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  1. #1

    Default Detroit's Population in 2018

    This week the Census Bureau released information for cities from their 2018 survey. The population loss in Detroit
    continues but at a much muted rate. The Census Bureauís estimate is that Detroit had 672,681 residents in 2018, down about 1500 from their 2017 estimate. From 2010 to 2014, the city lost an average of 7,800 residents each year; from 2014 to 2018, Detroit lost an average of 2500 per year and only 1500 in the last year.
    Detroit continues to become diverse. From 2014 to 2018, the white population rose by 5% and, for the first time since about 2004 now exceeds 100,000. The migration of African Americans to the suburbs apparently continues with a loss of 3 percent from 2014 to 2018. The Asian population grew 25% from 2014 to 2018 thanks, perhaps,to a growing population in Banglavillage. The cityís Hispanic population was up 10% from 2014 to 2018.
    These are estimates from a Census Bureau survey of about 5100 Detroit households. It will be interesting to see the results of Census 2020. Let's hope the Detroit and
    Michigan complete count committees help to get everyone counted.

  2. #2

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by renf View Post
    This week the Census Bureau released information for cities from their 2018 survey. The population loss in Detroit
    continues but at a much muted rate. The Census Bureauís estimate is that Detroit had 672,681 residents in 2018, down about 1500 from their 2017 estimate. From 2010 to 2014, the city lost an average of 7,800 residents each year; from 2014 to 2018, Detroit lost an average of 2500 per year and only 1500 in the last year.
    Detroit continues to become diverse. From 2014 to 2018, the white population rose by 5% and, for the first time since about 2004 now exceeds 100,000. The migration of African Americans to the suburbs apparently continues with a loss of 3 percent from 2014 to 2018. The Asian population grew 25% from 2014 to 2018 thanks, perhaps,to a growing population in Banglavillage. The cityís Hispanic population was up 10% from 2014 to 2018.
    These are estimates from a Census Bureau survey of about 5100 Detroit households. It will be interesting to see the results of Census 2020. Let's hope the Detroit and
    Michigan complete count committees help to get everyone counted.
    Census yearly estimates are not accurate enough to detect a difference of 1500 people. It's well within the margin of error.

  3. #3

    Default

    Yeah these 1000 something loses every year are annoying and I'm at the point where I'm not sure I believe it they're counting the demolition program as a loss of people and that's not accurate.
    Last edited by Metro25; September-28-19 at 05:56 PM.

  4. #4

    Default

    Also interesting data for cities change in white population from 2010-2017

    Baltimore: -3.3%
    Buffalo: -7.1%
    Chicago: 4.5%
    Cleveland: -4.4%
    Detroit: 27.4%
    Milwaukee: -5.9%
    Philadelphia: -3.1%
    Pittsburgh: -0.7%
    St. Louis: -0.2%

    I got it from Pete Saunders twitter who's an urban planner in Chicago he has contributed some articles on curbed a few times. Can anybody confirm these percentages?
    https://twitter.com/petesaunders3/st...01594355060736

  5. #5

    Default

    The Census Bureau and several other sources provide access to the
    annual data for cities coming from the Census Bureau's annual American Community survey. The numbers shows about change in the white population are accurate.

    In Detroit, the white population of the city rose 37% from Census 2010 to the estimate for 2018 while the African American population declined by 12%. Nevertheless, the post bankruptcy efforts to improve the quality of life in Detroit may be reducing the out migration of African Americans to the suburbs. According to the Census Bureau's estimates, the city lost an annual average of 12,600 African American from 2010 to 2014. From 2014 to 2018, the average annual loss was 4,400. These
    data come from a survey so the margins of error are moderate.

    Data are available to calculate measures of racial residential segregation for the city and they show a modest decline in white-African Americn
    segregation since 2010. A quick examination of HMDA - and not a
    thorough analysis - suggests that white applicants are seeking home mortgages in census tracts with majority African American population. And in the suburbs, African-Americans appears to be seeking mortgages
    in many census tracts with largely white population. However, further
    analysis is needed with those HMDA data to confirm this.
    in many

  6. #6

    Default

    The reversal is well underway.

