Watching the whole EFM / Consent Agreement dance has led me to the opinion that Lansing, meaning the Governor and legislature, is afraid of taking over Detroit. They could easily point to the numbers and take over the city. But I believe they are dearly praying that they can succeed in twisting enough arms to obtain a consent agreement that will leave the hamstrung governance of Detroit under local control.

Why?

Taking over Detroit will rouse a fierce opposition from a very sizeable population whose activation will energize it into a large voter turn-out in what is shaping up to be a very close election year.

Taking over Detroit means that their EMF, and by extension them, will be stuck with the impossible task of running a city with the insurmountable costs of caring for a huge proportion of the state’s indigent citizenry. Lansing will then face the dilemma of cutting services to levels that could cause rebellion and irreparable breakdown or finally admitting that they need to provide funds, which could cause rebellion within their ruling party.

Leaving Detroit under crippled local management will give them the appearance that ‘they did something’ and when that fails they will be again able to point their finger and shake their heads at Detroit and whine, “We tried, they failed”.

While the governor is playing brinksmanship by issuing ultimatums and deadlines, it is the consent commission who should be doing so. They should call his bluff. Think of it like the Iraq war. The country was easily taken over but occupying it turned out to be a whole different proposition.

That’s my opinion. What do you think?