The End of Detroit... [Plan to widen I-94, I-75]

[ghettopalmetto]

Atlanta is car hell. I75 through Atlanta has grown from 2 or 3 lanes to more like 7 or more lanes each direction. Atlanta grew. Their roads grew. Like their car culture or not, they have been a growing successful city.

Back in the early 1980s, some geniuses in Atlanta predicted a doubling of the regional population. So they invested billions in expansion of the freeway system, adding more lane-miles than any other metropolitan area [["Freeing the Freeways", it was called).

I don't know if I'd call 1+ hour commutes "successful". That region is pretty screwed if Cobb and Gwinnett Counties keep developing unabated.

This is from a speech that Brookings Institute senior fellow Chris Leinberger gave in Atlanta last year. Mr. Leinberger, by the way, is a real estate developer.

“You have the same number of jobs and the same real capita income as you did in 1998,” Leinberger said. “It’s not a lost decade; it’s a lost 15 years.”

Home prices in metro Atlanta have declined by 29 percent in the last decade, and only three zip codes had gained in value — Grant Park, Virginia-Highlands and East Lake.

Brookings has been keeping score. It ranks metro performance of the 200 largest cities in the world. In the 1990s, Atlanta was in the top 25 percent. In the 2000s, Atlanta was ranked 89 out of the 200 largest cities. And today, that rank has dropped to 189.
So why is Atlanta losing ground?

The major reason, as Leinberger sees it, is that the region quit investing in transportation — particularly public transit. Unlike Washington, D.C. and San Francisco [[two cities that started building a rail system at the same time as Atlanta), Atlanta has barely expanded its MARTA system and it has not leveraged the economic development potential of developing around its transit stations.

This should sound familiar:

Atlanta needs to create a city where the workers and decision-makers of today’s “knowledge economy” and tomorrow’s “experience economy” want to be, Leinberger said. And those places are “walkable urban” spaces rather than “drivable suburban” spaces.

“That’s why Atlanta has flat-lined,” Leinberger said. It only has five “walkable urban” neighborhoods while Washington, D.C. has more than 40.

And since we keep hearing how Detroit wants to attract visitors, in particular to downtown:

“Now tourism is the biggest industry on the planet."

About a third of all travelers go explore the wilderness. The remaining 70 percent travel to experience cities, not suburbs. “They are not going to be going through a drive through,” Leinberger said.

http://saportareport.com/blog/2012/04/chris-leinberger-tells-rotary-how-atlanta-can-become-hot-again/#sthash.Zx1CTVhV.dpuf

[Bham1982]

That Brookings Institute dude is on crack. Atlanta has had some of the most robust job, population, and economic growth numbers in the U.S. since 1998.

http://www.bls.gov/ro4/cesatl.pdf

And Atlanta is currently experiencing very strong jobs growth.

[Bham1982]

Back in the early 1980s, some geniuses in Atlanta predicted a doubling of the regional population.

And they were actually very modest in their predictions. Try more than doubled-

Atlanta MSA:
1970: 1,840,280
1975: 2,116,700
1980: 2,326,551
1985: 2,677,192
1990: 3,068,975
1995: 3,630,747
2000: 4,247,981
2005: 4,247,981
2009: 5,475,213

[ghettopalmetto]

That Brookings Institute dude is on crack. Atlanta has had some of the most robust job, population, and economic growth numbers in the U.S. since 1998.

http://www.bls.gov/ro4/cesatl.pdf

And Atlanta is currently experiencing very strong jobs growth.

Yes, if you can get to your job on time. Personally, you couldn't pay me enough to relocate there. If you enjoy living in your car, eating dinner after 8, and getting up by 5:00 every day, I'm sure it's worth a look.

Maybe you can find some numbers that quantify Happiness. Because all I ever hear from my Atlanta clients is how horrible the traffic is.

[Wesley Mouch]

Yes, if you can get to your job on time. Personally, you couldn't pay me enough to relocate there. If you enjoy living in your car, eating dinner after 8, and getting up by 5:00 every day, I'm sure it's worth a look.

