Detroit homicides for 2010 drop to 308 [[unofficial)

[English]

No connection between economy and crime......except where domestic violence is concerned.

Disagree. So would every other social scientist I know.

[Lowell]

Here we go. Can we all celebrate just a little itsy bit now?
Attachment 8234

[Detroitnerd]

Here we go. Can we all celebrate just a little itsy bit now?
Attachment 8234

HAHAHA.

[Johnlodge]

Here we go. Can we all celebrate just a little itsy bit now?
Attachment 8234

Much better, Lowell. Thanks, and yes, the news still looks good.

Here's another promising trend I've noticed, while we're throwing graphs around:

[jt1]

While still tragically high this is good news. Imagine the howling we would have on this board and elsewhere if the rate had increased.

The real statistic I want to hear about is how many of those is murders are solved and the murderers imprisoned. I forget the actual unsolved murder stats but they are very sorry. Swift, sure justice is the best path to taking the rate down to 50-100, in line with the national averages.

Nonetheless this direction is encouraging.

Cases solved is one thing. I'd also like to see the number of these murders that are
1. Drug related
2. Gang related
3. Where the victim knew the person that killedhim/her

What is left is what I would consider random. Since I don't hang with dealers, addicts or gang members I'm curious how many of those murders could have impacted me.

I'd prefer gang bangers murder each other than 5 random murders since the random stuff is what would impact me.

[Detroitnerd]

Much better, Lowell. Thanks, and yes, the news still looks good.

Here's another promising trend I've noticed, while we're throwing graphs around:

Hahaha. I love you, JL. Only thing is, there IS no blue emoticon with its tongue sticking out!

[Johnlodge]

Hahaha. I love you, JL. Only thing is, there IS no blue emoticon with its tongue sticking out!

Yeah, I should I have double checked the color on that one.

[milt721]

Funny...only 152 were reported by the News, Free Press and Channels 2, 4, and 7. [[Yeah, I keep track of this stuff...don't ask me why.)

[Fnemecek]

Yeah, Detroit's homicide rate dropped 15% for all of 2010. I wonder though, since we had 2 police chiefs during 2010, how did it stack under Chief Evans vs. under Chief Godbee?

[SWMAP]

Citylover and English: here's someone with hefty research credentials who agrees with Citylover: "Daniel Kennedy, criminal justice professor at the University of Detroit Mercy, said the economy doesn’t play so large a role in crime rates as most people think. “People tend to over-exaggerate the influence of the economy on crime,” Kennedy said. “Most young men who hold up party stores aren’t taking that money to buy their babies formula; they’re doing it because it’s a lifestyle. Unemployment isn’t usually going to turn an honest guy into a hoodlum.” Kennedy said the latest figures are reason for “cautious optimism,” but he also said the numbers can be influenced by factors such as declining population and imperfect reporting procedures."

[Detroitnerd]

Citylover and English: here's someone with hefty research credentials who agrees with Citylover: "Daniel Kennedy, criminal justice professor at the University of Detroit Mercy, said the economy doesn’t play so large a role in crime rates as most people think. “People tend to over-exaggerate the influence of the economy on crime,” Kennedy said. “Most young men who hold up party stores aren’t taking that money to buy their babies formula; they’re doing it because it’s a lifestyle. Unemployment isn’t usually going to turn an honest guy into a hoodlum.” Kennedy said the latest figures are reason for “cautious optimism,” but he also said the numbers can be influenced by factors such as declining population and imperfect reporting procedures."

There's not much in there about the role of persistent, stubborn urban poverty. I would argue that is what makes criminals.

[SWMAP]

Poverty and the current state of the economy are two different motivators. English contradicted Citylover when he said there is no connection between the economy and crime. The professor says that there is little connection between "the economy" and crime rates.
Your point is I think about there being a poor "underclass."That is a finer point and is probably a true correlation.

[English]

I respect points made, and agree that thugs aren't robbing for infant formula, but the persistence and growth of a permanent, caste-like poor underclass in Detroit has only been exacerbated by the loss of over 800,000 jobs in the state. The city not only is poorer than it was 12 years ago when I finished undergrad, it feels poorer and scarier than it did in 1998. That's why we're not reaping any benefits or receiving any credit for lowering the crime rate. People are safer statistically, but they don't feel safer.

There's also plenty of noncriminals among the Detroit poor. They are the primary targets and are most of the victims of Detroit's crime. However, little compassion exists for them. Maybe it's just human nature to hate poor people. I don't know.

[Pingu]

The cops like to take credit, just like the military rolls out stats. How can law enforcement stop two pissed off family members from killing each other or gangs from conspiring to make a hit?

