Corona Virus Crisis Discussion Thread

[Zacha341]

Yes, I hear that. There was always the risk of a certain level of expectorant/ etc. to be in restaurant food [[with all that yelling and talking over plates that goes on in kitchens as part of the business). That happens in the home as well. No one died from it unless someone had a cold. But now post C-19 -- with far more protection required.... No. I'll keep cooking.

It's been pretty cool to try out new seasonings. As well as recipes.

Since 3/16 I have not consumed any food that I did not prepare myself. I even dusted off a couple of cookbooks that I have never used and tried a few new recipes.

[Zacha341]

Yes, I think in part it has to do with how fast the virus sweeps thru an aged population and how certain facilities disclose [[or delay to disclose) what is happening in that context.

What's also problematic is that relatives cannot visit or observe their loved ones to see changes, or monitor what is going on...

You think they would have figured that out back in January in Washington state..

[Canadian Visitor]

Nursing homes particularly vulnerable to COVID-19

Rivergate Terrace becomes hot spot...

https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/...from-covid-19/

There are a few discrete issues w/nursing homes.

1) The population of residents is more vulnerable than the average. A function partially of age; but also most Long-term-care residents are less well than the average in their age cohort, or they'd still be living on their own or with family in some cases.

2) Many homes have some or all residents in non-private accommodation. Shared rooms with 2-4 beds, often no more than a few feet apart. If one person in a room becomes ill it takes very little for it to spread.

3) Many homes, in an effort to keep costs down/avoid paying benefits rely heavily on part-time staff. This means many staff work 2 or more jobs at different homes. This in turn facilitates spread of any viral infection from one home to the next.

Just over 50% of all deaths from Covid in Canada have been in Long-Term-Care homes.

[Canadian Visitor]

Not really. CDC estimate for the current flu season is at 24,000 – 62,000 from an estimated 39,000,000 – 56,000,000 cases. The average number of deaths over the past nine years is 37.5K. So when the final butcher's bill for the year comes in it will be close to an average season.

The mortality rate of the two don't even compare. Covid19 is far more deadly. We've just crossed 20K Covid19 deaths in the US on from just 530K cases.

This is far from certain at this point.

The first large-scale serology testing is going on in Europe now.

Serology meaning looking at the general population, with a particular emphasis on anti-bodies to see how many people have been exposed to a given virus and better understand its spread.

One of the first of these, has taken place in Copenhagen, Denmark.

It suggests a very conservative value of 10x more infections present in the general population that confirmed to date; and possibly as many as 30x-80x.

Now, its only one study. We need to see more data. But worth considering infection rates are likely much worse than thought, which in turn means mortality rates are not as high.

First, a link to a Twitter thread, in English, discussing this:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1248655377836670978

Second, the original study in Danish.

https://www.sst.dk/-/media/Udgivelse...38B75F1EB05999

[SammyS]

Yep, pneumonia and flu deaths are WAY down this year. Like 1/2 or less of what's normal. Like 30,000 less from just FLU alone.

Covid is gonna put these other popular diseases out of business.

More bogus reporting
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archiv...lity-count.php

[Bigdd]

More bogus reporting
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archiv...lity-count.php

That's a nonsense article trying to mis-direct.

It refutes a claim that no one is making.

The claim isn't that CHINA is falsely reporting non-covid deaths as being Covid.



The claim is that Doctors here are being pushed to mark down deaths as covid when they're not,.. or when they're not a contributing factor. [[ I.E. an obeese guy with pneumonia and diabetes dies a few hours after getting admitted to hospital. Later they find his corpse tested positive for covid, and they mark that down as the primary cause.) WHY? Because if a patient comes in with pneumonia and has Obamacare Bronze plan,.. the hospital knows they're not getting paid. Because if the guy has a family, he also has a $13,800 deductible. But if he tests pos for covid [[or they just claim he did),.. the fed govt automatically gives the hospital $13,000. So the hospital goes from not getting paid anything, to collecting $13k


Tough spot to be in as a hospital admin. You wanna help people, you want to be honest, but hospitals also run on money,.. LOTS of it. And you can't help people if you're out of business.

[DeLemur]

It is certain in terms of deaths. Yes mortality rate can go down with evidence of a more infected population, but that can just reflect the higher transmission rate of coronavirus.

