What will Detroit look like in 20 years?

[iheartthed]

^^^I tend to agree with this.

No way Detroit remains above 500,000 people.

Based on what? The economics don't really make sense for another 500,000 people to move away from the city unless we're talking unforeseen economic issues in the suburbs that causes much of the housing out there to be worthless. Also, if Detroit goes to 200,000 then expect it to enter bankruptcy several more times...

[EASTSIDE CAT 67-83]

trashy humor...tee hee hee

[iheartthed]

Jimmyr, I too often think Detroit is shooting itself in the foot charging such high real estate prices in the city center and nearby areas. But as someone stated earlier, It's very simple... it is supply and demand. However, my argument about supply and demand is how long will there be a demand when people are already being priced out this early in the recovery? Eventually people will look at other cities that are more affordable or cities that can offer more. Such as Cleveland, St. Louis, Pittsburgh etc...

One thing that I always point out about Chicago is back in the 80's when Downtown Chicago looked like Downtown Detroit, the price of real estate remained dirt cheap for decades. The thing is, back then, Cities were the last place anyone wanted to live in those days. It took Chicago several decades for the downtown population to build for young creative types and professionals. When Chicago began it's downtown growth, condos were selling between $19,000-$39,000 in the gold Coast. It stayed like this for years! This is why the Loop is so heavily populated today, because Chicago's downtown was dirt cheap for so long. Prices didn't start out at $350K and it wasn't all about the granite, amenities offered etc. It had a very solid base. If they had been trying to charge top dollar prices back then, people would have said "screw that!" And moved to greener pastures. That's my fear for Detroit.

A couple of beginner chefs teamed up with some old timers that had old warehouses and they brought in new restaurants, bars, nightclubs etc. But keep in mind AGAIN, city living wasn't trendy back then. So prices still remained low. But cities are different now and so are the people wanting to live in them. Prices are purposely being driven up and it's because the new NIMBY's want cities to look a different way. Not saying I feel one way or the other...If ANY city was to do this stuff right now, prices would sky-rocket because of the greedy developers/banks. In turn, forcing people to look else where to live. This is why I think Detroit is slow to grow and I fear this "might" cause a bubble in Detroit's city center. The prices are already scaring people away. I asked my college age nephews and nieces and their friends if they'd like to live downtown Detroit and they said yes, but it's too expensive. So they'll continue living in Ann Arbor and elsewhere. Already, Detroit has already priced out young successful people.

Detroit is notorious for always missing the boom at the right time.

Detroit is quite a long way from being so expensive as to price people out to other cities. Whenever it does get to that point it will be a good thing for Detroit.

[EASTSIDE CAT 67-83]

Basically:

trashy humor...tee hee hee

[stasu1213]

I think that's pretty accurate. We're moving toward a "drive-to-walk" society. For example, I don't mind driving 15 minutes to Royal Oak. But once I'm parked there, I'd like to walk from place to place. Same with Ann Arbor or Birmingham. Detroit will be similar, with solid neighborhoods surrounded by greenspace.

313WX also put it succinctly....a mix of Atlanta, Portland, and Delta City

Also the alleyways will be used as pedestrian walkways bustling with activites such as art fairs and festivals. Intact older neighborhoods such as the Gratiot Vandyke to Gratoit McClellan areas will be restored such as Corktown was

[Lowell]

Have to disagree with you there. Downtown Grand Rapids has cultivated a great city vibe; high rises, clean, safe, two great hotels, terrific restaurants, bars, entertainment, concerts, universities. Grand Rapids will probably grow to over 200k soon. It doing a hell of a lot better at drawing in college grads than Detroit proper.

Meh... GR is a nice place making nice moves but it's sports, art museum and other assets are still minor league. Forget casinos. Believe it or not those things count for a lot of people. It doesn't have the big city skyscraper canyon feel of a Detroit or even Cleveland. It's population has been stagnant since 1990. They do have largest zombie parade and the Meijer Sculpture Garden and art prize are nice efforts.

