A Positive Story [Detroit Pushes Back With Young Muscles - NY Times]

[maxx]

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/03/fa...R_AP_LO_MST_FB

"...Recent census figures show that Detroit’s overall population shrank by 25 percent in the last 10 years. But another figure tells a different and more intriguing story: During the same time period, downtown Detroit experienced a 59 percent increase in the number of college-educated residents under the age of 35, nearly 30 percent more than two-thirds of the nation’s 51 largest cities. .."

[mwilbert]

"30 percent more than two-thirds of the nation's 51 largest cities" -- talk about a contrived statistic.

And of course you are starting from teeny base.

With those disclaimers, there isn't any doubt that that downtown is becoming a residential area for a relatively affluent, younger demographic.

[gthomas]

Demand is clearly there...why beg to differ?

[313WX]

Is this the greater dowtown area or downtown proper?

And you gotta love how one can spin statistics in their favor. Only 6,000 people live in downtown proper. 3,500-4,000 college graduates in the city center of a major city is hardly impressive.

[hamtown mike]

And you gotta love how one can spin statistics in their favor. Only 6,000 people live in downtown proper. 3,500-4,000 college graduates in the city center of a major city is hardly impressive.

That's scary. But even more frightening the statistics said a 59% increase in college educated. So if you had 2 college educated people living in the city, a 59% increase would mean that you now have 3 college educated people living in the city. [[not a simple 59% of the people are college educated)

Numbers can say anything you want them to.

[BrushStart]

That's scary. But even more frightening the statistics said a 59% increase in college educated. So if you had 2 college educated people living in the city, a 59% increase would mean that you now have 3 college educated people living in the city. [[not a simple 59% of the people are college educated)

Numbers can say anything you want them to.

Well, my girlfriend and I both live downtown and we each have doctorates, so who is that third college-educated person now? [[*sarcasm*)

In reality, there are between 350-500 people in my building alone, of which I'd guess 60%+ have at bachelors degrees or higher. So, there's probably around 200 college educated people on my block. What's that comparable to, an entire subdivision in Birmingham?

[bailey]

Originally Posted by hamtown mike
That's scary. But even more frightening the statistics said a 59% increase in college educated. So if you had 2 college educated people living in the city, a 59% increase would mean that you now have 3 college educated people living in the city. [[not a simple 59% of the people are college educated.)

Numbers can say anything you want them to.

Well, my girlfriend and I both live downtown and we each have doctorates, so who is that third college-educated person now? [[*sarcasm*)

In reality, there are between 350-500 people in my building alone, of which I'd guess 60%+ have at bachelors degrees or higher. So, there's probably around 200 college educated people on my block. What's that comparable to, an entire subdivision in Birmingham?

Isn't that irrelevant if you are the only 200 in the CBD and if that subdivision in Birmingham is one of many? The question I have when it comes to these CBD numbers is how many of these college educated folks live in buildings that existed 10 years ago? If Brush lives in a building that was empty 10 years ago and now has been rehabbed and now has people in it, what relevance is there that there are more college educated people there if there was NO POSSIBILITY for ANYONE to live there earlier? It's great that 100% more people live at the Carlton than in 1999, but what does that really tell you? I think maybe a better number to look at is the percentage overall, not what the year over year percent increase is...especially as against other cities that have likely hit a "critical mass". I mean are we to somehow think NYC is experiencing a "brain drain" because Detroit had a higher percentage increase of college educated folks into a tiny area of the overall city?

A better stat that would have left fewer people smirking would be something like "there are X% more people living in the CBD as there is x% more residential there than 10 years ago and of that x% of people x% are college educated...which is an encouraging sign" Instead they went with something that just sounds phony because it's a number that tells you nothing.

[BrushStart]

bailey, I'm not disagreeing with you that the 59% figure used in the article is a useless indicator, but I think the point is that the overall number of young, educated people is greater than before. Now, you're correct in asking "greater compared to what?," but the fact is that the author didn't use that statistic because it probably wouldn't have been as flattering to our fledgling progress.

In reality, the number of young, highly educated people living in greater downtown is growing, but I'm certain the overall number is still small compared to other cities that have been steadily binging on a diet of yuppies for years. You may question at what rate it is growing [[which would be nice to know), but I think what you have to take away from this is that Detroit is finally grabbing onto the trend. Yet, I'll admit that we downtowners are still a pretty elite group, and by elite I mean limited in number. However, we are tightly concentrated geographically, so it does give one the feeling of being in a diploma-rich environment.

