Record High Great Lakes Water Level Expected to Climb Higher in 2020

[Lowell]

No relief appears in sight for rising Great Lakes water levels which have abruptly surged from a record low in 2013 to a record high this year according to this Free Press article. Hydrologists are now predicting the levels will continue to rise in 2020.

Belle Isle infrastructure is being threatened, in particular the electrical system's junction station which is currently sandbagged and may need more extensive protection. If it fails the island would have to shut down.

I suspect the recent collapse of the uranium-contaminated dock of the former Revereware site could be added to the tally of high water level problems.

And finally a couple of interesting and concerning facts to add to my "hmmm, I didn't know that".

Weather patterns indicate the shift has started. Annual precipitation has increased in the Great Lakes region by 13.6% since 1951, according to climate research from Michigan State University and the University of Michigan.

More of it is falling during severe storms precipitation released during the most severe 1% of storms increased by 35% between 1951 and 2017.

[CassTechGrad]

15,000 years ago, just a blink-of-the-eye in geologic terms, there were no Great Lakes. Instead there was a chunk of ice covering this area somewhere between 1 mile to 2 miles thick. Think about that for a minute. The ice started receding due to global warming around that time without any help from humans. So what is the depth of the lakes supposed to be? That’s impossible for anyone to know.

[Metro25]

It's a good thing the great lakes aren't terminal.

[Johnnny5]

We should just let Nestle bottle it all up and sell it to California!

Kidding aside, it's going to be a real mess next year if the lake levels go any higher. I was at the Orchard Beach State Park the Fall before last and even then it was already looking like the stone pavilion mentioned in the Freep article was a goner. I can't see how they can save it long term without moving it off the water, and with its location that might not even be possible.

[DetroiterOnTheWestCoast]

Get used to it. With our heads in the sand concerning climate change, there really will be no “normal” sooner rather than later.

[Ray1936]

Meanwhile, here at Lake Mead...........

[401don]

Meanwhile, here at Lake Mead...........

It's time you people started flushing on no. 2's only Ray.

[One Shot]

What did people blame the breakup of Pangea on?
These are nature’s changes. Just because you built a house or factory next to it doesn’t mean it should never change. People have to adapt to nature not vice versa.

[wazootyman]

Get used to it. With our heads in the sand concerning climate change, there really will be no “normal” sooner rather than later.

I'm no denier. I accept the science.

What I do wonder, however, is why we've defaulted to blaming just about everything on "climate change" in the last year or so. Even if there isn't a clear link.

I can only imagine the headlines if an event like the Great Lakes Storm of 1913 occurred today. I can just about guarantee every story would make reference to, if not solely blame it, on climate change.

[DetroiterOnTheWestCoast]

I'm no denier. I accept the science.

What I do wonder, however, is why we've defaulted to blaming just about everything on "climate change" in the last year or so. Even if there isn't a clear link.

I can only imagine the headlines if an event like the Great Lakes Storm of 1913 occurred today. I can just about guarantee every story would make reference to, if not solely blame it, on climate change.

I'd say its because the mega-storms or similar events are no longer outliers. They are occurring all together too frequently. You can't have a "100 year storm" every few years and continue to call it a 100 year storm. Increasingly, what we considered to be the norm simply no longer is.

As bad as the Lake Mead water level is, at least its up a bit from the past several years at this time.

[Ray1936]

It's time you people started flushing on no. 2's only Ray.

Oh, we do. County ordinance.

[Richard]

Long-term projections for future Great Lakes water levels are highly uncertain. Many studies have been published in the past several decades that use global climate models to assess the impact that future climates will have on Great Lakes water levels. Although a thorough understanding of each study will require reading the source material, the Great Lakes Hydro-Climate Dashboard allows us to put these different projections side by side for visual comparison. Open the Legend and Menu through the yellow button, select the research tab, and then the Multi-Decadal Level Forecasts tab to see these forecasts. Recent studies indicate there is little evidence that future water level variability will greatly exceed the historical range.

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/wlev...lsAndForecasts

This one shows zero change in water levels in the month of September on all the lakes.


http://lre-wm.usace.army.mil/reports...Ago-Meters.pdf


2005: Sea level is rising due to climate change,we need to figure out how to relocate 3 million Jakarta citizens.

2018 Okay the sea level is not rising,Jakarta is sinking 10 inches a year because they keep sucking the water out of the clay base underneath it.

[DetroiterOnTheWestCoast]

2018 Okay the sea level is not rising,Jakarta is sinking 10 inches a year because they keep sucking the water out of the clay base underneath it.

But it is.

[Johnnny5]

After seeing a chart showing historical lake levels, attaching the latest high levels to climate change isn't really a given. We may have hit record levels in some of the Great Lakes this past Summer, but they were just about this high [[And in some places higher) in the 1980's, 1950's and even way back in the 1880's.

The big swings up and down aren't anything new either. They show up in the charts and with the exception of the latest rise, the last couple decades actually appear to be more stable than those in the past. I think the big difference now is that we have far more development along the waterfront, and especially along St. Clair and the Detroit River a lot of waterfront property owners that were caught off guard and ill prepared after a decade of low water and deferred maintenance to their seawalls.

[Metro25]

2018: okay the sea level is rising and also jakarta is sinking 10 inches a year because they keep sucking the water out of the clay base underneath it.

ftfy

[Meddle]

I'd say its because the mega-storms or similar events are no longer outliers. They are occurring all together too frequently. You can't have a "100 year storm" every few years and continue to call it a 100 year storm. Increasingly, what we considered to be the norm simply no longer is.

