2017 Detroit Lions

[emu steve]

I do know if the Falcons [[6th & last seed) win tonight, Detroit's [[8-6) probability drops to 14%.....if the Lions win their last 2-games, way too many factors to determine the wild-card odds;

Falcons are [[8-5), Cowboys [[8-6), Seahawks [[8-6).

I was in Detroit and went to the Falcons game. Little did I know that the disputed loss would mean... for the 2017 Lions season.

BTW, if the Lions win both and the Falcons win 1 of 3, we are likely based on tiebreakers. Correct?

[Cincinnati_Kid]

I do know if the Falcons [[6th & last seed) win tonight, Detroit's [[8-6) probability drops to 14%.....if the Lions win their last 2-games, way too many factors to determine the wild-card odds;

Falcons are [[8-5), Cowboys [[8-6), Seahawks [[8-6).

If Atlanta wins tonight, GB is eliminated, which could help Detroit, because they probably won't play Aaron Rodgers coming off his injury the last 2 games of the season, vs Minnesota at home, and the final at Detroit. Hope he doesn't play, he owns the Lions. If the Lions lose 1 game, and the Cowboys or Seattle win out, Detroit is eliminated. Dallas has a tough remaining schedule. At home vs Seattle and at Philadelphia, though they get Elliot back. Atlanta is at NO and home to Carolina, both tough games. Seattle is at Dallas and home to Arizona. If Atlanta loses both remaining games, Detroit should get in. At the moment, Lions have a better conference record than Dallas and Seattle at 7-4. They need to win out, and hope for help realistically.

[Smirnoff]

Which option would you select;

A. Lions make the playoffs, lose the 1st game, Caldwell is around for 3 more years.

B. Lions miss the playoffs, Caldwell gets the boot, Lions announce a new coach & coaching staff for next season.

BTW: Caldwell's record is just 4-23 w/Lions against teams that have winning record.....

[softailrider]

Which option would you select;

A. Lions make the playoffs, lose the 1st game, Caldwell is around for 3 more years.

B. Lions miss the playoffs, Caldwell gets the boot, Lions announce a new coach & coaching staff for next season.

BTW: Caldwell's record is just 4-23 w/Lions against teams that have winning record.....

I much prefer option A. They are way over due for a playoff win. It’s not an automatic loss.

[Knocturnal]

I was in Detroit and went to the Falcons game. Little did I know that the disputed loss would mean... for the 2017 Lions season.

BTW, if the Lions win both and the Falcons win 1 of 3, we are likely based on tiebreakers. Correct?

Yes, if ATL loses 2 of 3 and the Lions win their final two games, we clinch the final wild card.

[EastsideAl]

Yes, if ATL loses 2 of 3 and the Lions win their final two games, we clinch the final wild card.

Well, the Bucs didn't do the Lions any favors tonight, missing a potential game-tying FG on the last play of the game. So now The Falcons would need to lose their last 2 games [[vs. Saints and Panthers) and the Lions would need to win their last 2 games, for the Lions to have any shot at the playoffs. A Falcons win next week ends the Lions' already scant chances.

[emu steve]

Well, the Bucs didn't do the Lions any favors tonight, missing a potential game-tying FG on the last play of the game. So now The Falcons would need to lose their last 2 games [[vs. Saints and Panthers) and the Lions would need to win their last 2 games, for the Lions to have any shot at the playoffs. A Falcons win next week ends the Lions' already scant chances.

Yep.

A statistician calculating probabilities would do it by multiplying the probabilities of four independent events, i.e., the two lions games and the two Falcons games. These are my guesses as to the probabilities of individual games. [[e.g., .75 chance of beating the Bengals might be too high. Don't know).

Probs of Lions' wins say .75 [[Bengals) x .6 [[Packers) = .45 [[45%) that the Lions win out.

Probs of Falcons losing say .67 [[@Saints) x .6 [[Panthers) = .4 [[40%) that the Falcons lose out.

And the prob of both Lions and Falcons events = .45 x .4 = .18 [[18%).