[stasu1213]

Thiis is the reason why we need better retail downtown and for retail and restaurants to open on Saturdays. Gilbert has the right mindset to want to encourage retail downtown while Ilitch and others just sat their asses on buildings and very slowly renovating buildings to have retail in them

[401don]

[QUOTE=stasu1213;255428]Thiis is the reason why we need better retail downtown and for retail and restaurants to open on Saturdays. Gilbert has the right mindset to want to encourage retail downtown while Ilitch and others just sat their asses on buildings and very slowly renovating buildings to have retail in them[/QUOTE

It's not like there aren't plenty of empty storefronts. Exactly what store should Ilitch open today that would be successful?

[BrushStart]

THE rooftop party was in full swing when midnight approached on a warm Friday evening. Kerry Doman, 29, founder of an event planning business; Justin Jacobs, 28, head of a citywide recreational sports league, and Ara Howrani, 29, a photographer who runs a commercial studio, knocked back beers, while a group of office friends from a nearby dot-com chatted about the scratch-and-sniff wallpaper in their colorful new headquarters.

In another circle, a group of real estate brokers excitedly discussed the renovation of a 1920s office tower called the Broderick into a 127-unit apartment building with a restaurant, lounge and retail stores.

“I want the penthouse,” Jeffrey Hillman, 37, said jokingly as he pointed to the building’s ornate Baroque-style top in the distance. “I’ll fight you for it,” retorted Hank Winchester, 37, a local TV reporter.

The scene might have been run of the mill in Seattle or Williamsburg, Brooklyn, or other urban enclaves that draw the young, the entrepreneurial and the hip. But this was downtown Detroit, far better known in recent years for crime, blight and economic decline.

Recent census figures show that Detroit’s overall population shrank by 25 percent in the last 10 years. But another figure tells a different and more intriguing story: During the same time period, downtown Detroit experienced a 59 percent increase in the number of college-educated residents under the age of 35, nearly 30 percent more than two-thirds of the nation’s 51 largest cities.

These days the word “movement” is often heard to describe the influx of socially aware hipsters and artists now roaming the streets of Detroit. Not unlike Berlin, which was revitalized in the 1990s by young artists migrating there for the cheap studio space, Detroit may have this new generation of what city leaders are calling “creatives” to thank if it comes through its transition from a one-industry.

With these new residents have come the trappings of a thriving youth culture: trendy bars and restaurants that have brought pedestrians back to once-empty streets. Places like the Grand Trunk pub, Raw Cafe, Le Petit Zinc and Avalon Bakery mingle with shops with names like City Bird, Sole Sisters and the Bureau of Urban Living.

Those familiar with past neighborhoods-of-the-moment recognize the mood. “It feels like TriBeCa back in the early days, before double strollers, sidewalk cafes and Whole Foods,” said Amy Moore, 50, a film producer working on three Detroit projects. “There is a buzz here that is real, and the kids drip with talent and commitment, and aren’t spoiled.”

Continue Reading: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/03/fa...R_AP_LO_MST_FB

[mikeg19]

I think what a lot of people have yet to realize is how much younger people such as myself yearn to live in city centers. We want to live in Detroit, where many, not all, people from older generations may not feel the same way. From a personal standpoint, I don't want to have to cut a lawn, fix a furnace, power wash my siding, deal with my hillbilly neighbor next door leaving his couch in his backyard and kids toys strewn all over his lawn. I've grown up in the suburbs all my life and despise the cookie cutter stripmall/subdivision suburbia hell I have lived in. I want to be able to walk to my destinations, not have to drive absolutely everywhere. In places like Royal Oak, Birmingham, and Detroit [[to a more limited extent) I would be able to do that. It's incredibly attractive to people like myself.

[English]

Most of Midtown is open on Saturdays and Sundays during the day. Except for Avalon, I don't see the critical mass unless there's an event. Midtown, most of the time, is still pretty sleepy. This morning I was the only one at the new coffee shop in the Park Shelton, Fourteen East, for a good hour. On a nice Saturday during the spring and summer, Eastern Market is the place to be, but sometimes, I just want to read the paper and have coffee. Can't do that at Russell Street on Saturday.

The CBD on a Saturday morning is another story altogether...

