My guess is whichever party is in charge of redistricting [[or if there's split control), there will be two Detroit-based districts with black majorities - they'll just have to be extended into the burbs a bit more. If necessary, the redistricters could breach the 8 Mile Rd line and include all or part of Southfield, Oak Park, and Royal Oak Township.
Why am I so confident? I'm guessing the Dems wouldn't want to be seen as the ones eliminating a district represented by part of their voting base. And for the Reps, having a couple of black-majority districts makes gerrymandering easier, because it naturally clumps Dem voters in two districts with heavy Dem majorities, making it easier to create a large number of districts with relatively modest Rep majorities.
My guess is if the Dems are in charge [[fairly unlikely, as it would mean taking the Senate as well as holding the governorship), the most likely district to be eliminated would be 11th, running from Commerce Township to Belleville, through Novi, Northville, Plymouth, Livonia, Redford, Westland, and Canton). If the Reps are in charge, I would bet on the 9th [[roughly Waterford to Farmington Hills to a small part of Royal Oak to Rochester, including Pontiac, Bloomfield Township, Bloomfield Hills, and Birmingham). This is a marginal district now held by Dem Gary Peters. This assumes Peters survives his first re-election this year. If not, maybe the Reps could carve up Sander Levin's 12th [[far southeastern Oakland and Southwestern Macomb).
If there's split control [[i.e., the Dems hold the House but lose the Senate and/or the governorship), all bets are off. The last time this happened, I believe a Federal Court designed a plan because the House and Senate couldn't find a compromise.
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