About Detroit's future.

[beachboy]

I'm curious what you folks see in the reasonably near future for Detroit. What does Detroit need? Realistically.What is probably going to happen and what will the effects be. No easy solutions

Perhaps we could consider Detroit's strength that has, historically, been heavy-industrial manufacturing... What current trends could affect industrial growth?

Trend 1 - Industrial Employment Decline: Until offshoring began in earnest approx. 15 years ago, most US industrial job losses were due to robotization [[a.k.a. automation or mechanization). Technology marches on ... robotization and offshoring, excessive regulation and [[on the horizon) higher taxes will further affect US industry, with probable employment decreases [[unless rising energy and labor costs offshore favor a return of industry to the US).



Trend 2 - Demographic Decline: The "Boomer bulge" is moving thru the python, so to speak. As the US population ages, consider the consumption trends that fueled industrial prosperity over the past 40 years of Boomeria. Bigger homes, more cars, more clothes, more vacations, more, more ... much of that in decline, now, as Boomeria ages. Alas, Boomers haven't saved as well as Mom & Dad. So the consumption patterns will not favor "more". This will impact industrial employment .. downward.



Trend 3 - Wage Decline: Real wages have decreased significantly as a portion of GDP:


This means that people have less to spend as a portion of the national product. Less disposable income = less consumption = less industrial production = less industrial employment. Where is the prosperity?

Trend 4 - Worldwide Deflation: Due in large part to industrial overcapacity, and due in part to de-leveraging of government debt, deflation continues to drive a downward price-wage spiral. This means lower prices <=> lower wages, and consequently reduced prosperity. See the preceding paragraph for the effect.



Can we ask a few questions related to growth of wealth?

Q1: In the presence of the above-listed trends, how can Detroit grow its industrial base and dependent manufacturing sectors [[e.g., parts suppliers, maintenance, etc.)? Without a strong, growing industrial base where will Detroit's much-needed growth of wealth come from? If there is no growth in wealth, where will the tax monies come from to refurbish and enhance Detroit's infrastructure?

Q2: If the underlying stability of manufacturing industries is not present, what will Detroit use to generate the wealth needed to support refurbishment of a decaying infrastructure? Without a sound infrastructure, what is the long-term prospect for industrial [[or other business) growth?

Q3: What about the cultural influences on crime? If Detroit remains a dangerous place to live, how many more wealth-generating people will want to live here? Where will population growth come from? And how much money will these immigrants have?

Just some thoughts and questions late Sunday nite [[early Monday a.m.)

What are your thoughts?

[mwilbert]

I expect recent trends to continue. There will be more redevelopment of the Woodward Corridor between the river and New Center, and more people living there. At some point that population will reach critical mass and you will start to see more businesses catering to that population.

Some other enclaves may do well--for instance the activity in the Palmer Park apartment district is very encouraging.

Most of the rest of the city will continue to deteriorate. The DPS will continue to become less important as fewer people in the city have children and fewer of them use the public schools.

What needs to happen is that the city administration becomes more effective; it would be especially useful if Detroit could figure out how to run a police department, but as of now that doesn't look like something we can expect.

[Gistok]

5. FARMS, FARMS, FARMS! The areas around neighborhoods like East English Village should be turned into hotbeds for experimental agriculture. Poor Detroiters could work on these farms for minimum wage [[any talks of unions would be grounds for firing), their deteriorating homes sitting on the rich, mildly toxic farmland like old shacks on the Mississippi Delta. Families from affluent families could pay to pick vegetables with their children, or take tours to see how the other half lives.

OK... you could NOT have picked a worse scenario to choose the farming idea for... the area around EEV, namely the 48224 Zip Code was one of the last intact middle class areas of Detroit left that didn't have a lot of abandonment. If that area goes down the tubes then there is truly NO HOPE left for middle class neighborhoods in Detroit.... Morningside to the west of EEV is slowly being hacked to pieces by scrappers and abandonment of some wonderful housing stock of large middle class homes. The Cornerstone Village area between EEV and the Grosse Pointes is also under assault with large scale home foreclosures and renters replacing homeowners. I doubt that EEV could survive like Indian Village... with just a few streets of nice homes surrounded by abandonment. Unlike Indian Village, the housing stock in EEV is little different than that in the nearby areas of Morningside.

If this area goes down then Detroit's population will continue to loose a lot more residents, with very little of the middle class left at all...

[nain rouge]

. Morningside to the west of EEV is slowly being hacked to pieces by scrappers and abandonment of some wonderful housing stock of large middle class homes. The Cornerstone Village area between EEV and the Grosse Pointes is also under assault with large scale home foreclosures and renters replacing homeowners.

Exactly my point! Those neighborhoods are doomed. We've seen such patterns play out all across the city, and right now it's tough to see how conditions will get any better. The city, after all, has yet to even face bankruptcy, which seems an all but certain outcome right now.

