Census Bureau will release Michigan data next week: Predict Detroit's population.

[Crumbled_pavement]

My guess is that the city's population contracted by about 20% since 2000... So I say somewhere in the 750,000 - 760,000 range.

Wait? Aren't you the one that said before that no way in the world could Detroit have lost that many people in such a short period of time? Becoming a believer now I see....

[Vox]

My guess, 727,654.

[English]

It's not worth the bother of dreading census data. The census data represents an effect. What we all ought to be dreading is the cause. Detroit continues to lose population because the government of Detroit is not making any meaningful changes to reverse the trend. I don't see an end to that in sight, but perhaps I'm just cynical because of my age; does anyone else see anything coming down the pike that might reverse this trend?

Not in the short term. By midcentury, Detroit will be more important than it is today because of the global water crisis. It also will be demographically different.

I dread the data because it will be yet another opportunity for metro Detroit to engage in collective self-loathing and self-flagellation. It will be on the TV news. It will be discussed on Spotlight and Flashpoint. It will make newspaper headlines. No one, but no one is harder on Detroit and SE Michigan than Detroiters and SE Michiganders ourselves.

[Marc]

I believe Midtown, Corktown, East Jefferson and the CBD grew but I bet the rest of the city, i.e the other 90% lost tremendously

[mwilbert]

Marc has the answer to professorscott's question. The depopulation trend will stop when the emptying-out areas no longer have enough people left to offset the repopulating parts. I fully expect this to happen, but it don't think it is going to be very soon. Better government would speed it up some.

[One Shot]

Years ago during CAY wasn't it rumored the numbers were fudged to keep federal money?

[Brian1979]

Years ago during CAY wasn't it rumored the numbers were fudged to keep federal money?

With how Coleman ran the city I wouldn't doubt it.

[socks_mahoney]

Detroit: 787,546

Metro: 4,680,000ish

What does the census define as the Metro area? Tri-counties?

In any case, for the record, I'm an optimist.

[Meddle]

Yes and if the City doesn't like the numbers, they'll sue and fudge the numbers on any recount. Squirrels are residents too aren't they? Pigeons?

[NorthEndere]

Detroit: 787,546

Metro: 4,680,000ish

What does the census define as the Metro area? Tri-counties?

In any case, for the record, I'm an optimist.

With the state losing 50,000 on net, there is no way that Metro Detroit grew, at all, let alone by nearly 300,000 people. No, the Census defines Metro Detroit by commuting pattersn like it does for every other metropolitan area. Metro Detroit is composed of the tri-counties, plus the outlying counties of Livingston, Lapeer, and St. Clair.

[Al Publican]

We should start a pool on the closest guess being the winner. Wikipedia having Detroit at 910K, only down 50K from the 2000 census sounds too high. I will make a high and a low guess...
high: 870K
low: 790K

For comparison to Charlotte, NC, where I reside now, the "Queen City" is listed by the 2010 Census as having a pop. of 756K, which makes it, for now, the 18th most populous U.S. city. While my wife and I were in transit between San Diego, Detroit, and Charlotte in a period of a year during the 2010 Census, we opted to pick a former Detroit address of ours on the census form in order to give Detroit two more warm bodies.

[Cincinnati_Kid]

With the state losing 50,000 on net, there is no way that Metro Detroit grew, at all, let alone by nearly 300,000 people. No, the Census defines Metro Detroit by commuting pattersn like it does for every other metropolitan area. Metro Detroit is composed of the tri-counties, plus the outlying counties of Livingston, Lapeer, and St. Clair.

I heard somewhere that Windsor Ontario is also included in the metro area, anyone else hear of this?

[Cincinnati_Kid]

We should start a pool on the closest guess being the winner. Wikipedia having Detroit at 910K, only down 50K from the 2000 census sounds too high. I will make a high and a low guess...
high: 870K
low: 790K

For comparison to Charlotte, NC, where I reside now, the "Queen City" is listed by the 2010 Census as having a pop. of 756K, which makes it, for now, the 18th most populous U.S. city. While my wife and I were in transit between San Diego, Detroit, and Charlotte in a period of a year during the 2010 Census, we opted to pick a former Detroit address of ours on the census form in order to give Detroit two more warm bodies.

Hard to believe Charlotte has surpassed Detroit. Maybe in city pop, not the metro area I would think. And I thought Atlanta was the "Queen City of the South" ??

[Magnatomicflux]

I heard somewhere that Windsor Ontario is also included in the metro area, anyone else hear of this?

I've heard that too, and I think we are, but I don't think we're officially used in a census. I think we're included more in advertising the amount of people that are within reach of your buisness / tourist attraction etc.....

