From Automakers To Mobility Providers - Let's Discuss The Future Today

[Tig3rzhark]

Some people just don't get it. The world isn't ready for autonomous vehicles, especially areas that get a lot of bad weather, like ours.

The vehicles haven't been tested in a Michigan weather, most of these vehicles are only tested in normal weather. They still have to deal with human-driven vehicles and that makes it dangerous because human-driven vehicles are so unpredictable. You never know whether the person behind the wheel is in their right mind or not.

To apply it to public transit would be a problem too. Not just for that reason, should it malfunction and cause an accident, who's going to take responsibility, the "owner" or the "manufacturer"?

[Lowell]

Sure, things like weather present challenges wand testing in Michigan at the Willow Run site and elsewhere is ongoing.

The transition to driverless will be a process of small seductions. Many of them are already here.

• Self-parallel-parking
• Auto-braking for sudden objects, not must ABS
• Back-up object sensing [love that one]
• Auto piloting
• Blind spot detection

These are already building popular acceptance with more to come. This will not be an all the sudden event.

I put to people like this: what if you lost your ability to drive, would you be open to getting a car than could drive you around?

The elderly, a big growing demographic and the disabled will provide the market for fully autonomous vehicles.

[Tig3rzhark]

Sure, things like weather present challenges wand testing in Michigan at the Willow Run site and elsewhere is ongoing.

The transition to driverless will be a process of small seductions. Many of them are already here.

• Self-parallel-parking
• Auto-braking for sudden objects, not must ABS
• Back-up object sensing [love that one]
• Auto piloting
• Blind spot detection

These are already building popular acceptance with more to come. This will not be an all the sudden event.

I put to people like this: what if you lost your ability to drive, would you be open to getting a car than could drive you around?

The elderly, a big growing demographic and the disabled will provide the market for fully autonomous vehicles.

By the way, let's not forget that these things don't have a manual override system.

[401don]

To me the most dangerous time would be the period when vehicles are almost 100% self-driving but with the ability to manually take over. People are already lazy and distracted. How much would drivers pay attention if they were only needed for an unforeseen or emergency situation?

[SammyS]

Some people just don't get it. The world isn't ready for autonomous vehicles, especially areas that get a lot of bad weather, like ours.

The vehicles haven't been tested in a Michigan weather, most of these vehicles are only tested in normal weather. They still have to deal with human-driven vehicles and that makes it dangerous because human-driven vehicles are so unpredictable. You never know whether the person behind the wheel is in their right mind or not.

To apply it to public transit would be a problem too. Not just for that reason, should it malfunction and cause an accident, who's going to take responsibility, the "owner" or the "manufacturer"?

Oh, it’s coming. I not only agree with this guy but have already made many of these points

https://medium.com/hult-business-sch...e-58d23d1f338d

[Richard]

Oh, it’s coming. I not only agree with this guy but have already made many of these points

https://medium.com/hult-business-sch...e-58d23d1f338d

You would have to implement something like that in over a 50 year time period.Imagine what would happen in this country when you dump 50 million jobs without giving a source of income.

The strife would kick this country back 100 years.

Interesting point in the comments though,want to carjack somebody? Jump out in front of the car and watch the auto braking system kick in leaving the passengers sitting ducks.

When it gets to that point all we are is pieces of cargo to be moved around,but where would we go with no jobs,no money to visit malls or anything for that matter,I guess the plus would be is our monthly rations of solient green will be delivered by drones or driverless cars.

[SammyS]

You would have to implement something like that in over a 50 year time period.Imagine what would happen in this country when you dump 50 million jobs without giving a source of income.

The strife would kick this country back 100 years.

Interesting point in the comments though,want to carjack somebody? Jump out in front of the car and watch the auto braking system kick in leaving the passengers sitting ducks.

When it gets to that point all we are is pieces of cargo to be moved around,but where would we go with no jobs,no money to visit malls or anything for that matter,I guess the plus would be is our monthly rations of solient green will be delivered by drones or driverless cars.

Right on although I think it would be a lot quicker than that. The unemployment problem may be something we’ve never seen before.

https://youtu.be/7Pq-S557XQU

Maybe we’ll just regress back to feudalism entertaining moguls in fiefdoms

[bust]

Here's an interesting take on autonomous vehicles as they relate to urban/transportation design. It's interesting both for its perspective and because of its beautifully illustrated interactive method of communication.

I first tried this in the NYTimes app and it didn't work there. That suggests it might not work well on the mobile web either. I suggest opening this link on a computer, if possible.

Automated Vehicles Can't Save Cities
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ve-cities.html

[Jimaz]

It had to happen sooner or later.

An Uber self-driving car in Tempe [[Phoenix) AZ hit a pedestrian who later died in hospital. Uber has suspended testing in Phoenix pending investigation. The pedestrian was jaywalking, which of course doesn't excuse the incident, but that may have been a factor. A backup human driver failed to take control of the car in time. This will be an interesting legal precedent.

I think we're trying to move this technology too fast, no doubt pressured by Wall Street. Just because a thing can be done doesn't mean it needs to be done ASAP.

Factories often designate areas around robots as "no man zones" for a reason. That can't be done on a busy public street.

[Lowell]

^Ha beat me to it, just read this on the NY Times. I would going to title it
"And then one day there was one".

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/19/t...T.nav=top-news

As to your point of testing and deployment going too fast, it should slow down considerably as these stories grow.

I still think the route to public seduction will run through making cheap auto-pilot options standard. People need to experience the efficiency while still having the option of control.

[bust]

There are [[foreign) cities where motorcycle traffic has in the past two decades suddenly become an ever-present addition to the car traffic they've long had. They drive down the stripes marking the lanes, faster than cars when they get stuck in traffic, or at a stop light. Consequence: car and truck drivers now carefully stay in their lanes.

