How far we’ve come...

[oladub]

Detroit's population decline keeps being brought up. One boring non-political reason for population decline is that Americans are having fewer children. According to the World Bank, the U.S. fertility rate has declined from 3.7 children per 15-44 year old women in 1960 to 1.76 in 2017. Given whatever number of houses remain in Detroit and whatever the percentage with fertile women, household size is smaller.

[ABetterDetroit]

How does anyone expect to grow a city Chock Full of empty land when the only way to build a 250k house, condominium or apartment brand new is with a devoloper connected enough in Lansing to get a 15 year NEZ property tax abatement? Nobody in America pays 9k or 11k a year in taxes on 250k worth of new construction.

The new construction Gap is a major unaddressed problem. Much worse now because obviously after City Modern selling out so fast there are plenty of people willing to overlook all the other problems to live in Detroit. The ‘nobody wants to live there anyway’ excuse rings pretty hollow these days.

https://treas-secure.state.mi.us/pte...TEstimator.asp

[Meddle]

Another thing I don't see mentioned. How many people want those big old houses so common in the second, third and even fourth rings? Those places would cost a small fortune to heat and cool these days, even if they had insulation added. By the time you spend the money to renovate effectively, you may as well build new.

That goes back to something I said in another thread about density. Take a few blocks of basically older homes that are beyond their useful lifespan, demolish the entire blocks and start over with smaller homes on bigger lots; less homes per bock.

[313WX]

Detroit's population decline keeps being brought up. One boring non-political reason for population decline is that Americans are having fewer children. According to the World Bank, the U.S. fertility rate has declined from 3.7 children per 15-44 year old women in 1960 to 1.76 in 2017. Given whatever number of houses remain in Detroit and whatever the percentage with fertile women, household size is smaller.

But that doesn't explain why other US cities continue to grow in population [[many by leaps and bounds).

[Burnsie]

Has the east waterfront or Belle Isle ever looked better than at present?

The DNR has made major progress, much more than the city would have. But it's getting pretty carried away to say that Belle Isle looks better than ever.

Items still to be fixed include:

Unused and deteriorating riding stables [[granted, the roof was fixed 6 years ago)

Substantial stretches of crumbling roads and sidewalks

Children's Zoo, an abandoned wreck

Band shell, abandoned & deteriorating

Grand Prix "paddock," an infernal blight

Abandoned golf course- reopen it, make it a natural area, or what?

[oladub]

But that doesn't explain why other US cities continue to grow in population [[many by leaps and bounds).

It doesn't, nor was it intended to. That is why I included the last sentence. Lower fertility rates, longer life spans, and broken families all probably contribute to a reduced average population per household. Some other reasons Detroit hasn't kept up with other cities' population growth have already been mentioned.

[iheartthed]

No doubt that population growth would be a good sign, but I believe there are more important things to measure. Things such as poverty, unemployment, crime and high school dropout rates are more important than population growth. It's better to improve life in Detroit than the number of people living in Detroit. The reason people left Detroit isn't because it wasn't a big enough city, it's been more about quality of life. If the population drops by 50k in 2020 and all of those other items improve, then i would say things are getting better.

I would still be concerned if the population has not either stopped declining, or slowed significantly. A declining population, even with positive economic indicators, would signal some still troubling socioeconomic issues, such as a worsening income inequality.

That is essentially the Chicago model: deflect attention away from the continuing population decline by focusing the conversation on more favorable stats like income. But most healthy cities have found a way to both grow and increase economic indicators.

I believe this is also what happened in Detroit during the 90s. There was an uptick in income indicators coupled with a lower rate of population decline. Then the bottom fell out again the following decade.

[ABetterDetroit]

I would still be concerned if the population has not either stopped declining, or slowed significantly. A declining population, even with positive economic indicators, would signal some still troubling socioeconomic issues, such as a worsening income inequality.

This is another area I fail to understand. By far my largest concern in Detroit on wages is a family of 3 or 4 trying to get by on thirty hours a week from a Burger King. I would like to see higher wages at the very bottom one way or the other. I don’t care how it is accomplished as long as it is. How exactly does getting angry about whatever the VPs in the rencen make help the bottom one bit? It seems nothing more than a waste of oxygen and intentionally bringing political dynamite into the room that doesn’t help the most in need and only succeeds to sidetracking the major problem.

[iheartthed]

This is another area I fail to understand. By far my largest concern in Detroit on wages is a family of 3 or 4 trying to get by on thirty hours a week from a Burger King. I would like to see higher wages at the very bottom one way or the other. I don’t care how it is accomplished as long as it is. How exactly does getting angry about whatever the VPs in the rencen make help the bottom one bit? It seems nothing more than a waste of oxygen and intentionally bringing political dynamite into the room that doesn’t help the most in need and only succeeds to sidetracking the major problem.

If Detroit is shrinking but income stats are going up, then the reason income stats are going up is because the poor people are leaving. And not that their lives are improving.