I remember when a thunderstorm was just that, A storm. Fairly nice days, storm moves through during a few afternoon hours [[maybe a few overnight hours), then it's gone, until the next one some days later. Quarter, half inch rain totals.


What I've been seeing in that last fifteen years or so is quite different. Day One is OK, then begins to degrade. Day Two begins the event, heavier clouds, winds pick up, rain trains begin to form. Day Three can be the main event, heavy rains to the point of flooding, strong winds, damaging winds. Day Four may be the wind up, usually windy, but clearing, maybe with a major temperature change. Two, three or more inch rain totals. I had one event in July a few years back with something like five inches of rain in about twelve hours.

The day count may change, three, five, sometimes more. I've seen week long events.

[jcole]

My kids bought a small cottage [[really a double wide on the shore) on Lake Huron Just on the northern edge of Saginaw Bay about 4 yrs ago and have already lost all of their beach and half of the "lawn"; they've sunk over 20 grand into rocks for a breakwall to try and keep the lake out of their living room; it's already chewing at the foundations of the garage and is on the neighbor's porch. They set up cameras to keep an eye on things and during one storm they watched as the waves were coming in so hard they were throwing big rocks up at the cottage.

[iheartthed]

The really bad thing for the Great Lakes region is that it is harder to predict how climate change will affect the region. Water levels of the lakes are much more dynamic than the oceans. A decade ago the lakes looked like they were drying out, and in the past several years we've come to see the exact opposite happen. If catastrophe on the lakes does happen, Great Lakes cities won't get as much of an advanced notice as coastal cities are getting.

[Hermod]

After seeing a chart showing historical lake levels, attaching the latest high levels to climate change isn't really a given. We may have hit record levels in some of the Great Lakes this past Summer, but they were just about this high [[And in some places higher) in the 1980's, 1950's and even way back in the 1880's.

The big swings up and down aren't anything new either. They show up in the charts and with the exception of the latest rise, the last couple decades actually appear to be more stable than those in the past. I think the big difference now is that we have far more development along the waterfront, and especially along St. Clair and the Detroit River a lot of waterfront property owners that were caught off guard and ill prepared after a decade of low water and deferred maintenance to their seawalls.

Graphically:
lre-wm.usace.army.mil/ForecastData/GLBasinConditions/LTA-GLWL-Graph.pdf

[MikeM]

I remember when a thunderstorm was just that, A storm. Fairly nice days, storm moves through during a few afternoon hours [[maybe a few overnight hours), then it's gone, until the next one some days later. Quarter, half inch rain totals.

What I've been seeing in that last fifteen years or so is quite different. Day One is OK, then begins to degrade. Day Two begins the event, heavier clouds, winds pick up, rain trains begin to form. Day Three can be the main event, heavy rains to the point of flooding, strong winds, damaging winds. Day Four may be the wind up, usually windy, but clearing, maybe with a major temperature change. Two, three or more inch rain totals. I had one event in July a few years back with something like five inches of rain in about twelve hours.

The day count may change, three, five, sometimes more. I've seen week long events.

Yep. And then instead of another afternoon thunderstorm a few days later, you go weeks without a drop before the next deluge.

[Cincinnati_Kid]

And Trump says Global Warming is a farce.... Yeah, ok genius....

[Pat001]

Graphically:
lre-wm.usace.army.mil/ForecastData/GLBasinConditions/LTA-GLWL-Graph.pdf

According to the Army Corps of Engineers, great lake water levels peaked in 1930, 1952, 1958, 1986, 1998 and 2016.

[Richard]

And Trump says Global Warming is a farce.... Yeah, ok genius....

and Obama said it was not,but then had no problem dumping $14 million on ... wait for it.... waterfront property.

at least Trump is honest about it.

But have no fear,send me $100 from every paycheck you receive and I will protect you from the ravages of climate change,if you do not you will die,AOC said it so it must be true.

Interesting enough England used to be apart of solid land until the polar ice melted and made it into an island 2000 years ago.

The sun evaporates the oceans just as it melts the polar caps to keep the level,if it makes it easier just look in your toilet tank and view the sun as the refill valve.

[Hermod]

According to the Army Corps of Engineers, great lake water levels peaked in 1930, 1952, 1958, 1986, 1998 and 2016.

Lake St Clair peaks [[in meters above sea level) were:

1930 175.5
1943 175.5
1952 175.7
1970 175.5
1973 175.8
1987 176.0
1997 175.8
2019 176.0

Lows for the 1918 to 2019 were
1926 173.9
1936 173.9

Much of the duck population of the St Clair Flats was wiped out in the 1936 low as the marshes dried out and the nests were left too far from the water.

[Gistok]

and Obama said it was not,but then had no problem dumping $14 million on ... wait for it.... waterfront property.

at least Trump is honest about it.

But have no fear,send me $100 from every paycheck you receive and I will protect you from the ravages of climate change,if you do not you will die,AOC said it so it must be true.

Interesting enough England used to be apart of solid land until the polar ice melted and made it into an island 2000 years ago.

The sun evaporates the oceans just as it melts the polar caps to keep the level,if it makes it easier just look in your toilet tank and view the sun as the refill valve.

Or, if you take Obama and toilet tanks out of the equation.... this is south Florida if JUST the Greenland ice cap were to melt.... raising ocean levels by 28 ft.

The good news is that there will a lot of new oceanfront views... ... like England got 8,100 years ago after the great Norwegian landslide tsunami...