Has Detroit Bottomed out Yet?

[MicrosoftFan]

It seems like everyday on the news you hear that Detroit is turning a new leaf in development but then it's followed up with serial carjackers and then a rundown of everything that's wrong with the city. I'm wondering in terms of population, blight, and out-migration- has Detroit Bottomed out yet? Is Detroit as low as it can go?

[FormerEastsider]

[QUOTE=MicrosoftFan;491658]It seems like everyday on the news you hear that Detroit is turning a new leaf in development but then it's followed up with serial carjackers and then a rundown of everything that's wrong with the city. I'm wondering in terms of population, blight, and out-migration- has Detroit Bottomed out yet? Is Detroit as low as it can go?[/Q

Has Detroit Bottomed Out? What measuring tool would one use to make that determination?

[313WX]

As a whole, no.

I fully expect Detroit to be near or below 500,000 by 2020. Quite a few people who weren't accounted for in the 2010 left during the 2012-2014 bankruptcy/Bing years, and bleeding likely is still continuing with crime remaining high, poorer neighborhood lighting, still abysmal schools and still very few decent paying jobs.

[detroitsgwenivere]

I'm starting to see more people who had moved to Detroit maybe 5 years ago leaving for greener pastures. The ones who have opened a business or have no children tend to stick around, while the ones who struggle with employment or have children leave quicker. Just an observation.

[TTime]

It seems like everyday on the news you hear that Detroit is turning a new leaf in development but then it's followed up with serial carjackers and then a rundown of everything that's wrong with the city. I'm wondering in terms of population, blight, and out-migration- has Detroit Bottomed out yet? Is Detroit as low as it can go?

Anyone who says they know the answer to this question is probably a liar but if I had to guess I'd say the population falls a little more and the neighborhoods stay shitty for at least a few decades. Oh and one thing I know for sure is that people will say Downtown and Midtown are thriving...ha.

[Cincinnati_Kid]

These car-jackings are frightening, day or night. It's sad commentary that you can't stop at a gas station or store without worrying about getting jacked or robbed. You give these hoodlums what they want, and they shoot you anyway.

[rex]

It still a mess but Detroit has started to turn the corner. Homicide is up across the country in many big cities but we appear to be on track to close the year around or beneath last years murder count and sub 300. Now is 300 murders something to be happy about? Absolutely not. Its the only statistic that the police cant sweep under the rug. When murder rates are consistent and every other category of crime goes down year over year i tend to think they're full of shit. Murder rate here is still among the highest in the country but atleast it didn't spike this year like Milwaukee, DC, Baltimore, Chicago, etc. Population will probably continue to slide and the remaining housing stock across the city is in bad shape. Old homes and people without much money will have this result. I would be surprised if Detroit had adequate housing left for a million people. I don't think it does. If the city went thru and inspected every dwelling in town i wonder how many would pass for fit to be lived in. I wonder how many people that would comfortably shelter. In terms of blight no matter how fast they tear shit down it isnt a static number. Next year there will be more blight. We will have torn some down but houses go unoccupied. Scrappers come in, strip the home of metal and fixtures and they are no longer viable or habitable. They may not have been in great shape before the metal came out and it would cost more to fix than it would be worth after restoration.
Do you live in SE michigan or Detroit OP?

[MicrosoftFan]

Do you live in SE michigan or Detroit OP?

SE Michigan, more specifically Grosse Isle.

[mtburb]

Before you know it, Grand Rapids will become the state's largest city by 2020.

[MicrosoftFan]

Before you know it, Grand Rapids will become the state's largest city by 2020.

Or Sterling Heights.

[TTime]

Before you know it, Grand Rapids will become the state's largest city by 2020.

I think the timing of 2020 is a little aggressive but it seems inevitable that GR is on the way to being the largest city in the state population wise sometime in the next 25 years or so. As far as vibrant downtowns go, it's already on par with Detroit or beyond it depending on the event of the day and who you ask.

[casscorridor]

There can be no strong Michigan without a strong Detroit.

This is something Michigan's leaders refuse to accept.