Easy, every time some fool tries to off another fool, abracadabra, there's a shrewdly-deployed cop, right there on the scene, shooting the gun out of the guy's hand. Maybe we should deputize Santa, the Easter Bunny, and the Tooth Fairy.

[citylover]

I respect points made, and agree that thugs aren't robbing for infant formula, but the persistence and growth of a permanent, caste-like poor underclass in Detroit has only been exacerbated by the loss of over 800,000 jobs in the state. The city not only is poorer than it was 12 years ago when I finished undergrad, it feels poorer and scarier than it did in 1998. That's why we're not reaping any benefits or receiving any credit for lowering the crime rate. People are safer statistically, but they don't feel safer.

There's also plenty of noncriminals among the Detroit poor. They are the primary targets and are most of the victims of Detroit's crime. However, little compassion exists for them. Maybe it's just human nature to hate poor people. I don't know.

I think the difference from the urban poor and the urban criminal is this: criminals have no impulse control.They want it now.They are unwilling to work. They want instant gratification.They may not be sociopaths but they have sociopath behaviors.

I would bet that you would find significant drug/alcohol abuse among both groups the urban poor and criminals Noncriminals might have substance problems because of the intractable nature of being poor_ a form of escape.But they may have impulse control and some sense of empathy ..I have nothing to base this on other then my own experience but I can not see how urban poverty causes people to be criminals.

[Magnatomicflux]

Well they are NEVER good enough until they are at zero [[an impossible number to hit). We should strive for that each and every year.
.

You didn't miss this, did you GOAT?
http://www.detroityes.com/mb/showthread.php?t=8388

Or are you speaking about Detroit reaching that number?
If you didn't and were....sorry!

[Pingu]

I think the difference from the urban poor and the urban criminal is this: criminals have no impulse control.They want it now.They are unwilling to work. They want instant gratification.They may not be sociopaths but they have sociopath behaviors.

I know, I suck, but I'm just feeling a little bit post-happy tonight. The notion that criminals have no impulse control is complete BS. Think about that the next time you buy a bag of weed. The straight line between you and some paisano in Mexico is one defined by discipline, organization, and a keen sense for linking demand to supply.

[citylover]

I know, I suck, but I'm just feeling a little bit post-happy tonight. The notion that criminals have no impulse control is complete BS. Think about that the next time you buy a bag of weed. The straight line between you and some paisano in Mexico is one defined by discipline, organization, and a keen sense for linking demand to supply.

I don't buy weed......but I see your point.

[DetroitDad]

Cross post to Suburbs are Unsustainable.

[Pingu]

Cross post to Suburbs are Unsustainable.

You rock dude, you soooo rock! But the developing premise is, as I see it, is that there ain't no such dang thing as "suburbs". Can you dig it? I knew you could!

[DetroitDad]

You rock dude, you soooo rock! But the developing premise is, as I see it, is that there ain't no such dang thing as "suburbs". Can you dig it? I knew you could!

Not anymore....

[begingri]

According to this Freep article, homicides are the lowest since 1967, though as we all know the population was much larger then.

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/a...te=fullarticle

[Pingu]

Not anymore....

Don't get deep on me, bro. Not anymore.... what? Talk to me.

[NorthEndere]

Cases solved is one thing. I'd also like to see the number of these murders that are
1. Drug related
2. Gang related
3. Where the victim knew the person that killedhim/her

A study was done a few years back that showed nearly 70% of all homicides had a drug catalyst. That could mean someone being killed over a debt, a drug deal gone bad, etc...decriminalization of marijuana wouldn't solve the whole thing, but I'd think we could put a HUGE dent in that 70% with just that simple realization.

I suspect the vast majority of the remaining 30% are domestic violence [[though, that sometimes overlaps with drugs, of course), and that will be a much harder nut to crack.

The real statistic I want to hear about is how many of those is murders are solved and the murderers imprisoned. I forget the actual unsolved murder stats but they are very sorry. Swift, sure justice is the best path to taking the rate down to 50-100, in line with the national averages.

I'm not sure any city measures "solved" cases by incarceration rate [[that'd take a hell of a lot of resources to track), but I do know cities measure if a case is "closed", and I know that closure rates for homicide climbed under Warren to about the national average of 65% from a dismal rate of only about a third before him. In this definition, closure is a suspect apprehended and charged, I think.

BTW, to get Detroit's homicide level down to Chicago's current rate for 2010 [[another city that has recorded its fewest number of homicides since the 60's, though, as in Detroit, it's population is also down considerably) which is 15/100,000, which is still pretty high for major cities, Detroit would have to record about 140 murders next year. I want to see Detroit be the most ambitious of any city in the nation on bringing down these most symbolic of violent crimes.

[Lombaowski]

Wow, look at this graph! The murder rate went from all the way at the top to all the way at the bottom!

Now imagine that was a scatter diagram.