Crime is down for Q1 2014

**cman710** · April-08-14, 09:10 AM

Everyone's points are well taken. We should not get too excited yet. Nonetheless, I think this marks a significant step in the right direction. While the winter undoubtedly contributed to this improvement, I think there is some real underlying progress.

Police Chief Craig's goal is a 10% reduction in crime this year. Crime will still be way, way too high if he achieves that goal, but it would be a great step in the right direction. We shall see.

**Crumbled_pavement** · April-08-14, 09:25 AM

Originally Posted by cman710

Nonetheless, I think this marks a significant step in the right direction.

Significant? When I see Becky jogging up and down 7 Mile at 6am then I'll think crime has come down significantly.

**Spartan** · April-08-14, 09:35 AM

Originally Posted by Crumbled_pavement

Significant? When I see Becky jogging up and down 7 Mile at 6am then I'll think crime has come down significantly.

What world do you live in that 25% is not significant? No one said Detroit suddenly a safe city...

**Wesley Mouch** · April-08-14, 10:06 AM

Originally Posted by Spartan

What world do you live in that 25% is not significant? No one said Detroit suddenly a safe city...

Statistics prove that short-term statistics mean little to nothing, unless you're a corporate CEO in which case upward statistics mean everything. Downward stats mean nothing.

**Spartan** · April-08-14, 10:48 AM

Originally Posted by Wesley Mouch

Statistics prove that short-term statistics mean little to nothing, unless you're a corporate CEO in which case upward statistics mean everything. Downward stats mean nothing.

I'm not a statistician, but even with a small sample size, I find it hard to believe 25% is not a significant number. What is the minimum sample size that would make these statistics significant? If we go a whole year down 10%, is that significant? What is the time frame to appropriately judge crime trend?

**cman710** · April-08-14, 10:20 AM

Originally Posted by Spartan

What world do you live in that 25% is not significant? No one said Detroit suddenly a safe city...

Exactly. Realistically, it will take 10 years for a sea change to occur, even if crime went down significantly every year. That does not mean that a 10-25% decrease is not significant. There is only so much crime can go down at once.