Maybe you can find some numbers that quantify Happiness. Because all I ever hear from my Atlanta clients is how horrible the traffic is.

I don't want to live there either -- but apparently enough people to fill their congested, but ever-expanding freeways do.

[[On what crack was that Brookings Institution guy on? Atlanta stagnant? He says no job growth for 15 years. In that time their population went up by 2,000,000. If there were no job growth, there's be 1 in 3 unemployed.

But as to home prices, he was right -- last summer. Since then, average median prices have increased from around 90k to about 170k. Nearly double.)

[rb336]

Not if the product sucks. Econ 102.

I think we, as a culture, have proven that there is an infinite demand for crap

[Gistok]

American comedian Rich Hall once stated... "good things come to those who wait... but crap shows up right away!"

[Sharnelle]

American comedian Rich Hall once stated... "good things come to those who wait... but crap shows up right away!"

Thanks for this - a very useful quote.

[Honky Tonk]

Not if the product sucks. Econ 102.

Sorry but, BS John. The product could suck like a Shop-Vac, but if the consumer is convinced it'll enrich their otherwise boring and mediocre life, well, sign me up. Why the hell would anyone spend $25 on a "hot dog cooker"?

[Gannon]

Sorry but, BS John. The product could suck like a Shop-Vac, but if the consumer is convinced it'll enrich their otherwise boring and mediocre life, well, sign me up. Why the hell would anyone spend $25 on a "hot dog cooker"?

Then we are infinitely lucky they decided to put a price tag on the damn thing instead of giving it away! We'd be buried in 'em.

[rb336]

Sorry but, BS John. The product could suck like a Shop-Vac, but if the consumer is convinced it'll enrich their otherwise boring and mediocre life, well, sign me up. Why the hell would anyone spend $25 on a "hot dog cooker"?

We got one of those cookers that had metal prongs that essentially electrocuted the dogs. Occasionally, one would explode.

[iheartthed]

RB, you and the anti-freeway brigade pull out 'induced demand' as an argument against freeway improvements. You are 100% right that adding lanes induces demand.

But when congestion returns, four [[4) congested lanes have 33% more capacity than three [[3) congested lanes.

That's the goal. Throughput. Not congestion removal.

Demand is what you want. Thus, induced demand is exactly what you want. People who want to be in Detroit. More of them.

Sorry to destroy this argument, but holding up induced demand as a bad thing is induced ignorance of the goals of highways.

You're not understanding what induced demand means. It refers to the particular roadway, not the city overall. You induce the demand on that particular piece of roadway by increasing the capacity of it. However, in an area with declining or stagnant population, you will also suck traffic from another resource.

Look at it this way. Mid-20th century Grand River from northwest Detroit through downtown Detroit carried far more traffic than it does today. Constructing I-96 induced demand for I-96 and sucked all of the traffic that would otherwise be on Grand River. And when they go to make the decisions for the usefulness of I-96 it is not taken into account that Grand River is virtually empty 95% of the day.

[Honky Tonk]

We got one of those cookers that had metal prongs that essentially electrocuted the dogs. Occasionally, one would explode.

I guess I just don't see or understand a real need for one. You can throw a dog in a pan and cook it on the stove top. My point is, if the product commercial is played enough times, people will try the grapefruit diet, or frost cakes with a paper knife.

[mwilbert]

And they were actually very modest in their predictions. Try more than doubled-

Atlanta MSA:
1970: 1,840,280
1975: 2,116,700
1980: 2,326,551
1985: 2,677,192
1990: 3,068,975
1995: 3,630,747
2000: 4,247,981
2005: 4,247,981
2009: 5,475,213

The boundaries of the Atlanta MSA have grown substantially over this period, which makes the data more ambiguous than it might be.

[ghettopalmetto]

The boundaries of the Atlanta MSA have grown substantially over this period, which makes the data more ambiguous than it might be.

The Census used to count 5 counties as part of the Atlanta MSA [[1950). Because of the obscene sprawl, they now count 22 counties--an area the size of Massachusetts--as part of the area.

