What will Detroit look like in 20 years?

[SammyS]

- Yes, finally, Michigan Central is fully restored, including active train operation.

one step closer

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CotBxJ8Kyl0

[dtowncitylover]

1. No, The Detroit Freeway system was planned much, much earlier than Eisenhower. Construction of the Lodge and Ford began in the 1940s under Mayor Jeffries [[and Truman) when I was in grade school [[Anthony Wayne). Cities saw the Eisenhower Interstate Highway program as a massive piggy bank to fund their expressway plans though Ike's original concept was to connect cities to each other by high speed freeways. As a result, the Detroit freeways with an "I" designation were 90% funded by Uncle Sugar [[7.5% by Michigan, and the remainder split between Wayne County and Detroit. The Southfield, Davison, and Lodge did not have any federal support. If you look at the 1940 plans for freeways in Detroit, the Chrysler was originally called the Hastings Freeway.

2. I said that I didn't have any idea as what to do with the 300,000 people because nothing seemed workable. All of the concepts that i laid out were illegal, immoral, or fattening. It is just that those 300,000 are a millstone around the neck of a city which is trying to keep afloat.

3. What is happening is that Gilbert, the illitches, and other developers plus Wayne University have created a Potemkin Village which really looks good, but hides the real deeper problems which have destroyed what once was one of the five great cities of America and which is holding back its true growth.

Except Mayor Jeffries was a what? A Republican! In fact from 1924 to 1962, only two mayors lasting 5 years were Democratic. Obviously mayors don't have all of the control and at that time freeways were the "new" thing. But their destructive nature to urban fabric was impressive and regretful.

How about the moral thing to do with helping 300,000 people is a mixture of free-market and government sponsored policies that could help invest in people's lives and communities. Nothing immoral or illegal about that. I think an immoral, or at the very least very callous, thing to do would make a flippant remark about dehumanizing 300,000 people and telling them we should move them elsewhere to create a "better city".

And really, besides the Arena, the investment brought into the city has shown that they are working to reinstate an urbanity back to the city. Especially the new rule in midtown against any new strip mall type developments [[which really should be instituted city-wide). And I'm not even sure what you mean by them suffocating the true problems? Racism? Urban sprawl/car-centricty? They've added to those problems?

[emu steve]

Certainly, but you have to start somewhere. One of the original ideas behind what is now called QLine [[and Mr. Gilbert threw in a flaming crap-ton of money so that it can be called that, so thank you Mr. Gilbert and I will call it what you would like me to) was that Detroit needed an anchor to rebuild from, and the downtown-midtown corridor seemed promising. Woodward was still, then, in 2006 or 2007 when we were drawing this shit on the back of pub napkins, a quite-busy street, downtown had quite a bit going on, Wayne State and the cultural center institutions could anchor midtown, and in the middle of it, where there hadn't been much going on at all for a long time, Mr. Ilitch had refurbished the Fox and put his offices next door.

So the question, right now, is how do we take the successes we are seeing in the QLine corridor and extend them - bring some nice mix of retail back into the neighborhoods east, west and north of the corridor, and then spread that over time. It's going to take time and a lot of effort, and over that period mistakes will be made, and not everything is going to work, for a thousand different reasons. Detroit did not fail overnight or for any single reason or in any single place, and the rebuilding of Detroit isn't going to be any simpler than its large-scale destruction and abandonment had been.

As far as the core thread discussion, I won't even, because I know math and chaos theory. Your weatherman can't even get the weather right when he looks out eight days, with all the tools and history at his disposal. [[Check this for yourself a couple times. You'd do just as well throwing darts at a dartboard full of weather forecasts.) Predicting anything out 20 years is just a fun and pointless thing to do, not much different than golfing or working out a crossword. If I'm still here to see it, whatever it is, I'll be surprised.

Agree with a lot of points here and other posts.

The biggest factor, I think, is demographic and the trend toward moving toward downtowns in many cities, not just Detroit.

Gilbert didn't change history, but he caught the trend and capitalized on it big time!!

If he had tried earlier say 2000, 1990, etc. it would most likely failed big time.

So the big energy will be downtown, Midtown, New Center with new housing with hundreds of units while most of the single family neighborhoods will improve one or two houses [[on a block) at a time.

Certain other neighborhoods, e.g., river front, Corktown, etc. will get more multi-family housing and that will cause commercial activity to move forward.

Business people will always look for neighborhoods which have growing populations and attaining 'critical mass' to support a grocery store, Starbucks, etc. etc.

If I had to predict population growth in the next 10 [[or 20, as suggested by the thread title) years:

1). High population growth: downtown, Midtown, New Center.

2). Medium population growth: e.g., Riverfront, Corktown, etc.

3). Low growth / stable neighborhoods: I'll let others specify them.

4). Declining neighborhoods: Again, I'll let others specify them.

Single family neighborhoods have declined and will continue to do so because of small family size [[less people per house) and an aging population while in 20 years there could be say 5 or 10K new housing units, mostly multi-family, in downtown, Midtown, New Center with younger occupants.

