Are You Prepared, Pt. IV [The Gas Prices Thread]

[Augustiner]

Logically this is true, but do we really think people want to drive more? Maybe they do. I don't.

People aren't going to go out of their way to drive more purely for the sake of driving more, but if driving is cheap, it may compare favorably to an alternative. For example, someone who lives at 11 and Woodward and works downtown can either drive to work and save some time, or take the SMART bus and save some money. If the cost of driving is reduced, that shifts the equation in favor of driving, and might cause some people at the margins to choose to drive when they otherwise might have taken the bus. Some people might decide that it's now feasible for them to move further from work to a house or neighborhood they like better, when otherwise they might have been hesitant to do so given the increased cost of commuting the longer distance, and others might decide to drive themselves when they otherwise would have carpooled.

[Detroitnerd]

ummmm, electric cars, hybrids, high mileage econo-boxes are "conservation".

Not when they only perpetuate the car-only mode of lifestyle. Remember, half the energy involved in cars goes into the making of them and the disposal of them. That's why serious conservation involves ditching cars and having transit alternatives. This frees up land for development that used to be for parking. This puts pedestrians on the street and helps encourage businesses to open there instead of in far-flung parkingopolises.

At their very worst, EVs, hybrids and boxes are little toys that help certain people rationalize our local policy of driving personal vehicles for everything until the end of time...

[DetroitDad]

The transit is below acceptable here. However, with Google Transit Directions for Detroit, you can plot your transit route relatively easily. Generally, reliable bus transit runs continuously on the radial spoke roads system out of Downtown Detroit [[Fort, Michigan Avenue, Grand River, Woodward Avenue, Gratiot, and East Jefferson) 5-15 minutes a part, 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, except a couple major holidays. If you need further assistance, just to be sure of a route [[or ask about holiday operating hours) there is a information window at the Rosa Parks Transit Center at Michigan Avenue and Cass.

There is generally a local route offered through DDOT, as well as a limited stop express route through SMART. There is also a regular bus to Windsor through the Detroit-Windsor Tunnel for the same price as crossing in a car, all from the transit center or near individual People Mover stations. Amtrak makes daily trips from New Center to Ann Arbor, and the double-decker Mega Bus also has multiple destinations accessible from the Rosa Parks Transit Center.

I'm planning on moving to the greater downtown area soon once I get settled into a job. Lets face it, transportation in the city is still pretty limited but the areas I'm looking at are close enough to downtown and most needs to walk, bike, or take a bus. The job I'm looking at requires quite a bit of travel, unfortunately, but does compensate well for mileage. I've wanted to move to downtown for a long time; its just a bonus that the move would allow me to keep my gas consumption pretty low.

I'm often reminded how much of a cultural/generational difference seems to exist around here [[and likely many other places). Not long ago I went to a family gathering around 25 mile and I kept thinking about how much of our limited oil is being used to keep this lifestyle going. The drive from downtown, much less downriver, uses a lot of gas [[not as much as other family who live around clarkston though) The houses there are massive mcmansions that aren't built particularly well. For example their house is relatively new but drafty and features the signature mcmansion "great room" which is basically a two story living room which assures that much of the heating energy rises to the second floor level and is largely wasted. I have another set of relatives somewhere deep in oakland co that have such a massive mcmansion [[for only two people) that it requires TWO furnaces just to heat. When we arrive theres a sea of massive trucks and suv's outside. Despite all this does anyone seem to be paying attention to the reality of fuel prices/demand? Well there's usually some small talk bitching about gas prices but that quickly turns back into talk about which new F550 truck, boat, rv, etc that people are buying. I see similar things downriver too, where many households have not one but two full size trucks as primary vehicles. I understand the need for a big truck or van for work but why do so many people feel the need for one to commute to their office job and to the grocery store with? I have a friend who's employer pays his gas to commute from the monroe area to shelvy twp every day in a big company truck!

Perhaps whats most perplexing to me is that when I talk about the potential for some recovery in Detroit proper and why I see potential and a good quality of life I get treated like I'm the one with the tinfoil hat on who's talking crazy meanwhile much of my family [[who aren't exactly rich) are facing some pretty harsh lifestyle changes if fuel costs keep going up.

