Coronavirus: Threat Beyond Politics [For Political Discussions of CoV]

[Richard]

What they are not telling you though,is the ones that pass on,they come back out of the ground at night and pass on the infection during the night.

An anonymous unconfirmed source high up in somebody's government reported that you cannot even tell they have come back.

They say the only way to tell is by wearing specialized glasses and instead of the eyes being white they will have a greenish tint.

But I would believe less then a third of what China reports.

The numbers infected jumped up in China from 69,000 to 70,548 in the past day,less then an 8 hour update period.

[Dumpling]

You all know I'm not the "don't worry be happy" poster on here.
However many medical experts are quoted as saying we need to
worry about the flu that's here rather than the coronavirus that's
coming. You all know I posted on Gannon's flu thread before [[RIP
Gannon you were a presence).

So. I spent a while comparing. The flu that's here varies wildly
from year to year as well as by subtype and which populations
are hit hardest. Overall, in general, the flu that's here will cause
about one death per 2,000 persons per year. That number
encompasses both those who have been recently vaccinated
and those who have not. Only about half of us get vaccinated
each year. This means we come nowhere near close enough
to give ourselves "herd immunity" that will protect vulnerable
individuals that cannot be immunized.

If everyone who could get immunized were to get immunized
there would be a death rate from influenza more like 1 out
of 4,000. Handwashing helps, thank you everyone that washes
their hands. I did read somewhere, though without enough
details to make a solid case, that it only prevents about one
in five respiratory illnesses however.

The new coronavirus looks to infect two new people for each
infected person. It appears that one in every fifty persons
that catches it will die from it. The cruise ship nightmare at
Yokohama will give researchers better data on this.

[Dumpling]

COVID-19.

One in every fifty means that per every million persons infected,
20,000 will die. This is really quite high as compared to other
causes of death, if the pandemic sweeps through in a year or two
or less. So for a city of 600,000, for example, Detroit, 10,000
to 12,000 will die. There's few things we need less than this
coronavirus.

[Dumpling]

There were about 3,700 passengers and crew aboard the Diamond
Princess cruise ship that was stricken with the COVID-19 coronavirus.

As many as a quarter of these, 925 passengers and crew, may eventually be diagnosed as positive for the coronavirus. Of these, so far 3 have
died. For well-cared-for patients that were promptly identified the mortality rate is about one in every 300.

[Richard]

They are still reporting that a majority of the deaths are aged 65 and up with weakened immune systems,and the newest curve ball is some of the reported ones are not showing a fever,which kinda makes it hard to control border wise.

The biggest impact is happening with the economy,much of China is locked down,one family member receives a pass to get food supplies,outside of that few are going to work and money reserves for the business are running low.

The Dow dropped 800 points this morning,wiping out all gains for the year based on the Coronavirus.

We have stopped excepting goods at the ports,so when the inventory starts running down,prices will rise.

I was watching Canadian news and people have stopped going to Chinese restaurants out of fear and they reported 40% revenue drops.

We have become a nation of on demand shipping where nobody really stocks inventory,I am thinking probably by June we are going to start seeing shortages and price hikes if they do not get this under control.

Remember What happened when the auto manufacturers were stalled because of the supply chain disruption.

[Zacha341]

I am realist about this beyond PC. It's worse than China initially reported, and far worse than what they would ever update:

Coronavirus Live Updates: Outbreaks Raise Fears of Pandemic

[bust]

And this just happened:

A Miami man who flew to China worried he might have coronavirus. He may owe thousands.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/hea...240476806.html

How many Americans are going to skip getting tested in order to avoid situations like this because they're poorly insured or uninsured, and our medical care is outrageously expensive?

Even with what passes for decent insurance these days the deductibles are often so high people may choose not to.

Providing good affordable health care to all keeps us all safer. Lacking it puts us all at much greater risk.