I see 'two' Detroits, a younger Detroit in downtown, Midtown, New Center, Corktown, and an older Detroit mostly living in single family homes across the city.

[mwilbert]

Why the constant fascination with the population number for Detroit?

Per capita income is the critical stat that needs to increase.

This is correct. Population will take care of itself.

[mwilbert]

Single family neighborhoods have declined and will continue to do so because of small family size [[less people per house) and an aging population while in 20 years there could be say 5 or 10K new housing units, mostly multi-family, in downtown, Midtown, New Center with younger occupants.

If there aren't more than 10K new housing units in greater Downtown within 20 years, I will be surprised, and it will likely mean that the city's revival has stalled and/or reversed. Prices have already reached a level where development should be minimally constrained by the need for the limited number of tax credits.

[Bham1982]

Obviously population is much more important than wealth. A poor Detroit with 900k will be much healthier than a rich Detroit of 300k.

We want an urban city, no? People on the streets, riding the buses, engaging with the city. You need people. Cities cannot survive based on temporary transient singles. A city built for 2 million needs as many people as possible.

[MicrosoftFan]

I think the general revival will spread out to the neighborhoods around Old Redford/Rosedale Park, Southwest, Core City, 12th Street Corridor on NW side, UD Mercy Area, EEV and GP border area, and possibly Conant Gardens someday in the far future.

Basically anywhere with an empty commercial center [[7 Mile/Conant, Grand River/Lahser, Grand River/Greenfield, Livernois Woodward and Warren corridors)

And I wouldn't rule out a revival of North Highland Park near Palmer Park, or possibly even the south side near North End.

[mwilbert]

Obviously population is much more important than wealth. A poor Detroit with 900k will be much healthier than a rich Detroit of 300k.

We want an urban city, no? People on the streets, riding the buses, engaging with the city. You need people. Cities cannot survive based on temporary transient singles. A city built for 2 million needs as many people as possible.

First, Detroit wasn't built for 2 million people, and it certainly isn't built for 2 million people in an era where the average household size is 2.5 people and falling, and where hundreds of thousands of dwelling units have been lost. You could have an urban city with huge density inside greater Downtown with way less than 300,000 people.

But this is a false choice. There are a ton of relatively poor people in Detroit who aren't going anywhere anytime soon. The way in which you get higher per-capita income is to improve the incomes of the people here to the extent possible, and to add a bunch of new, higher-income people. You are very unlikely to see higher per-capita incomes and see population falling to anything like 300,000, because the people who would be leaving aren't the lowest-income ones. Maybe if there were some kind of extremely deadly plague, primarily affecting poor people, which I agree would be very bad, but otherwise not. So in the short-to-medium term, I see higher incomes as a more important indicator than higher population. In the long run, I expect them to largely move together.

[Ray1936]

I'm pretty much a lurker any more. However, I have always had a nagging thought that I've rarely shared; that of city limit expansion.

Detroit's last annexation was in 1927 when they gobbled up half of Redford Township. The other half should have been gobbled up quickly, but as you all know, it wasn't.

Dearborn should have been annexed along with Springwells Township, and it might have, since Springwells feared Detroit way back then and aligned with Dearborn [[including the entire township), instead. The Grosse Pointe's, remnants of the ribbon farms, should never have existed in the first place, and that would have given Detroit land up to Macomb county. Downriver, Ecorse and River Rouge could have been annexed well before they incorporated. Lack of vision on the Detroit leaders of the twenties.

Which brings us to the infamous Eight Mile Road. Was there something in the Michigan Constitution that prevented expansion into Warren, Southfield, Oak Park, and all those fiefdoms? I know not.

Anyway, had the civic leaders in the early 20th century thought ahead, the City of Detroit might well have been a megapolis of four million souls in three counties today. It could have happened. But my favorite word, "Fiefdom" shot it all down.

Just sayin'. Take your shots!

[emu steve]

For those who are optimistic for the future of big cities here is an article suggesting that the movement to downtowns is not simply the work on one man, Dan Gilbert, or one city, Detroit.

Here is a story out of Chicago:

"Now its leafy environs are considered a liability. Locked in a battle with companies of all stripes to woo top tech workers and young professionals, McDonald’s executives announced last year that they were putting the property up for sale and moving to the West Loop of Chicago where “L” trains arrive every few minutes and construction cranes dot the skyline."

"In Chicago, McDonald’s will join a slew of other companies — among them food giant Kraft .Heinz, farming supplier ADM and telecommunications firm Motorola Solutions — all looking to appeal to and be near young professionals versed in the world of e-commerce, software analytics, digital engineering, marketing and finance."

So for Detroit, it is more than simply the Lions or Pistons moving/moved to downtown but part of a corporate culture which increasingly values downtowns over suburbs.

And millenials are driving this train... And I think Gilbert, VERY wisely, got on this train very early and has enriched both himself and Detroit.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...=.54f833ac99cd

[emu steve]

P.S. I heard a brief comment during the Tigers telecast from San Diego that Petco Park helped transform that area of downtown San Diego.

Downtowns are where to put work and leisure these days. A complete reversal of the the 1970s and 80s.

