What will Detroit look like in 20 years?

[Hermod]

Detroit's last annexation was in 1927 when they gobbled up half of Redford Township. The other half should have been gobbled up quickly, but as you all know, it wasn't.

Dearborn should have been annexed along with Springwells Township, and it might have, since Springwells feared Detroit way back then and aligned with Dearborn [[including the entire township), instead. The Grosse Pointe's, remnants of the ribbon farms, should never have existed in the first place, and that would have given Detroit land up to Macomb county. Downriver, Ecorse and River Rouge could have been annexed well before they incorporated. Lack of vision on the Detroit leaders of the twenties.

Which brings us to the infamous Eight Mile Road. Was there something in the Michigan Constitution that prevented expansion into Warren, Southfield, Oak Park, and all those fiefdoms? I know not.

Anyway, had the civic leaders in the early 20th century thought ahead, the City of Detroit might well have been a megapolis of four million souls in three counties today. It could have happened. But my favorite word, "Fiefdom" shot it all down.

I guess a question. Is there any place in the State of Michigan where a municipal annexation has crossed a county line? I guess you would have to look at maps and see if that was ever done. That might well be the reason that Eight Mile is such a barrier.

In Michigan, a city cannot annex another city without its consent. The Grosse Pointes are like Highland Park and Hamtramack in that regard.

Why didn't the city take the whole of Redford Twp? Because they took only the economically advantageous part. The remainder was too sparsely populated to make it desirable. You have to extend city services into an area that doesn't provide much tax revenue. Cities only want to be able to "grab the goodies".

As far as a tri-county consolidation into a "Greater Detroit", do you think that the politicians in Detroit who would represent 500,000 people in districts would want to be "back-benchers" on a council representing 4 million? The political power currently present in Detroit would be marginalized and the Detroit pols on the take would never stand for it.

[emu steve]

http://www.freep.com/story/money/bus...ets/512082001/

Freep article.

BTW, I liked that the article debunked the notion of the movement to the exurbs. We have a thread on it.

Lest I be wrong, the movement to the exurbs is basically over and the movement is in the other direction, inner suburbs and even toward downtowns.

"This report is hardly the first to raise some of these issues. The metro area has been scrambling for some time now to switch from a model of building huge new McMansions on the suburban fringes to accommodating demand for rental units in walkable environments like Birmingham, Royal Oak, Ferndale, and downtown Detroit."

[MicrosoftFan]

What is really happening is a move from the inner ring suburbs- Millenials go to the city and their parents go to the exurbs, it's been happening in places like Southfield and Lincoln Park for decades now.

[Bham1982]

Lest I be wrong, the movement to the exurbs is basically over and the movement is in the other direction, inner suburbs and even toward downtowns.

You would be wrong. The Census 2016 data reports that all the fastest growing Metro Detroit communities are exurban townships.

[emu steve]

You would be wrong. The Census 2016 data reports that all the fastest growing Metro Detroit communities are exurban townships.

I think that my statement [[see my post) was a generic statement, not S.E. Michigan specific. You can see that by my usage of terms like 'downtowns.'

As is usually the case, trends start in California, move to the east coast and then inwards.

To use the old expression, S.E. Michigan is "late to the party" and no one would consider Wayne County/Detroit to be representative of large cities/counties across America. Most large cities are growing in terms of population. There are exceptions in large part the rust belt.

[SammyS]

I for one am done with home remodeling, maintenance, landscaping etc etc.....and I'm decades away from retirement. Can't imagine soon-to-be empty nesters interested in owning 3000 sf suburban digs where everything is a drive away. In fact, I'm finding it even harder to imagine the next generation interested in that lifestyle also. Personally, I think this urbanization experiment has finally ran its 70 year long course and already beginning to contract

[emu steve]

Talking about the general issue of big cities and are they growing [[or shrinking). Looking at cities with a pop of 500K+ only Detroit and Baltimore show a pop. loss since 2010 according to Census bureau estimates.

Very impressive growth in the sun belt and west and also some 'older' cities in the east [[Boston, D.C., etc.) and Midwest [[e.g. Columbus).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._by_population

[Bigb23]

I had a City Planner give me a study book back in the early 70's that was for local use only. Can you imagine a current Midtown complex that would run from downtown Detroit to Flint, with a few Disneyesque flourishes here and there? I wish I had that book now.
At least for a laugh.

[emu steve]

I had a City Planner give me a study book back in the early 70's that was for local use only. Can you imagine a current Midtown complex that would run from downtown Detroit to Flint, with a few Disneyesque flourishes here and there? I wish I had that book now.
At least for a laugh.

Wow, talking about not seeing the forest for the trees.

The trend toward suburbanization and loss of population in Detroit was picking up steam and became worse after the 1967 civil disorder.

Other big cites, e.g., N.Y. Boston, D.C. all lost significant pop in the 70s.

The question today, I think, is the re-growth of big cities as urban sprawl and long commutes are losing favor.

As always it will be on a city by city basis with each city having its own narrative.

[Pat001]

One thing for sure, 20 years from now, people will be talking about how Detroit is "coming back."