[Zacha341]

Virus can still be beaten, too early to declare pandemic: WHO [declares]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKCN20I0N8

[hybridy]

I went out last night to casually peruse my local home improvement big box store only to find most of the N95 Masks, and respirators were sold out. Walgreens, CVS, etc have been perennially sold out online for more than a month. There were a few 3-packs of 3M masks that grabbed. I also grabbed a few cases of water, isopropyl alcohol, bleach + hand sanitizer. I fully expect CoV-19 is coming to our shores and is going to have wide ranging impacts. I've also been stocking up on paper products and non-perishables, presuming there will be shortages in stores.

With my kids in primary school and daycare, I believe I will need to be prepared to shelter in place for a week or more. My employer has notified all employees to self-quarantine for 14 days when/if they begin to show symptoms, but the infectious period is prior to any symptoms even presenting. I have little faith the feds or our local leaders have any capacity to get out ahead of this.

[Richard]

^ wise moves,everything you buy is going to be something that you will consume over the course of the year anyways.

80% of the population will wait until the last minute,I have seen fist fights in stores over a $3 case of bottled water.

The government has always been reactive verse proactive so it is really up to the individual to look out for themselves.

The lates is a cure by August at the earliest.

The irony is the masks that China sold us for 50c can be sold back to them for $20 that is why the shortages.

Italy is already blocking streets into the cities,if this progresses a lot of the weaker countries that are in financial straights now will be pushed over the edge.

Unless the government has a plan to freeze bills then it will be hard to be on home lockdown for a couple of months,people still have mortgages and rent to pay.

Stock up on ammo,if this gets crazy so do people.

Update: after the CDC meeting this morning they are looking at 1 year to 1.5 years for a vaccine.

The bad part is in the US the tests they were using were defective,so they do not know how many may be already infected in the US.

Timeline is 3 weeks for the proper test kits from Japan.

[oladub]

Isn't it odd that a country that can make an atomic bomb and send people to the moon can't whip out batches of masks? The lines and back orders for N-95 masks are getting long. However, more available surgical masks seem to work almost as well [[against the flu) and are more available. Thoughts about why they work almost as well include that although surgical maps cannot strain out viruses, they do stop cough droplets and reduce touching of the face.

"Health officials in the United States warned Tuesday that the spread of the novel coronavirus in the country appears inevitable, marking a significant change in tone". "Ultimately, we expect we will see community spread in the United States,” Nancy Messonnier, a top official at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told reporters. “It’s not a question of if this will happen but when this will happen and how many people in this country will have severe illnesses.”

The good news includes that some countries including Germany and Malaysia have eliminated or nearly eliminated all cases.

Joh Hopkins daily update of cases worldwide and by country: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

[Zacha341]

Let's hope it does not hit the homeless concentrations of the US such as part of California. Those areas are plaque-ready as it stands.

I feel for anyone who'd booked travel abroad. Most being cancelled or needing to cancel! Anyone up for a cruise? Ughh!

[Zacha341]

'This could be bad': Top CDC doctor contradicts Trump and warns it's 'not a question of if but WHEN'...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...-pandemic.html

[Canadian Visitor]

Enough w/the paranoia!

The published mortality rate is 2%, thus far; that is right in line w/normal, every day, influenza.

Moreover Canada's mortality rate through 11 cases thus far is zero.

That isn't anything special except to say a highly developed nation with a response plan in place can manage this well, presuming every other country doesn't Eff' it up.

I'm not suggesting it isn't a real virus, that's a real issue, causing real deaths or that isn't regrettable or tragic for those involved.

It is.

Just as it is when people die from influenza or a host of other communicable diseases.

But yet we don't panic about the flu like this.

Ratchet it back.

Don't buy bloody ammo, FFS

Its always wise to have an emergency set of supplies in the home if one can afford it, particularly food, which doesn't need cooking [[covers any disaster where there's a power outage. )

Masks are fine, but have very limited efficacy for most purposes.

Right now, the issue is moderate containment, and making sure health care is properly resourced and available to all who need it.

That's it.

That may change; but then again, an asteroid may impact earth tomorrow and kill all life.

Not likely, would suck for all of us, but its not worth getting worked up about or buying ammo.

Good precautions, appropriate flight restrictions and border controls.

Government contingency plans.

Hospitals with adequate capacity.

Paid Sick Days legislation in states that don't have that, allowing people to self-isolate w/o fearing losing a job or the money to pay the mortgage/rent.