Look I know I'll probably take some flak here from the oldtimers who think I'm full of shit but i can see a point where our outermost exurbs start to see a lot of abandonment. The long commutes, massive amount of square feet to heat and cool, and more at $5+ a gallon will eventually mean people will find a better quality of life in the city or inner suburb and what will really keep them from walking away from their most likely underwater mortgage? I'm starting to save up for a house that I can pay cash for which is a reasonable size and close to job centers. Sure there are still plenty of issues living in the city but at least I won't be AS much at the mercy of unstable fuel supplies.

One more thing is I don't understand is everyone tearing apart the volt for price. The fact is you're paying the R&D of a totally new design. The other factor is simple supply and demand for the battery packs. The economies of scale will improve greatly once the volt starts selling in larger numbers [[GM itself has said this will shave at least a few grand off the price of the car) I know the volt stickers for just over 40k but also understand that with tax incentives it can come closer to 35k [[IMO not too bad a deal to be able to avoid gas stations most of the time. Most big trucks end up around 30-45k for the privilege of getting 12mpg city.....pass

Of course the volt is still well out of my price range but I'm looking to replace my old hoopdie with the new chevy cruze eco which is rated for 28mpg city and 42mpg highway with the 6spd manual and stickers for around 19k. I'd recommend looking at this car if you want great mileage but can't quite afford or want the volt. I'll bet chevy makes some good money on this car!

I'm sure i rambled on long enough, I'm just upset to see so many people almost totally at the mercy of gas prices and I'm trying to reduce my dependence as much as possible.

Welcome to Detroit! That was a very interesting post. I posted a "day in the life" account of life in Downtown, some time ago. I'd be interested on your take on that, since some people seem to think it's fabricated.

In an older DetroitYES! thread about sustainability in the suburbs, there are some very good posts expressing both view points. Mainly though, there are still some major problems with the theory that gas prices will change consumption patterns during the age of the Chevy Volt. The suburbs may stand to remain a focal living arrangement well into the future, mainly because of the amount of people underwater on their mortgage, and a lack of access to capital. The transition back to areas of the city could possibly be only obtainable through new young families. I think it could be a long time before you see elder generations walking away from their homes in suburbia.

The other problem I see with your scenario, is in the one where a world where the Volt and new urbanism catches on. The Volt, green technology, and new urbanism should save us much resources, but in the real world, we have found that a decent number of people simply get smug and compensate there savings with further waste. Hybrid drivers and people in some new urban developments actually drive considerably more and pay more in traffic fines than their urban sprawl counterparts. This is a common problem of the green development era, where we simply compensate by using something that is destructive, more, if we think it is still less than what we used to use. Often times, for hybrid owners, this compensation is a biased justification for driving faster more often.

This self-bias is, while counterintuitive, the reason that urban sprawl could become more sustainable than new urbanist city living.

However, there are two other issues with electric and hybrid vehicles. One is that free flowing capital will need to be made more abundant for car loans. Second is that the system as it currently operates will collapse if they suddenly became dominant, especially if combined with a reduction in people able to drive. If people start getting upset that they can't use the system, and that poor road conditions are causing poor road conditions, they may take aim at hybrid and electric car owners. Hybrid and electric car owners not only pay less or no gas taxes used to keep up road systems, but they also often times receive additional tax breaks for driving a more efficient car. This is already a regular talking point between political sides.

I am not sure how this will all play out.

Generally, I think there is strong evidence that shows we are beyond the point of no return for supply, economic, environmental, and geopolitical disruptions and negative affects, far beyond what we are seeing right now. If that is the case, than it really doesn't matter what we choose to do, because there is a very good mechanism in place that is actually making the choice for us called reality. Really, the only choice left that is ours, is weather we want to go be dragged through by reality, chaotically, kicking and screaming like spoiled children, or like nobleman and knights valiantly marching in to realistically handle the situation. The only thing many of us fully control is our own attitude.

I am definitely looking forward to the Woodward Avenue Light Rail Line, Ann Arbor Detroit Commuter Rail Line, and various other proposed transit projects across the region.