[Colombian Dan]

I'd be willing to bet Detroit's population in 2020 will be less than Milwaukee. Ford's purchase of the Train station from Matty may be a desperate last ditch effort to save the region from final obscurity. Henry Ford II in 1971 thought the building of the Renaissance Center would save Detroit.... throw in the People Mover a decade later.....and people have continued to flee the city regardless of what project was built. Detroit is no longer in the top 50 airports in the world for cargo or passenger service... something it always was a part of prior to 2013. There are no large scale residential neighborhoods being built.. besides a few downtown/Cass Corridor apartment/condos [[with massive tax abatements). Few to no immigrants moving into the city.. A few thousand Mexicans is a joke. Virtually no Asians.. Chaldeans moved out long ago. A few Bangladeshi/Indians/Arabs around the Hamtramck fringe area. Every single Detroit neighborhood, including the Cass Corridor, Southwest, and Corktown is majority black. Detroit's foreign born population is the lowest of large midwest cities. Foreign investment in Detroit is extremely low. I still do not see how Detroit can or will pull out of its terminal nose dive.

[48202]

If Detroit is shrinking but income stats are going up, then the reason income stats are going up is because the poor people are leaving. And not that their lives are improving.

And the old folks who continue to pass away. May or may not be poor, but are definitely not high income. Multiple generations of kids [[now adults) have already moved away, while their parents and grand parents have stuck around.

[archfan]

Another thing I don't see mentioned. How many people want those big old houses so common in the second, third and even fourth rings? Those places would cost a small fortune to heat and cool these days, even if they had insulation added. By the time you spend the money to renovate effectively, you may as well build new.

That goes back to something I said in another thread about density. Take a few blocks of basically older homes that are beyond their useful lifespan, demolish the entire blocks and start over with smaller homes on bigger lots; less homes per bock.

Those old four squares are solid - built like brick...houses should be built. You've seen the before and after renovations of houses that sat empty for a few years, and now they're great looking. They coudn't come back like that without being built well to begin with.

There is plenty of empty land to sell to a developer without destroying yet another neighborhood.

[iheartthed]

And the old folks who continue to pass away. May or may not be poor, but are definitely not high income. Multiple generations of kids [[now adults) have already moved away, while their parents and grand parents have stuck around.

Maybe... but not very likely. Just a quick spot check shows that Detroit's median age of 34 is similar to other major cities that are growing: NYC [[36), Boston [[31), Dallas [[32), Atlanta [[33), LA [[34), and SF [[36). So there aren't an abnormal amount of older people in Detroit. If Detroit is declining in population then it's likely not just because of old people dying.

[mwilbert]

I'd be willing to bet Detroit's population in 2020 will be less than Milwaukee. Ford's purchase of the Train station from Matty may be a desperate last ditch effort to save the region from final obscurity. Henry Ford II in 1971 thought the building of the Renaissance Center would save Detroit.... throw in the People Mover a decade later.....and people have continued to flee the city regardless of what project was built. Detroit is no longer in the top 50 airports in the world for cargo or passenger service... something it always was a part of prior to 2013. There are no large scale residential neighborhoods being built.. besides a few downtown/Cass Corridor apartment/condos [[with massive tax abatements). Few to no immigrants moving into the city.. A few thousand Mexicans is a joke. Virtually no Asians.. Chaldeans moved out long ago. A few Bangladeshi/Indians/Arabs around the Hamtramck fringe area. Every single Detroit neighborhood, including the Cass Corridor, Southwest, and Corktown is majority black. Detroit's foreign born population is the lowest of large midwest cities. Foreign investment in Detroit is extremely low. I still do not see how Detroit can or will pull out of its terminal nose dive.

It has already pulled out of its nose dive--there are literally no indicators that indicate a rapid decline of the city at this point. Possibly it is still descending, but if it is, it is doing it slowly. Let's be clear that I am not claiming it is cruising at 35000 feet, nor even that it may not eventually crash someplace, but it is weird to claim that it is in some kind of free fall. It just isn't.

[kathy2trips]

Those old four squares are solid - built like brick...houses should be built. You've seen the before and after renovations of houses that sat empty for a few years, and now they're great looking. They coudn't come back like that without being built well to begin with.

There is plenty of empty land to sell to a developer without destroying yet another neighborhood.

I agree with you archfan. There are smatterings of well-kept viable houses within large areas of dilapidated structures and empty lots. Why not reconfigure the remaining lots and build aesthetically sympathetic housing among the beauties that still exist?

Note how "historic neighborhoods" that are safe and with good schools are highly desired in other large cities. They can command big dollars.

[softailrider]

I agree with you archfan. There are smatterings of well-kept viable houses within large areas of dilapidated structures and empty lots. Why not reconfigure the remaining lots and build aesthetically sympathetic housing among the beauties that still exist?

Note how "historic neighborhoods" that are safe and with good schools are highly desired in other large cities. They can command big dollars.