[Gannon]

Yuck, this will only fuel some of the pro-gonzoroad's arguements, they see that as progress...growth. Too bad quality of life isn't evaluated precisely enough to enter into the equation.

I've spent time in Atlanta, mostly on the north side...but thankfully also on the SE and SW side in areas a little more off the beaten path. The whole area suffers from lockdown during rush hours, but nothing is worse than the north side...hwy400 into the loop is a huge bad joke. I just wanted to make clear that Atlanta cannot be used as a positive standard.

The expensive houses I went into were all on tiny, tiny lots on winding and hilly subdivision streets, everyone stacked neatly in non-rows. One guy had some land, but it was down a steep hill. He could use it one-way.

So yeah, the 22-county megapolis...ain't a future I wanna see repeated here.

[ghettopalmetto]

Yuck, this will only fuel some of the pro-gonzoroad's arguements, they see that as progress...growth. Too bad quality of life isn't evaluated precisely enough to enter into the equation.

So yeah, the 22-county megapolis...ain't a future I wanna see repeated here.

The reality is that a widened I-94 will likely go just as underutilized as the current configuration for most of the day. Traffic will move a bit faster during rush hour in the short term, but I'd expect rush hour congestion to develop in the long-term. In effect, it'll be $2.7 billion spent to achieve the status quo, but with higher long-term maintenance costs and irreparable damage to the neighborhoods on either side.

In the case of I-75, there's no reason to think there will be any congestion relief. Even Corradino's study projected a travel time savings of one minute along the entire length of the project. Expect those lanes to fill quickly, especially as the widened freeway encourages a reboot of the Oakland County Sprawl Machine.

[Bham1982]

The reality is that a widened I-94 will likely go just as underutilized as the current configuration for most of the day. Traffic will move a bit faster during rush hour in the short term, but I'd expect rush hour congestion to develop in the long-term. In effect, it'll be $2.7 billion spent to achieve the status quo, but with higher long-term maintenance costs and irreparable damage to the neighborhoods on either side.

In the case of I-75, there's no reason to think there will be any congestion relief. Even Corradino's study projected a travel time savings of one minute along the entire length of the project. Expect those lanes to fill quickly, especially as the widened freeway encourages a reboot of the Oakland County Sprawl Machine.

If you keep repeating nonsense, it doesn't make it true.

I-94 is overutilzed, not underutilized. Same with I-75. Adding lanes will add capacity and mobility.

And there is no potential "sprawl machine". The improvements are only planned in older, built out areas with generally stable or declining population. If you don't make these improvements, places like Detroit are the long-term losers, because you are limiting access to the region's core from some of the wealthiest areas.

[ghettopalmetto]

I-94 is overutilzed, not underutilized. Same with I-75. Adding lanes will add capacity and mobility.

Overutilized? For what--all of 10 hours a week? Yeah, that's worth $2.7 billion.

You still never answered what you mean by "mobility", yet you keep using that word. Never mind that "mobility" isn't used by anyone who isn't a plug-and-chug roadway engineer. So are you hiding something, or do you just glom onto ambiguous buzzwords for the fun of it?

And there is no potential "sprawl machine". The improvements are only planned in older, built out areas with generally stable or declining population. If you don't make these improvements, places like Detroit are the long-term losers, because you are limiting access to the region's core from some of the wealthiest areas.

You just keep believing what you want to believe, kiddo. Maybe we can build an eight-lane expressway along the Detroit River so that all those Grosse Pointers will be able to find downtown too. I mean, that can only cost a paltry $3 or $4 billion, right?

[Wesley Mouch]

Overutilized? For what--all of 10 hours a week? Yeah, that's worth $2.7 billion.

You still never answered what you mean by "mobility", yet you keep using that word. Never mind that "mobility" isn't used by anyone who isn't a plug-and-chug roadway engineer. So are you hiding something, or do you just glom onto ambiguous buzzwords for the fun of it?



