How long will they stay?

[casscorridor65]

I moved to Casscorridor, err, Midtown in the early '90's and I'm blown away everytime I peruse Trulia and this neighborhood. I’m wondering how long the current group of people that are paying big money to live here will last.

Maybe it's just that I've been here so long and am simply use to it, but I don't see this neighborhood offering up $300k, $400k, or $500k worth of amenities. I moved here from Southwest Detroit and sure, for $235 a month it was fine. The neighborhood offers us all the same no matter what we pay for our living expenses. But what these people are paying to live here blows my mind!

I was at Cass Café having dinner the other night talking to some other long time locals. We all guessed that in about 5 years there will start being an exodus of these newbies and a reduction in property values. Of course this is a guess but we all are still baffled by what some people are paying to live in our neighborhood. The sirens are all night every night, there is still petty crime, lots of street people, uber-high taxes, high auto insurance, city income tax, etc. Crap we've been living with forever, stuff you expect from a low rent neighborhood. I still love living here and will probably be here till I die, but I live here VERY inexpensive compared to what people are paying to move here. At some point, I have to imagine these people tiring of Midtown and the costs associated with it. Maybe one economic downturn or when their property tax discount ends they’ll move on.

I guess my questions are, What is so great about my neighborhood that people are paying $300k for a 900 SQ. foot 1 bedroom with street parking, and the bigger question, can this neighborhood survive long-term at these prices?

[Hamtragedy]

Are there not some tax credits about to expire? I think once the real property tax bill gets sent it will send some of the earlier "pioneers" fleeing, especially since some of those properties were purchased at [[seems like eons ago) 200-300K range.

[313WX]

I too remember when it was still cool to say "Cass Corridor."

[SammyS]

Prices only seem rediculous because of where they have recently appreciated from. What was the appreciation from 10 to 5 years ago? About the same % wise as the last 5 years? Was it rediculous 5 years ago?

[casscorridor65]

Prices only seem rediculous because of where they have recently appreciated from. What was the appreciation from 10 to 5 years ago? About the same % wise as the last 5 years? Was it rediculous 5 years ago?

To kind of answer that...which you can make your own conclusions: In 1993 I paid $235 for rent. In 2010, in that same apartment, rent was $415.00. [[Moved and finally bought a place in 2010). My understanding is that those studio apartments are now going for $900.

[401don]

Areas gentrify not just because of the cool factor of young people wanting to live downtown, but normally because a growing population and economy pushes people out to these neighborhoods from the core. Detroit's growing downtown and midtown pop. is overdependent on the former, on Quicken and on suburban companies moving downtown. It will be crucial for a few of the other grassroots companies downtown to experience rapid growth to justify continued migration of young people as others leave and start families.

[DeLemur]

Its a good question. I think prices will decrease about 15-20% in the next 4 years and get back to an place that reflects the amenities of the city. There is a hype now that is peaking and people will wake up and see Detroit is an interesting, dynamic city but it isn't cutting edge yet, it isn't the booming West or Texas, its still a midwestern city slowly reinventing itself, albeit with some serious opportunity to do interesting things [[reinvigorate our waterways!)
I often drive down Vernor highway and the condition of the roads are abysmal, literally jarring my car every day. We still have 6 auto thefts a month in my neighborhood and I still have to worry about walking at night. Point being, real estate prices are living in the future not the present and needs to correct a bit.

[Scottathew]

There is a hype now that is peaking and people will wake up and see Detroit is an interesting, dynamic city but it isn't cutting edge yet, it isn't the booming West or Texas, its still a midwestern city slowly reinventing itself, albeit with some serious opportunity to do interesting things [[reinvigorate our waterways!)

It's nice to see some realistic, middle of the road opinions.

[bragaboutme]

I've lived in the new center area and downtown. Back then we had one of those newly built lofts and were paying a nice amount. The expenses were low though cause we were close to work and made a nice amount of money. So let's say if rent was 1200 that could easily be split by two people or more. You have to understand these people that pay that amount don't have a miserable life and don't know or care about it from your perspective. These people love to live close to where they work that's plain and simple and there are plenty of high paying jobs.

[poobert]

I also lived there when it was cheap. The apartment I was renting is now going renting for $1,000 more per month than when I was living there, years ago...

I imagine many of those people living there will indeed move on. People are more mobile, but once they start having kids they may opt for the suburbs or a more suburban Detroit neighborhood, even. I think it is important to understand that there is not a finite supply of people. As these people move on, a new generation will be graduating from college, high school, being born, etc.

Also American [[and Western) tastes have changed dramatically in the past one to two decades. While there is still plenty of demand for suburbia - the newest, shiniest kind, anyway - American cities are now tranformed from what they were in the 1980's and 1990's. They are no longer viewed as only for the freaks, geeks, and poors. The trend toward urban living has been dramatic, for at least a not-so-insignificant portion of the population. Could that change in the coming years and decades? Of course, but by-and-large the younger generation, even if not having the desire, does not have the revulsion and fear of cities that the boomers did [[dear God boomers what the fuck).

