Corona Virus Crisis Discussion Thread

[MikeM]

One more.....

https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-co...eaths-and-maps

Yes! Thank you!

[Maof]

Yes! Thank you!

No problem.

[CassTechGrad]

If your over 60 and get sick you better make your peace with GOD cause about 9 out of 10 are gonna die.

https://www.waynecounty.com/

[Dan Wesson]

Wow i've seen some real doom and gloom on tv and the internets but the above post takes the cake!

Congrats!

On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.

[Seven&wyo]

If your over 60 and get sick you better make your peace with GOD cause about 9 out of 10 are gonna die.

https://www.waynecounty.com/

That dashboard is awful. It doesn't show how many deaths had underlying health conditions which is a MAJOR factor. In NYC it shows that even 65+ without health conditions are a much much lower death rate than those with.

[Bigdd]

If your over 60 and get sick you better make your peace with GOD cause about 9 out of 10 are gonna die.

https://www.waynecounty.com/

Well,... you can't compare any of those 3 numbers [[deaths, cases, survivors) to the other 2.

ALL deaths are counted of course,...

The survivor numbers are 30 days out of date,.. [[to make certain they really are "survivors"). As of a couple days ago that number is easily double the number quoted in the news.

And based on anti-body testing, it is estimated that 25 - 80 times as many people have had Covid as have been tested positive for it [["Cases" number).

So for the 80+ age group,.. we're likely talking about 418 deaths out of 28,000 - 70,000 cases, or somewhere between 1 dying out of 50, and 1 dying out of 125. [[not 9 out of 10)


I the one thing I think the chart CLEARLY shows is that people 50 and under should be out working. Perhaps people under 60 also.

[Bigdd]

New study projects 68,000 deaths-of-despair-among-americans-due-to-the-coronavirus-pandemic

I wonder if our governor is looking at ANY of the data? Or just going by feelings?

https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/...irus-pandemic/

[aj3647]

New study projects 68,000 deaths-of-despair-among-americans-due-to-the-coronavirus-pandemic

I wonder if our governor is looking at ANY of the data? Or just going by feelings?

https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/...irus-pandemic/

68,000 over the next decade, you left that second part off, conveniently. So that would be 6800 a year. Now, how many people has COVID killed in the last six weeks? Oh yeah, 80,000.

Ohhhhhh right though, we can't say someone's death is due to COVID just because they tested positive for it and then died of respiratory failure a week later, we can't link the two! But if someone with a history of chronic alcoholism drinks themselves to death, well that's 100% the fault of Whitmer's business restrictions.

What a lovely double standard you all have when it comes to statistics and models!

[aj3647]

Metro Times infiltrates private anti-Whitmer and pro-"Re Open" Michigan Facebook groups, finds dozens and dozens of posts threatening to kill Gretchen Whitmer or openly advocating for violence.

https://www.metrotimes.com/news-hits...lly-in-lansing

Many of those openly calling for violence also said they would be present at the next armed protest in Lansing.

[enio]

New study projects 68,000 deaths-of-despair-among-americans-due-to-the-coronavirus-pandemic

I wonder if our governor is looking at ANY of the data? Or just going by feelings?

https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/...irus-pandemic/

You do realize that the term "Deaths of Despair " was coined by two Princeton economists Anne Case and Angus Deaton
describing how the shortcomings of capitalism adversely affect the physical and mental health of the white working class. [[Angus won a Nobel Prize in Economics a few years ago.) J.D. Vance talks about the same thing in Hillbilly Elegy.

This is the social group that wants to shoot up the capitol and kill Whitme. What possible incentive does she have to help the pickup drivin', camo wearin, gun totin' people attending "Judgment Day" rally?

[Bigdd]

finds dozens and dozens of posts threatening to kill Gretchen Whitmer or openly advocating for violence.

https://www.metrotimes.com/news-hits...lly-in-lansing

Many of those openly calling for violence also said they would be present at the next armed protest in Lansing.

That's disgusting.

We need to obey our public officials, even when we disagree with them.

