recent. I didn't live in Detroit in the 40s or 50s or 60s... my Detroit is that of the mid-1970s until now.

Something bad happened during the last decade. 12-15 years ago, except for a handful of people, everyone I knew who'd grown up in the city was still there, and so were their parents and grandparents. Today, those numbers are reversed. My family and friend circles are all part of the population bleeding of the past 10 years -- made up of good, solid working class and lower middle class Black folks. This was the demographic that in 2000 swore they'd NEVER leave -- "my house is paid off!", and looked down on those of any race who had.

Today, everyone I grew up with, and my entire extended family [[there are a good 35-40 of us) are all gone. The old "ghettohoods" are just decimated beyond belief. I was hoping that it was because families were doubling and tripling up in homes to save money, but I believe the numbers. The numbers are low, but as I've said, no way are there 800,000 Detroit residents. We will continue to lose people because there are still so many of those stuck in the 'hood who are trying to leave. Out of Detroit, out of Michigan, anything to have a better life.

[detroitbob]

Well, I expected 750,000-775,000 not 713,000...in my lifetime almost a 60% population loss...Whoa...

[rooms222]

Something bad happened during the last decade. 12-15 years ago, except for a handful of people, everyone I knew who'd grown up in the city was still there, and so were their parents and grandparents. Today, those numbers are reversed. My family and friend circles are all part of the population bleeding of the past 10 years -- made up of good, solid working class and lower middle class Black folks. This was the demographic that in 2000 swore they'd NEVER leave -- "my house is paid off!", and looked down on those of any race who had.

Today, everyone I grew up with, and my entire extended family [[there are a good 35-40 of us) are all gone. The old "ghettohoods" are just decimated beyond belief. .

I agree. I think that the SUV boom that pumped up all of Michigan started to really cause job losses of all types as it petered out. Also, the rise in housing prices in Detroit [[and remortgagings), along with the better times resulted in a horrible bust where people have had to get out and ended up all over the country, not just in the suburbs.

This article, IMO was the best reporting on how the rise in property values became a two edged sword in the neighborhoods of Detroit [[and Metro Detroit).......

http://atdetroit.net/forum/messages/...tml?1180989442

[Lombaowski]

I agree. I think that the SUV boom that pumped up all of Michigan started to really cause job losses of all types as it petered out. Also, the rise in housing prices in Detroit [[and remortgagings), along with the better times resulted in a horrible bust where people have had to get out and ended up all over the country, not just in the suburbs.

This article, IMO was the best reporting on how the rise in property values became a two edged sword in the neighborhoods of Detroit [[and Metro Detroit).......

http://atdetroit.net/forum/messages/...tml?1180989442

Wow, that's powerful stuff.

Also some very good points by English in here. My Detroit is also more recent [[72-86 living) and what we considered ghetto then, is now gone or so abandoned that it really should be. There was a lot of crime when I grew up but it was unthinkable to see an abandoned house anywhere near my neighborhood near W. Chicago and Evergreen. Now that neighborhood has boarded up houses and the fire but has even hit it somewhat [[more towards Tireman than towards Joy).

All the people that lived in my neighborhood are gone except for some elderly who long ago finished paying for their house. For those people they barely hang on to a sense of the past that actually forced my family out. To those people those were the good ole days. Yeah the crack epidemic and runaway crime was better than bad mortgages and total flight from the city.

Those who could leave have left. Many who are left behind wished they had, because now they are stuck. This has happened over and over again since the 1960s, rich flight, white flight, African American flight and just flight these days. At some point this will stop, it has to but whoever is still in that city for the most part is as desperate of a population as you'll find. I always go back to the neighborhood when I'm in town to visit the lady across the street from the house I grew up in. She said her daughter lives in Madison Heights now and that the daughter wants her to move there because our neighborhood is no longer stable enough to be trusted. This includes visits by her grandchildren and great grandchildren, they no longer want to even visit the city anymore. And this is Franklin Park, there are dozens of neighborhoods worse off in every single way.

I am an optimistic person and I really bash those people not from Detroit that hold the city in contempt. But between Detroiters I sometimes have trouble being optimistic, I am terrified I will not only never get to see the Detroit my Dad enjoyed in the 50s...but even the Detroit I enjoyed in the mid to late 70s and early 80s. I mean seriously I know five or six people that live in the city now, 30 years ago almost everyone I knew and most of my family lived within the borders.

Detroit just can't catch a break, hasn't been able to catch one in 30 or 40 years it seems. Not sure what else to say, I love the city like it was my family but it's getting pretty tough for even me to swallow all this bad news year after year, decade after decade.

[Crumbled_pavement]

I'm not surprised. Maybe there is an undercount, but I don't think there are anywhere near 800,000. Perhaps counting all the suburban addresses and those hiding out from immigration/the law/other situations, the true number is 750K.

In my opinion, we're not done with population loss -- unless something changes radically within the next 5 years, we are going to lose elderly and other holdouts. Without major incentives for other groups to move into the city of Detroit, or other unforeseen developments, the number in 2020 will likely be near 500K.

I agree. I think Detroit will eventually become a stable city with a low crime rate and good schools and a place that people enjoy living in, but it will have to do it with about 450K people. Detroit [[we mostly already agree to this) will never see 1.8M residents again, in fact, I doubt Detroit will ever see 1M residents again.