[DetroitDad]

DetroitDad.... you forgot to add LEGO to your list....

Gistok, I know you probably think I'm a kook for trying to conserve oil and convince people to drive less, but it's all with your LEGOs [[LEGO or LEGOs?) in mind. We simply must have a way to preserve these great plastic colorful block creations for centuries into the future.

[MikeM]

Keep it classy Detroit:

http://www.mlive.com/news/detroit/in...sting_gas.html

[mwilbert]

It takes a lot of energy to build houses and their associated infrastructure. If more efficient cars allow houses in the exurbs to be used even after gas prices have risen a lot, that is also conservation. Higher fuel prices will tend to push people into more energy-efficient places, but it isn't as if it would be great to just abandon all the outlying stuff. Much better to allow a gradual transition by reducing the transportation costs with more efficient vehicles. And who knows, it is entirely possible that during the transition period better means of electrical storage will be invented and no one will have to move out of the exurbs for energy-related reasons at all. Just because gasoline costs a lot now [[and, really, not so much yet) doesn't mean that rising transportation costs are a permanent condition.

[Crumbled_pavement]

The Fed government is scheduled to shut down at Noon on Friday. Get ready, it's about to be a really rough ride.

[ghettopalmetto]

It takes a lot of energy to build houses and their associated infrastructure. If more efficient cars allow houses in the exurbs to be used even after gas prices have risen a lot, that is also conservation. Higher fuel prices will tend to push people into more energy-efficient places, but it isn't as if it would be great to just abandon all the outlying stuff. Much better to allow a gradual transition by reducing the transportation costs with more efficient vehicles. And who knows, it is entirely possible that during the transition period better means of electrical storage will be invented and no one will have to move out of the exurbs for energy-related reasons at all. Just because gasoline costs a lot now [[and, really, not so much yet) doesn't mean that rising transportation costs are a permanent condition.

I think you mean to say *existing* exurbs.

I would contend that although you're not necessarily wrong, any neighborhood that is accessible by means of transportation OTHER than private automobiles will always use less energy than an area designed to be exclusively navigated by automobile. This axiom would hold true no matter the energy source, and no matter the cost of the energy.

[mwilbert]

Yes, I think it should have been fairly clear from context that I was referring to sunk cost in infrastructure, but maybe it wasn't.

And yes, I would expect that denser development served by non-auto transport would be more energy-efficient. There is some question in my mind as to whether we will care about that difference in the long run, but in the short-to-medium run it is likely to be important.

[ghettopalmetto]

And yes, I would expect that denser development served by non-auto transport would be more energy-efficient. There is some question in my mind as to whether we will care about that difference in the long run, but in the short-to-medium run it is likely to be important.

I think the density of development will matter a whole lot more in the long-term than in the short-term. Eventually, we will return to a manner of living in which humans had thrived for thousands of years. The post-WWII period will become nothing but a blip in the course of human history--an anomaly made possible by a very short period of great wealth and cheap oil.

But watch the short-sighted defenders of this anomaly fight the natural course of events until the bitter end and its inevitable collapse, pulling out all the stops to continue subsidizing the only way of thinking that they know, lest they be challenged to adapt to a paradigm that directly contradicts what they already think they believe. We're already seeing it in the "Drill, Baby, Drill" people, as if putting drills in the ground can somehow manufacture $0.99/gallon gasoline. Much like real estate, they ain't making any more dead dinosaurs.

Denial is a bitch. The sooner we can all adapt, the better off we'll all be.

[mwilbert]

Bet you're wrong. However, it is entirely possible you will be correct for the rest of my lifetime, so it isn't a very satisfactory bet. In any case the robots will be most likely be running things by then, and they may have different ideas about appropriate lifestyles.

[ghettopalmetto]

Bet you're wrong. However, it is entirely possible you will be correct for the rest of my lifetime, so it isn't a very satisfactory bet. In any case the robots will be most likely be running things by then, and they may have different ideas about appropriate lifestyles.

The robots are only concerned about validating their own beliefs--not practicality, and certainly not survival. They'll still be pontificating on their soapboxes while those who design, make, and build will be busy reconfiguring the clusterfuck that our grandfathers began.

