Canadian Federal Election 2019

[Richard]

One has to admit the irony

A Real Plan For The Middle Class

Offering a $2000 incentive for the underprivileged in order to go camping.

Who pays for that but the middle class?

Would it not just be easier to waive the fees and provide a camping package,tent,critter spray,stock pot?

Lets work on building up the middle class by thinking of 5000 more programs that need to be paid for by taxes levied on the middle class.

No wonder you guys can afford to waste billions on a bridge to nothing,the middle class has deep pockets with free money.

’ take the critical next steps to implement national universal pharmacare so that all Canadians have the drug coverage they need at an affordable price.
We will back up these commitments with an additional commitment of $6 billion over the next four years, tied to outcomes and negotiated with the provinces and territories.


Let me know if I am reading this right.

The argument of the cost of medicines in Canada to the consumer is cheaper then when compared to Americans.

Is the cost cheaper because it is subsidized through the government but actually paid by the consumer ,because they are also paying the subsidized tax?

We will cut corporate taxes in half for businesses that develop technologies or manufacture prod- ucts that have zero emissions.

But the existing buisness will have to increase thier tax obligations in order to make up for the shortfalls.

That whole thing consists of a bunch of new stuff that needs to be paid for over and above the current tax rates.

Clean Energy Transition
We will invest every dollar we earn from the Trans Mountain Expansion Project in Canada’s clean energy transition.
It is estimated that additional federal corporate income tax revenues resulting from the Trans Mountain Expansion Project could generate
$500 million per year once the project has been completed. This money, as well as any profit from the sale of the pipeline, will be invested in natural climate solutions and clean energy projects that will power our homes, businesses, and communities for generations to come.


So let’s run a billion dollar pipeline in order to move fossil fuels,so we can take those profits and invest in clean energy because fossil fuels are bad.

Then we can find some sucker to buy the pipeline after we ban fossil fuels in our 2050 plan,you guys have any bridges for sale?

I can see your liberals are the same as ours,they just have to make it sound good,it does not actually have to be based on reality.

[oladub]

Generally, I think the only thing that was clearly unpopular here was allowing US milk into Canada; and that's all about BGH [[Growth Hormones allowed in US dairy cattle). My understanding is that that is shrinking in terms of portion of the market that is like that; so I'm not sure its a big issue; but it does rub some folks the wrong way who see US milk as adulterated.

I'm enjoying your thread.

Recombinant Bovine Somatotropin [[rBST) is another name for recombinant Bovine Growth Hormone [[rBGH). By whatever name it's called, rBGH is a genetically engineered variant of the natural growth hormone produced by cows.

As an aside regarding BGH: Some U.S. milk producers allow BGH, other milk producers don't. I prefer that it not be included. It would be possible for Canada to import only BGH free dairy products. The Kirkland brand Costco yoghurt we buy says, "Made in Canada rBST-free: No significant difference has been shown between milk derived from rBST treated and non-rBST treated cows". That wording is required by the U.S. government on all products that wish to brag about not having any BGH in its dairy product sold in the U.S..

Greta Thunberg was a huge success in Canada; more than in the U.S.. To what do you attribute her relatively h popularity in Canada?

[Canadian Visitor]

One has to admit the irony

A Real Plan For The Middle Class

Offering a $2000 incentive for the underprivileged in order to go camping.

Who pays for that but the middle class?

Not disagreeing, this is a dumb idea. Every party has a few of those this election cycle, the Liberals own this one.

’ take the critical next steps to implement national universal pharmacare so that all Canadians have the drug coverage they need at an affordable price.......

Let me know if I am reading this right.

The argument of the cost of medicines in Canada to the consumer is cheaper then when compared to Americans.

Is the cost cheaper because it is subsidized through the government but actually paid by the consumer ,because they are also paying the subsidized tax?

The cost of drugs is lower before any government program or subsidy.

The main difference is that any new drug that requests a patent in Canada has to go to the Patent Medicine Price Review Board.

They can't charge whatever they want; they have to demonstrate they are asking a fair price [[including profit and research cost); the price they are asking is then compared with what other countries are paying, and a price is approved for the term of the patent.

Prices are also lower because drug advertising is prohibited in Canada.

Any subsidies to people are on top of that.

We will cut corporate taxes in half for businesses that develop technologies or manufacture prod- ucts that have zero emissions.

But the existing buisness will have to increase thier tax obligations in order to make up for the shortfalls.