As Al indicated, a Bucs win last night would have been HUGE for the Lions.

For those who like to mix politics and sports, many of the better prognosticators had Trump at about 25 - 33% to win last November [[they assume a Clinton win in the popular vote of say 4%) and Doug Jones about 20% to win last Tuesday in Alabama.

Crazy things happen.

Do folks remember that Vegas had the over/under line for the Tigers at 85 wins last March, and then the season imploded.

I believe the Astros were not even the betting choice to win the AL [[that was CLE).

Lot of weird things happening in sports and politics...

[emu steve]

Yes, if ATL loses 2 of 3 and the Lions win their final two games, we clinch the final wild card.

Damn, if ATL had lost last night, then ATL had to win BOTH @Saints and Panthers to ENSURE making the playoffs. That wouldn't be easy at all.

[softailrider]

Yep.

A statistician calculating probabilities would do it by multiplying the probabilities of four independent events, i.e., the two lions games and the two Falcons games. These are my guesses as to the probabilities of individual games. [[e.g., .75 chance of beating the Bengals might be too high. Don't know).

Probs of Lions' wins say .75 [[Bengals) x .6 [[Packers) = .45 [[45%) that the Lions win out.

Probs of Falcons losing say .67 [[@Saints) x .6 [[Panthers) = .4 [[40%) that the Falcons lose out.

And the prob of both Lions and Falcons events = .45 x .4 = .18 [[18%).

As Al indicated, a Bucs win last night would have been HUGE for the Lions.

For those who like to mix politics and sports, many of the better prognosticators had Trump at about 25 - 33% to win last November [[they assume a Clinton win in the popular vote of say 4%) and Doug Jones about 20% to win last Tuesday in Alabama.

Crazy things happen.

Do folks remember that Vegas had the over/under line for the Tigers at 85 wins last March, and then the season imploded.

I believe the Astros were not even the betting choice to win the AL [[that was CLE).

Lot of weird things happening in sports and politics...

I think I need a Tylenol or a Philadelphia lawyer to figure all that out.

[clubboss]

I think I need a Tylenol or a Philadelphia lawyer to figure all that out.

I put my pencil down halfway through the equation

[Bong-Man]

I was chuckling after I read the Press call the Chicago game a rout. It was 20-10, and any quarterback worth their salt would have torn us up. Same with the week before. Winston played a terrible game against us compared to last night. We're 3 games behind a team that's going to win the division with a back-up quarterback and without the division's best runner. The Vikings did it with defense, and until we own the best defense in the division, we don't stand a chance, and haven't for 24 years and counting. Our secondary is fine, our linebackers are young, but our D line doesn't exist. Even if Ngata was healthy, he would have lost his legs and petered out by game 10. That's what happens to the ancient in the NFL, and why Baltimore dumped him in the first place. Anyone left on the D line besides the under-achieving Ziggy would be nothing more than a part-time rotation player on another team, if that.


Letting go both Reiff and Warford and over-paying for older Wagner and TJ Lang was a mistake. No plan, no continuity, and no faith in your own drafting. Both have excelled with their new teams [[Vikings & Saints).

[emu steve]

Actually the logic is very easy [[no Tylenol required example).

One flips a coin and rolls a die:

The probability of a head = .50 [[1/2)

The probability of say '1' = .1667 [[1/6)

So the probability of getting a 'head' AND '1' for example = 1/2 * 1/6 = 1/12 or roughly 8%.

In the case of the Lions and Falcons, I subjectively assigned probabilities of each of their games being a win [[Lions) or loss [[Falcons). Instead of two events [[a coin toss and roll of a die) we have four events [[four NFL games). Lions must win both and Falcons lose both.

So if you read this morning the Lions have say a 15 - 20% chance of making the playoffs, it isn't rocket science, just basic statistics.