Yes, Greater Detroit was thriving while the City was in decline, but now the whole region is in decline, as is the state, the only state to decrease in population in the last census. There is no reason for the decline to halt as many other regions are much better positioned to absorb new population migrations.

The turn-around program should be forming a strong, centralized Metropolitan government [[Mayor for all of Metro Detroit) with localized governments [[local mayors and councils) remaining and handling localized functions. Taxes should be generated by the entire region for the entire region, with a massive new investment into infrastructure [[chiefly transport) that will jumpstart economic development.

[Crumbled_pavement]

There can be no strong Michigan without a strong Detroit.

Absolutely true. Bye bye strong Michigan. It was great while it lasted.

[ParisianLesion]

Before you know it, Grand Rapids will become the state's largest city by 2020.

Ha. I remember people saying this 20 years ago. Despite perceptions, Grand Rapids proper population has remained pretty much the same - around 190k for the past 25 years. I grew up over there and still spend plenty of time there. You can still drive 10-15 minutes and you're in corn fields. No, there is not more activity in downtown GR than in Detroit, especially not anymore. If you believe that then you don't spend much time in downtown/Midtown/Corktown/etc. Detroit lately. I'm a city kid and even though GR is a beautiful, somewhat thriving city, it's not hard to get bored there. And good luck meeting a women unless you're young 20s and looking to get married lol. I'll take Detroit - which will remain the largest city in Michigan for the balance of our lifetimes and probably much longer - every time.

[TTime]

Ha. I remember people saying this 20 years ago. Despite perceptions, Grand Rapids proper population has remained pretty much the same - around 190k for the past 25 years. I grew up over there and still spend plenty of time there. You can still drive 10-15 minutes and you're in corn fields. No, there is not more activity in downtown GR than in Detroit, especially not anymore. If you believe that then you don't spend much time in downtown/Midtown/Corktown/etc. Detroit lately. I'm a city kid and even though GR is a beautiful, somewhat thriving city, it's not hard to get bored there. And good luck meeting a women unless you're young 20s and looking to get married lol. I'll take Detroit - which will remain the largest city in Michigan for the balance of our lifetimes and probably much longer - every time.

I currently spend a lot of time in both downtowns and I'll ha your ha and simply disagree for a few reasons. When one is looking for a downtown experience, what does it matter if you're in corn fields 15 mins away or some suburb? For my money, having access to a pretty country drive that close to downtown rather than being stuck in some suburban traffic is a great thing. As far as downtowns go, GR stands right with Detroit for activity and may surpass it. Also you forgot to mention that when you are 1 minute outside of the areas you noted in Detroit you are in abandoned neighborhoods....quite a different story in GR as the neighborhoods are still intact. One last thing, one town is growing and the other has taken a massive population hit so if you see those people who have been saying GR will surpass Detroit in population you can tip your hat to their prediction because it's getting closer and closer to becoming reality.

[Gpwrangler]

I currently spend a lot of time in both downtowns and I'll ha your ha and simply disagree for a few reasons. When one is looking for a downtown experience, what does it matter if you're in corn fields 15 mins away or some suburb? For my money, having access to a pretty country drive that close to downtown rather than being stuck in some suburban traffic is a great thing. As far as downtowns go, GR stands right with Detroit for activity and may surpass it. Also you forgot to mention that when you are 1 minute outside of the areas you noted in Detroit you are in abandoned neighborhoods....quite a different story in GR as the neighborhoods are still intact. One last thing, one town is growing and the other has taken a massive population hit so if you see those people who have been saying GR will surpass Detroit in population you can tip your hat to their prediction because it's getting closer and closer to becoming reality.

I don't know where you guys are driving but if I leave Detroit and drive 20 minutes I can be in Grosse Pointe or in the middle of a cornfield in Romulus. And Grand Rapids traffic sucks as much as here.

[TTime]

I don't know where you guys are driving but if I leave Detroit and drive 20 minutes I can be in Grosse Pointe or in the middle of a cornfield in Romulus. And Grand Rapids traffic sucks as much as here.