[mwilbert]

I think we are talking about a different set of robots!

[Crumbled_pavement]

$4.15 a gallon by my job with no signs of slowdown. I also fully expect that we're due for a really bad hurricane season [[we haven't had one since Katrina) and you know what happens then. Let's not forget about continued unrest in the Middle East that is expected to get worse. I've upgraded my prediction to $6 a gallon by August. It's going to get really brutal!!!!

[casscorridor]

Well it is not relieving to know that the governments at all levels are implementing austerity measures that will hurt people on lower end of the economic spectrum [[the bottom 70 or so percent).

In June, DDOT will cut 24 hr service, eliminate several routes and increase frequency to 60 min intervals on weekends, even on Woodward! At a time when we should be increasing service, not cutting it.

And money for other transit projects is getting cut, luckily the Woodward Light-Rail will probably still get funded, but no way is the Ann Arbor commuter rail going to start. Hope you all remember it was suppose to start October 2010.

That's on top of privatization of our public school system [[via Robert Bobb), impending attacks on medicade, food stamps, social security and unemployment, and a wide slew of other "austerity" measures.

Why I mentioned the buses and rails first is because that is exactly the type of infrastructure investment we need to be making in this time of economic crisis. If we are to cut anything, it should be the military, and the three theaters of war [[Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq). No amount of cutting social services or lowering taxes for the rich will get the economy back on track.

We should be increasing taxes on the rich, lowering them for the poor, drastically reducing military spending and drastically increasing social and infrastructure spending. We should be building a state-of-the-art high-speed rail system, that connects all our major cities. And in each major city, we should be building a world-class mass transit system. We should be weatherizing homes and businesses and transforming our energy grid to run on clean and renewable energy [[as in not-fossil fuels or nuclear). We should also retrofit our communities to be walkable and accessible to bikes and transit, following the principles of new urbanism. We should be expanding not cutting funding to schools and universities, so that everyone has access to education. We should be expanding, not closing our libraries and adding new offerings [[making them into media centers and public study areas, not just a place for books). We should be building new parks and public places, so we have more green space at the same time as having more dense and vibrant neighborhoods.

We could put millions back to work, and jump start the economy. And in the process we could develop a new economy where we actually produce stuff we need. Start making all the things we need and use in America, in America. Check your labels of random consumer goods to see where they produced and ask yourself why couldn't we have made that here? Why do we have staggering unemployment when there is much work to be done? Hmm... I think the answer has something to do with a system that starts with a C and ends with an M.

What do we need? Food, water, clothing, housing, art, recreation, leisure. I don't think it is that hard to provide that to all people. Just not with this wretched system. We could all work four hours a day and four days a week and still have more than we need. Yet, some people have billions upon billions of dollars, while others have nothing. While some people work 60 hours a week and others work zero. Something is wrong, and I think it has to do with that system-which-must-not-be-named.

[maxx]

http://michiganradio.org/post/why-di...chigan?nopop=1

First, refineries have to switch from making winter gasoline to summer gasoline. It’s required by the government because of higher smog levels during the summer. The summer grade of gasoline is cleaner. But every city with a smog pollution problem has to have a different blend of gasoline. And that means refineries have to make different fuels . Re-tooling these refineries is complex and often there are problems… right when we start buying more gasoline for summer trips....

“We’re in driving season where the market is very sensitive. Oil companies know if they have a problem, prices shoot up. But, at the same time, we have to realize that there’s this transition from winter to summer gas and it’s not like just turning a light switch. Refineries have to retool their plants; they have to restart them. Everything has to change. They have to drain their tanks; they have to fill the with summer-spec gas. It has to make its way through the pipeline. And inherently, when you’re doing this massive switchover, there are going to be some kinks.”

[maxx]

Then there's this from Sander Levin:

Last year Congress gave final approval to the Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act that included several provisions to address speculators. In particular, the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission [[CFTC) was given new powers to police the commodities markets and take action to curb excessive speculation. The CFTC’s mission is to protect market users and the public from fraud, manipulation, abusive practices related to derivatives, including speculation in the oil markets that drive up gas prices.