[313WX]

Meh... GR is a nice place making nice moves but it's sports, art museum and other assets are still minor league. Forget casinos. Believe it or not those things count for a lot of people. It doesn't have the big city skyscraper canyon feel of a Detroit or even Cleveland. It's population has been stagnant since 1990. They do have largest zombie parade and the Meijer Sculpture Garden and art prize are nice efforts.

Not to mention GR is in the heart of the bible belt with a population that's the furthest thing from diverse and progressive [[something people also associate with big cities).

[313WX]

Based on what? The economics don't really make sense for another 500,000 people to move away from the city unless we're talking unforeseen economic issues in the suburbs that causes much of the housing out there to be worthless. Also, if Detroit goes to 200,000 then expect it to enter bankruptcy several more times...

1. People can migrate out of the state, not necessarily to the suburbs. I know personally a tons of people who have migrated either to Chicago or back down south over the past few years. There's nothing left for them here as their neighborhoods have been destroyed and the jobs they came here for are gone.

2. Look at St. Louis and Cleveland for example. I would argue they're both way healthier than Detroit by comparison [[with problems not nearly as severe as Detroit's) and the population for both cities continue to decline at a similar rate to Detroit's.

3. As far as bankruptcy several times, I wouldn't rule it out. It's called shrinking pains [[see the draconian plans to privatize/regionalize every municipal service but Police/Fire/Tax Collection, return vast swaths of abandoned land to nature, reduce the number of streetlights on the grid in half, etc.) and given what Detroit's sheer size was relative to how fast it's declining, it will be the first city in modern history to experience such a thing in such a severe magnitude.

4. I'm not necessarily saying that Detroit will actually hit 200,000 people, but it's foolish for anyone to think that Detroit's population decline is anywhere close to stabilizing. As long as the culture that encouraged the beating of that innocent man at Morang and Balfour continues to exists in such huge proportions, you're going to continue seeing good, taxpaying citizens who wants to live in a healthy environment leave. Never mind the fact that many well-paying jobs aren't being created to attract people from other parts of the country and city services will continue to remain sub-par compared to most other cities and the neighboring suburbs due to the lack of resources.

[illwill]

Detroit is quite a long way from being so expensive as to price people out to other cities. Whenever it does get to that point it will be a good thing for Detroit.

I'm referring to the downtown & near downtown areas. I guess I'm saying prices can only go so much higher in comparison to what the area offers.

As/if growth continues [[which is more than likely) then I think there is lots of room for real estate price increases.

What the area needs...?

- Lower crime
- Lots of retail
- Several more grocery stores
- More day-to-day common neighborhood businesses [[eye doc, dentist, dry cleaners etc...

I'm still perplexed as to why name brand Retail has yet to come into the city [[primarily downtown)?

[iheartthed]

2. Look at St. Louis and Cleveland for example. I would argue they're both way healthier than Detroit by comparison [[with problems not nearly as severe as Detroit's) and the population for both cities continue to decline at a similar rate to Detroit's.

By what measure would you say that STL and Cleveland are healthier than Detroit? I don't get the sense that either city is a thriving metropolis. In fact, from the outsider perspective, cities like STL and Cleveland are usually grouped in with Detroit in a class of struggling urban areas. I doubt Detroit is losing potential residents to Cleveland in the way that it might be losing potential residents to Chicago.

[animatedmartian]

I'm still perplexed as to why name brand Retail has yet to come into the city [[primarily downtown)?

Not enough residential population.

Many of the retail stores opening now downtown are capitalizing on daytime office workers and stadium attendees. However, for stores like Target and such, there's needs to be a higher permanent residential population than what currently exists in and around downtown.

[iheartthed]

I'm referring to the downtown & near downtown areas. I guess I'm saying prices can only go so much higher in comparison to what the area offers.

As/if growth continues [[which is more than likely) then I think there is lots of room for real estate price increases.