[BrushStart]

Most of Midtown is open on Saturdays and Sundays during the day. Except for Avalon, I don't see the critical mass unless there's an event. Midtown, most of the time, is still pretty sleepy. This morning I was the only one at the new coffee shop in the Park Shelton, Fourteen East, for a good hour. On a nice Saturday during the spring and summer, Eastern Market is the place to be, but sometimes, I just want to read the paper and have coffee. Can't do that at Russell Street on Saturday.

The CBD on a Saturday morning is another story altogether...

I stopped by 14 East today as well; it is pretty nice. It seems like they are settling in well.

[mwilbert]

A couple Sundays ago I went walking down from Lafayette Park over to Greektown and down to the river just to see what was happening in the early afternoon. Not much. There were families out at Lafayette Park. A few folks heading to the casino and a family on a Segway tour. A couple of people with unconventional dress and deportment. Then I went up to Midtown and it was pretty similar, although there was some visible activity at Avalon and a couple other spots. But Sunday morning and early afternoon is probably one of the deadest times of the week in most downtown areas.

This makes perfect sense, because relatively few non-residents have any reason to be downtown or in Midtown that time of day on Sunday. The most likely way that there will be more activity at off-hours is by having more people living there, supporting services that then may also be attractive to visitors. It seems clear to me that the people have to attract the businesses that are going to depend on them, not the other way around. Once you get to a certain point, you can get a virtuous circle, but if we are there at all, we are still in the very early stages.

The good news is that increasing numbers of downtown residents make that at least a possibility.

[Django]

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/03/fa...general&src=me

[Wesley Mouch]

Thanks for posting. Its great to see something positive like this for a change.

Now let's make sure those initiatives succeed. Let's hope that Bing & Co. keep the city from going all 'code enforcement' on it. Let's hope that the reactionary, conservative local lobby doesn't try to chase any new blood from town.

Go Detroit!

[xD_Brklyn]

It was an impressive article and having seen a few false starts in Detroit the past thirty years it seems maybe this time something will hold.

In the photo of the Detroit Party Marching Band accompanying the article, what is the name of the place with the pool table? Is that the Bronx bar?

[gthomas]

The banks need to lend and trust the city to do good business, which I believe it will. I guaranteed if you build residential or renovate a building in Downtown or Midtown for 10,000 units right now, they will fill up quickly. Then in turn, retail and restaurants will follow...I know, its not that simple. Just ranting..

[corktownyuppie]

The banks need to lend and trust the city to do good business, which I believe it will.

I agree that it will. When you said "trust the city", it had me wondering if you believed that bankers lending is skinny because of city distrust.

The city's economic history and current state are a big part of what lenders will consider when trying to approve a loan. But the reality is that right now commercial banks are almost completely dry right now for any real estate in development anywhere in Metro Detroit. What is happening is that FDIC regulators, who are overly cautious given the number of banks [[both statewide and nationwide) that have folded, are requiring banks to lower their exposure to construction lending altogether.

Consequently, a $1MM project that might've required a $300,000 down payment now requires $500,000-600,000 on the same loan...and that's if they're lucky enough to have room in their lending portfolio for any more loans.

On the other hand, cash balances are at all time highs. So although the banks won't lend, there are plenty of investors who have cash. As long as they don't need liquidity, they're looking for attractive places to place that cash. Unfortunately, demographically speaking, most of those investors are of an age and demographic that were around during a time where stepping into the city risked life and limb. So it's going to take some time before they're willing to invest money.

The tides are turning, though, demographic shifts are inevitably working in Detroit's favor...and banking/lending will only get better, not worse.

As a City of Detroit resident, I'm just begging that we as a city learn to welcome and embrace outsiders when they're willing to inject their capital into the city. And that might require an attitude shift. It would help, at least, if we could move from the historical default of "hostile distrust" to "healthy skepticism"...

...or better yet, to "pragmatic cooperation".

[royce]

It's encouraging to see people with a passion for the city move into the city. However, let's not get too excited about who's coming here. The twenty-somethings mean well, but they aren't making a lot of money. The potential is there. However, someone who's the head of a start-up non-profit is not going to make a six figure salary that allows him or her to live lavishly in some upscale apartment building, dining at expensive restaurants every night, and buying expensive clothes and jewelry at downtown stores. They're not the heavy hitters that are creating businesses that are going to hire a lot of unemployed Detroiters or suburbanites. Many of these young twenty-somethings are getting help from their parents or trust funds. There's nothing wrong with where they get their money, but it's not a sustainable prospect for downtown Detroit. In a year or two many of these folks will be living with their parents back in the suburbs. Many won't be able to afford the upscale rents of the new residential developments as demand for these units exceeds supply [[in the short-term).