Aahhhh yes those beautiful cornfields of Romulus...yeah I guess I haven't experienced traffic in GR that compares to Metro Detroit yet but I'll take your word for it. I wouldn't call Grosse Pointe a country drive but Lakeshore is obviously a pretty relaxing escape to be sure.

[313WX]

I don't know where you guys are driving but if I leave Detroit and drive 20 minutes I can be in Grosse Pointe or in the middle of a cornfield in Romulus. And Grand Rapids traffic sucks as much as here.

When I think of the country, I think of a place that isn't filled with McMansions / Ranch Homes, Strip Malls nor places that are always clogged with traffic during 9-5 business hours.

Romulus certainly doesn't fit the above bill.

[Gistok]

I currently spend a lot of time in both downtowns and I'll ha your ha and simply disagree for a few reasons. When one is looking for a downtown experience, what does it matter if you're in corn fields 15 mins away or some suburb? For my money, having access to a pretty country drive that close to downtown rather than being stuck in some suburban traffic is a great thing. As far as downtowns go, GR stands right with Detroit for activity and may surpass it. Also you forgot to mention that when you are 1 minute outside of the areas you noted in Detroit you are in abandoned neighborhoods....quite a different story in GR as the neighborhoods are still intact. One last thing, one town is growing and the other has taken a massive population hit so if you see those people who have been saying GR will surpass Detroit in population you can tip your hat to their prediction because it's getting closer and closer to becoming reality.

Your anecdotes are kind of meaningless... when in just 2013 Grand Rapids grew by 1,333 residents. So unless there's a sudden influx, it will take many many decades for Grand Rapids to surpass Detroit.

Maybe real statistics will give you a better picture as to the true growth rate of Grand Rapids....
http://www.biggestuscities.com/city/...apids-michigan

[TTime]

Your anecdotes are kind of meaningless... when in just 2013 Grand Rapids grew by 1,333 residents. So unless there's a sudden influx, it will take many many decades for Grand Rapids to surpass Detroit.

Maybe real statistics will give you a better picture as to the true growth rate of Grand Rapids....
http://www.biggestuscities.com/city/...apids-michigan

First of all my experiences aren't meaningless just because they are different than yours and check my previous comments because I said if it happens it will be a few decades away. Since you are into numbers why don't you lay historical population charts for both towns on top of each other and get back to me with your thoughts.

[Dbest]

Your anecdotes are kind of meaningless... when in just 2013 Grand Rapids grew by 1,333 residents. So unless there's a sudden influx, it will take many many decades for Grand Rapids to surpass Detroit.

Maybe real statistics will give you a better picture as to the true growth rate of Grand Rapids....
http://www.biggestuscities.com/city/...apids-michigan

Hard to argue that their metro area isn't on a roll though.

The Grand Rapids metropolitan area had the ninth fastest growing economy in the U.S. last year and the 69th fastest growing economy among the 300 largest metropolitan areas in the world, according to a study released Thursday, Jan. 22, by the Brookings Institution.

[ParisianLesion]

I currently spend a lot of time in both downtowns and I'll ha your ha and simply disagree for a few reasons. When one is looking for a downtown experience, what does it matter if you're in corn fields 15 mins away or some suburb? For my money, having access to a pretty country drive that close to downtown rather than being stuck in some suburban traffic is a great thing. As far as downtowns go, GR stands right with Detroit for activity and may surpass it. Also you forgot to mention that when you are 1 minute outside of the areas you noted in Detroit you are in abandoned neighborhoods....quite a different story in GR as the neighborhoods are still intact. One last thing, one town is growing and the other has taken a massive population hit so if you see those people who have been saying GR will surpass Detroit in population you can tip your hat to their prediction because it's getting closer and closer to becoming reality.

I'm not going to argue over what amenities might be available in Detroit vs. GR [[and certainly I recognize that I may have "started it" lol). Obviously this is pointless as it is a matter of opinion. Both areas have wonderful offerings, as well as shortcomings. To each his own.

