Metro home sales, prices hit 10-year high - MI unemployment at 4.7%

[Bigdd]

ACTUAL unemployment for Michigan is about 11%.

The various governments [[Federal especially) like to ignore more than half of the unemployed,.. so as to make their numbers look better.

So instead of using U6 as they always had,.. they now use U3, which ignores people who have simply given up looking,.. and ignores people who are only working one 8 hour shift a week at minimum wage,.. and ignores people whose unemployment ran out, etc, etc. [[Yes,.. if you go on unemployment and it runs out,.. and you still haven't found a job,.. they don't count you as unemployed any more).

There's also the ever increasing push to get people to go to college. Even 1/2 wits for whom college won't help. The reason for that is three-fold. They can fill your head full of propaganda,.. they can get you into lots of debt debt [[which makes their banker friends happy),.. and college attendees don't count as unemployed. Wins all around !

Through the first quarter of 2016,.. Michigan had a U3 of 5.2%,.. but the real number [[U6) was 11.2% still. Also,.. the housing market will likely take a big downturn next Summer,.. so I expect that number to go up a bit.

[313WX]

ACTUAL unemployment for Michigan is about 11%.

The various governments [[Federal especially) like to ignore more than half of the unemployed,.. so as to make their numbers look better.

So instead of using U6 as they always had,.. they now use U3, which ignores people who have simply given up looking,.. and ignores people who are only working one 8 hour shift a week at minimum wage,.. and ignores people whose unemployment ran out, etc, etc. [[Yes,.. if you go on unemployment and it runs out,.. and you still haven't found a job,.. they don't count you as unemployed any more).

There's also the ever increasing push to get people to go to college. Even 1/2 wits for whom college won't help. The reason for that is three-fold. They can fill your head full of propaganda,.. they can get you into lots of debt debt [[which makes their banker friends happy),.. and college attendees don't count as unemployed. Wins all around !

Through the first quarter of 2016,.. Michigan had a U3 of 5.2%,.. but the real number [[U6) was 11.2% still. Also,.. the housing market will likely take a big downturn next Summer,.. so I expect that number to go up a bit.

Also buried in another article about the same subject:

http://www.freep.com/story/money/bus...ring/85936640/

The rate edged downward one tenth of a percentage point because of a small decline in the size of Michigan's workforce rather than by adding new jobs. In a separate report, the state's Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives reported that statewide employers shed a net 13,000 jobs in May, led by big declines in manufacturing and the leisure and hospitality services sector.

Also, I should mention not only have I noticed fewer new job postings since the end of 2015, but even my circle within the Auto Industry has noticed work is slowing down. Hopefully the poor sales numbers we've had at the start of this year [[in comparison to 2015) don't mean the boom is over and we're at the start of a downturn, but the signs aren't all that encouraging.

But never mind that, just focus on the sunshine and roses!!!

[401don]

Also buried in another article about the same subject:http://www.freep.com/story/money/bus...ring/85936640/Also, I should mention not only have I noticed fewer new job postings since the end of 2015, but even my circle within the Auto Industry has noticed work is slowing down. Hopefully the poor sales numbers we've had at the start of this year [[in comparison to 2015) don't mean the boom is over and we're at the start of a downturn, but the signs aren't all that encouraging.But never mind that, just focus on the sunshine and roses!!!

Isn't the 84 month loan the definition of shooting yourself in the foot?

[Bham1982]

ACTUAL unemployment for Michigan is about 11%.

The various governments [[Federal especially) like to ignore more than half of the unemployed,.. so as to make their numbers look better.

You expect us to believe you, a random internet dude, over the army of PhDs and their fact-checking auditors at the Department of Labor? LOL.

The unemployment rate is exactly as released. There's no one posting on DYes who has the resources to challenge their findings.

And people actually doing the hiring know that there's a worker shortage. We have tons of open positions, but no qualified candidates. Very tough to get outsiders to come to MI.

[Bigdd]

You expect us to believe you, a random internet dude, over the army of PhDs and their fact-checking auditors at the Department of Labor? LOL.

The unemployment rate is exactly as released. There's no one posting on DYes who has the resources to challenge their findings.