[Hypestyles]

I hope the lions get to the playoffs and win at least one game. Beyond that I have no illusions.
I don't know what, if anything, will be the perfect formula to have a super-bowl status team. it seems like the team perpetually has well meaning but otherwise win-deficient coaches for... years/decades now. Not sure how that changes. Detroit still isn't a "sexy" city to get drafted to compared to a top 5 media market city or a "legacy status" city like Green Bay. How popular is Lions apparel? Any way to diversify the stuff sold, make some more attractive fan clothing? [[I'm thinking go beyond the blue/silver dynamic)..

how many players are still on the team from the 2008 0-16 year?

[EastsideAl]

Absolutely pitiful performance today. Team looked only intermittently interested in actually trying to get to the playoffs. But played listless, mistake-filled football for most of the game, against an inferior team with nothing in particular to play for. Now all hope is lost and the season is all but over.

One would hope that this would bring a clearing out of many of the people involved with this unmotivated team. But it seems unlikely to happen, which means yet another year of underperforming and annoying mediocrity.

[emu steve]

Yep.

A statistician calculating probabilities would do it by multiplying the probabilities of four independent events, i.e., the two lions games and the two Falcons games. These are my guesses as to the probabilities of individual games. [[e.g., .75 chance of beating the Bengals might be too high. Don't know).

Probs of Lions' wins say .75 [[Bengals) x .6 [[Packers) = .45 [[45%) that the Lions win out.

Probs of Falcons losing say .67 [[@Saints) x .6 [[Panthers) = .4 [[40%) that the Falcons lose out.

And the prob of both Lions and Falcons events = .45 x .4 = .18 [[18%).

As Al indicated, a Bucs win last night would have been HUGE for the Lions.

For those who like to mix politics and sports, many of the better prognosticators had Trump at about 25 - 33% to win last November [[they assume a Clinton win in the popular vote of say 4%) and Doug Jones about 20% to win last Tuesday in Alabama.

Crazy things happen.

Do folks remember that Vegas had the over/under line for the Tigers at 85 wins last March, and then the season imploded.

I believe the Astros were not even the betting choice to win the AL [[that was CLE).

Lot of weird things happening in sports and politics...

This is why most would lose their behind gambling.

The 'rational' better would have chosen the Saints [[they won) but also have chosen the Lions [[and #$^&#$@!).

Maybe, the 'really' rational, knowledgeable bettor would have bet on the Saints and BENGALS, and won both.

[Smirnoff]

Great quote by Carlos Monarrez/Free Press;

"if Caldwell isn’t fired after this season, the Ford family should be investigated for consumer fraud by charging full price for a ticket next season. Caldwell needs to be fired immediately after Sunday’s season finale. We’ve seen enough in four years. He’s not the coach who is going to take the Lions to the next level of being a consistent winner and making sustained playoff runs. Bring in Josh McDaniels. Bring in Matt Patricia. Bring in just about anyone else. It’s time".

[Bong-Man]

The Lions had no choice but to sign Stafford to that huge contract, but most teams are forced to do it AFTER they win something. By doing it before, it pretty much guarantees roster holes under the salary cap for the foreseeable future.

That was our 10th different offensive line this season. We also signed a 33 year old veteran [[Wagner) to a 5 year deal. Why ? That's how you cover for players that you drafted that don't want to be here. Either he plays to 38, or you guaranteed some more dead money down the line on your salary cap. If you haven't noticed, we're pretty good at that.

[401don]

That was our 10th different offensive line this season. We also signed a 33 year old veteran [[Wagner) to a 5 year deal. Why ? That's how you cover for players that you drafted that don't want to be here. Either he plays to 38, or you guaranteed some more dead money down the line on your salary cap. If you haven't noticed, we're pretty good at that.

Guess they've been reading the Red Wings handbook.

[ABetterDetroit]

This is why most would lose their behind gambling.

The 'rational' better would have chosen the Saints [[they won) but also have chosen the Lions [[and #$^&#$@!).

Maybe, the 'really' rational, knowledgeable bettor would have bet on the Saints and BENGALS, and won both.

Betting Lions games is pretty simple.