Coronavirus has had two months to operate here and even with mass shutdowns its killed 22K. Average flu deaths from a full year in the last 9 years are 37K. Death to death its clearly worse than the flu. The transmission rate and can either help or hurt the virus in its opportunity. Seems like its helping this one, particularly with carriers who show no symptoms.

I guess you're leaving the door open to comparing the two viruses in how they affect an individual - which makes sense if I as a person gets one or the other and am thinking about survival.
I'm comparing them in how they affect a nation which I think is more important to understanding our severe response.

This is far from certain at this point.

The first large-scale serology testing is going on in Europe now.

Serology meaning looking at the general population, with a particular emphasis on anti-bodies to see how many people have been exposed to a given virus and better understand its spread.

One of the first of these, has taken place in Copenhagen, Denmark.

It suggests a very conservative value of 10x more infections present in the general population that confirmed to date; and possibly as many as 30x-80x.

Now, its only one study. We need to see more data. But worth considering infection rates are likely much worse than thought, which in turn means mortality rates are not as high.

First, a link to a Twitter thread, in English, discussing this:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1248655377836670978

Second, the original study in Danish.

https://www.sst.dk/-/media/Udgivelse...38B75F1EB05999

[313WX]

Since 3/16 I have not consumed any food that I did not prepare myself. I even dusted off a couple of cookbooks that I have never used and tried a few new recipes.

Same here.

The cleaning up part sucks though.

[Zacha341]

^^^ Yes! You take for granted how much you eat away from home when you cannot do it. I've never washed so many dishes!! Food preparations etc.

I keep a wireless speaker and radio in kitchen to listen while cleaning after meals and cooking seeing as how much time is spent in the kitchen.

[Tig3rzhark]

I have been reading a lot about people professing cures for COVID-19.

People have been pushing conspiracy theories about this subject, and it needs to stop. I'm glad that I'm on a forum that doesn't promote them.

At least the states are taking the leadership to enact measures to slow the spread.

Like ours with the "Stay Home. Stay Safe".

Locally, we are really in trouble. As a Detroit resident, I see videos being posted, with gatherings over 50 people continuing, despite fines and jailtime. They don't wear masks, or gloves, endangering the public, spreading this virus further.

People are burning rubber, doing drag racing on the street.

This is horrible.

And the claiming of cures for this is bring false hope.

Those that claim that 37% of doctors agree to some of those cures, isn't something I would bet my life on, and I'm sure no one on this forum would either.

Stay safe, and informed everyone.

[Colombian Dan]

Now is not a good time to be black/African in China. Per the US Consulate: https://china.usembassy-china.org.cn...blic-of-china/

[Zacha341]

^^^ Yep. It's all a bit much. We can buy liquor but not seeds, plants and dirt to even start a basic victory garden.

Priorities are once again being revealed.

...As a Detroit resident, I see videos being posted, with gatherings over 50 people continuing, despite fines and jailtime. They don't wear masks, or gloves, endangering the public, spreading this virus further.

People are burning rubber, doing drag racing on the street....

[313WX]

Now is not a good time to be black/African in China. Per the US Consulate: https://china.usembassy-china.org.cn...blic-of-china/

The bolded part of your post alone would be just as accurate.

[313WX]

I have been reading a lot about people professing cures for COVID-19.

People have been pushing conspiracy theories about this subject, and it needs to stop. I'm glad that I'm on a forum that doesn't promote them.

At least the states are taking the leadership to enact measures to slow the spread.

Like ours with the "Stay Home. Stay Safe".

Locally, we are really in trouble. As a Detroit resident, I see videos being posted, with gatherings over 50 people continuing, despite fines and jailtime. They don't wear masks, or gloves, endangering the public, spreading this virus further.

People are burning rubber, doing drag racing on the street.

This is horrible.

And the claiming of cures for this is bring false hope.

Those that claim that 37% of doctors agree to some of those cures, isn't something I would bet my life on, and I'm sure no one on this forum would either.

Stay safe, and informed everyone.

I thought it was crazy that Detroit has nearly as many cases/deaths as Chicago, despite Chicago having almost 4 times as many people.

[Lowell]

This is far from certain at this point.

The first large-scale serology testing is going on in Europe now.

Serology meaning looking at the general population, with a particular emphasis on anti-bodies to see how many people have been exposed to a given virus and better understand its spread.