And people actually doing the hiring know that there's a worker shortage. We have tons of open positions, but no qualified candidates. Very tough to get outsiders to come to MI.

The Department of Labor IS WHERE I got the number from. Take a second and look it up.


U3 [[phony Unemployment Rate,.. but declared by the government as "Official") is the same as ACTUAL U6 employment,.. BUT

-MINUS the people who gave up looking [[discouraged workers),..

-MINUS the people who are not working,.. but would like to,.. and have at least looked in the last year [[Persons marginally attached to the labor force),.. and

-MINUS People who are working perhaps one part time shift a week, at minimum wage. [[Persons employed part time for economic reasons).


Pretty much just what I said in my post above.

Here,... I'll save you the 5 seconds it would take to Google their website.
http://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2015/une...nuary-2015.htm


The headline states;
Unemployment rate 5.7 percent in January 2015; U-6 measure was 11.3 percent

That's nationally,.. Michigan is within a tenth of both of those numbers.

[mwilbert]

ACTUAL unemployment for Michigan is about 11%.

The various governments [[Federal especially) like to ignore more than half of the unemployed,.. so as to make their numbers look better.

So instead of using U6 as they always had,.. they now use U3, which ignores people who have simply given up looking,.. and ignores people who are only working one 8 hour shift a week at minimum wage,.. and ignores people whose unemployment ran out, etc, etc. [[Yes,.. if you go on unemployment and it runs out,.. and you still haven't found a job,.. they don't count you as unemployed any more).

There's also the ever increasing push to get people to go to college. Even 1/2 wits for whom college won't help. The reason for that is three-fold. They can fill your head full of propaganda,.. they can get you into lots of debt debt [[which makes their banker friends happy),.. and college attendees don't count as unemployed. Wins all around !

Through the first quarter of 2016,.. Michigan had a U3 of 5.2%,.. but the real number [[U6) was 11.2% still. Also,.. the housing market will likely take a big downturn next Summer,.. so I expect that number to go up a bit.

You are mistaken in saying there has been a change from reporting unemployment based on U3 vs U6. The reported unemployment rate has been the U3 rate for a really long time [[over 100 years, I think) although it wasn't always called the U3 rate. The U6 rate wasn't calculated until 1994, and has never been the reported employment rate. Neither number is more "real" than then other--they are simply different ways of looking at unemployment, and the U6 rate is pretty much always somewhere between 150% and 200% of the U3 rate. You are, of course, entitled to your opinion as to which better represents the state of the labor market, but U6 unemployment now is low relative to its historic levels in Michigan.

And as long as I'm here, I'm curious on what basis you think there will be a housing downturn next summer? I'm not saying it couldn't happen, but I see no sign of this at the moment--housing starts are just starting to strengthen a bit, and interest rates are unlikely to rise much by then.

[Bigdd]

You are mistaken in saying there has been a change from reporting unemployment based on U3 vs U6. The reported unemployment rate has been the U3 rate for a really long time [[over 100 years, I think) although it wasn't always called the U3 rate. The U6 rate wasn't calculated until 1994, and has never been the reported employment rate. Neither number is more "real" than then other--they are simply different ways of looking at unemployment, and the U6 rate is pretty much always somewhere between 150% and 200% of the U3 rate. You are, of course, entitled to your opinion as to which better represents the state of the labor market,........

Yes,. there was no need for U6 before then because they hadn't yet broken out those other groups.

You remove a bunch of groups of unemployed from U3,.. and now you need to create U4, U5 and U6 to get the whole picture.

If you're EXTREMELY dishonest [[like government),.. you continue to use U3 like it's the same U3.

U6 is therefore quite similar to U3 from 80 years ago no ?

Actual unemployment is those that are of employment age and should be working and would even "like" to be working,.. but can't find a job because they lack the education, motivation or job opportunity.

I'm an employer that is looking for office help,.. but they need to show up on time,. be able to read,...and be able to add numbers together etc. And that's REALLY hard to find in Detroit.