What the area needs...?

- Lower crime
- Lots of retail
- Several more grocery stores
- More day-to-day common neighborhood businesses [[eye doc, dentist, dry cleaners etc...

I'm still perplexed as to why name brand Retail has yet to come into the city [[primarily downtown)?

But if Detroit can demonstrate that it can sustain high rents downtown then that will lead to developers adding new properties in the close-by areas. Detroit is a long way from saturating itself to the point with the entire city has become prohibitively expensive like what's happening in places like Manhattan and San Francisco. Even Chicago has quite a way to go before it reaches that point, if it ever does...

[313WX]

By what measure would you say that STL and Cleveland are healthier than Detroit?

1. St. Louis and Cleveland aren't bankrupt [[in fact, that should be enough of a measure).

2. The unemployment rate in Detroit is 17.7%, while the unemployment rate is 9.3% in Cleveland and 9.9% in St. Louis respectfully.

3. Their suburbs don't seem to harbor a hate for their central city. In fact, their central cities are still the economic centers of their regions. For example, when people fly to a business trip in Cleveland or St. Louis, they're literally flying to a business trip in St Louis or Cleveland, not Southfield, Dearborn or Troy like here in Detroit.

4. The population is still reasonably diverse in St. Louis and Cleveland. Cleveland is 53.3% black, 10% Hispanic and 37.3% white, while it's 49.2% black and 43.9% white in St. Louis.

5. None of their elected officials have become international nor YouTube stars for their corruption nor their incompetence.

Cleveland and St. Louis may be pretty bad off, but as it was jokingly stated in a Cleveland tourism parody video on YouTube, "at least we're not Detroit!!!"

[illwill]

animatedmartian,


I think that's a decades old excuse. I don't have any stats to back up my argument but I'm pretty sure Detroit has more residents per capita than many other small cities and mid-size towns that are fortunate enough to have plenty of name brand retail. Heck, we're by far the largest city in the the state of Michigan.

I also chalked it up that maybe it comes down to income per capita? But there's a lot of Money Downtown Detroit and throughout the city.

We should at least have a Sears, JC Penny, Payless Shoes or something along those lines. If we cannot support ONE JC Penny, then we're in really bad shap and I'll concur with other posters who say it'll be 20 years before we start to resemble a vibrant downtown. But once again, I don't believe population is the real issue here.

[sumas]

Kind of interesting thread, There is a lot more money here then people think and I am not talking drug money. The population is way larger than got accounted for too. It's Detroit, an entity onto itself.Very unique! I wish I could explain better, my only focus these days is my home and area kids. The other stuff isn't by business

[Scottathew]

This is how I see things a decade or two out:

Crime is drastically reduced. Homocides are no longer in triple digits. Police response times are measured in minutes.

The dying neighborhoods are fully dead, but the neighborhoods that kept their density survive and thrive. New growth starts happening on the edges of thriving neighborhoods as they expand.

Detroit becomes more diverse. Poverty within the black community starts to improve. Affordable, well-established private schools service thriving neighborhoods as an alternative to DPS for working professionals.

M1 Rail is extended up into the suburbs and land near the line grows greatly in value as more folks want to use mass transit to commute to their downtown jobs.

Downtown continues to grow and Woodward becomes ground zero for business. Anything within 1-2 blocks of Woodward is developed into housing, with signs of life continuing to grow outward.


I know my vision is a little overly-optimistic, but I do think it is a possible outcome.

[jimmyr]

Sorry to say, but more of the same. The people that ruined the city are still very much in control. The past few months we've had:

-11,000 rape kits ignored
-Utash beating
-Tiane WSU homicide
-French artist body found
-FBI investigating council bribery, and Cushing's DUI, weed
-MEAP scores lower than ever before
-Bankruptcy
-Water drama
-City unemployment fraud catches 50 [[everyone knows that's tip of the iceberg)
-Light drama

Gotta be honest, very hard for me to be optimistic.