[Ray1936]

Forms of the flu come and go. Normally healthy people rarely die from any form of influenza. Just sayin'.

[Zacha341]

I'm not talking about guns, but my primary eh-um 'ammo' is basic hand-washing. A practiced I have been engaged in for decades.

The minute I walk into my home from being out, working, touching a myriad of germ laden surfaces I wash my hands with liquid soap. Including my finger tips. The water always runs dirty and I don't do construction work.

I'm not the howard-hughes germaphobe type but I don't need to bring germs from outside into my home. My own germs are enough.

I rarely get sick, so I'll continue my practice -- including hand-washing after handling a menu at public restaurants, when possible.

[Johnnny5]

I rarely get sick, so I'll continue my practice -- including hand-washing after handling a menu at public restaurants, when possible.

If only the cooks in the back of the restaurant were as responsible.
Just a guess, but I think the restaurant industry is going to take a massive hit if this takes hold here in the U.S. Some are already struggling in an otherwise strong economy, a month or two of lost business will put many of them out of business.

[Richard]

I'm not talking about guns, but my primary eh-um 'ammo' is basic hand-washing. A practiced I have been engaged in for decades.

The minute I walk into my home from being out, working, touching a myriad of germ laden surfaces I wash my hands with liquid soap. Including my finger tips. The water always runs dirty and I don't do construction work.

I'm not the howard-hughes germaphobe type but I don't need to bring germs from outside into my home. My own germs are enough.

I rarely get sick, so I'll continue my practice -- including hand-washing after handling a menu at public restaurants, when possible.

The problem is that it is also airborn,3’ distance from people,but then it lands on surfaces,so you cannot really touch anything.

Like was posted though was a majority of the related deaths are aged 59 and up with previous underlying issues.

I think if we quarantine everybody under the age of 59 we would be okay.

The irony of it all is the head of the health department in Iran has it.

Stock up on ammo anyways,if not needed the wakos want to increase the price 50% so you can resell it at a profit of it all blows over.

I think we should build a wall on the Canadian border to stop the spread,just in case.

Detroit is safe because you guys can protect the river to stop crossings but it is the other parts that need attention.

Italy is funny,they cordoned off the cities but their air space still shows hundreds of flights arriving and departing.So much for containment.

Last year the flu overwhelmed the UKs hospitals beyond capacity and China is constructing 8 new hospitals ground up just to deal with this.I would not rely to much on reserving a bed.

People are quick to call paranoia but it is like anything else you prepare for the worst case scenario in advance,it’s a little late to start thinking about it after the fact.

It is just a few simple steps.

The tough one is with the French and Latinos etc that it is just second nature to greet with a peck on the cheek they have to readjust a lifetime for no contact.

WHO says containment is the key to stop it from becoming a pandemic,no way that is happening when we have become a global economy and you could have it and not even know it while traveling.

[Zacha341]

Yes, outside of institutional cooking, culinary can be a very fragile industry and I plan to eat out less! A good habit anyhow as I do like my own food/ recipes and trying to manage my sugar and carb intake.

I am DONE with buffets where multiple people handle, the handles of the food at the troughs - and for sure more germs are part of the 'offerings'

I also try to take care re. touching my face or putting my hands in my mouth during the day as I work heavily with the public.

But as Richard commented, and I have learned, this virus is air-born and the most basic of masks are getting hard to find.

If only the cooks in the back of the restaurant were as responsible.
Just a guess, but I think the restaurant industry is going to take a massive hit if this takes hold here in the U.S. Some are already struggling in an otherwise strong economy, a month or two of lost business will put many of them out of business.

[Richard]

Proper cooked food temperature is supposed to be 140 degrees,if one is receiving cooked food under that temp they should be wary from the start.

The virus is thought to spread mainly from person-to-person.

• Between people who are in close contact with one another [[within about 6 feet)
• Via respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes.
• These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs.

CDC Web site

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...nsmission.html


Really just treat others like one normally does if you know they have a cold,but the amount of those in public that do not cover their nose or mouth is crazy.

The link posted also mentions now it can be up to 14 days before you know you have it,so the odds of being able to narrow down to where you may have contracted it will be slim.