Go against them on outdoor cold weather games and all games against any team above .500 and you will do well.

[softailrider]

Betting Lions games is pretty simple.

Go against them on outdoor cold weather games and all games against any team above .500 and you will do well.

No doubt about it, they don’t play very well outdoors. This was an amazing collapse, even for the Lions. I’m speechless. Of course it’s all his fault but, Stafford had to carry this team on his back and he certainly didn’t do that.

[Cincinnati_Kid]

There is nothing Jim Caldwell can do about injuries, I understand that. But he is totally responsible for having his team mentally prepared to play. That is where he woefully falls short. Too many times the Lions come out and play listless, with no sense of urgency like they don't want to be on the field, and for this reason, I expect him to be fired on "Black Monday" with a bunch of other head coaches. There will be a lot of openings after the season.

[emu steve]

I'm not with the OVERWHELMING number of fans, sports writers, etc. who think Caldwell should be fired.

His regular season record is 35 - 28 with Detroit.

I just don't see why a HC with a winning record with a franchise which has made losing an art-form deserves to be fired.

Caldwell took the Lions to the playoffs twice. That should be enough.

This team isn't the Browns... Or the Lions of 2008.

IF Lions don't quit Sunday and beat the Packers, no coach should be fired after a 9 - 7 season.

If the Lions were 6 - 10 or 7 - 9 maybe I would join the discussion...

[Cincinnati_Kid]

I'm not with the OVERWHELMING number of fans, sports writers, etc. who think Caldwell should be fired.

His regular season record is 35 - 28 with Detroit.

I just don't see why a HC with a winning record with a franchise which has made losing an art-form deserves to be fired.

Caldwell took the Lions to the playoffs twice. That should be enough.

This team isn't the Browns... Or the Lions of 2008.

IF Lions don't quit Sunday and beat the Packers, no coach should be fired after a 9 - 7 season.

If the Lions were 6 - 10 or 7 - 9 maybe I would join the discussion...

Ok, I understand your point. Caldwell has at least made them somewhat relevant. But what is keeping them from getting over the hump? Something is missing from this team, from a leadership standpoint. I just don't think Caldwell and his staff, has what it takes to take them to the next level. JBC's playing calling was innovative at first, now he's become predictable. We all know that you need a running attack with good defense to win. Lions have no ground game, so they are one dimensional. Lions secondary is pretty good, but the front 7 don't get enough pressure on the QB. There was one play that could have changed their fortunes, that Caldwell miffed on. That catch by Tate should have been challenged. I believe he held on to the ball long enough, before the defenders knocked it out of his hands. Not saying it would be overturned, but it was worth the chance to keep their drive going. He had 3 timeouts left, why not risk losing one there? This isn't the first time Caldwell failed to take advantage of a possible opportunity. These types of decisions are what frustrates me with him. Might be time for change.

[emu steve]

I'm not sure I would blame the coaching. Caldwell is real respected. The OC and DC are even more respected.

My problem with the team is the running game. I'm not sure if it isn't the front office which hasn't drafted an impact RB real high or if it is the offensive line OR BOTH.

I believe the problem to be PERSONNEL related and that is NO reason to fire the head coach.

If I were the GM [[I'm not) I might try to trade up to get the Penn State RB, Barkley. Look with what the Cowboys are like with and without Elliot. Put Elliot on the Lions and they go easily to the playoffs.

There are ONLY 3 things which could be wrong with the running game:

1). The offensive line,

2). The running backs,

3). Coaching.

I think the play calling is predictable because the running game is predictably mediocre.

It's almost like need to pass to try to open up the run game, not the other way around.

I saw this easily with the Lions [[and EMU). Both had big problems converting 3rd downs which means the team[[s) couldn't make say two yards running when it needed to and had to revert to passes, etc.

[Cincinnati_Kid]

^^ Points well taken, but those things have been what's ailing this team for a long time now. You would think they would have straightened it out. One thing is for sure, Stafford won't be fired, or traded for that matter. The Head coach always falls on the sword, justified or not.