What will Detroit look like in 20 years?

[jimmyr]

They kidnapped and murdered her in Detroit because DPD doesn't solve crimes. People forgot about the story after about a month. When you are a violent crime victim in Detroit you do not matter. Nobody cares, SE Michigan is numb to the pathology. Really inviting place to live.

[corktownyuppie]

They kidnapped and murdered her in Detroit because DPD doesn't solve crimes.

Do you know if she was kidnapped in Detroit? Or even murdered in Detroit? Boy, it sounds like you're doing a hell of a lot better job than DPD. Because the only thing we know is that the body was dumped in Detroit. Guess what...a man from the gilded suburb of Grosse Pointe Park had his wife killed....not in Detroit, but in GPP, and then dumped the body here in Detroit.

So should I feel less safe in Detroit? Or should I feel less safe in Grosse Pointe? Should I join the Amish and move to Pennsylvania?

Nobody cares, SE Michigan is numb to the pathology. Really inviting place to live.

Well, one point I'll give you is that SE Michigan is overly de-sensitized to violence. I don't think there's any question about that. And if -- for you -- that doesn't make it a very inviting place to live, then I have no argument with that.

But to say that it doesn't make it an inviting place for everyone else to live? I think that's a bit premature.

In Chicago a few weeks ago, 36 people were shot in a 36 hour period. Chicago. City of. The city that steals 40% of our college graduates every year. Why would they ever move to a city that's so desensitized to violence?

Because we've come to the point where we start asking, "Am I any less safe because of this?" And in many cases, the people who die in violent ways are usually people who are associating with violent people.

So as soon as it became known that this woman -- from Waterford, by the way -- had several personal protection orders from men-- multiple men -- in her past, most of us [[rightly or wrongly) jumped to the conclusion that this is a case of domestic abuse. And, no, I'm not in any way saying that domestic abuse is acceptable. But I am saying that it's existence doesn't make me fear for my safety because I'm not in any relationships with violent people.

Same with the 36 people shot in Chicago. You think my friends practicing law in Chicago and living in Wrigleyville are worried about anything? No. The 36 people were all shot because they were involved in gang rivalries and conflicts. That doesn't make it ok, but it doesn't really bolster your argument that the existence of that violence is a detractor to people living there.

[sumas]

I'm sorry to hear that, but I'm glad that you've found a way beyond it. There are many victims of sexual assault around us, we just don't realize it. I've found out that several people close to me are victims of sexual crimes and I was shocked to come to the realization that it's not just something you hear about on the news or watch on Law and Order, it's real and effects many folks around us.

My friends and I used to casually joke around about "rape". Not in a sense to literally make fun of rape victims, but to use the word to describe something being taken from someone against their will. I can tell you that now that I'm older, wiser, married, and have a daughter that I regret my use of the word when I was younger. There's nothing funny about it.

Nope nothing funny about it, assaults against women are quite common everywhere, even in the military. It is indeed life altering. Protect your daughter as best you are able.

Detroiters are not enduring crime. My community united when we had several home invasions. With info provided by community the fuckers were caught. Detroit Police officers are some of the finest in the country but when people are afraid to report things their hands are tied.

[sumas]

I still stay optimistic. Our future is our children. Granted many are challenged with home environments but there is huge truth to it takes a village to raise a child. My village invests in our kids. So many people do so much and I do believe in miracles.

Detroit is already as contracted as it is going to get. We will have to wait and see a bit how our new mayor supports areas out of downtown.

[EASTSIDE CAT 67-83]

When I ask myself this question, my first thought is to turn back the clock 20 years, Coleman was on the last year of his dynasty, carjackings were on the rise, my old neighborhood was not yet referred to as an Urban Prairie and if you had asked me this same question then I would of had a pretty positive answer saying that maybe we had already seen our worst days of decline... But I would have obviously been VERY wrong. Many have posted some positive predictions others lean towards the fact that there are still many homes that will fall into disrepair, burn and await its turn for the bulldozer. Somehow you need to entice families that put down roots back into the city but the opposite is what is and has been happening. You need to build on urban prairie but who is willing to make that investment. We need to entice new industry/technology production to our urban prairie not plant large scale farms, small local gardens on a few vacant lots will feed the remaining residents. I think if Detroit used its waterfront the way a city like Baltimore does [[think inner harbor and its surrounding environs) you would see incredible growth that would spawn from the river out. Urban hipsters in their late 20s early 30s will not make a city great, they will make it cool&hip and bring suburban dollars into the city but as soon as baby makes three 90% of them will split for the burbs. IMHO 20 years is just a spit of time in the lifecycle of a large city...but my best guess [[based on past performance) is we will see increased acreage of urban parade as more homes/buildings attrite, continued loss of population of 50k or more, continued growth and revitalization in midtown and maybe on the waterfront but I just don't see the city finding itself growing/prospering in just 20 short years.

