GM Poletown and Warren Transmission shuttering

[mikefmich]

Why do I feel like someone just pissed & shit on all our shoes?

[Cincinnati_Kid]

Why do I feel like someone just pissed & shit on all our shoes?

Because they did. Mary Barra says that the public has stopped buying cars, and are focused on Trucks and SUV's. All the plants they are considering closing produce cars, and the transmission plants in Maryland and Warren won't be needed anymore if they build autonomous cars, which don't need them. But what happens if gas spikes? Do they build cars again?

[401don]

Because they did. Mary Barra says that the public has stopped buying cars, and are focused on Trucks and SUV's. All the plants they are considering closing produce cars, and the transmission plants in Maryland and Warren won't be needed anymore if they build autonomous cars, which don't need them. But what happens if gas spikes? Do they build cars again?

I think dear Mary should have said they don't buy North American cars anymore.
May 2018 - Civic 34,349
Camry 29,965
Corolla 29,578
Accord 28,212
All 4 in the top 10 in monthly vehicle sales.
Yes, trucks/suv's are increasing their market share but sedans still sell and the Japanese continue to eat Detroit's lunch.

[bust]

I think dear Mary should have said they don't buy North American cars anymore....
Yes, trucks/suv's are increasing their market share but sedans still sell and the Japanese continue to eat Detroit's lunch.

Exactly.
Detroit may be the land of trucks and SUVs but it's foolish to imagine the world in your own image.
Go anywhere else in the world and almost everyone drives small cars.
Go almost everywhere else in the US except rural and ranch areas and you'll see fewer oversized vehicles there too.
Sure, they’re making better profits selling trucks and SUVs, but the world still drives cars.
American automakers need to figure out how to make a profit selling cars again.
The industry is cyclical enough already, subject to the whims of oil prices and the economy.
Now they plan to go all in on gas guzzlers with nary a hedge on the bet?
That sounds like a risky up and down future full of heartache.
Oil is a limited resource, much of it exists in parts of the world run by governments we can't trust as trading partners, and extracting and consuming it is devastating our environment which is already wobbling off-kilter.
Wall street has only a short-term outlook.
Who really expects the economy to remain strong and fuel prices to remain low?
What is GM's long-term plan?

[Atticus]

The realization is that people in urban areas are shifting away from owning vehicles period [[of any make and model). Ride sharing, public transit, scooters, bikes, other methods of transit, etc. are all making the urban vehicle ownership model less and less popular.

In rural and suburban areas, the traditional model of own your vehicle, park in a garage, etc. still works. The sprawl creates distances that make the transit methods described above less practical. And when you look at what people in rural and suburban neighborhoods want, you see big vehicles.

In essence, the automakers are doubling down on what the population of future buyers will want. Whether that want shifts because of gas prices remains to be seen...but either way.... the urban neighborhoods are checking out of the vehicle ownership model altogether.

[bust]

The realization is that people in urban areas are shifting away from owning vehicles period [[of any make and model). Ride sharing, public transit, scooters, bikes, other methods of transit, etc. are all making the urban vehicle ownership model less and less popular.

In rural and suburban areas, the traditional model of own your vehicle, park in a garage, etc. still works. The sprawl creates distances that make the transit methods described above less practical. And when you look at what people in rural and suburban neighborhoods want, you see big vehicles.

In essence, the automakers are doubling down on what the population of future buyers will want. Whether that want shifts because of gas prices remains to be seen...but either way.... the urban neighborhoods are checking out of the vehicle ownership model altogether.

I may as well be exhibit A for the urban demographic you describe. I bought my first car as soon as I got a learner's permit, but I haven't owned one outside of the Detroit area, opting instead for walkable urban neighborhoods and the modes you describe.

But there are a few things I think you left out of your analysis...

1) Even if cities will be characterized by more ride sharing, autonomous vehicles, and transit, cities will still be full of vehicles. If they are not personally owned, does it make sense for them to be designed to be utilitarian, to serve the primary practical purpose of mobility -- to transport people from here to there, or to be status vehicles for the land yacht set?

2) The trend has been for people to migrate from rural and suburban areas to cities and closer in, and it hasn't been limited to the US, it has been worldwide. In fact it has been much stronger in many countries than it has been in the US.

3) Don't discount how important gas prices are to large vehicle sales. The US is a major oil producer with relatively low prices and it has a big impact here. Most places don't produce oil, and there are few where it can be purchased as cheaply. It is a much more important factor there.

If GM is latching its future to big vehicle sales it's writing off most of the global market to focus on the wealthiest, and for good times. That's the Land Rover strategy, I guess. Maybe that's not really their plan. I hope they continue to develop their electric vehicles too. But if it is, doesn't that seem risky to you?