  7. #7

    Default

    The 2020 Detroit census will be just as bleak and shocking as was the 2010 census. A thin narrow band of light development within the old Cass Corridor will not be sufficient for the massive population losses in the neighborhoods. I'd say Detroit will come in at 550,000 for 2020.

  8. #8

    Default

    ^ I sense a pattern with your excessively negative posts here even if it's totally divorced from reality like that UAW thread you started.

    Point on the doll where Detroit hurt you.

  9. #9

    Default

    In all fairness, the same thing has happened in the past with the Census estimates, as far as them being way too optimistic with Detroit's population trends. If I'm not mistaken, they thought the city still had over 900,000 people in their 2009 estimate.

    I will also add to Colombian Dan's point that the city outside of Midtown/Downtown feels a lot more emptier than it did back in 2010.
    Last edited by 313WX; September-30-19 at 11:11 AM.

  10. #10

    Default

    ^ I can't find 2009 numbers you mind pulling those up?

    That was during the worst point of the great recession after the state's lost decade and well into the foreclosure crisis. The opposite situation is true today with a booming economy and the most investment in the city we've seen in 40-50 or so years. I have no reason to believe the numbers would be so dramatically off. How much time have you spent in the actual neighborhoods lately? I see renovations almost everywhere including new construction. traditional mortgages are fully recovered from what they were, neighborhood break downs show most areas growing or stable. To say that there's only been light development around cass corridor is just absurd and false.

  11. #11

    Default

    The population estimates can be quite far off. The estimates of population demographics should be reasonably close.

    Don't think it is likely the city's population is below 600K though.

  12. #12

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Metro25 View Post
    ^ I can't find 2009 numbers you mind pulling those up?
    Here you go.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mli...outputType=amp

    A ton of peoole also fled the city in the run up to the city's bankruptcy that weren't accounted for in the 2010 census

  13. #13

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by mwilbert View Post
    The population estimates can be quite far off. The estimates of population demographics should be reasonably close.

    Don't think it is likely the city's population is below 600K though.
    Agreed on the second part. If the demographic numbers are correct, we can expect Detroit's 2020 population to clock in around 640K - 650K. A decline of 60K is very close to the estimated population decline of Wayne County since 2010. The county's population declines tend to closely mirror Detroit's.

  14. #14

    Default

    To 313: we have no way of knowing how many people and no reasoning that estimates wouldn't have accounted for it. A ton of people have also came to the city during and post 2013. I guess we'll wait and see but so far his predictions have no real backing. Just a hunch or a feeling and pointing to an inaccurate census estimate over ten years old now.

  15. #15

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Metro25 View Post
    To 313: we have no way of knowing how many people and no reasoning that estimates wouldn't have accounted for it. A ton of people have also came to the city during and post 2013. I guess we'll wait and see but so far his predictions have no real backing. Just a hunch or a feeling and pointing to an inaccurate census estimate over ten years old now.
    Agreed about just waiting and seeing.

    That being said, expectations need to also be kept in check in the opposite direction as well. Using words such as "booming" or implying the city is growing on just a hunch when you look at Detroit's condition as a whole is also not reasonable.

  16. #16

    Default

    I wonder how many "new" Detroiters still use a address outside of Detroit and won't be counted?

  17. #17

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Detroitdave View Post
    I wonder how many "new" Detroiters still use a address outside of Detroit and won't be counted?
    Good point. Once auto insurance and income tax shake down reform, maybe then the numbers will be more reflective of reality

  18. #18

    Default

    This seems to be a pattern in most major/Big American cities across the nation.
    I'm curious and wonder, if this pattern continues ,what will big cities look like?.
    If what's happening in downtown and midtown moves to the rest of the city, which is starting to happen,Detroit will be a very different city.
    Is a blue collar town ready for Yoga Studios and $5.00 coffee shops? Seems to be working in certain parts of the city, but is the rest of the city ready?
    I guess we will see soon enough.

    QUOTE=renf;580538]The Census Bureau and several other sources provide access to the
    annual data for cities coming from the Census Bureau's annual American Community survey. The numbers shows about change in the white population are accurate.