Windsor counts Detroit as well for things like that. Windsor itself [[2006) was 216,473 with a metro pop of 323,342. But when we advertise to buisness' to set up shop here, we can say there are basically 5 million people within a 1 hour drive of the city.

[NorthEndere]

I heard somewhere that Windsor Ontario is also included in the metro area, anyone else hear of this?

It's not. The bureau does not include areas across the national border. If even they did, the two don't have anywhere near the worker commuter exchange rate to include it in the metropolitan area.

[iheartthed]

Wait? Aren't you the one that said before that no way in the world could Detroit have lost that many people in such a short period of time? Becoming a believer now I see....

Yeah, I was a skeptic until the Cleveland numbers were released a few weeks ago.

[313WX]

Hard to believe Charlotte has surpassed Detroit. Maybe in city pop, not the metro area I would think. And I thought Atlanta was the "Queen City of the South" ??

Atlanta still is "Queen of the South" with over 6 million people in its metro [[larger than Detroit).

Like Indianapolis, Charlotte only has 2 million people in its metro.
]

[iheartthed]

That may restrain sprawl somewhat in some metros, because it will make it harder to build new housing, but I don't think that would be sufficient to stop the depopulation of Detroit. There is plenty of housing in the Detroit area, so presumably you would just see prices fall a bit. It isn't as if the metro area is done losing population itself.

Well, there is a lot of housing available in the Detroit area, but the excess will probably become slummed before the market allows buying houses to be "cheap". I personally think that this current decade will show trends similar to the 1990s. We went into the 1990s still reeling from the S&L crises [[that in hindsight looks mild compared to the 08 recession), which probably contributed to the slower shrinking rate [[and in some cases growth) that we saw with the older urban cities of the northeast and Midwest.

[cman710]

For the city, I will go with 789,000, though I hope it's higher.

[bartock]

720,000 in the city.

4.3 million metro.

[mwilbert]

Well, there is a lot of housing available in the Detroit area, but the excess will probably become slummed before the market allows buying houses to be "cheap". I

Faster in the suburbs than in Detroit and faster than regional population loss, both of which would probably be be required for it to lead to the repopulation of Detroit? I very much doubt it. I actually expect Detroit to end up shrinking more slowly than the region, but not yet and not because of mortgage terms.

And I think housing in the Detroit area is already mostly cheap, it's just going to get cheaper.

[Danny]

If Detroit's population decreases in 2010 It's not because of white flight, its because of the black middle class flight. [[ As in the rich blacks don't want to live closer to to poor blacks.) What I'm looking for is slow increase of white middle class [[ empty nesters and hipsters) and Mexican/Hispanic community in the SW Detroit barriohoods.

[iheartthed]

Faster in the suburbs than in Detroit and faster than regional population loss, both of which would probably be be required for it to lead to the repopulation of Detroit? I very much doubt it. I actually expect Detroit to end up shrinking more slowly than the region, but not yet and not because of mortgage terms.

And I think housing in the Detroit area is already mostly cheap, it's just going to get cheaper.

Oh, I'm not saying that this will cause Detroit to be significantly repopulated. I'm just saying that if this is the end of government subsidized mortgages then we likely won't ever see large population drops like that again in American cities [[unless the result of some type of violent or economic disaster). Now to get Detroit to re-populate will probably take 1) significant infrastructure investment in the inner-city and 2) a good influx of new residents from outside of metro Detroit. [[I believe point one is the best way to get to point two, but... that's not the point of discussion right now.)

[Vox]

Snyder, in a speech in Grand Rapids, said after the speech in Q and A that the Detroit share of Revenue Sharing would be 119 million dollars, down from 173. And this is IF they do the three bucket litmus test. From the pdf:

Municipalities will receive one-third of their funding for each category of best practices they meet. The three categories are accountability and transparency, consolidation of services and employee compensation. Local units must meet every criteria described in a specific category by the defined timeline to fully benefit from the program. Municipalities that do not meet the criteria will see reduced funding in their scheduled payments. Until the specified dates and new contracts begin, communities will continue to receive six payments as previously scheduled at the new funding level.

[Vox]

Snyder, in a speech in Grand Rapids, said after the speech in Q and A that the Detroit share of Revenue Sharing would be 119 million dollars, down from 173. And this is IF they do the three bucket litmus test. From the pdf:

Municipalities will receive one-third of their funding for each category of best practices they meet. The three categories are accountability and transparency, consolidation of services and employee compensation. Local units must meet every criteria described in a specific category by the defined timeline to fully benefit from the program. Municipalities that do not meet the criteria will see reduced funding in their scheduled payments. Until the specified dates and new contracts begin, communities will continue to receive six payments as previously scheduled at the new funding level.

See the links at mml.org under the Governors message on Local Government Reforms.