I'm sure people were having the same conversation about Brooklyn 15 - 20 years ago. Have prices dropped and have the neighborhoods reverted to their hardscrabble, bluecollar roots? What about Hells Kitchen? Lower east side?

If I had to hedge my bets, I don't think the neighborhood is going to be passe anytime soon. It is scrappy, yes, but people want to live there. Especially in ultra-suburban SE Michigan, it offers a way of life not offered in many other locales here.

Also, for yourself - you chose to live there, too, as I once did. I realize you noted it was affordable, but you or I could have picked up and apartment in Warren, Redford, or Lincoln Park for the same or cheaper, I'm sure. For whatever reason, we liked the area, n'est-pas? And I may be gone to greener pastures but someone with far more money than me is now living in my old apartment!

[LongGone06]

...by-and-large the younger generation, even if not having the desire, does not have the revulsion and fear of cities that the boomers did...

To be fair, the move to the suburbs wasn't entirely motivated by fear. After WWII, there was a housing shortage for returning service members. Home building advances, mortgage insurance programs and government subsidies made large scale home building in the suburbs quick and affordable. Some people chose to buy these homes in the suburbs, rather than live in apartments in the cities. Some people followed employment; notably in Detroit, where the auto companies shifted production to newer suburban plants and closed older facilities in the city. Some people simply wanted larger yards in quiet suburbs, which were all the more accessible after the interstate freeway system began construction in the 1950's. And yes, many people moved out of fear of crime and/or declining quality of life and property values in the 1960's and later. In short, the suburban migration began after WWII and accelerated in the 1960's.

Also, some people are attracted to a lifestyle different than what they previously experienced. For boomers, the suburbs were an attractive alternative to the cities where they were raised. For younger generations who grew up there, the suburbs are bland and boring. Their interest in and return to the cities is a good thing, in my opinion.

[aj3647]

I'm sure people were having the same conversation about Brooklyn 15 - 20 years ago. Have prices dropped and have the neighborhoods reverted to their hardscrabble, bluecollar roots? What about Hells Kitchen? Lower east side?

Did you just honestly compare the Cass Corridor to Brooklyn of all places???

I agree with your premise but to compare Detroit to NYC in any capacity is just utterly insane.

[iheartthed]

Did you just honestly compare the Cass Corridor to Brooklyn of all places???

I agree with your premise but to compare Detroit to NYC in any capacity is just utterly insane.

I don't think the point is insane. There was a healthy dose of skepticism about gentrifying areas in Brooklyn. People thought of Williamsburg and Bedford Stuyvesant the same way that people think of the Cass Corridor.

[Bham1982]

I don't think the point is insane. There was a healthy dose of skepticism about gentrifying areas in Brooklyn. People thought of Williamsburg and Bedford Stuyvesant the same way that people think of the Cass Corridor.

Not really, though. Brooklyn always had excellent urban bones.

Thirty years ago Bed Stuy had high crime and decline, but was intact. Williamsburg was never really "bad", just previously not gentrified.

Detroit is different in that it was never a top-tier urban environment, even at its population peak, and the subsequent demolition has been epic. Midtown, even today, is still very sparse by typical urban standards.

Of course that doesn't mean that Detroit can't improve, but the improvement wouldn't take an analagous path. The appeal is different.

[iheartthed]

Not really, though. Brooklyn always had excellent urban bones.

Thirty years ago Bed Stuy had high crime and decline, but was intact. Williamsburg was never really "bad", just previously not gentrified.

Detroit is different in that it was never a top-tier urban environment, even at its population peak, and the subsequent demolition has been epic. Midtown, even today, is still very sparse by typical urban standards.

Of course that doesn't mean that Detroit can't improve, but the improvement wouldn't take an analagous path. The appeal is different.

The parts of Detroit we're talking about have relatively great urban qualities. If we put America on a scale of urbanity, these areas would fall in the 95th percentile.

I can name many places in Brooklyn that have gentrified that I think are less attractive than many areas of Detroit that haven't.

[LongGone06]

Did you just honestly compare the Cass Corridor to Brooklyn of all places???

I agree with your premise but to compare Detroit to NYC in any capacity is just utterly insane.

The New York Times began making the comparison after The Galapagos Art Space moved from Brooklyn to Detroit in 2014. I was in Brooklyn a couple of months ago and it certainly is dense and vibrant; but, the comparison is more about the perception of the cities, not necessarily the cities themselves.

[313WX]

Did you just honestly compare the Cass Corridor to Brooklyn of all places???

I agree with your premise but to compare Detroit to NYC in any capacity is just utterly insane.

That is one point we agree on.