We hope and pray that the Governor will begin to look at the data, and start to re-open things. Locking down the young and healthy is not in anyone's best interest [[from both a health, and an economic perspective).

We survived Granholm,.. and we can survive another 2.5 years under Gov Whitmer too.

[401don]

Wuhan has another small outbreak and plans to test all 11 million people in the next 10 days. Just curious, how do you get that many people tested in such a short time without them being packed together in lines or on transit?

[aj3647]

Locking down the young and healthy is not in anyone's best interest [[from both a health, and an economic perspective).

Care to share your evidence on that claim from the health perspective?

[Bigdd]

Care to share your evidence on that claim from the health perspective?

So you're wanting me to come up with what neither you or the governor have?

Hmm,. ok, I'll give it stab.

First off, you should note that the vast majority of people getting it ARE the ones in lock-down, so we KNOW that doesn't work.

And epidemiologists tell us that our immune system gets weaker as we quarantine,.. so that's not a good idea to do for too long.

The vaccine is almost certainly NOT going to work. The method of injecting RNA [[as opposed to proteins) as a method of vaccination has never worked, is highly risky, and as such has never been approved by regulators.

Drugs are a possible option,.. but it's unwise to pin our hopes on that alone.


It looks like our only real way out of this may be heard immunity. If 60-70% of the people have had it, and have anti-bodies,.. we'll pretty much be in the clear. Especially if we can achieve that before Summer. And it's looking like 30% or more of us already have had it.

So what we WANT is for all those who aren't at risk of severe symptoms or death to become immune,.. either by being one of the 80+ percent that get it, but never have any symptoms,.. or the next 16% that have mild symptoms and don't need to go to the hospital. Unfortunately a few percent will need to go to the hospital.

Basically everyone are under 55 or so that don't have pre-existing health conditions should NOT be in lock-down.

By quarantining them also,... we not only prolong this,. but we put those WITH pre-existing conditions and the elderly at continued risk.

We can't do this for 6 months or a year like the governor seems to want,... and the longer we prevent heard immunity,. the more of the vulnerable are going to die.

On top of that,.. we're crushing the medical system,.. who we may need one day.


I'm sure you'll laugh at me,.. while providing nothing as an alternative. No ideas, no plan. Just doom and gloom, and criticize everything.

[Zacha341]

A full-on totalitarian, authoritarian system. That's how for the most part. There's no blog-debating, no advocation of person rights, or political wrangling. You comply or face consequences.

I've a friend who's niece worked on a job site in one of the inner China provinces a few years. She and hubby were visiting back here when the virus first broke out in Wuhan. They couldn't get back readily - gave up their apartment/ personal property as a loss.

It was just too constricting to stay as time went on. They reported that culturally inner China is far, FAR different socially, and for certain in re. to the rule of law and personal rights.

Wuhan has another small outbreak and plans to test all 11 million people in the next 10 days. Just curious, how do you get that many people tested in such a short time without them being packed together in lines or on transit?

[Gistok]

That's disgusting.

We need to obey our public officials, even when we disagree with them.

We hope and pray that the Governor will begin to look at the data, and start to re-open things. Locking down the young and healthy is not in anyone's best interest [[from both a health, and an economic perspective).

We survived Granholm,.. and we can survive another 2.5 years under Gov Whitmer too.

You forgot out we survived 12 years under Engler... we in Michigan are very resilient...

[Gistok]

First off, you should note that the vast majority of people getting it ARE the ones in lock-down, so we KNOW that doesn't work.

And epidemiologists tell us that our immune system gets weaker as we quarantine,.. so that's not a good idea to do for too long.

I call Bullshit...

People who are IN QUARANTINE can't get it unless they have contact with someone who has it or is asymptomatic...

And people in quarantine who are affected by stress and/or alcohol abuse that lowers their immune system... not simply because they are in quarantine.

[aj3647]

So you're wanting me to come up with what neither you or the governor have?

Dude, all I did was ask you to prove your claim. If being asked for evidence is perceived by you as a personal attack, then maybe re-evaluate what you're saying.