PS. I am planning to buy a 4-wheeled vehicle again soon. My first one in a very long time. It will be a car.

[401don]

In rural and suburban areas, the traditional model of own your vehicle, park in a garage, etc. still works. The sprawl creates distances that make the transit methods described above less practical. And when you look at what people in rural and suburban neighborhoods want, you see big vehicles.

True but here in suburban Toronto where I live almost every household has both spouses working and almost every driveway has 2 vehicles - an suv and a compact sedan [[usually a Civic, Corolla, Elantra, Cruise or Focus). For GM and Ford to totally abandon this segment is very risky.

[aj3647]

In essence, the automakers are doubling down on what the population of future buyers will want. Whether that want shifts because of gas prices remains to be seen...but either way.... the urban neighborhoods are checking out of the vehicle ownership model altogether.

Shorter term, in the next 20 years, yes. But the real trend is going to be the transition away from private vehicle ownership towards the use of a shared fleet of autonomous electric vehicles. And that's a race that Toyota will be likely to win. I think Uber is always planning to transition to autonomous electric vehicles by 2030 and Uber is already teamed up with Toyota. And just Uber alone will be looking to purchase millions of these vehicles as they look to dominate the market and make urban car ownership completely obsolete.

I can easily envision both GM and Chrysler being completely out of business by mid-century.

[401don]

Shorter term, in the next 20 years, yes. But the real trend is going to be the transition away from private vehicle ownership towards the use of a shared fleet of autonomous electric vehicles. And that's a race that Toyota will be likely to win. I think Uber is always planning to transition to autonomous electric vehicles by 2030 and Uber is already teamed up with Toyota. And just Uber alone will be looking to purchase millions of these vehicles as they look to dominate the market and make urban car ownership completely obsolete.

I can easily envision both GM and Chrysler being completely out of business by mid-century.

Not sure why Uber should dominate the market any more than a single rental car company does. There will be lots of service/tech/software companies partnering with auto companies. I see ride sharing taking away maybe 25-35% of the vehicle market in the first few decades but that will be more than enough to reduce the number of automakers by a third to half.

[pjbear05]

I think dear Mary should have said they don't buy North American cars anymore.
May 2018 - Civic 34,349
Camry 29,965
Corolla 29,578
Accord 28,212
All 4 in the top 10 in monthly vehicle sales.
Yes, trucks/suv's are increasing their market share but sedans still sell and the Japanese continue to eat Detroit's lunch.

Sorry ass midget mobiles, all of them, worthless if you're 6' 4", 34" inseam, and have no leg room in these crap boxes.

[Bham1982]

Sorry ass midget mobiles, all of them, worthless if you're 6' 4", 34" inseam, and have no leg room in these crap boxes.

Only about 3.9% of U.S. men are 6'2"" or taller, so irrelevant. At 6'4" you're talking a tiny proportion of U.S. adults [[<1%)

And you do realize that countries with much taller adults [[say Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden and Germany) drive much smaller cars, right?

Metro Detroit favors gigantic cars, usually much crappier than the smaller cars favored in other first world countries or in coastal metros. And newsflash: a Corolla or Accord might be boxy/boring, but they're very reliable, and a car is, above all, a tool, where reliability counts more than anything else.

They also aren't small cars; they're just considered small in the U.S. where anything smaller than an F-150 or Tahoe is considered small these days. In most of the world, they consider Escapes or CRVs to be really big cars.

[poobert]

Metro Detroit favors gigantic cars, usually much crappier than the smaller cars favored in other first world countries or in coastal metros. And newsflash: a Corolla or Accord might be boxy/boring, but they're very reliable, and a car is, above all, a tool, where reliability counts more than anything else.

There is something to this. I'm getting fed up with American cars because every one I've owned - i.e. every car I've owned - seems to need monthly visits to the repair shop. Eventually I give up and the check engine light just remains on until total implosion.

Somehow the domestic automakers still get decent rankings [[sometimes) and even win awards for reliability but all my friends with foreign cars don't seem to share the same hassles. There must be something to it, though. Leave Michigan and 9 out of 10 cars are foreign brands.

[Zacha341]

I've purchased Toyota for decades [[USED not new) finding them at the ten year plus level very durable if not very versatile in style. However, I don't romanticize foreign cars -- avoiding European cars as they can become real tinker-mobiles and ultra expensive to repair.

I was recently considering a GM sedan [[Chevy Malibu) and it was just so cheap and rattly I had to go another direction. If I were purchasing new I'd consider a Buick but not enough people are. And the ticking engine noises I hear out of too many newer Chrysler/ Dodge models tells me something is lacking at the engineering level.