I'm an admitted frequent jaywalker, but once autonomous cars become more common [[soon), I expect that behavior to all but end. Or at least to proceed much more cautiously, or face dire risks, like this.

Likewise, with the coming ubiquity of traffic monitoring and control systems, I expect driving faster than the speed limit to become all but a thing of the past. Except, perhaps, in rural areas.

Of course, Armada will remain a speed trap.

[archfan]

...
I'm an admitted frequent jaywalker, but once autonomous cars become more common [[soon), I expect that behavior to all but end. Or at least to proceed much more cautiously, or face dire risks, like this.
...

I was thinking the opposite might eventually happen - jaywalkers would head into the road knowing that the very sophisticated sensors would detect and avoid them.

[ndavies]

I was thinking the opposite might eventually happen - jaywalkers would head into the road knowing that the very sophisticated sensors would detect and avoid them.

Very sophisticated sensors will not overcome the laws of Physics. People will die doing this. Even with the most sophisticated sensors and electronics, Stopping a 2 ton vehicle takes space and time.

This could also be a lesser evil type of case. Where the car has to decide who to kill. The pedestrian, the passengers of the car or the passengers in another car.

From the reports I've heard, It sounds like this woman abruptly darted out into traffic. The woman would have died even if there was a human driver. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...f-driving-uber

[oladub]

Last summer, my son drove a borrowed three year old Tesla S from the Twin Cities to Huntsville and back on interstate highways. He let it drive itself the entire way. The only thing the Tesla did wrong was get itself into a exit only lane and then exit the interstate. He took over long enough to re enter the interstate. That's where the technology was three or four years ago. My son says that the $5,000 Model 3 option, described below*, surpasses the self driving capability of the Tesla S he drove. He also said that GM will soon be able to match where Tesla is. He owns a Volt.

Self-driving cars will be a technological revolution on the level of computers. Want to drive somewhere without owning a garage, depreciation, and buying car insurance? Call or go online and the car, van, or truck you need will show up in front of your house within 15 minutes. Public transit and shipping will be revolutionized.

*This year's Tesla Model 3 has the following options:

• Enhanced autopilot – $5,000 – Match traffic conditions, keep in lane, automatically change lanes, transition from one freeway to another, exit freeway and self park
• Full self driving capability – $3,000 plus Enhanced Autopilot – This isn’t available now.

[stasu1213]

I think that if there is going to be automatic cars dominating the transit scene in Detroit these cars may be from a one or two seater for those who are traveling alone to a van for those who are traveling in groups. This would cut down on passengers riding with strangers in the same vehicle with no driver or mediator to deter anything happening to a passenger by the hands of the other passenger. I feel that Detroit, with it's many less traveled streets will be the experiment city for the Big 3 and others to test and show to the world automation. These cars would have sensors all around the body and cameras all around to pick up any objects such as a ball rolling in front of it and the car would stop suddenly. Those fail safes are already in place but the bugs need to be worked out of them. I think that the insurances for these auto cars would be sky high due to the risks involved that could lead to accidents to even deaths to the passengers as well as pedestrians and others who may be in it's path

[bust]

It all depends whether the laws and regulations set the right terms for this revolutionary new economy. That will determine some of the logic behind the algorithms, the risk, the liability, and most everything else. And who invests in the infrastructure. They will set many of the terms too. I have no doubt the technology will be ready soon, and will adapt.

Meanwhile, here's more recent analysis and theory on the likely traffic implications:

The Perfect Selfishness of Mapping Apps
Apps like Waze, Google Maps, and Apple Maps may make traffic conditions worse in some areas, new research suggests.
https://www.theatlantic.com/technolo...narchy/555551/

At least one city already plans to prohibit non-residents from driving their streets during high-traffic hours. Which raises more issues.

Navigation Apps Are Turning Quiet Neighborhoods Into Traffic Nightmares
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/24/n...hborhoods.html

[Lowell]

In the long run, if not already, I think insurance rates will be lower for auto-pilot vehicles, although that might get eaten by the expense of insuring the physical sensing elements.

I am almost certain that statistics prove auto pilot driving records are considerably better than that of the general public where, on the average, ten per cent are legally drunk, others texting and a large numbers infirm or just plain poorly skilled.

Good point about the effects of Waze and the other apps diverting traffic through side street bypasses. Shhh. I must admit it is good while it lasts. Guilty as charged.

As driver and driverless navigation takes over those advantages will disappear.

[Jimaz]

Experts: Uber SUV's autonomous system should have seen woman

The lights on the SUV did not illuminate Herzberg until a second or two before impact, raising questions about whether the vehicle could have stopped in time.

I didn't even realize the event happened at night. The vehicle was moving at 40 MPH.

[Lowell]

Good read about a downtown resident Free Press reporter Randy Essex and wife going carless. Makes a lot of sense.

https://www.freep.com/story/money/ca...ing/623302002/

Less ambitiously Mrs. Lowell and I have two vehicles and are weighing going to one, now that there are so many ride and vehicle-sharing options available and convenient. Anyone else contemplating vehicle reduction?

[Jimaz]

A good story showing how Ford plowed through all obstacles to get the F-150 back into production after the Meridian fire:

From panic to triumph: Behind the scenes of Ford's epic F-150 restart

... The story of the recovery involves Ford crews sleeping in tents at the site of a fire at a key supplier's factory in rural Michigan as they waited to retrieve critical tools. They strapped together a new supply chain involving five countries — what one analyst called the equivalent of "hitting a grand slam in the World Series."...

The crisis for Ford was such that the company secured the pricey services of the world's largest cargo plane....

Parts are being made in Nottingham, U.K., and being flown back to the U.S. on 747 aircraft every day, Hinrichs said....

I'd like to see that story made into a movie.