[animatedmartian]

animatedmartian,


I think that's a decades old excuse. I don't have any stats to back up my argument but I'm pretty sure Detroit has more residents per capita than many other small cities and mid-size towns that are fortunate enough to have plenty of name brand retail. Heck, we're by far the largest city in the the state of Michigan.

I also chalked it up that maybe it comes down to income per capita? But there's a lot of Money Downtown Detroit and throughout the city.

We should at least have a Sears, JC Penny, Payless Shoes or something along those lines. If we cannot support ONE JC Penny, then we're in really bad shap and I'll concur with other posters who say it'll be 20 years before we start to resemble a vibrant downtown. But once again, I don't believe population is the real issue here.

I mean within the 3 mile radius of downtown. It does also have do with median income levels.

According to http://www.detroitsevenpointtwo.com/, there's about 30,000-40,000 people who live in the greater downtown area [[7 square miles) based on the 2010 census [[so much new development isn't reflected in this). The median income is around $20,000 with 51% making $0-$20,000 annually.

By comparison, Center City, Philadelphia is only 2 square miles and has roughly 60,000 residents. The median income is just under $60,000. Only 30% make below $35,000 a year.

http://www.centercityphila.org/docs/...aphics2011.pdf
http://www.centercityphila.org/docs/CCR13_retail.pdf


Compared to even smaller cities, Detroit still lags behind because the population is spread out and not really concentrated near downtown. There's more people that live in the outer neighborhoods than live anywhere within a 3-5 mile radius of Campus Martius. Detroit could have 1 million people, but if none of them live downtown then you're not going to have a vibrant downtown. Houston is probably a good example of this.

[corktownyuppie]

Sorry to say, but more of the same. The people that ruined the city are still very much in control. The past few months we've had:

-11,000 rape kits ignored
-Utash beating
-McBride WSU homicide
-French artist body found
-FBI investigating council bribery, and Cushing's DUI, weed
-MEAP scores lower than ever before
-Bankrupcy
-Water drama
-City unemployment fraud catches 50
-Light drama

Gotta be honest, very hard for me to be optimistic.

I don't have a problem with the stance that things will get worse than better. That said, I'm having a hard time following your logic.

The people that ruined the city are still very much in control.

Who's in control? The city is run by an emergency manager who as appointed by a republican governor. How can you say the Mayor was a part of the people who ruined the city? He hasn't even lived in the city in 20+ years. When the bankruptcy is over, all budgets will be approved by state-appointed advisory board who will have final say over the pocketbook. Not sure what you mean here.

McBride WSU homicide

First, I think you're talking about Tiane Brown? The WSU law student who was found dead at the Packard Plant? She wasn't from Detroit, she was from Waterford. And her killing wasn't random, it was likely one of the several people on whom she had a personal protection order. The only thing related to Detroit is that her body was dumped there.

Jane Bashara's body was dumped in Detroit, too. She was from Grosse Pointe, and her Grosse Pointe husband hired someone to kill her. Is that a "canary in the coal mine" signalling that Detroit can never be a functional city?

And since you mentioned McBride, I should ask...were you talking about Renisha McBride? She was killed in Dearborn Heights. Not sure what that could mean about Detroit, either.

-Bankrupcy [sic]

Bankruptcy isn't bad for Detroit. It's good for Detroit. In fact, it is quite possibly the best thing to happen to Detroit in 30 years. Maybe even 50 years. It means we can finally undo the tangled nonsense of dysfunction that has been impossible to remove because of politics and laws designed for a different era. We've accomplished more in the last 9 months of bankruptcy than we have in 2 decades.

-City unemployment fraud catches 50

You think that's a bad sign for the city? Some of us are singing Hallelujah. We've always known these deadbeats have been ruining the city services, and now someone's finally clearing out the crap. You're calling this bad news for Detroit?