The Chase bank next door has gone so far as to install machines that handle all the cash,.. so they can hire tellers that literally can't add, subtract of multiply. NOT KIDDING. The teller yesterday stared at the cash like it was from outer space.. Couldn't figure out what they needed to enter in the computer when they were given four one-hundred dollar bills. The other day a different teller had to get out their Iphone to figure out how much 25, twenty-dollar bills was.

They've given up on finding anyone that can pass a grade-school math test,.. so they're preparing to fully automate like MacDonald's and Wendy's are.

[bust]

Bigdd, you have a point when you discuss whether U-3 or U-6 is a better measure of unemployment. I'd argue that since U-6 includes part-time workers that it's an overestimation, and that U-4 or U-5 is probably the best gauge. But that's debatable.

In any case, the data you're using is a year and a half old, and things have improved a lot since then. I'm not sure why you ignored it, but archfan posted national figures for the full range of un/employed classifications from May 2016:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

National U-3 unemployment stood at 4.5%, U-4 at 4.9%, U-5 at 5.6%, and U-6 at 9.4%.

Here's another interesting set of data from the BLS -- changes in unemplyment rates per city, comparing March 2015 and March 2016:

http://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2016/une...april-2016.htm

Detroit's went from 5.5% to 4.5%, dropping more than 18%. [[Click the "View Chart Data" link to see the specifics.)

Meanwhile, regarding bank tellers, do you have any idea how little banks pay bank tellers?

JP Morgan Chase earned $5.5 Billion in just the first quarter this year.

https://www.jpmorganchase.com/corpor...ss_Release.pdf

The average bank teller wage is $10.87 per hour.

http://www.payscale.com/research/US/...er/Hourly_Rate

What quality of employee do you expect to attract at that wage when you can make at least twice that much mowing lawns?

[Bigdd]

Bigdd, you have a point when you discuss whether U-3 or U-6 is a better measure of unemployment. I'd argue that since U-6 includes part-time workers that it's an overestimation, and that U-4 or U-5 is probably the best gauge. But that's debatable.

In any case, the data you're using is a year and a half old, and things have improved a lot since then. I'm not sure why you ignored it, but archfan posted national figures for the full range of un/employed classifications from May 2016:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

National U-3 unemployment stood at 4.5%, U-4 at 4.9%, U-5 at 5.6%, and U-6 at 9.4%.

Here's another interesting set of data from the BLS -- changes in unemplyment rates per city, comparing March 2015 and March 2016:

http://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2016/une...april-2016.htm

Detroit's went from 5.5% to 4.5%, dropping more than 18%. [[Click the "View Chart Data" link to see the specifics.)

Meanwhile, regarding bank tellers, do you have any idea how little banks pay bank tellers?

JP Morgan Chase earned $5.5 Billion in just the first quarter this year.

https://www.jpmorganchase.com/corpor...ss_Release.pdf

The average bank teller wage is $10.87 per hour.

http://www.payscale.com/research/US/...er/Hourly_Rate

What quality of employee do you expect to attract at that wage when you can make at least twice that much mowing lawns?

My bad on the old link. The data I used in the first post was up to date as of the first quarter of '16. And was a yearly average from the end of the first quarter of '15 to the first quarter of '16. [[Not monthly numbers)

I only spent 10 seconds this time around finding a link for the person I was responding to.

I also agree on it being debatable on which to use,.. 4, 5 or 6. I think it's somewhere between 5 and 6. I think it would be a mistake to TOTALLY ignore those working just 8-16 hours a week because that's all they can find. Perhaps add 1/3 of the extra number from 6 onto 5? Either way,.. there's a lot more than 4 something percent. And Obamacare is pushing the partially employed number up ever higher as companies try to dodge the massive and quickly rising cost of paying for healthcare for full-timers. Companies and cities with unions know this all too well. They were strong-armed into agreeing to pay for healthcare,.. then over the last 20 some years healthcare has risen at more than 8 times inflation,.. and it's crusing large manufacturing and city budgets.

I hear you on the teller pay also. What makes it so hard also is that they can almost make that sitting at home and waiting for a government check. My biggest take-away from that [[and my own hiring experiences) is how poorly prepared most Detroiters are for the working world,.. or for that matter,.. for raising children,. or even just shopping at Kroger. If you can hardly read,..and can't count,... how do you plan to live?