Good point, but if a similar large-scale serology testing had been done for the flu, I would bet that numbers of the exposed would similarly soar.

[Canadian Visitor]

Good point, but if a similar large-scale serology testing had been done for the flu, I would bet that numbers of the exposed would similarly soar.

No question Flu-rates are higher than reported, which does inflate the CFR [[case fatality rate).

But, in fact, the testing to ascertain this has already been done, and published by the CDC back in 2016.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/22/6/15-1080_article

It suggests asymptomatic level of influenza carriage at 19% in the U.S.

That compares to a much higher valuation in Covid cases.

So while the influenza CFR is likely over-stated; its not likely as over-stated at the one for Covid.

None of which diminishes the seriousness of all this; I'm merely putting facts out there to encourage informed response.

[Canadian Visitor]

I'm simply putting facts forward.

The impacts of Covid, both the virus itself and the response to it are indeed different from the Flu.

Though, the true CFR [[case fatality rate) of Covid is likely no more than double that of influenza, excepting if a healthcare system becomes overloaded/collapses, which will of course inflate deaths.

What the evidence certainly supports at this point is that Covid spreads much more quickly than the typical influenza.

The rapidity of spread is what threatens healthcare systems not designed or operated to handle surges much above 10%.

In a super-cluster event, you're seeing hospital/ICU demand spike, sometimes by over 100% in as little as a few days.

If the hospital is under-prepared for a pandemic protocol, lacking or failing to employ proper use of isolation procedures and use of PPE, the risk that a significant number of healthcare staff will both become ill; and a source of further transmission within the hospital is material.

That clearly happened in Italy, where early in the outbreak 15% of medical staff were either in treatment themselves or had to isolate at home.

That, while their system was experiencing a huge surge in demand.

The risk of influenza spreading in a healthcare setting is also material; but not likely as high as Covid; further the period of asymptomatic transmissibility with Covid likely led to unknowning spread before measures were taken.

This has been true in the U.S. and Canada as well, less so in hospitals than what was seen in Europe, but very much a problem in Long-Term Care/Nursing home settings.

Over 50% of Canada's Covid deaths have been in LTC/Nursing homes.

***

The high rate of transmission, including among asymptomatic people, further informs the public response action [[lockdowns/stay-at-homes) which obviously have their own effects on a country.

[Bong-Man]

Just my personal opinion, but I think we should all be getting a carry-out from a local restaurant once a week. All you need to do is utilize any that advertise curb-side pickup. They take your order and credit card info over the phone, and they bring your order out to your car. I don't even roll down the window. I make them leave it on the hood. When the delivery person walks away, I get out and retrieve it. There are no cash transactions allowed. Anything I purchase is reheated in the oven when I get home. If anything lives past 10 minutes at 350 degrees, we're all wasting our time. I don't get salads, cole slaw, or anything that can't be heated in the oven.

You should do this once a week for two reasons...First, they need your business. Second, it's a nice break once a week to not worry about cooking and clean-up. It restores a moment of normalcy, and makes for a less-stressful evening. Again, just my opinion.

[Dan Wesson]

That's a nonsense article trying to mis-direct.

It refutes a claim that no one is making.

The claim isn't that CHINA is falsely reporting non-covid deaths as being Covid.



The claim is that Doctors here are being pushed to mark down deaths as covid when they're not,.. or when they're not a contributing factor. [[ I.E. an obeese guy with pneumonia and diabetes dies a few hours after getting admitted to hospital. Later they find his corpse tested positive for covid, and they mark that down as the primary cause.) WHY? Because if a patient comes in with pneumonia and has Obamacare Bronze plan,.. the hospital knows they're not getting paid. Because if the guy has a family, he also has a $13,800 deductible. But if he tests pos for covid [[or they just claim he did),.. the fed govt automatically gives the hospital $13,000. So the hospital goes from not getting paid anything, to collecting $13k


Tough spot to be in as a hospital admin. You wanna help people, you want to be honest, but hospitals also run on money,.. LOTS of it. And you can't help people if you're out of business.

That's right. It has been codified that, 'When in doubt classify death due to... 'The Chinese Pneumonia Pandemic Phenomenon'.

[softailrider]

Yes, I hear that. There was always the risk of a certain level of expectorant/ etc. to be in restaurant food [[with all that yelling and talking over plates that goes on in kitchens as part of the business). That happens in the home as well. No one died from it unless someone had a cold. But now post C-19 -- with far more protection required.... No. I'll keep cooking.