So in the last say 50 years we've seen jobs, sports, etc. move from the big city to the suburb and now they are coming back. Full circle.

[SammyS]

P.S. I heard a brief comment during the Tigers telecast from San Diego that Petco Park helped transform that area of downtown San Diego.

Downtowns are where to put work and leisure these days. A complete reversal of the the 1970s and 80s.

So in the last say 50 years we've seen jobs, sports, etc. move from the big city to the suburb and now they are coming back. Full circle.

As I've said in other threads, I totally agree with the reversal that's taking place. Detroit may be amongst the last to conform and investors/developers with foresight know this. It's their business to front run trends and take risks. I believe they will be rewarded with major dividends since no other city I've ever visited had/has so much potential.

[ABetterDetroit]

P.S. I heard a brief comment during the Tigers telecast from San Diego that Petco Park helped transform that area of downtown San Diego.

Mario and Rod have weighed in?

Well this changes everything!

They have to be the most unbiased, most informed highly educated guys that ever could be found on the subject without conflict from who is signing the checks.

Ends any debate forever no doubt.

[emu steve]

Mario and Rod have weighed in?

Well this changes everything!

They have to be the most unbiased, most informed highly educated guys that ever could be found on the subject without conflict from who is signing the checks.

Ends any debate forever no doubt.

Is Ray1936 our man in So Cal? Calling Ray...

[emu steve]

Mario and Rod have weighed in?

Well this changes everything!

They have to be the most unbiased, most informed highly educated guys that ever could be found on the subject without conflict from who is signing the checks.

Ends any debate forever no doubt.

I know that Petco Stadium is in the Gaslamp Quarter area of San Diego. I don't the details of how that area revitalized.

[Ray1936]

Is Ray1936 our man in So Cal? Calling Ray...

No, I'm in Henderson, Nevada, the second largest city in Nevada. One of our suburbs is Las Vegas. I don't have anything nice to say about Southern California unless they unseat Nancy Pelosi.

[emu steve]

Nancy is a San Francisco liberal.

Orange County and San Diego are more conservative.

[313WX]

Nancy is a San Francisco liberal.

Orange County and San Diego are more conservative.

A "San Francisco" liberal is also conservative [[fiscally).

[Pat001]

20 years from now Detroit will look pretty much like it did 20 years ago.

[Colombian Dan]

What's an "urban city?"..

[night-timer]

I believe this time Detroit is over the hump toward a permanent improvement.

I hope so. But do you mean in Downtown and its vicinity only? Nobody in blighted outer neighborhoods is seeing what you're seeing. On another post only recently, Lowell mentioned all the changes since he first started the Fabulous Ruins of Detroit website and the [[now somewhat passe') ruin porn obsession, but, again, that may be speaking of a Downtown focus, not citywide. The porn is still there if you want to go looking for it.

[archfan]

I hope so. But do you mean in Downtown and its vicinity only? Nobody in blighted outer neighborhoods is seeing what you're seeing. On another post only recently, Lowell mentioned all the changes since he first started the Fabulous Ruins of Detroit website and the [[now somewhat passe') ruin porn obsession, but, again, that may be speaking of a Downtown focus, not citywide. The porn is still there if you want to go looking for it.

You're right, I should have said downtown. I think downtown revival was a necessary but not sufficient step to improving the neighborhoods.

[emu steve]

You're right, I should have said downtown. I think downtown revival was a necessary but not sufficient step to improving the neighborhoods.

I agree with your 'necessary but not sufficient' regarding downtown.

I think that downtown will see more 'dramatic' changes as Hudsons site, Farmer, fail jail site, etc. etc. fill in empty blocks and bring more employees, shoppers, residents, etc. downtown. West side of Woodward will get better slowly over time.

Neighborhoods would seem more dicey and harder to predict how they will revitalize.

[emu steve]

Twenty years is hard to project or predict, but this article gives clues to downtown now and through say 2020.

Without sounding like a cliche, the best guess of the future starts with where something is today.

Based on that, the downtown office market [[and residential) are very strong so one would expect the upward trend to continue until there is softening of the commercial or residential markets or the local economy goes south.

http://www.crainsdetroit.com/article..._medium=social

[emu steve]

Good study done by the Urban Institute in D.C. perfectly inline with this thread. Their study is Detroit 2040, or 23 years out.

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/new...wth/104031902/

I'm not sure anyone would really disagree that Detroit/region will get older with more and more senior households, influx of Latinos, some increase in younger populations [[say 18 - 34), and a lot more multi-family rental housing.

One thing I believe we've seen is how big cities don't seem to be building much single family housing any more. Whenever housing is built it is almost all multi-family, and rental, not condo ownership, at that.

So are big cities going to be older populations [[including seniors) living in single family homes and younger populations [[say 18 - 34) living in multi-family housing, frequently in downtowns?

"Kurt Metzger, head of Data Driven Detroit, said he generally agreed with the results in the study. “In the near term, Detroit will see more housing development than the suburbs due to millennial and baby-boomer demand for lofts and apartments — away from single family construction,” Metzger wrote in an email. Metzger, who also is mayor of Pleasant Ridge, cautioned that he had not had much time to read the study."