[Meddle]

I agree with your premise but to compare Detroit to NYC in any capacity is just utterly insane.

Comparing one cesspool to another seems appropriate.

[mwilbert]

I think the key point was made earlier by k-slice. Greater downtown is the only significant area of urbanity in the area. The total population of greater Downtown is still significantly less than 100K. It's around 2% of the population of the metro. More than 2% of the people want to live in that kind of environment, whether or not they want to live completely without a car.

In the past, the various disadvantages of living downtown discouraged a lot of people, despite the relatively low price, but now as crime as fallen and amenities have increased, more people are interested, and consequently there's more demand and higher prices.

Certainly it's reasonable to think that prices might consolidate or drop for a while given their recent rise and also the apparent softening of the auto economy, but there's no reason to think the overall phenomenon of higher downtown prices is temporary.

One fly in the ointment that I do see has also been mentioned, which is when the various tax abatements that have been granted expire, there's going to be some serious sticker shock. Detroit needs the money, but really needs a lower unabated property tax rate too.

[poobert]

Comparing one cesspool to another seems appropriate.

Charmed, I'm sure. If that is your feeling, I can only wonder why you would be spending time here.

[poobert]

Did you just honestly compare the Cass Corridor to Brooklyn of all places???

I agree with your premise but to compare Detroit to NYC in any capacity is just utterly insane.

The point I was making - that was clearly not taken as "insane" by others here - was that American urban areas previously seen as undesirable a couple decades ago have, instead of waning in popularity, have only grown more desirable. I am regretful that what I thought was an easily understandable point has to be spelled out so explicitly and literally.

I wasn't saying that Detroit and New York City are equivalent. I guess some here aren't much for nuance.

[K-slice]

As a transplant to Detroit who manages several properties in downtown and New Center, I don't see the trend of price increases ending any time soon. People my age or younger are my primary clientele and I'm under 30. Empty nesters also make up a significant chunk of the group driving up prices.

To cement the point that demand isn't going to die, I would say about half of the residents who move out provide me with a Detroit forwarding address. Many of them moving to midtown, West Village, or Corktown.

The trend towards living in a community where one doesn't need a car to get around daily is alive and will only continue to grow. "Greater downtown" Detroit is the largest area where this kind of lifestyle is possible in the metro area.

Prices will of course fluctuate with the market as a whole but in the next downturn I expect the traditional lower-cost/ starter home suburbs with 0 walk-ability [[Warren, Sterling Heights, Livonia, etc) will suffer more than areas like midtown or the walk-able suburbs.

[Bham1982]

The trend towards living in a community where one doesn't need a car to get around daily is alive and will only continue to grow.

The ironic thing is that Cass Corridor has probably never been more auto-oriented than right now. The transients living in the Corridor over the last 60 years obviously weren't living auto-oriented lifestyles. I bet they rarely had cars. In contrast, anyone buying a new condo in "Midtown" has a car, and uses it.

So, yes, the corridor has gotten much more livable, but it isn't due to people ditching auto-oriented lifestyles, but rather some people with auto-oriented lifestyles deciding the area is a decent option for living.

[dtowncitylover]

The ironic thing is that Cass Corridor has probably never been more auto-oriented than right now. The transients living in the Corridor over the last 60 years obviously weren't living auto-oriented lifestyles. I bet they rarely had cars. In contrast, anyone buying a new condo in "Midtown" has a car, and uses it.

So, yes, the corridor has gotten much more livable, but it isn't due to people ditching auto-oriented lifestyles, but rather some people with auto-oriented lifestyles deciding the area is a decent option for living.

Yes, and thank God for Midtown implementing a no-strip mall development rule. I would think midtown inhabitants need a car only because not every amenity is there yet. Not because they still want to have a car. The next step is make sure sure one doesn't need a car to live in and around midtown and downtown. More stores, no parking rights for developments, and better knowledge of DDOT options.

[poobert]

The ironic thing is that Cass Corridor has probably never been more auto-oriented than right now. The transients living in the Corridor over the last 60 years obviously weren't living auto-oriented lifestyles. I bet they rarely had cars. In contrast, anyone buying a new condo in "Midtown" has a car, and uses it.

So, yes, the corridor has gotten much more livable, but it isn't due to people ditching auto-oriented lifestyles, but rather some people with auto-oriented lifestyles deciding the area is a decent option for living.

I'll submit the first paragraph is an interesting observation and likely true.

The second though, is a bit problematic. Yes, virtually all newer non-transient residents of midtown likely own cars and use them regularly. However, their election of that location would almost certainly indicate a preference for a less auto-reliant lifestyle. It isn't a zero sum game, after all.

I can tell you when I lived there - as a non-affluent but also non-transient person - the car moved once a week. Good luck doing that at 24 Mile Road and Hayes. Your ass is driving to the fucking mailbox. Among a significant portion of the population, that isn't awesome anymore.