It's been pretty cool to try out new seasonings. As well as recipes.

A certain level of expectorant in restaurant food? Well that sure sounds appetizing, especially in the midst of a pandemic.

[Bigdd]

We have been fortunate in that the case-rates at local hospitals has not only been low,.. but in fact there are fewer patients in hospital than during normal times.

Hospitals postponing elective procedures, and people avoiding hospitals even when they have something they would otherwise go in for have combined to reduce the need for beds more than the number of covid patients.

Also, the temporary hospitals like in Louisiana, New York, Cobo Hall etc, all remain empty, and the 2 hospital ships remain nearly empty.

It looks like they over-estimated the spread of covid, and or the social distancing was vastly more effective than they thought.

The need for 50,000 ventilators in New York never happened,.. and even most of the 4,000 units the feds shipped them remain in NY warehouses.

Sinai Grace is WAY understaffed though,.. as far as nurses go, and are offering much higher wages to draw nurses in,... but other hospitals are doing fine, and seem to have plenty of PPE and other supplies.

So perhaps avoid Sinai Grace for a little while.


Hopefully we can open this baby up in 2 weeks.

All that said,.. it has moved up into the top 12 causes of death, and done so in only 3 months. Hopefully this DOES have a season,.. and starts tapering down even faster than it already has. Perhaps 10 million are infected here in the states ATM,... not sure how many need to be before heard immunity starts doing it's thing.

CDC numbers from 2017; except the Covid number, which is current

Heart disease:………….......……....…. 647,457

Cancer:………………...........…….......... 599,108

Accidents [[unintentional injuries):.. 169,936

Chronic lower respiratory diseases:.. 160,201

Stroke:……………………….…................. 146,383

Alzheimer’s disease:………....….....…… 121,404

Diabetes:……………………….........….......… 83,564

Influenza and pneumonia:…………......... 55,672

Nephritis, nephrotic synd, & nephrosis: 50,633

Septicemia:……………………….............….. 30,198

Essential hypertension:………….....…….. 24,465

Covid-19:………………………..............….. 23,000 [[so far)

[Former_Detroiter]

Same here.

The cleaning up part sucks though.

True. I'm using my dishwasher a lot more.

[Zacha341]

Hah. Didn't mean to be gross but people talking over food [[without masks as the normal procedure) is going entail this at some level here and there...

Look at the cooking snows and see the waiters and chefs talking loud and yelling as they prep/ handle plate to be taken out to the floor.

A certain level of expectorant in restaurant food? Well that sure sounds appetizing, especially in the midst of a pandemic.

[Zacha341]

I'm convinced and ready for a break from the cooking BMan. I'd sure like a Pad Tai dish about now!! Whew!

...First, they need your business. Second, it's a nice break once a week to not worry about cooking and clean-up. It restores a moment of normalcy, and makes for a less-stressful evening. Again, just my opinion.

[Richard]

That's right. It has been codified that, 'When in doubt classify death due to... 'The Chinese Pneumonia Pandemic Phenomenon'.

A national emergency was declared,hospitals will be reimbursed for anything virus related by the Feds,no matter what ones income may be.

The Feds cut checks no questions asked,so if you pass from something less billable then the virus then it would be more profitable to bill virus related.

National emergency,any dollar spent by the state related to the virus,will be reimbursed by the Feds.

Before it was a cost shared based,States had to kick in 25% but that was waved by the Feds from the start.

For those in a position when disasters are declared it is a massive cash grab of fed money,it is just replacing a $400 toilet seat with a $400 aspirin.

CCP virus- Chinese Communist Party virus.

Watch what happens next,the states will say,our state revenue is down directly related to the virus during a national emergency and will look for reimbursement.

That is the reason we keep hearing from the Feds,we are not taking the reins,we are allowing the individual states to decide events.

Otherwise if the Feds took control then 325 million American could put in a claim of being directly effected by the virus,and could claim compensation.

Being on lock down you are directly effected,imagine the trillions that would be.

Another reason some were pushing for a national disaster declaration verses a national emergency.

New York bury’s 1500 unclaimed bodies in mass graves every year,without the view of the camera,now that the cameras are on,they are virus related mass graves and reimbursed by the Feds.