That's not what they are proposing; there are no corporate tax increases to speak of; what they are doing, and I disagree with is deficit-financing this pledge.

Actually, let me say I disagree w/this pledge all together; I'm fine w/mandating lower emission/zero emission products by legislative fiat where practical; I don't think the government should subsidize this or engage in market-distortion.

So let’s run a billion dollar pipeline in order to move fossil fuels,so we can take those profits and invest in clean energy because fossil fuels are bad.

The Greens and NDP both oppose this pipeline, the Conservatives are also in favour.

The hypocrisy involved in this has not gone unnoticed.

Personally, my issues w/TMX are different.

1) They should have let Kinder Morgan go bankrupt and bought it out of bankruptcy for 40c on the dollar. Why overpay?

2) Not sure its needed; if 'oil sands' bitumen were upgraded in Northern Alberta, prior to being piped it would be far more viscous and you would get a lot of new capacity in the existing pipeline. That seems the more prudent, less costly way to go.

[Canadian Visitor]

I'm enjoying your thread.

Ty

Greta Thunberg was a huge success in Canada; more than in the U.S.. To what do you attribute her relatively h popularity in Canada?

I don't know that she's that much more successful here.

Yes, we had a huge climate march in Montreal and some decent sized ones elsewhere.

But I think you'd find the environment as a whole is a somewhat higher ranked issue in Canada vs the U.S.

This is particularly true in Quebec [[and BC) which are both more anti-pipeline, and have a more assertive public on these types of issues.

Quebec also has more of the European mass-protest culture vs the U.S.

A few years ago, the government of Quebec proposed to raise tuitions at Quebec's universities, which are the lowest in North America, slightly faster than inflation.

This triggered mass protests, student walkouts, lots of disruption, and the government ultimately caved.

300,000 people attending the climate strike/march is not a small protest, but neither is it shocking in Montreal.

Students took the day off school; the Prime Minister also attended, several businesses closed to let their staff attend [[brand enhancement).

I think its fair to say she has a somewhat higher, somewhat more positive profile here; but its not an enormous difference.

[Canadian Visitor]

So a few quick updates.

1) The first debate involving Trudeau took place yesterday, in French, along w/the leaders of the NDP, the Conservatives and the Bloc Quebecois.

The Greens and People's Party were not invited by the private Quebec broadcaster.

The general sense coming out of the debate seems to be that the BQ leader faired best; while Trudeau came off Ok, Singh did better than expected [[low expectations) and Scheer [[the Conservative) did the worst.

The latter may owe partly to Scheer's French which is not the best; but probably moreso that the other leaders decided to go after him for being pro-life.

There are pro-lifers in Canada to be sure, but it is not a mainstream thing in a country that hasn't had any laws on abortion in over 20 years.

But important context here is that Quebecers are particularly secular and suspicious of people who are devoutly religious [[this has hurt Singh as well, who wears a turban).

Here's one of those quirks of our First-Past-the-Post electoral system though, the Conservatives doing poorly [[in Quebec) may actually help them stand a better shot at government. If there is less vote splitting their votes may go to the BQ resulting in fewer Liberals being elected.

None of that is a given, merely possible, no post-debate polling out yet, that I have seen.

****

2) In relation to the above, Scheer [[the Conservative leader) came out this morning squarely saying he was pro-life but would not reopen the issue if elected. This is likely in response to last night, where he seemed evasive on the subject.

3) A new issue has then cropped up for the Conservatives.......it turns out their leader, Mr. Scheer is also American. His father was American and he has as a result, held duel-citizenship since birth; he has never actually resided in the U.S.

I don't think this is actually that big an issue, at least in its own right, in Canada, where dual-citizenship is not at all uncommon.

The only thing that may stick here, is that 2 campaigns ago the Conservatives made a big stink about a then Liberal leader holding dual-citizenship; and to a lesser degree it was also raised about a former NDP leader for holding dual French and Canadian citizenship.

Also of note here, is that Elizabeth May, leader of the Greens was born in the US, but immigrated to Canada in the 1970s at which time she renounced her US citizenship.

At the end of the day Scheer is saying he is the process of renouncing his US Citizenship.

It probably is not and will not be a material issue, except to the extent the party is branded as hypocritical; as Trudeau has been in light of the blackface controversy.

[Canadian Visitor]

Article from the New York Times summing up the election campaign as it goes into its final week.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/13/w...sultPosition=1

Fundamentally, it appears we're heading for a minority parliament, and/or a hung parliament [[where no combination of parties will have a working majority).

