Detroit's Population [[now and the future)

[nain rouge]

Not too long ago the census released some estimates and said that over the last 2 year period Detroit had lost 0.4% of its population. Or something like that, I forget the numbers. But it was a trivial loss.

The census estimates are always way off. If I remember correctly, the census was projecting a population of about 850,000 in Detroit right up to when the official 2010 count came in. About all the census estimates can do is give you a reasonable estimation of whether the population is going up or down.

Judging by current trends, I see Detroit's remaining historic neighborhoods being revitalized while almost all post-streetcar neighborhoods in the city are left to rot [[outside of a few outliers). Detroit's outer neighborhoods can't compete with the city's urban core or the newer neighboring suburbs, but are stuck instead in a no man's land.

[Detroitnerd]

I see Detroit's remaining historic neighborhoods being revitalized while almost all post-streetcar neighborhoods in the city are left to rot [[outside of a few outliers).

Astute. I like it.

[Hermod]

The census estimates are always way off. If I remember correctly, the census was projecting a population of about 850,000 in Detroit right up to when the official 2010 count came in.

Also known as "whistling past the graveyard" on the part of the city boosters while all the evidence pointed to the true census results.

[mwilbert]

Also known as "whistling past the graveyard" on the part of the city boosters while all the evidence pointed to the true census results.

It wasn't just city boosters; there were estimates all over the place--the estimate from the Census ACS was quite high, maybe 850,000. Many people, including you as I recall, did not believe it, and of course they were correct not to. But the actual Census estimate in 2009 was still about 750,000.

[313WX]

It wasn't just city boosters; there were estimates all over the place--the estimate from the Census ACS was quite high, maybe 850,000. Many people, including you as I recall, did not believe it, and of course they were correct not to. But the actual Census estimate in 2009 was still about 750,000.

And the same thing will be the case in 2020. People will PREDICT Detroit's population is only around 650,000, when it reality it has fallen to around/below 500,000.

[Crumbled_pavement]

And the same thing will be the case in 2020. People will PREDICT Detroit's population is only around 650,000, when it reality it has fallen to around/below 500,000.

All one has to do is drive around the vast majority of neighborhoods in Detroit. There are miles and miles and miles, and I'm speaking literally, of wasteland and burnt out houses. Not every neighborhood. There are plenty of intact neighborhoods. Still there are also plenty of whole neighborhoods that are gone. Not a house, not a block, whole NEIGHBORHOODS. No way this can pass for stabilization. Places in Detroit that I know were vibrant just 7 - 8 years ago are wastelands now. I don't see what changes to slow the bleeding. If anything, all I've seen in the last few years are things that should increase the bleeding. Bing was a dismal failure. The last City Council was a dismal failure. The city is filing bankruptcy, no one knows what will really be the result of that, but that will take YEARS to sort through either way. Meanwhile, city services are still poor, crime is still high, enrollment in DPS is tumbling like an old woman falling down stairs. It just doesn't look pretty, not at all.

[313WX]

[QUOTE=Crumbled_pavement;397322]All one has to do is drive around the vast majority of neighborhoods in Detroit.

All one has to do is drive around the vast majority of neighborhoods in Detroit. There are miles and miles and miles, and I'm speaking literally, of wasteland and burnt out houses. Not every neighborhood. There are plenty of intact neighborhoods. Still there are also plenty of whole neighborhoods that are gone. Not a house, not a block, whole NEIGHBORHOODS. No way this can pass for stabilization. Places in Detroit that I know were vibrant just 7 - 8 years ago are wastelands now. I don't see what changes to slow the bleeding. If anything, all I've seen in the last few years are things that should increase the bleeding. Bing was a dismal failure. The last City Council was a dismal failure. The city is filing bankruptcy, no one knows what will really be the result of that, but that will take YEARS to sort through either way. Meanwhile, city services are still poor, crime is still high, enrollment in DPS is tumbling like an old woman falling down stairs. It just doesn't look pretty, not at all.

WE pretty much see eye to eye on this.

People keep bragging about what's happening downtown, but the fact of the matter is not only did downtown still lose population as of the last census, but the growth is so painstakingly slow that it's going to take forever before it posts numbers to even offset the decline in the neighborhoods.

Unlike what's happened in other cities in the past few decades, Detroit is trying to grow its downtown in the midst of the worst recession in modern history [[thus the economy most certainly isn't growing by leaps and bounds to create the number of jobs that would attract people to the city and the capital for private development certainly isn't flowing freely) while the city's in bankruptcy court and the city government is completely dysfunctional. There's no way we're going to see Chicago loop-like growth, or even downtown Seattle/Pittsburgh-like growth if that's what anyone's expecting any time soon.

[Crumbled_pavement]

WE pretty much see eye to eye on this.

Absolutely. I was just expounding on some of your observations. It just stuns me to see how Detroit continues to do all the wrong things in the face of breathtaking population losses. Up until Orr, many on the Council were still acting and behaving as if Detroit were still a city of over a million residents. Just stunningly crazy.......