East English Village has a shot, though. Even if the surrounding neighborhoods are somewhat similar to it, East English Village has the kind of name recognition that could get it through. It's funny, though, that Morningside has much better homes than most of the suburbs, and yet it's struggling. Have a Detroit address makes everything a lot harder.

[DetroitPlanner]

Nain, nearly all of the development that has happened in the core neighborhoods has happened as a result of government subsidies or tax breaks. It really cheesed me off when I realized that my tax bill for my home in Warrendale was five times higher for someone living in a house that was three times as expensive in the core. It is places like EEV that pays the taxes so the core can get the breaks.

Can't you see EEV as an extension of the Grosse Pointe area? It is hardly doomed because of geography.

[Eber Brock Ward]

Planner, are you sure that that's the norm.

Out of curiosity one time, I paid the $2 or whatever and pulled up the BSA tax info for the home I spent my formative years in, on Brace between Whitlock and Paul. Tax bill was under $2,000, and I want to say around $1,800.

The tax bill on my present house in Woodbridge, after the NEZ break is applied, is around $1,500.

I know we're both using anecdotal evidence, but I think your 5x tax bill situation was either an anomaly or maybe you have your numbers mixed up.

[royce]

Exactly my point! Those neighborhoods are doomed. We've seen such patterns play out all across the city, and right now it's tough to see how conditions will get any better. The city, after all, has yet to even face bankruptcy, which seems an all but certain outcome right now.

East English Village has a shot, though. Even if the surrounding neighborhoods are somewhat similar to it, [/COLOR]East English Village has the kind of name recognition that could get it through. It's funny, though, that Morningside has much better homes than most of the suburbs, and yet it's struggling. Have a Detroit address makes everything a lot harder.

What is exactly the borders for East English Village?

[DetroitPlanner]

Planner, are you sure that that's the norm.

Out of curiosity one time, I paid the $2 or whatever and pulled up the BSA tax info for the home I spent my formative years in, on Brace between Whitlock and Paul. Tax bill was under $2,000, and I want to say around $1,800.

The tax bill on my present house in Woodbridge, after the NEZ break is applied, is around $1,500.

I know we're both using anecdotal evidence, but I think your 5x tax bill situation was either an anomaly or maybe you have your numbers mixed up.

What would your bill be without the NEZ? Not all of Warendale gets this, I bought on the wrong side of the freeway [[East).

[Honky Tonk]

IMO, The game plan seems to be take the tax money and feed Mid-Town. After a while, the surrounding areas will get tired of continually paying for no services, and move out. Bingo, instant downsizing.

[313WX]

IMO, The game plan seems to be take the tax money and feed Mid-Town. After a while, the surrounding areas will get tired of continually paying for no services, and move out. Bingo, instant downsizing.

That much is correct.

There's no way on God's green earth that Midtown/Downtown will be repopulated at a fast enough pace to spread out and save the areas that continue to decline. I just wish that talking point would disappear.

Same with the talking point that an EM would help Detroit, when in reality it's just an feeble attempt to protect Brooksie's and the state's bond rating when the inevitable happens.

[313WX]

What is exactly the borders for East English Village?

Harper, Mack, Outer Drive/Whittier and Cadieux.

Depending on how you look at it, even EEV has shown signs of decline in the last 10 years.

[poobert]

Harper, Mack, Outer Drive/Whittier and Cadieux.

Depending on how you look at it, even EEV has shown signs of decline in the last 10 years.

Things got pretty shaky with first the drop of residency and then the foreclosure crisis but enough people held their ground and enough good new folks moved in that it feels like we're finally on the rebound. People like the housing stock and the sense of community, as well as being a Detroiter, very plainly. We just had a couple nice families move in from SCS paying 70k for their homes here. I bought after the bubble but I'm glad I did. It's a nice place to live.

[mwilbert]

There's no way on God's green earth that Midtown/Downtown will be repopulated at a fast enough pace to spread out and save the areas that continue to decline. I just wish that talking point would disappear.

This is true. I can't say I've heard a lot of people make that claim though. It might help some of the immediately adjacent areas like Brush Park or Virginia Park, but in any case you are talking about a small fraction of the city.

Same with the talking point that an EM would help Detroit, when in reality it's just an feeble attempt to protect Brooksie's and the state's bond rating when the inevitable happens.

Don't agree with this one. An EM could help, both because Detroit's existing management is hopeless, and because of the power he or she would have to change existing arrangements. I think bankruptcy would be preferable, but it is unpredictable, and, of course, not really possible under Michigan law without either an EM or cooperation from the state. And I think the effect of a bankruptcy on the bond ratings of other municipalities has been vastly overstated, although you may be right that the fear exists.