Barring a big surprise, an absolute majority for either the Liberals or the Conservatives seems out of the question; the question is who will have the plurality [[the largest number of seats) and which lessor parties will or will not support one of the big 2.

[Canadian Visitor]

I saw a column in today's Globe and Mail which is by Michael Coren, probably Canada's best known Christian columnist/author.

Of course many columnists have private faiths, but his has always been very public.

What intrigued here was the observation of how different the effect of religion is on politics in Canada. [[much smaller, but also more varied)

This owes in large part, I imagine, to a much smaller evangelican Christian population at 10% of Canadians vs the 30-35% in the U.S.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opin...-a-crossroads/

[oladub]

Former President Obama must have overcome his scruples about interference in foreign elections. He just endorsed P.M. Trudeau a week before the election.

“I was proud to work with Justin Trudeau as President. He's a hard-working, effective leader who takes on big issues like climate change,” the former U.S. president said on Twitter. “The world needs his progressive leadership now, and I hope our neighbors to the north support him for another term.""

[Canadian Visitor]

Former President Obama must have overcome his scruples about interference in foreign elections. He just endorsed P.M. Trudeau a week before the election.

“I was proud to work with Justin Trudeau as President. He's a hard-working, effective leader who takes on big issues like climate change,” the former U.S. president said on Twitter. “The world needs his progressive leadership now, and I hope our neighbors to the north support him for another term.""

This is interference, by a private citizen, mind you, but no question its a foreigner butting in.

Would seem to be intended as a favour to Trudeau [[Obama is and was well liked in Canada)

But its rubbing even a lot of progressive voters the wrong way.

Not sure it will make a material difference, but ya never know.

***

I did see someone here wondering.....how many Democrats who had seen a 'blackface' scandal would have had his endorsement. Not an unreasonable question, really.

[Lowell]

Get out the popcorn, Monday could be a long night. Latest polls show Trudeau's Party coming in second in vote but squeaking by in seats. It is likely he will have to go into a coalition with the NDP and maybe Bloc Québécois?

[Canadian Visitor]

Get out the popcorn, Monday could be a long night. Latest polls show Trudeau's Party coming in second in vote but squeaking by in seats. It is likely he will have to go into a coalition with the NDP and maybe Bloc Québécois?

It probably will be quite close, but with so many tight races any party that gets a tiny lift in the last days could swing a substantial number of seats.

In respect of a likely minority outcome; the BQ will not be in a coalition or even a supply and confidence agreement.

That would be toxic to any of the national parties.

If there was a hung parliament and no other way, whoever ended up governing would discuss BQ support on a bill by bill basis. A formal deal would create massive backlash.

[Canadian Visitor]

Andrew Coyne is a right-leaning [[but moderate) columnist with The National Post. He has a column out today lamenting the miserable choices before him.

I want to offer a few choice quotes from said article; and then a link to same below.

Of the leaders of the 2 largest parties....

"if the worst that can be said of Justin Trudeau is that he could not defeat a morally and intellectually vacuous marshmallow like Andrew Scheer, the worst that can be said of Scheer is that he could not defeat a preening fraud like Trudeau."

On climate change:

"If the Liberal climate plan is vague, inadequate and overly reliant on regulation, the Tory plan seems intended mostly as a piece of satire:"

After saying his preferred outcome would be a Conservative minority government.....he goes on to say....

"This isn’t an endorsement: there’s no way to vote for a Conservative minority, nor do I have much use for the party in its current form, except as a prophylactic against further Liberal abuses of power. For the same reason, in my own riding of University-Rosedale in Toronto, where the Conservative candidate hasn’t the slightest chance, I intend to vote Green."

Link here:

https://nationalpost.com/news/politi..._autoplay=true

[Lowell]

Trudeau survives. Liberal Minority government just called by CBC.

[Lowell]

Nice to see Peter Mansbridge again. Bloc Québécois having a big comeback night.

[Canadian Visitor]

Takeaways at this juncture.

The Conservatives, as of this moment, actually have a slight lead in popular vote, even as they are getting thumped in national seat totals.

Alberta and Saskatchewan, both resource-rich provinces, currently in an economic downtown, have elected almost entirely Conservatives.

Ontario powered the Liberals along with Atlantic Canada.

The Liberals have a minority, a fairly strong one; but will require additional votes to get bills passed.