Before everybody else does,check auto body supply stores for masks.

It will not just be Restaurants,it will be anywhere there is a large group of people,movies,concerts,crowded sidewalks,workplace etc.

We are still showing triple revenue sense 2016,it’s the fad restaurants opening and closing rapidly,everybody likes tacos and craft brews but when you put one in every block the odds of survival are not in your favor.

I have seen some long term establishments closing in Detroit but most seem to be it was time to retire by the owners.Which makes sense to do when the economy is good and real estate prices high.

[Zacha341]

Coronavirus maps: A visual guide to the outbreak

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51235105

[oladub]

Coronavirus maps: A visual guide to the outbreak
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51235105

The two graphs in this article indicate that the death rate from corona virus has been 3.47% and 3.41%. It may be lower in richer countries also benefitting from China's trial and errors.[[—The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention is reporting COVID-19 is up to 20 times more deadly than the flu, with a fatality rate of about 2.3% [[in the U.S., seasonal flu's fatality rate is about 0.1%))

"The CDC warned of coronavirus inevitability in the U.S. “Ultimately, we expect we will see community spread in the United States,” Nancy Messonnier [[Rod Rosenstein's sister), a top official at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told reporters. “It’s not a question of if this will happen but when this will happen and how many people in this country will have severe illnesses.”

"Among those ages 80 and older, the death rate was 14.8%, compared with 8.0% for those ages 70 to 79; 3.6% for those ages 60 to 69; 1.3% for those ages 50 to 59; 0.4% for those ages 40 to 49, and 0.2% for those ages 10 to 39. No deaths have been reported among children from birth to age 9."

[hybridy]

Enough w/the paranoia!

The published mortality rate is 2%, thus far; that is right in line w/normal, every day, influenza.

False. Influenza mortality rate is 0.1%
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

We also don’t know if CoV-19 will/ can mutate. 20% of all cases are classified as critical. Any hospitalized patient needs to be housed in an ‘airborne isolation’ room. Typically this is less than 10% of total patient rooms on the overall unit. This may force hospitals to shut down entire bed floors to only admit isolation patients. This will create tremendous strain on our healthcare infrastructure.
Ex: CA bungled the first case:

https://www.davisenterprise.com/local-news/newly-diagnosed-coronavirus-patient-being-treated-at-uc-davis-medical-center/

I’m not paranoid, but I’m not looking forward to major disruptions in my life. Thus I will make even minimal preparations. I just don’t believe people are taking this very seriously, but maybe they should. If only, as practice runs for the future. These events aren’t going away.

[Richard]

Not to pile it on but you can also contract through your eyes,so masks and eye protection,that is how the doctors contracted it even with a mask.

Push comes to shove one could probably cut a tee shirt into strips that would cover your nose and mouth in a couple of layers and fasten behind the head and dampen it with water.

It works for tear gas and smoke anyways.

They are saying it came from the bats,the epicenter had a farmers market of sorts where they sold wild animals,maybe a bat sneezed and spread it?

I think it is nuts to call people paranoid,it does not cost that much to be prepared and if you wait until they tell you to prepare,it will be to late,because it will be a mad rush and probably spread it even more with mass crowds.

People with kids will have it worse with stir crazy if it is recommended to stay indoors,books and board games ?

Of course with the internet a cell phone will keep them occupied for at least a year.

But in order to have cell service,people will have to show up to work.

It is interesting to see the cities on lockdown in China,deserted streets,nobody driving around,heck try that here when a hurricane goes through and people are hunkered down in their homes,everybody else is out looting.

Can goods,bags of rice,non perishables etc. nothing happens you can still eat it.

I am thinking push comes to shove,I can anchor my boat 1 mile off shore for awhile and eat fish,but then again the summer storms that pop up may get me before the virus.

Interesting how the foreign news reporting is more in depth on what is going on,with YouTube I watch France24 in English and DW news is Berlin based.

[Zacha341]

^^^ Yeah the foreign news sources are less bound by the same PC constraints of our news. They have their own.

Even the DMail gets it right sometimes and where their words fall short, their photos speak volumes often!