Great idea about that sympathetic housing thing - but that sure isn’t what they’ve been doing for the last 25 years. The new single family dwellings that have been built are basically unattractive vinyl sided crap.

[swingline]

Detroit is no longer in the top 50 airports in the world for cargo or passenger service... something it always was a part of prior to 2013.

Detroit isn’t the only US city to fall out of the top 50 airports [[passenger boardings). The explosive growth of airplane travel in China, the Middle East and the EU has airports in those regions surpassing many US cities who have seen little or only modest growth in passenger traffic. Newark has seen strong passenger growth of 20% over the past dozen years or so but has actually fallen from the top 20 airports to somewhere in the mid 40s. After falling off a cliff during the recession, Detroit Metro traffic has seen modest but steady growth for almost a decade. This is a good economic indicator for our region.

[iheartthed]

Detroit isn’t the only US city to fall out of the top 50 airports [[passenger boardings). The explosive growth of airplane travel in China, the Middle East and the EU has airports in those regions surpassing many US cities who have seen little or only modest growth in passenger traffic. Newark has seen strong passenger growth of 20% over the past dozen years or so but has actually fallen from the top 20 airports to somewhere in the mid 40s. After falling off a cliff during the recession, Detroit Metro traffic has seen modest but steady growth for almost a decade. This is a good economic indicator for our region.

In addition to this, certain U.S. airlines have been boosting the numbers in smaller cities by using them as hubs. Denver and Charlotte both have much higher passenger numbers than Detroit, but most of those passengers never leave the airport. On the other hand, there are cities even larger than Detroit, like Philadelphia, that has lower passenger traffic.

[DetroitSoldier]

In addition to this, certain U.S. airlines have been boosting the numbers in smaller cities by using them as hubs. Denver and Charlotte both have much higher passenger numbers than Detroit, but most of those passengers never leave the airport. On the other hand, there are cities even larger than Detroit, like Philadelphia, that has lower passenger traffic.

This is true, but Denver [[and to a lesser extent Charlotte) is the largest city for a considerable geographical distance, whereas Philadelphia is in the middle of the incredibly crowded Northeast.

[Richard]

In addition to this, certain U.S. airlines have been boosting the numbers in smaller cities by using them as hubs. Denver and Charlotte both have much higher passenger numbers than Detroit, but most of those passengers never leave the airport. On the other hand, there are cities even larger than Detroit, like Philadelphia, that has lower passenger traffic.

Detroit is the hub for layover transfer to the Philippines,for the whole eastern half of the country,you need to capitalize on that and give people a reason to leave the airport or make it easy and organized,lots of people like to grab those last minute things for family,it does not add population but it does add dollars to the local economy which helps.

[K-slice]

When discussing this topic, I think the tendency for people to forget the near-past leads to a lot of the nay-saying.

Currently, those naysayers refrain is "yeah there is improvement, but not outside of Downtown, midtown, New Center, Corktown, and the Villages." Maybe they inlclude B.E and the North end too.

5 years ago they were saying "yeah there is improvement, but not outside of Downtown, midtown, and New Center."

10 years ago they were saying "yeah there is improvement, but not outside of Downtown."

People forget so quickly that the areas Detroiters and suburbaintes alike frequent so often now were not too long ago places no one went. In 2014 West village was a seldom spoken of neighborhood with little to offer new residents. Michigan Ave in Corktown circa 2008 was mostly boarded up storefronts. The only reason to be on Canfield was Traffic Jam. Seems that once an area has been "up and coming" for more than a year the memory of it being empty and devoid of investment for decades is totally forgotten.

[Richard]

10 years ago people were saying the city should be levaled to the ground and start over,but yet here you are.

Sometimes when something is there that we see every day,we tend not to notice the changes.

[iheartthed]

Detroit is the hub for layover transfer to the Philippines,for the whole eastern half of the country,you need to capitalize on that and give people a reason to leave the airport or make it easy and organized,lots of people like to grab those last minute things for family,it does not add population but it does add dollars to the local economy which helps.

I don't disagree at all. It's a huge missed opportunity that there is no easy public transit option to get to the city from the airport, considering that Detroit is Delta's gateway to Asia. Many people would go into Detroit for a few hours out of curiosity.

[Meddle]

I don't disagree at all. It's a huge missed opportunity that there is no easy public transit option to get to the city from the airport, considering that Detroit is Delta's gateway to Asia. Many people would go into Detroit for a few hours out of curiosity.

That could be made much easier if those layover flights went to St Clair County or Selfridge.

Romulus is the armpit of nowhere as far as downtown goes. Excursions to Ann Arbor would make more sense.

[iheartthed]

That could be made much easier if those layover flights went to St Clair County or Selfridge.

Romulus is the armpit of nowhere as far as downtown goes. Excursions to Ann Arbor would make more sense.

There is nothing wrong with Romulus other than it is nearly impossible to get to Detroit from there without a car.