For the record, I'm not coming up with anything that the White House's own Coronavirus Task Force didn't tell the U.S. Senate TODAY. But hey, why listen to the nation's premiere public health experts when we have Bigdd, MD! Or is it PhD? What exactly are your professional qualifications again?

As for the rest of your screed, it seemed to be a nice mix of your own uninformed opinion, unproven claims, and a healthy dose of outright falsehoods.

Let's start with the falsehoods:
1) Gretchen Whitmer has NEVER said she wants the lockdown to last "six months to a year." That is an outright lie. If it isn't, then provide a link to her saying that.
2) Letting the virus run wild through the population to develop "herd immunity" will not SAVE lives, as you falsely claim. In fact, that would do the exact opposite of that, it will maximize the death toll. And having everyone get it within a relatively short time frame will overwhelm the health care system, resulting in deaths even among those who otherwise could have survived with proper medical care as medical resources become scarce. You do understand that is the ENTIRE point behind the concept of "flattening the curve", right?

Now for the unproven claims:
1) "have anti-bodies,.. we'll pretty much be in the clear."
Reality: There is no data to suggest that surviving the virus confers PERMANENT immunity. In fact, most viral infections do not confer permanent immunity, that's a rarity. For example, the common cold [[caused by a virus) leaves you immune from re-infection for about a year. That's it. I've seen scientific estimates that antibodies from SARS-CoV-2 might only confer 6-9 months worth of immunity. But we don't know that yet. Maybe you're immune for six years...and maybe you're immune for six months. The next unproven assumption here is that everyone who recovers has sufficient levels of anti-bodies to confer immunity. Again, unproven and most likely false. One study from China found that 30% of those who recovered from a mild case of COVID-19 developed usually low levels of antibodies, this is even more likely if you are young and healthy.
Source: https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/sc...le31318137.ece
2) "And it's looking like 30% or more of us already have had it."
Again, not proven. Yes, there have been some antibody testing in places like CA and NY, but you can't extrapolate results from high-population density urban areas that were hard hit by COVID-19 to the entire rest of the country. And where the hell are you getting 30%? No serological survey result anywhere suggest a number even remotely that high for the U.S. population. Even hardest-hit NYC wouldn't be more than 25% based on serological surveys right now.
Source: https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...annot-tell-us/

Your opinion:
1) "Basically everyone are under 55 or so that don't have pre-existing health conditions should NOT be in lock-down." [[This opinion is NOT shared by the public health and medical communities).


Data, friend. Provide it. Please.

[Maof]

So you're wanting me to come up with what neither you or the governor have?

Hmm,. ok, I'll give it stab.

First off, you should note that the vast majority of people getting it ARE the ones in lock-down, so we KNOW that doesn't work.

And epidemiologists tell us that our immune system gets weaker as we quarantine,.. so that's not a good idea to do for too long.

The vaccine is almost certainly NOT going to work. The method of injecting RNA [[as opposed to proteins) as a method of vaccination has never worked, is highly risky, and as such has never been approved by regulators.

Drugs are a possible option,.. but it's unwise to pin our hopes on that alone.


It looks like our only real way out of this may be heard immunity. If 60-70% of the people have had it, and have anti-bodies,.. we'll pretty much be in the clear. Especially if we can achieve that before Summer. And it's looking like 30% or more of us already have had it.

So what we WANT is for all those who aren't at risk of severe symptoms or death to become immune,.. either by being one of the 80+ percent that get it, but never have any symptoms,.. or the next 16% that have mild symptoms and don't need to go to the hospital. Unfortunately a few percent will need to go to the hospital.

Basically everyone are under 55 or so that don't have pre-existing health conditions should NOT be in lock-down.

By quarantining them also,... we not only prolong this,. but we put those WITH pre-existing conditions and the elderly at continued risk.

We can't do this for 6 months or a year like the governor wants,... and the longer we prevent heard immunity,. the more of the vulnerable are going to die.

On top of that,.. we're crushing the medical system,.. who we may need one day.