However, my original intent was to refute the exaggerated claim that GR would surpass Detroit in population potentially as soon as "2025." This isn't a hard idea to disclaim. Using the 2010 census as a source:

City: 2000 | 2010 | % Change
Detroit: 951,270 | 713,777 | -25.0
Grand Rapids: 197,800 | 188,040 | -4.9

Now, Detroit bled population in the last several decades. We all know this. That's one metric for determining [[some would say THE metric) whether the city has "bottomed out." However, GR has not exactly been a boom town. In 2010, the population was 188k. In 1990? 190k. Point being it has hovered around that number with minor hills and valleys for several decades now. Even if Detroit were to continue to decline 25% each decade, which of course is astronomically unlikely, it would take almost another 5 decades for Detroit's population to dip below GR.

For the most current trends - and most relevant to the OP topic at hand - Detroit's population decline from 2010 - 2013 has been trending at -9% [[latest US Census Bureau statistics). There has been a lot of conversation lately about the population decline slowing and this being a sign of us "nearing the bottom" where we can start to stabilize and perhaps even increase the population again. If the 2010-2013 rate were to continue, it would put Detroit's population in 2020 around 643k. At that rate, Detroit's population would fall below that of the next largest city in about 120 years.

As to the merits of each, to 313WX's point, this is comparing apples to oranges. Out-state Michigan cities do not have the sprawling metro areas that Detroit does. They sort of "stand alone" with masses of farm land between them. Almost 50%of Michigan's population is within Detroit Metro. GR? 1%. Of Michigan's 20 largest cities [[using the 2010 census again), 15 are in Metro Detroit. In downtown Detroit on any given day there are more people due to sports events, concerts, the riverfront, casinos, bars, restaurants, DSO, Opera House, DIA, etc. etc. etc. - that can pull from this large suburban community - than during even the largest of events in GR, such as ArtPrize, or any other city in the state.

The point here being, let's not exaggerate things or make irrelevant doomsday style generalities. Have we "bottomed out?" Yes and no. This is too simple of a question for a very complex situation.

[313WX]

Ha. I remember people saying this 20 years ago. Despite perceptions, Grand Rapids proper population has remained pretty much the same - around 190k for the past 25 years. I grew up over there and still spend plenty of time there. You can still drive 10-15 minutes and you're in corn fields. No, there is not more activity in downtown GR than in Detroit, especially not anymore. If you believe that then you don't spend much time in downtown/Midtown/Corktown/etc. Detroit lately. I'm a city kid and even though GR is a beautiful, somewhat thriving city, it's not hard to get bored there. And good luck meeting a women unless you're young 20s and looking to get married lol. I'll take Detroit - which will remain the largest city in Michigan for the balance of our lifetimes and probably much longer - every time.

Agreed.

For all intents and purposes, Grand Rapids is still a small/irrelevant town to most folks outside of Michigan. It lacks the big city/urban infrastructure Detroit has, it has no theater district [[aside from a ballet company), no major international airport and no major league sports teams. In fact, the only things people only somewhat associate with Grand Rapids are Amway [[a company known for marketing scams) and Meijer.

It's more of an equivalent to Peoria, IL.

As someone stated before, with the American-based Auto Companies' market share now less than 50% and those same American Auto Companies now re-investing the vast majority of their capital outside of Michigan / America, and also with the lack of a healthy & functional major city, Michigan's best days are behind it as a progressive, vibrant, cosmopolitan place to live.

[Cincinnati_Kid]

Before you know it, Grand Rapids will become the state's largest city by 2020.

I'm sorry, I just don't see GR overtaking the throne, of being Michigan's largest city. Detroit could dip as low as 500,000 people and still be the largest population and area wise.

[Johnnny5]

Downtown and a few select neighborhoods have already been at the bottom and are on their way to something better. The majority of the city is still going downhill, just not as fast as it was a few years ago.

One issue that probably wont be as big of a deal in the immediate future is scrapping. The price of scrap metals has fallen off a cliff in the last year. Even for those scumbags that were stealing it, there's probably still not enough money in it to bother with steel and aluminum. Copper still has some value so that may continue, but the draw for brazen thefts of the past few years is gone.