[hortonz]

I think the Detroit of the future will look more like the city that existed before Henry Ford built his first automobile, with dense, fine-grained neighborhoods served by locally-owned and operated businesses, improved mass transit and human-scaled architecture. Freeways will become obsolete as fewer people are able to afford the cost of driving, the large big-box stores will close down one by one as disposable income contracts and fewer and fewer people can afford to shop there and classical architecture will come back with a vengeance as the era of mass-produced architecture comes to an end and traditional building materials make a comeback.

[Hermod]

I think the Detroit of the future will look more like the city that existed before Henry Ford built his first automobile, with dense, fine-grained neighborhoods served by locally-owned and operated businesses, improved mass transit and human-scaled architecture. Freeways will become obsolete as fewer people are able to afford the cost of driving, the large big-box stores will close down one by one as disposable income contracts and fewer and fewer people can afford to shop there and classical architecture will come back with a vengeance as the era of mass-produced architecture comes to an end and traditional building materials make a comeback.

What are you smoking?

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[ghettopalmetto]

By what measure would you say that STL and Cleveland are healthier than Detroit? I don't get the sense that either city is a thriving metropolis. In fact, from the outsider perspective, cities like STL and Cleveland are usually grouped in with Detroit in a class of struggling urban areas. I doubt Detroit is losing potential residents to Cleveland in the way that it might be losing potential residents to Chicago.

I'm not sure what Detroit will look like in 20 years. A lot could swing in any direction, depending upon the priorities [[or lack thereof) established by City leadership. If the order of the day continues to be petty bickering, outsized egos, and enormous subsidies for risky new "developments", then I see a continued decline, with small pockets of "organically" redeveloped areas.

I will say, however, that I'm ever so gracious for the pessimism toward Cleveland on this thread. All of the disparaging remarks will scare away the DBs who tend to inflate real estate prices, and keep things nice and affordable as the North Coast continues to blossom. ;-)

[sumas]

I am just not into gloom and doom. In my little village, high end housing, mid range housing and low income housing have been built. There are several rehabs going on.

My neighbors are investing into their homes and some of the private rehabs are astounding. We have invested heavily into our home. Both of our adult sons live in the city with good jobs. One owns, one rents in midtown.

My particular block is half urban prairie but residents mow and maintain it. Frankly I enjoy the rural feel. We do clean ups often. Our area kids are respectful and helpful. Area adults invest in our kids in a big way. We even feed the pheasants. They like corn.

I can walk my neighborhood safely, know all the neighbors for blocks.Policing is good, EMS fantastic, firefighters the bravest.

Certainly I see the blight but I have great hopes.

[hortonz]

Okay maybe my idea of what the Detroit of the future will look might be far-fetched, but let me ask a question? What do you think the future will look like if we don't change how we live and work? Low-density, sprawling communities connected by highways might have been a good idea when energy was cheap and we could afford to turn valuable farmland into tract houses, big-box stores and fast-food joints, but what do you think will happen in a future where the availability of cheap, reliable energy gives way to unreliable, expensive energy and climate change turns productive agricultural land into desert? Think it can't happen? It's happened before and the results have always been a disaster,

[hortonz]

If Detroit is a thriving city in twenty years it will look more like city that existed before it became the Motor City and less like the city that was the Motor City.

[aj3647]

many areas will become green space and the population will definitely still be around 700,000 after dipping to a point in the 680,000s.

SEMCOG estimates in 2013 put the city's population at just a hair over 680,000. You think it's going to go up in the next two decades? Why?

My guess for the population in 20 years is ~570,000.

[animatedmartian]

SEMCOG estimates in 2013 put the city's population at just a hair over 680,000. You think it's going to go up in the next two decades? Why?

My guess for the population in 20 years is ~570,000.

Job growth.

Despite the loss in manufacturing over the decades, Metro Detroit is still a hub for technology and engineering. As long as the city's problem are kept under reasonable control like any other city, it will be attractive to urban dwellers and as a central location for businesses as well as international trade.

The only real forces going against population growth is the aging population and, of course, if the national economy stumbles again. Other than that, it's just a matter of having more in-migration than out-migration. Detroit came pretty close in the 90s to have y-o-y population growth so I don't believe it's too hard of a goal to reach.

[compn]

detroit in the future will look like detroit now, detroit 20 years ago, detroit 40 years ago.