I'm sure you'll laugh at me,.. while providing nothing as an alternative. No ideas, no plan. Just doom and gloom, and criticize everything.

It was never said that the "vast majority of people getting it are in lock-down". They are finding some cases, many with underlying conditions and most likely, getting the virus from others in the household doing their grocery shopping and/or other errands.

And where did you hear that the governor wants to shut the state down for 6 months to a year?

[Richard]

^ they are pushing for extended benefits up to January with up to $6000 per household,thier view is if the service workers can collect more staying at home they will,and that forces a majority of the economy closed.

https://www.npr.org/2020/05/12/85473...navirus-relief

Look at what they are pushing to fund and tell me that it is not a progressive narrative that they have been campaigning on,of course she will go along with it.

If she does not support it then she will be going against the parties wishes.

She does not really have much of a choice but to follow along.

[Bigdd]

It was never said that the "vast majority of people getting it are in lock-down". They are finding some cases, many with underlying conditions and most likely, getting the virus from others in the household doing their grocery shopping and/or other errands.

And where did you hear that the governor wants to shut the state down for 6 months to a year?

In New York [[which, as a percentage basis shouldn't be too far off everywhere else, though their total numbers are way higher), 66% or people who acquired the disease were sheltering in place.
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/66-of-...o-stayed-home/

If that's true,.. then why bother?

The idea was supposedly to flatten the curve, so as not to overwhelm the hospitals,.. but some very major hospitals have 1 or less Covid patients now. And all those huge temporary hospitals [[Cobo, Javid, Army ones in Louisiana, the hospital ships etc) have all shut down from lack of need.

So we probably should have eased up on the lock-down 3 weeks ago [[for the stuff we eased up on last week like fishing, golfing, construction). And we should be easing up this week on the next round of things.



As to the governor,.. she hasn't come out and said directly said that she wants to stay at home for a year,.. but repeatedly she has hinted at that.

A week ago I heard her say that she thought this might last 6 months to a year until we're back to normal [[but not necessarily "locked down"),.. and a couple days ago she said;

"Until we have a vaccine or we can do more to keep people safe, we're safer at home,"

Which seems to indicate that her Stay Home order will be in place for much longer than the current date of May 28th. [[which got extended from Apr 30 to May 15th, and then again a couple days ago to May 28th)

https://www.fox2detroit.com/news/mic...uring-restarts

[Zacha341]

Yet, even the stay at home is NOT absolute. I know some who will rarely leave their homes of fear from contracting C-19. Marking time on their calendars when they do leave the house [[that's too much like official prison life for me). I am not of the 'it's just like the flu' crowd, but I DO go out beyond my carefully planned necessities for walks, exercise - I'd even bike but don't have one.

Here's the governor current executive order:

https://www.michigan.gov/whitmer/0,9...8460--,00.html

Said order details [[as exception to stay inside) outside activities clearly:

Exceptions.

1. Individuals may leave their home or place of residence, and travel as necessary:
   
   1. To engage in outdoor recreational activity, consistent with remaining at least six feet from people from outside the individual’s household. Outdoor recreational activity includes walking, hiking, running, cycling, boating, golfing, or other similar activity, as well as any comparable activity for those with limited mobility.

[GMan]

Interesting set of interviews with biostatistician on the approach of social distancing effectiveness: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k0Q4naYOYDw

[Maof]

^ they are pushing for extended benefits up to January with up to $6000 per household,thier view is if the service workers can collect more staying at home they will,and that forces a majority of the economy closed.

https://www.npr.org/2020/05/12/85473...navirus-relief

Look at what they are pushing to fund and tell me that it is not a progressive narrative that they have been campaigning on,of course she will go along with it.

If she does not support it then she will be going against the parties wishes.

She does not really have much of a choice but to follow along.

This doesn't have anything to do with Whitmer supposedly saying she wants to shut the state down for 6 months to a year.

[Zacha341]

^^^ The federal government cannot [[withstanding partisan politics) replace employment income indefinitely!

There'll need to be staged, re-opening of various regions, educational institutions and business etc. state wide.