Anyway many mechanics know which cars are the strong runners, which have weak suspension systems, bad trannies, and bad components in general. I find out the model of car to purchase by talking to them.

Leave Michigan and 9 out of 10 cars are foreign brands.

[bust]

Only about 3.9% of U.S. men are 6'2"" or taller, so irrelevant. At 6'4" you're talking a tiny proportion of U.S. adults [[<1%)

And you do realize that countries with much taller adults [[say Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden and Germany) drive much smaller cars, right?

Metro Detroit favors gigantic cars, usually much crappier than the smaller cars favored in other first world countries or in coastal metros. And newsflash: a Corolla or Accord might be boxy/boring, but they're very reliable, and a car is, above all, a tool, where reliability counts more than anything else.

They also aren't small cars; they're just considered small in the U.S. where anything smaller than an F-150 or Tahoe is considered small these days. In most of the world, they consider Escapes or CRVs to be really big cars.

And people in most other parts of the world are shorter, on average, than Americans. Heck, most people in the US are shorter, on average, than Detroiters. I'm average height in Detroit and taller than average on the east coast.

Another thing: I don't know what the official statistics are, but it is possible to more conveniently carry cargo in a Corolla than a Ford Ecosport or a Jeep Renegade. The back of an Ecosport can't fit more than a large suitcase and a small carry on bag without losing the back seat. Two large suitcases fit in the trunk of a Corolla without folding the back seat. And even with one side of the rear seat folded down there is still room in back for a car seat and a small adult squeezed in the middle.

The designers of the Ecosport and the Renegade really should have been able to do better than a Corolla.

Meanwhile I have to tilt my head to the side so it doesn't bounce against the roof if I'm in the back seat of a Cadillac, but not in a Corolla.

Design matters, and I'm especially talking about design for utility, not for looks. Yeah, they're boring, but Corollas have utility down pat.

I'd like to buy an American car, but why is it so hard to find one that doesn't suffer from design issues? What would you recommend as the best Detroit-made [[whatever that means any more) alternative to a Corolla?

PS. There are large parts of the world where a Corolla is considered a big car.

[Honky Tonk]

Sorry ass midget mobiles, all of them, worthless if you're 6' 4", 34" inseam, and have no leg room in these crap boxes.

Bear, I own an American made "mid-size" [[though it's large to me) sedan, and it isn't any better. No stretch-out leg room. I have friends that own large mom-mobiles, [[Thanx Meddle) and large pick-em up trucks, same same. The vehicles are large on the outside but short on leg room and comfort.

[LongGone06]

I think dear Mary should have said they don't buy North American cars anymore.
May 2018 - Civic 34,349
Camry 29,965
Corolla 29,578
Accord 28,212
All 4 in the top 10 in monthly vehicle sales.
Yes, trucks/suv's are increasing their market share but sedans still sell and the Japanese continue to eat Detroit's lunch.

Not true, 401don.

"Sales of passenger cars took a major hit in July with Toyota, Honda and Nissan reporting steep declines for their sedan sales." WSJ Aug. 1.

"Sales cratered in September. Toyota Motor Corp.’s dropped 10 percent... amid the shift in demand to SUVs from sedans and other models..." Bloomberg, Oct. 2.

"Toyota is slowing down production of the Camry, the top-selling car in the U.S. for 16 years running, underscoring the ongoing slump besetting sedans." Automotive News, Nov. 16.

[313WX]

Not true, 401don.

"Sales of passenger cars took a major hit in July with Toyota, Honda and Nissan reporting steep declines for their sedan sales." WSJ Aug. 1.

"Sales cratered in September. Toyota Motor Corp.’s dropped 10 percent... amid the shift in demand to SUVs from sedans and other models..." Bloomberg, Oct. 2.

"Toyota is slowing down production of the Camry, the top-selling car in the U.S. for 16 years running, underscoring the ongoing slump besetting sedans." Automotive News, Nov. 16.

How does that disprove 401don's point?

[LongGone06]

"How does that disprove 401don's point?"

I interpreted 401don's comment to mean that people simply were not buying domestic sedans [[which seems to be supported by comment #58). The entire segment is, unfortunately, declining. Personally, I prefer driving a sedan and have little interest in a crossover.

[313WX]

"How does that disprove 401don's point?"

I interpreted 401don's comment to mean that people simply were not buying domestic sedans [[which seems to be supported by comment #58). The entire segment is, unfortunately, declining. Personally, I prefer driving a sedan and have little interest in a crossover.

But I think the point was foreign sedans are still outselling Domestic sedans by a sizable margin and the foreighn automakers are still able to make them at enough of a profit that they're not killing them off.