They are unlikely to get those from the Conservatives, though, the Conservatives are well heeled and could afford another election.

The same is not true for the NDP which mortgaged their HQ to fight this campaign.

If the Conservatives sack their leader, the Liberals are pretty much safe for 3-4 years.

If they stick w/him; then the Liberals will need to line up NDP votes to pass things.

Really not 100% clear how this pans out except that Trudeau will continue on as PM and did well enough he's unlikely to step down prior to the next election.

[Canadian Visitor]

Further:

The Liberals, outside of Atlantic Canada have won pretty close to zero seats in rural area.

The Conservatives, outside of Alberta and Sask. have won zero urban seats anywhere in Canada [[Zero in Toronto, Zero in Montreal, Zero in Vancouver).

That's a bit more polarized than usual. All the parties should be mindful of that.

[Lowell]

In a way the result is as it should be, at least when considering traditional right - left, conservative - liberal issues. Socially and issue-wise Canada leans heavily left with the NDP, Bloc, and Greens all to the left of the Liberals.

As a result the Conservatives usually get an outsized portion of Parliament, and sometimes eke out holding power, as a result of Canada's fractured left. Even in this election the Conservatives got a slightly larger portion of seat vs. their vote percentage [35.6 vs 34.4].

[Lowell]

Of local interest, I notice the the Liberals flipped Windsor-Tecumseh by a razor thin 642 votes ousting NDP Cheryl Hardcastle from Joe Cromartin's old seat.

Meanwhile longtime NDP incumbent Brian Masse held Windsor West but with a much diminished margin. And Chris Lewis held Essex for the Conservative with 41% vs 59% for the parties to the left.

[Richard]

So with Trudeau being in a bit of a lame duck situation mean he needs to form somewhat of an alignment with the freebee group?

[Canadian Visitor]

So with Trudeau being in a bit of a lame duck situation mean he needs to form somewhat of an alignment with the freebee group?

Trudeau has a strong'ish minority.

The NDP [[your freebie party) is broke, and have no desire to go back to the polls right away.

The Conservatives have no immediate path to to power; the Quebec sovereignists have nothing to gain by an election either.

I would be surprised [[but stranger things have happened) to see any kind of coalition.

I expect either a supply and confidence agreement [[allows the NDP to vote as they wish on most bills but pledge to keep the Liberals afloat) or strictly bill by bill.

I don't think the Liberals really need a formal arrangement here; except that they have to be able to pass a budget, likely next February, and that will require at least one other party to vote for it.

That would most likely be the NDP.

But we shall see.

[Canadian Visitor]

In a way the result is as it should be, at least when considering traditional right - left, conservative - liberal issues. Socially and issue-wise Canada leans heavily left with the NDP, Bloc, and Greens all to the left of the Liberals.

As a result the Conservatives usually get an outsized portion of Parliament, and sometimes eke out holding power, as a result of Canada's fractured left. Even in this election the Conservatives got a slightly larger portion of seat vs. their vote percentage [35.6 vs 34.4].

Worth saying here, the Bloc aren't really all that 'Left'. They are, however, very Quebec-centric in their views, which means secular, and strong on environmental policy. But they are closely aligned with the party in power provincially in Quebec, the CAQ who would be Quebec's 'conservative' party. Though, Quebec, as a whole, is somewhat 'left' of the rest of Canada.

[Canadian Visitor]

This thread has probably run its course, but a logical finish is to confirm, as best we can at this stage, what's next.

Prime Minister Trudeau held a presser this afternoon, and here's what we know.

The new cabinet will be sworn in November 20th, and will once again be gender-equal. [[the date a bit long for a reelected government, but whatever, the latter is no surprised, in part because every female cabinet minister was reelected. )

He's ruling out any coalition government and will endeavour to pass legislation on a bill by bill basis with the support of different parties as required. [[do-able, but requires some politically astute politicians and staff)

Also, he identified a tax cut in his platform, raising the basic, tax-free exemption to the first $15,000 of earnings [[from $13,000) as his top priority. [[personally, an odd choice, as none of the parties to his left support this; and I don't see it as a vote-getter for him. Not saying its bad public policy, but I wouldn't have made it the 1st priority, myself) . On that note, I'll probably start a new thread when Canadian political news becomes sufficiently interesting to merit one here.

[Richard]

Hey maybe you guys have your own little foreign intervention in your election process with Greta,maybe a two or three year investigation is in order?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=u7HdBJdQSjs