    In Detroit, the white population of the city rose 37% from Census 2010 to the estimate for 2018 while the African American population declined by 12%. Nevertheless, the post bankruptcy efforts to improve the quality of life in Detroit may be reducing the out migration of African Americans to the suburbs. According to the Census Bureau's estimates, the city lost an annual average of 12,600 African American from 2010 to 2014. From 2014 to 2018, the average annual loss was 4,400. These
    data come from a survey so the margins of error are moderate.

    Data are available to calculate measures of racial residential segregation for the city and they show a modest decline in white-African Americn
    segregation since 2010. A quick examination of HMDA - and not a
    thorough analysis - suggests that white applicants are seeking home mortgages in census tracts with majority African American population. And in the suburbs, African-Americans appears to be seeking mortgages
    in many census tracts with largely white population. However, further
    analysis is needed with those HMDA data to confirm this.
    in many[/QUOTE]
    Last edited by Detroitdave; October-01-19 at 04:31 AM.

  19. #19

    Default

    Between 1970 and 1980 we lost 310,600
    Between 1980 and 1990 we lost 175,000
    Between 1990 and 2000 we lost 77,000
    Between 2000 and 2010 we lost 238,000

    I'm with most here in believing that the second half of this decade was very good in Detroit,.. and so instead of the average loss of 200,000 residents,.. I think we're only going to loose about 130,000 this time around.

    So I'll go on the record with my guess,... that the 2020 census will come back at about 585,000 or so.

  20. #20

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by 313WX View Post
    In all fairness, the same thing has happened in the past with the Census estimates, as far as them being way too optimistic with Detroit's population trends. If I'm not mistaken, they thought the city still had over 900,000 people in their 2009 estimate.

    I will also add to Colombian Dan's point that the city outside of Midtown/Downtown feels a lot more emptier than it did back in 2010.
    Does it perhaps feel a lot more emptier as you say because half of the abandoned and burnt out structures artificially filling the aesthetic of the neighborhoods are gone? As someone who is regularly in those places, methinks so.

  21. #21

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by bartocktoo View Post
    Does it perhaps feel a lot more emptier as you say because half of the abandoned and burnt out structures artificially filling the aesthetic of the neighborhoods are gone?
    That's probably a part of it.

    Another part might be that unemployment is way down,... so there are less people just standing around on the corner all day.

  22. #22

    Default

    Detroit 2020

    74.4% BLACK
    16.0% WHITE
    8% HISPANIC
    1% OTHER
    1.4% ASIAN

    Detroit 2030

    61.8% BLACK
    25.1% WHITE
    9.9% HISPANIC
    1% OTHER
    1.9% ASIAN

    Detroit 2040

    51.2% BLACK
    33.6% WHITE
    11.5% HISPANIC
    3.8% ASIAN
    2% OTHER

    Detroit 2050

    43.9% BLACK
    45.8% WHITE
    8.7% HISPANIC
    1.7% OTHER
    3.3% ASIAN


    So what's next!!!
    Last edited by Danny; October-01-19 at 02:13 PM.

  23. #23
    Join Date
    Apr 2018
    Posts
    54

    Default

    500,000 would surprise (barring insurance and residency) --- Portland and Seattle have much more as is told by the Census

  24. #24

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by SammyS View Post
    Good point. Once auto insurance and income tax shake down reform, maybe then the numbers will be more reflective of reality
    What are the odds that either of these things happen though?

    Both parties seem to be unwilling to do what needs to be done on auto insurance. They had an opportunity to make needed changes, like making the whole state one geographic risk pool or stopping hospitals from charging car crash victims exponentially more for service than other patients. These changes of course would require the courage to stand up to big money in healthcare and insurance. Republicans actively protect these groups and Democrats lack the spine or votes to do anything.

    Reform of income tax at the city level though is certainly doable. Eliminate the difference between the rates for working and working/living in the city to incentivize those who already work in Detroit to move in as well.

    I agree that these are the two big barriers to population recovery right now and fixing them will almost certainly turn around the population trend overnight.

  25. #25

    Default

    People who work in the city but dont live there should be taxed, people who do work and live in the city shouldn't. I dont understand why it's the other way around.

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