However, market speculators have fought back against the Wall Street Reform Act and persuaded the House Appropriations Committee to reduce funding for the CFTC to it will not be able to carry out its mission. The Appropriations Committee has proposed to cut funding for the CFTC by $30 million next year. The House of Representatives debated CFTC funding last week and Democrats attempted to boost the CFTC’s budget. The Republican Majority blocked that effort, but this will not be the final word on the subject as the U.S. Senate also has a say in the final funding level for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

[So tell me again how there's no difference between Reps. and Dems.]

[bailey]

1st post on this thread.....

Gas most likely will be $5 a gallon before summertime hits. What will you do? Will you support more mass transit? Will you walk, bike more? Will you just go bankrupt with the vast majority of Americans? Our economy is truly in a dangerous place and is only hanging on by a thread. Not just us, the whole entire world. Are you prepared?

followed by page after page of freak out.

followed by me getting gas for 3.50 this morning.

[oladub]

[So tell me again how there's no difference between Reps. and Dems.]

Democrats generally blame George Bush, Republicans, or some other bogeyman for their own failed economic policies; many of which they conduct together with Republicans. Democrats find that more convenient than considering, for instance, the recent drop in the spending power of the dollar which, by itself, raises the price of imported oil 15%. In addition to temporary speculator plays and a collapsing dollar, international demand and the fact that most of the world's oil is produced by government owned oil companies. Therefore, to suggest that speculators have a huge effect on the market is to insinuate that foreign nations manipulate the price of oil and socialists [[government ownership) are behind speculation. The IEC will be dumping 60M barrels of oil reserves into the market in the next 60 days which might be considered a move by governmental speculators to temporarily suppress the price of oil. An interpretation of something in the Frank-Dodd bill will have the effect of only allowing the very rich to participate in certain commodity investments. The rich will be allowed to get richer under this legislation. Everyone else will have to be happy with a collapsing dollar.

[3WC]

Every market is based on speculation; that's how they work. Why pick on oil? Why not pork bellies? [[They have increased the margin requirements which is probably a good idea.)

There's a big difference between speculation and market manipulation. The biggest market manipulator is the government by its policies. The IEA announced this morning that the U.S. will release a little over a million bbls per day into the market during July from our Strategic Petroleum Reserves [[SPR.) Europe will put an equal amount on the market during July for a total of 60 million bbls.

Folks, 60 million bbls is 16.7 HOURS of daily worldwide oil consumption. The governments will supply about as much oil per day during July as Libya produced before the war over there. Strictly showboating.

It should be noted that it is strictly against the law for the govt to use any of that oil in our SPR for other than national defense; dumping oil to influence the market, as they plan to do today, is strictly prohibited. That hasn't stopped any of our presidents from Clinton on for doing it however, strictly for political purposes. They're all whores.

[3WC]

P.S. Oladub is correct.

Also, by law, the oil dumped out of the SPR must be replaced, so the government will be buying back its 30 million bbls, maybe at a higher price.

[Crumbled_pavement]

I also fully expect that we're due for a really bad hurricane season [[we haven't had one since Katrina) and you know what happens then. Let's not forget about continued unrest in the Middle East that is expected to get worse.

Hurricane Irene? Ongoing conflict in Libya and Syria?

Bachmann is the right candidate. She has promised she can get us down to $2 a gallon gas again.

http://content.usatoday.com/communit...w-2-a-gallon/1

[fryar]

If only there were a candidate credibly promising $2 gas and 11 M new jobs?

Where are you, Mitchell Bachney?!

[animatedmartian]

Yea Irene really devastated those New Jersey oil rigs. Oh wait...

[Mikeg]

Hurricane Irene? Ongoing conflict in Libya and Syria?

Bachmann is the right candidate. She has promised she can get us down to $2 a gallon gas again.

http://content.usatoday.com/communit...w-2-a-gallon/1

In April you promised $6 a gallon gas for last month - why should we take you any more seriously than Bachmann?

...... Let's not forget about continued unrest in the Middle East that is expected to get worse. I've upgraded my prediction to $6 a gallon by August. It's going to get really brutal!!!!