Small and functional >>>> large and dysfunctional

This is worse than even SEMCOG's estimate, which wasn't generous to the city to begin with, so I don't mind if Bing calls bullshit on the numbers. Losing a quarter of the population in one decade seems a bit much, even for as bad as we all know things have been in the region.

I think this just shows how bad the count was that even Bing is getting involved, now. He'd said very early on that he wouldn't challenge the numbers, but even he knows this is just plain ridiculous. I could see a 20% loss, but there isn't anyway that this is an accurate count.

Every city bitches about being undercounted, but this is just ridiculous. The real number is 750,000 at the lowest.

I could believe 713K. There are blocks after blocks of neighborhoods that were viable back in 2000 that are completely vacant now. Just about EVERY neighborhood has plenty of vacant houses. Some neighborhoods have your random mixture of stripped and gutted houses mixed with some boarded up houses. Other neighborhoods are just a few inhabited houses with half the neighborhood LITERALLY burned down. Any, AND I MEAN ANY, area of the city that has wood frame houses has at least 2 or three stripped/gutted and/or burnt up houses on BOTH sides of the street.

I'm in total shock. Not over these numbers, I expected this. I just remember growing up in the 80s in the northwest corner of Detroit after everyone said the city was already hollowed out and a shell of its former self and the neighborhoods that I lived in were almost always fully occupied. Today, the vacancies in the denser neighborhoods are staggering. Scores of people are just walking away from their homes because they just can't be sold. Look at the real estate ads for Detroit. Prices are dirt cheap but houses stay on the market for YEARS. The houses just get gutted then burnt down. There is about 713K left in the city, if even that much.

What no one is talking about and maybe no one wants to face is that the city of Detroit is a deficit NOW. What happens when all of the former tax payers are no longer figured in the estimated revenue for Detroit. It's going to be a seriously rough ride to the bottom. And as English pointed out in her post, I see NOTHING that will turn the population numbers around in the next 10 years.

Someone on this thread, it doesn't matter who, wrote: "At some point Detroit will bounce back but a population between 750k and 1 million is probably about right long-term."

There is absolutely no evidence whatsoever that Detroit will turn around. Haven't we been waiting for a "turnaround" since about 1970?

I love Detroit, but my optimism decreases in proportion to the population loss.

I truly believe Detroit will turn around. Some of the seeds for that turnaround have already been planted. However, that turnaround won't happen in the next 10 years and it will not produce a population of 750K people. By about 2025 - 2030, Detroit will be a different city, much better in many regards but with a population of about 400 - 450K.

[iheartthed]

I agree. I think Detroit will eventually become a stable city with a low crime rate and good schools and a place that people enjoy living in, but it will have to do it with about 450K people. Detroit [[we mostly already agree to this) will never see 1.8M residents again, in fact, I doubt Detroit will ever see 1M residents again.

Small and functional >>>> large and dysfunctional



I could believe 713K. There are blocks after blocks of neighborhoods that were viable back in 2000 that are completely vacant now. Just about EVERY neighborhood has plenty of vacant houses. Some neighborhoods have your random mixture of stripped and gutted houses mixed with some boarded up houses. Other neighborhoods are just a few inhabited houses with half the neighborhood LITERALLY burned down. Any, AND I MEAN ANY, area of the city that has wood frame houses has at least 2 or three stripped/gutted and/or burnt up houses on BOTH sides of the street.

I'm in total shock. Not over these numbers, I expected this. I just remember growing up in the 80s in the northwest corner of Detroit after everyone said the city was already hollowed out and a shell of its former self and the neighborhoods that I lived in were almost always fully occupied. Today, the vacancies in the denser neighborhoods are staggering. Scores of people are just walking away from their homes because they just can't be sold. Look at the real estate ads for Detroit. Prices are dirt cheap but houses stay on the market for YEARS. The houses just get gutted then burnt down. There is about 713K left in the city, if even that much.

What no one is talking about and maybe no one wants to face is that the city of Detroit is a deficit NOW. What happens when all of the former tax payers are no longer figured in the estimated revenue for Detroit. It's going to be a seriously rough ride to the bottom. And as English pointed out in her post, I see NOTHING that will turn the population numbers around in the next 10 years.



I truly believe Detroit will turn around. Some of the seeds for that turnaround have already been planted. However, that turnaround won't happen in the next 10 years and it will not produce a population of 750K people. By about 2025 - 2030, Detroit will be a different city, much better in many regards but with a population of about 400 - 450K.

With all due respect, this is nonsense. Detroit cannot be a functional city with 400,000 residents unless it shaves off the 70 or so square miles that it annexed since 1915. We're talking about a central city of a major metropolitan area, not a half rural half suburban edge county.

[Crumbled_pavement]

With all due respect, this is nonsense. Detroit cannot be a functional city with 400,000 residents unless it shaves off the 70 or so square miles that it annexed since 1915. We're talking about a central city of a major metropolitan area, not a half rural half suburban edge county.

What's going to stop the population from shifting that far down? We see what has happened over the last decade? You see a slow down in the population loss in the future?