What's really needed to sustain residential and commercial developments in downtown Detroit are young doctors, lawyers, engineers, stock brokers, and computer science graduates. A lot of the people that they mentioned at the roof-top party had college degrees, but no one among the occupations I just mentioned. I'm sorry but an entrepreneur selling slogans on T-shirts has a limited window of opportunity. Besides, Pure Detroit has a lock on T-shirts and all things Detroit.

The energy that the young folks bring to Detroit is encouraging. Some will undoubtedly hit it big, as they say in Hollywood. However, downtown Detroit needs folks with deep pockets living and playing there to make it sustainable. Their lifestyle will create the trendy restaurants and shops that will rival places in downtown Birmingham or Royal Oak.

[corktownyuppie]

It's encouraging to see people with a passion for the city move into the city. However, let's not get too excited about who's coming here. The twenty-somethings mean well, but they aren't making a lot of money. The potential is there. However, someone who's the head of a start-up non-profit is not going to make a six figure salary that allows him or her to live lavishly in some upscale apartment building, dining at expensive restaurants every night, and buying expensive clothes and jewelry at downtown stores. They're not the heavy hitters that are creating businesses that are going to hire a lot of unemployed Detroiters or suburbanites. Many of these young twenty-somethings are getting help from their parents or trust funds. There's nothing wrong with where they get their money, but it's not a sustainable prospect for downtown Detroit. In a year or two many of these folks will be living with their parents back in the suburbs. Many won't be able to afford the upscale rents of the new residential developments as demand for these units exceeds supply [[in the short-term).

What's really needed to sustain residential and commercial developments in downtown Detroit are young doctors, lawyers, engineers, stock brokers, and computer science graduates. A lot of the people that they mentioned at the roof-top party had college degrees, but no one among the occupations I just mentioned. I'm sorry but an entrepreneur selling slogans on T-shirts has a limited window of opportunity. Besides, Pure Detroit has a lock on T-shirts and all things Detroit.

The energy that the young folks bring to Detroit is encouraging. Some will undoubtedly hit it big, as they say in Hollywood. However, downtown Detroit needs folks with deep pockets living and playing there to make it sustainable. Their lifestyle will create the trendy restaurants and shops that will rival places in downtown Birmingham or Royal Oak.

As a downtown resident, I'm glad to state that it is precisely these professionals who are moving downtown. I know that it doesn't state this in the article...and certainly, we all view our world through the lens of our experience. But I can anecdotally say that it's not just do-it-yourself entrepreneurs coming into the city. In the last year I've had 5 friends into downtown. One is an attorney for the US Government, two are consultants for Fortune 500 consulting firms, another is a med student, and I'm in wealth management.

When the Class of 2011 was graduated from University of Michigan, 2 of my fraternity brothers inquired about living downtown because they wanted to go to Wayne Medical School and then get their residencies at Children's Hospital and DMC.

Now, how good is that data? Meaningless in the big scheme of things. 5-7 people does not constitute a "trend". But the Kales Building is now full, and their rent goes for $1000+/mo. Book Cadillac is even more. Broderick Tower will be around the same, depending on what floor. The young that are considering downtown moves aren't just people with a t-shirt maker and a dream...we're starting to see the migration of the kind of heavy-hitters that we used to lose to Chicago.

[Wesley Mouch]

...It would help, at least, if we could move from the historical default of "hostile distrust" to "healthy skepticism"...or better yet, to "pragmatic cooperation".

As my friend, John Galt once famously said.... "Get the hell out of my way".

[Django]

xD. I believe its the Miami, not the Bronx.

[Autoracks]

We shall see Grocery and retail will touch down and I expect for these trends to continue. Movement in a positive direction. That next big piece that needs to fall into place would be schools, preschools, and daycare. Parks with jungle gyms and swings.. Downtown has a lot going for it. Sporting venues, opera, restaurants, concert venues, casinos, bars, people mover, museums, library, hospitals, the riverfront... But are young professionals going to move downtown and start families if they have to drive their kids 20 miles to get to decent schools or kid friendly parks? i wouldnt. Community policing would be another good play. Perhaps center the parks around substations. Keep street people out of the areas where kids are playing. needles, broken glass, and intoxicated people have no business in a playground