A Tale of Two Presidents - The Politics of the OBL Elimination

**Lowell** · May-03-11, 09:43 AM

This event has to have set would-be Republican 2012 challengers to Obama on their heels. Which candidate in an already thin field benefits? Or will this have faded enough by then and it will still be 'about the economy stupid'?

Certainly the charges of Obama being weak and indecisive on foreign policy, most recently heard with Libya, have disappeared and should Gaddafi fall his star will rise higher.

It is along way off and much can happen, but IMO Romney is the strongest challenger if he can overcome his party's right, due to his past support of abortion rights and creating a state-sponsored health care system, as he has money, good looks and not a lot of negatives.

However he will have to have to face a powerful tale of two presidents stance.

Bush on Bin Laden 6 months after 9/11
http://youtu.be/4PGmnz5Ow-o

Obama on Bin Laden 2008 Debate
http://youtu.be/ze_pG6Q62HA

Obama two nights ago.
http://youtu.be/kKHsjRzUTLQ

**sirrealone** · May-03-11, 10:46 AM

Bush Sr.'s approval rating was in the 80% range after Desert Storm in Jan/Feb of 1991 and by the time the election rolled around 20 months later, he was a goner. We're 18 months away from the election now, so it's roughly the same. We live more 'in the moment' now than we did twenty years ago, so I really don't think the success of this mission is going to make much of a difference one way or another in the election next fall. If gas prices keep going up a dime a week, we'll have many more problems that the American public will be thinking about by then.

**maxx** · May-03-11, 12:07 PM

People are talking about Marco Rubio. He's a new face without a lot of history.

**firstandten** · May-03-11, 01:10 PM

Originally Posted by maxx

People are talking about Marco Rubio. He's a new face without a lot of history.

Yes, and he doing his "present" thing when voting on certain issues so you won't get a lot of history on him. However I think a 2016 run is more likely for him

**ghettopalmetto** · May-03-11, 01:14 PM

Originally Posted by firstandten

Yes, and he doing his "present" thing when voting on certain issues so you won't get a lot of history on him.

Well, that's clearly because Mr. Rubio is just so damned principled!

**firstandten** · May-03-11, 01:17 PM

Originally Posted by sirrealone

Bush Sr.'s approval rating was in the 80% range after Desert Storm in Jan/Feb of 1991 and by the time the election rolled around 20 months later, he was a goner. We're 18 months away from the election now, so it's roughly the same. We live more 'in the moment' now than we did twenty years ago, so I really don't think the success of this mission is going to make much of a difference one way or another in the election next fall. If gas prices keep going up a dime a week, we'll have many more problems that the American public will be thinking about by then.

Bush raised taxes a no-no among his base. He had a third party candidate take a lot of votes from him plus the economy was in recession. So yes, a lot will have to do with the economy and with the 24 hour news cycle people will quickly forget about Bin Ladin

**firstandten** · May-03-11, 01:24 PM

Originally Posted by ghettopalmetto

Well, that's clearly because Mr. Rubio is just so damned principled!

Well he needs to show me his BC to prove to me he was born in Miami and not Cuba

**ghettopalmetto** · May-03-11, 01:30 PM

Originally Posted by firstandten

Bush raised taxes a no-no among his base. He had a third party candidate take a lot of votes from him plus the economy was in recession. So yes, a lot will have to do with the economy and with the 24 hour news cycle people will quickly forget about Bin Ladin

Yes, but it also means the Republicans don't get to claim the "tough on terrorism" card that they've played without justification [[or shame).

**firstandten** · May-03-11, 04:00 PM

Originally Posted by Lowell

It is along way off and much can happen, but IMO Romney is the strongest challenger if he can overcome his party's right, due to his past support of abortion rights and creating a state-sponsored health care system, as he has money, good looks and not a lot of negatives.

I agree. I think Romney poses the biggest threat to Obama. Romney has two challenges IMO
one he needs to win his parties nomination which is not a given. Two assuming he wins the nomination he will need to get the parties base to rally behind him which again is not a given since the base has gone so far to the right and is so fringe they may not put the work in to get him elected.

**Papasito** · May-04-11, 02:25 PM

I think Romney poses the biggest threat to Obama.

He's not very charismatic. Maybe if he can get a way to get people motivated....
When I think Romney, I get the sudden urge to want to take a nap

**Detroitej72** · May-05-11, 08:04 AM

Originally Posted by firstandten

Bush raised taxes a no-no among his base. He had a third party candidate take a lot of votes from him

Trump has said he could run as an independent if he fails to secure the nomination from the Repubs, which would surely split the cons voting bloc.

**Searay215** · May-05-11, 10:43 AM

Originally Posted by Detroitej72

Trump has said he could run as an independent if he fails to secure the nomination from the Repubs, which would surely split the cons voting bloc.

IMHO.....Trump running as an Independent would guarantee an Obama win......Go Mr. Trump!! And if gets the Repub.....nod which he won't....that would still be a loss for the Repub

**jackie5275** · May-07-11, 09:12 AM

Originally Posted by ghettopalmetto

Yes, but it also means the Republicans don't get to claim the "tough on terrorism" card that they've played without justification [[or shame).

Which is something I am particularly glad about. I remember it all over the 2004 campaign. Their underlying themes of "Which party will keep you safe?" and "You're not a true, patriotic American if you don't vote for the party that can keep you safe." I think that fear about national safety & security bought Bush Jr. a bunch of votes from people who played right into that message. I know I had two co-workers who voted for him because they didn't think Kerry could keep the country safe or know what to do if there was another terrorist attack.