-Water drama

Not sure how this is bad for Detroit, either. Whether it's through a tri-county consortium or through a private operator, this take control of day-to-day management AWAY from Detroit and AWAY from the people who caused the problems in the past. You argue that it's just going to be "more of the same" but everything about this points to it being out of the city's control.


I'm far from convinced that we're going to get through this well, and even if we do, it's going to take a bruising process to get there. But if you're argument is that you see "Detroit" and then "some bad thing happening" in the same headline, then the argument doesn't really hold up to logic.

Detroit has real problems. Serious problems. If you want to argue that Detroit isn't going to make it, then focus on the problems, understand the problems, learn what's causing the problem, and then formulate an opinion about whether you think the solution is or isn't going to change things.

You can't be angry that Detroit is running the Water Department into the ground and then simultaneously blame Detroit when they've given up control.

You can't say that Detroit needs more cops and then argue that the bankruptcy is bad news...when the purpose of the bankruptcy is to free up $1-$2 Billion in money to hire more police.

How can you argue that Detroit is being run by the same people who caused the problems and in the same sentence say that it's bad news when the bankruptcy forces the city to answer to outsiders about how they spend their money..

I'm not saying you need to be optimistic. I'm just not understanding how you arrive at your conclusion given the things you're listing.

[jimmyr]

Yes I meant Tiane Brown. Your casual dismissal of a girl kidnapped at WSU, murdered and remains unsolved speaks volume to how numb Detroit has made you. Very sad.

Municipal workforce is still dominated by all of the players who looted the city. The council is a laughing stock. Orr will be gone in less than a year and it will be dysfunctional business as usual.

I'm not going to address each of your rebuttals. Your glasses are far too rosy to have a measured debate. You casually dismissed things 99% of the US population would never subject themselves to.

[sumas]

I stay optimistic. The 11,000 rape kits not processed are centuries old. Not embarrassed to say i am probably in that list, at age 19 I was abducted and assaulted. True the cops did almost nothing. That was 41 years ago, I got past that. I worry about our current youth. No one needs that baggage.

Our police are way better now!

[Scottathew]

Yes I meant Tiane Brown. Your casual dismissal of a girl kidnapped at WSU, murdered and remains unsolved speaks volume to how numb Detroit has made you. Very sad.

I didn't see it as casual dismissal of murder, but rather dismissal of blame for Detroit. His point was that it's a terrible crime that happened to a non-Detroit resident, the perp was probably from the 'burbs where the woman lived [[as she had PPOs out on people), the murder might not have taken place in Detroit, and that the only bad thing Detroit-wise in her murder is that her body was dumped in Detroit in hopes to have a less effective law enforcement agency on the case.

[Scottathew]

I stay optimistic. The 11,000 rape kits not processed are centuries old. Not embarrassed to say i am probably in that list, at age 19 I was abducted and assaulted. True the cops did almost nothing. That was 41 years ago, I got past that. I worry about our current youth. No one needs that baggage.

I'm sorry to hear that, but I'm glad that you've found a way beyond it. There are many victims of sexual assault around us, we just don't realize it. I've found out that several people close to me are victims of sexual crimes and I was shocked to come to the realization that it's not just something you hear about on the news or watch on Law and Order, it's real and effects many folks around us.

My friends and I used to casually joke around about "rape". Not in a sense to literally make fun of rape victims, but to use the word to describe something being taken from someone against their will. I can tell you that now that I'm older, wiser, married, and have a daughter that I regret my use of the word when I was younger. There's nothing funny about it.

[corktownyuppie]

I'm not going to address each of your rebuttals.

Don't worry. I didn't actually think you were up for the challenge anyway. But if you change your mind, my only request is that you do so with the logic.

[corktownyuppie]

Yes I meant Tiane Brown. Your casual dismissal of a girl kidnapped at WSU

Just out of curiosity, where did you read that she was kidnapped at WSU? All of the stories I read simply stated that she was a WSU student. Or are you confusing the two?