You just keep believing what you want to believe, kiddo. Maybe we can build an eight-lane expressway along the Detroit River so that all those Grosse Pointers will be able to find downtown too. I mean, that can only cost a paltry $3 or $4 billion, right?

gp, I really don't like urban freeways. I would remove 1/2 of them in my world. But if you have them, they should good. 94 needs work. Maybe what MDOT's doing isn't perfect, but I'm glad they're doin it.

[DTWflyer]

The wildcard in all of this is that both sections of highway, I-94 and I-75 are at or near the end of their functional life and at the point where the bridges and road surface are due for major reconstruction.

There is a looming cost of reconstructing the roadway and bridges as-is, or they could incorporate the lane additions at the time when the are faced with major reconstruction.

The only section I don't understand is I-75 from 14 Mile to M-59, generally through Troy. This roadway never backs-up due to congestion. The only back-ups are southbound I-75 leading into the I-696/I-75 and the I-75/8 Mile interchanges. Granted, I-75 through Troy is probably the easiest to widen since it is at grade and they have ample right-of-way plus the median. They do have the replace most of the bridges on this section anyways within the next 10-15 years.

[Wesley Mouch]

...The only section I don't understand is I-75 from 14 Mile to M-59, generally through Troy. This roadway never backs-up due to congestion. The only back-ups are southbound I-75 leading into the I-696/I-75 and the I-75/8 Mile interchanges. Granted, I-75 through Troy is probably the easiest to widen since it is at grade and they have ample right-of-way plus the median. They do have the replace most of the bridges on this section anyways within the next 10-15 years.

My guess is that parts of the roadway offend MDOT and DOT's standards. That curve at Big Beaver feels sharp. That alone may be enough to have triggered the need for improvement. And once they have a reason, they have a way to SPEND!

I agree it doesn't seem to backup nearly as much as S of 14 mile where the need is more obvious.

[Gistok]

The wildcard in all of this is that both sections of highway, I-94 and I-75 are at or near the end of their functional life and at the point where the bridges and road surface are due for major reconstruction.

Actually the bridges of I-94 between I-96 and Conner Ave. badly need to be replaced. ALL of the bridges east of Conner have been replaced [[far out into the eastern burbs), and the Van Dyck bridge was in such poor condition that a few years back it had part of its' roadbed replaced, only to require a total replacement more recently [[with a wider bridge for the future expansion in mind). From what I gather here... the Gratiot bridge is the next due for replacement. [[Wasn't the Woodward bridge also already replaced, ready for a wider roadway?)

So even though the replacement of the freeway itself has been postponed for 6 years... work has actually already begun... and the bridge replacements will likely continue... perhaps with them all finished [[except interchange work) before the expansion start date.

[ghettopalmetto]

The wildcard in all of this is that both sections of highway, I-94 and I-75 are at or near the end of their functional life and at the point where the bridges and road surface are due for major reconstruction.

There is a looming cost of reconstructing the roadway and bridges as-is, or they could incorporate the lane additions at the time when the are faced with major reconstruction.

No one is arguing that the bridges and roadway surfaces need work. No one is arguing that, perhaps, a couple interchanges should be reconfigured for safety reasons.

It *is* a problem, though, that MDOT is using this maintenance work as an excuse to create unneeded pavement, which takes taxable land off the rolls, and creates higher long-term maintenance costs. The MDOT models once projected an increase of 14% in Vehicle Miles Traveled [[VMT). VMT has actually *decreased* by over 10% since those models were made. So where's the justification???

This is just a single-minded agency that knows how to do one thing, and one thing only. MDOT honestly believes it can build its way out of any roadway congestion--just like engineers expected I-75 to permanently solve all of Detroit's congestion when it was constructed. Sadly, it's an expensive trick that the rest of the world gave up long ago.

[Bham1982]

Sadly, it's an expensive trick that the rest of the world gave up long ago.

Can you cite one place on earth where highways are no longer expanded?

I know of no major metro area where there is some blanket policy to forego capacity expansions on roadways. Certainly none of the major cities in the U.S. have such a policy.