[Honky Tonk]

One thing for sure, 20 years from now, people will be talking about how Detroit is "coming back."

Kudos.....

[313WX]

One thing for sure, 20 years from now, people will be talking about how Detroit is "coming back."

That, and the Lions will still be just as sorry as they are now.

[401don]

That, and the Lions will still be just as sorry as they are now.

Don't be so pessimistic. After all, the Gordie Howe Bridge should be almost completed.

[mtburb]

Don't be so pessimistic. After all, the Gordie Howe Bridge should be almost completed.

In fact, if any more planning gets done right within the next few years or so, it should already be well into operation by then.

[SammyS]

One thing for sure, 20 years from now, people will be talking about how Detroit is "coming back."

I've been here for 16 years and no one has ever said shit about Detroit coming back until about 2 years ago. Even the so called experts and RE investors were down on the D all along. Peculiar thing I've noticed is that outsiders are way more optimistic on Detroit.

[Bham1982]

I've been here for 16 years and no one has ever said shit about Detroit coming back until about 2 years ago. Even the so called experts and RE investors were down on the D all along. Peculiar thing I've noticed is that outsiders are way more optimistic on Detroit.

This is 100% bull. People have been talking about Detroit "coming back" since the riots.

In the 1980's, some of the biggest real estate developers on earth, Hines and Madden, chose to build huge office towers downtown. Other major developers were circling. Luxury hotels and department stores were planned. Detroit was considered the next big thing.

How long as DYes been around? I guarantee that, as long as this site as existed, people have breathlessly claimed the city is entering a great Renaissance.

[ABetterDetroit]

This is 100% bull. People have been talking about Detroit "coming back" since the riots.

In the 1980's, some of the biggest real estate developers on earth, Hines and Madden, chose to build huge office towers downtown. Other major developers were circling. Luxury hotels and department stores were planned. Detroit was considered the next big thing.

How long as DYes been around? I guarantee that, as long as this site as existed, people have breathlessly claimed the city is entering a great Renaissance.

The man said in the 16 years since he has been here.

2001 to the bankruptcy were not years that rational people declared a successful comeback underway with the possible exception of the Mayor who is serving a long term in Federal Prison. [[Depending on opinion of how rational one thinks he was.)

Compared to the 14 years before the end of bankruptcy; post bankruptcy, there has been a comeback of sorts that people are talking about. Whether or not it actually is a 'comeback' is subjective.

[SammyS]

The man said in the 16 years since he has been here.

2001 to the bankruptcy were not years that rational people declared a successful comeback underway with the possible exception of the Mayor who is serving a long term in Federal Prison. [[Depending on opinion of how rational one thinks he was.)

Compared to the 14 years before the end of bankruptcy; post bankruptcy, there has been a comeback of sorts that people are talking about. Whether or not it actually is a 'comeback' is subjective.

Thanks for clarifying what I said.

I think it's beyond subjective. Selling prices are hitting all time highs with no sign of any impending correction so far. Sell times are still in weeks rather than years or months and occupancy rates are at levels never dreamt of before.....and that includes the massive recent inventory bump.

I have been accused of being a "booster" on this forum before but I offer no apologies for that. I truly believe Detroit has turned a corner and will reward those who share in its optimism. I don't just want this to happen, I know it is already happening.

[313WX]

This is 100% bull. People have been talking about Detroit "coming back" since the riots.

In the 1980's, some of the biggest real estate developers on earth, Hines and Madden, chose to build huge office towers downtown. Other major developers were circling. Luxury hotels and department stores were planned. Detroit was considered the next big thing.

How long as DYes been around? I guarantee that, as long as this site as existed, people have breathlessly claimed the city is entering a great Renaissance.

^^^This is one of those few times that I co-sign Bham1982's post 100%.

[313WX]

Compared to the 14 years before the end of bankruptcy; post bankruptcy, there has been a comeback of sorts that people are talking about. Whether or not it actually is a 'comeback' is subjective.

Well sure, we may no longer be at rock bottom, but that's a pretty low bar to achieve when you're like 1,000ft under water [[as you're still deep under water).

[Pat001]

I've been here for 16 years and no one has ever said shit about Detroit coming back until about 2 years ago. Even the so called experts and RE investors were down on the D all along. Peculiar thing I've noticed is that outsiders are way more optimistic on Detroit.

The Renaissance Center was named the Ren Cen when construction started in 1973 because it was supposed to be the official symbol of Detroit's rebirth. Unfortunately the Ren Cen turned out to be an island fortress.

Young people would not know "comeback talk" has been nonstop for 50 years. If one were to look at copies of the Detroit News, Free Press, Detroit city magazines or local TV newscasts from 1970 through today, they will be full of stories telling how Detroit is "coming back." Even when Detroit declared bankruptcy in 2013, the comeback talk didn't stop. Today we call that kind of reporting "fake news."

IMHO, it is more accurate to say Detroit is transforming - from a manufacturing economy where unskilled/uneducated workers earned high wages to a post-manufacturing economy where unskilled/uneducated workers earn subsistence wages and educated workers earn high wages.

How that transformation works out over the next 20-50 years is anybody's guess because predictions are hard to make, especially about the future. The only sure thing is that "comeback talk" won't ever stop.

[oladub]

What are the chances of a nuclear world war and/or economic depression in the next twenty years? Those are national issues and Detroit would go down with the ship like other cities. Both political parties are expanding the corporatist police state nationally. Important tech changes include 3-d printing and self driving vehicles. Self driving vehicles would make local public transportation, as we know it, obsolete. 3-d printing will make a lot of contemporary small batch manufacturing obsolete. Both will eliminate a lot of jobs particularly unskilled and semi-skilled jobs. Self driving vehicles would make the trip to burbs a more positive experience. Don't give up on the suburbs yet. Detroit will react like other cities to massive technological changes which may eclipse anything going on locally.

Setting possible catastrophes and technical changes aside, Detroit will grow. The new center and downtown will expand, join together, and be a core city within a larger undefined outer frontier city that will gradually be reclaimed a few acres at a time. Flint's water problem was partially due to there being not enough people running water through the pipes. This will happen in outer Detroit. The water system and streets will break down and won't all be replaced. That valuable grid of in place utilities and roads will either have to be used soon or they will be greatly shrunk. Large apartment complexes/gated communities will locally change street patterns and utilities anyway around the edges of an expanding inner Detroit.

Detroit's population will experience moderate growth but Detroit will never again be the nation's fourth largest city. All racial groups will expand with significant percentage increases of Arabs, and Hispanics. A large black middle class although outnumbered by whites will be part of inner Detroit accompanied by expanded private security forces and private schools to accommodate this middle class. Inner Detroit will be truly integrated. Arabs and Hispanics, and perhaps Hmong will occupy, stabilize, and revitalize some neighborhoods in outer Detroit. The black underclass facing increased competition for jobs from Mexicans and robotics and will partly drift off or shuffled off to inner ring suburbs facilitated with Section 8 housing assistance assuming Democrats are returned to power nationally.

[Hermod]

I for one am done with home remodeling, maintenance, landscaping etc etc.....and I'm decades away from retirement. Can't imagine soon-to-be empty nesters interested in owning 3000 sf suburban digs where everything is a drive away. In fact, I'm finding it even harder to imagine the next generation interested in that lifestyle also. Personally, I think this urbanization experiment has finally ran its 70 year long course and already beginning to contract

Owning a large house is often a pain in the butt, but a lot of empty nesters do it. After raising kids in very constrained and affordable places in their younger years and driving station wagons and mini-vans, they finally have enough money to do what they want. Some splurge on McMansions, some buy a cowboy pickup truck, some buy sports cars. Hey, it is their money, let them have a bit of fun.

[1953]

What are the chances of a nuclear world war and/or economic depression in the next twenty years? Those are national issues and Detroit would go down with the ship like other cities. Both political parties are expanding the corporatist police state nationally. Important tech changes include 3-d printing and self driving vehicles. Self driving vehicles would make local public transportation, as we know it, obsolete. 3-d printing will make a lot of contemporary small batch manufacturing obsolete. Both will eliminate a lot of jobs particularly unskilled and semi-skilled jobs. Self driving vehicles would make the trip to burbs a more positive experience. Don't give up on the suburbs yet. Detroit will react like other cities to massive technological changes which may eclipse anything going on locally.

Setting possible catastrophes and technical changes aside, Detroit will grow. The new center and downtown will expand, join together, and be a core city within a larger undefined outer frontier city that will gradually be reclaimed a few acres at a time. Flint's water problem was partially due to there being not enough people running water through the pipes. This will happen in outer Detroit. The water system and streets will break down and won't all be replaced. That valuable grid of in place utilities and roads will either have to be used soon or they will be greatly shrunk. Large apartment complexes/gated communities will locally change street patterns and utilities anyway around the edges of an expanding inner Detroit.

Detroit's population will experience moderate growth but Detroit will never again be the nation's fourth largest city. All racial groups will expand with significant percentage increases of Arabs, and Hispanics. A large black middle class although outnumbered by whites will be part of inner Detroit accompanied by expanded private security forces and private schools to accommodate this middle class. Inner Detroit will be truly integrated. Arabs and Hispanics, and perhaps Hmong will occupy, stabilize, and revitalize some neighborhoods in outer Detroit. The black underclass facing increased competition for jobs from Mexicans and robotics and will partly drift off or shuffled off to inner ring suburbs facilitated with Section 8 housing assistance assuming Democrats are returned to power nationally.

I don't imagine we will be #4 in population anytime soon, but its just as short sighted to say we never will be #4 again as it is to say we will have a true "renaissance" anytime soon.

That said, we will probably all be dead from the spiraling out of control of artificial intelligence technology in the next 20-30 years, maybe sooner.

1953

[emu steve]

Or I share this email from a friend [[referring to an optimistic article):

"Except for the possibility of a thermonuclear war with those crazies in North Korea, the article is a very good read and very well-written. However, a thermonuclear war can still ruin your whole day."