Demographers say Detroit could lose another 200,000 people in next ten years

**begingri** · May-02-11, 05:22 PM

By The Associated Press MLive.com

For over a month, Detroit has been reeling from new census numbers that showed the city lost more population in the last 10 years than anyone realized — 230,000 or about 25 percent. City officials are trying to get the estimate increased, arguing that thousands of residents went uncounted.

More troubling is the outlook for the city's next 10 years. Rather than a rebound, which community leaders are publicly talking up, demographers are projecting losses of another 100,000 to 200,000 people, leaving the city somewhere between Tucson, Ariz., and Memphis in size:- 500,000-plus, only without much of a middle class.

"I can safely say the population there shows no sign of bouncing back any time soon," said Mark Mather of the Population Reference Bureau, a Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit that analyzes national population, health and environmental data. "Most demographers would suggest a continuation of the decline we've seen unless there is a dramatic turnaround in the economy and revitalization of parts of the city."

In population decline, "We're not done yet," said financial consultant James McTevia, president of a Michigan-based firm that specializes in turnaround management.

But, bad as it is, Detroit could still go in either direction, some experts say, since turnarounds do happen. Not long ago, urban areas like Brooklyn and Jersey City, N.J., were also afflicted with blight and economic decay, only to reverse course and begin getting better.

City leaders and supporters are now focusing on what it would take to change Detroit's trajectory, knowing that an expanding wasteland would be the alternative. No single plan has emerged, but efforts now are directed at salvaging the center city and a smattering of other viable neighborhoods, at trying to create an inviting environment for artists and at attracting more technology jobs. These are seen as keys to making Detroit a place where middle class people would be willing to live.

"Many young professionals are looking for greenways, walking trails, bike paths, parks; also a diversity in housing," said Jeff Nutting, a demographer with the Southeast Michigan Council of Governments. "In addition to traditional single-family homes, you need to have condos, loft conversions." These are things Detroit could offer, along with a modest cost of living.

Continued at: http://www.mlive.com/news/detroit/in...raphers_s.html

**iheartthed** · May-02-11, 08:34 PM

Jersey City and Brooklyn both sit right next to Manhattan. I don't see anything like a Manhattan popping up in Michigan any time soon...

**p1acebo** · May-02-11, 08:41 PM

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Jersey City and Brooklyn both sit right next to Manhattan. I don't see anything like a Manhattan popping up in Michigan any time soon...

What are you talking about, we have all the nice suburbs sitting right next to the inner city

**Parkguy** · May-02-11, 08:47 PM

How about permanent $5/gal gas, with companies and individuals moving to a central location to avoid the costs of being so far away from everything?

**313WX** · May-02-11, 09:00 PM

Originally Posted by Parkguy

How about permanent $5/gal gas, with companies and individuals moving to a central location to avoid the costs of being so far away from everything?

They would probably move to a city that already has a vibrant urban core instead of taking a risk on Detroit.

If it came down to that of course.

lilpup · May-02-11, 09:45 PM

The primary thing needs Detroit needs is stable, uncorrupted government. Have that consistently for a few years and things will start changing. It seems like no one wants to acknowledge how far Kwame & crew set back the city and all these outsiders have no way of understanding it and working it into their evaluations and commentaries.

**jtf1972** · May-02-11, 10:40 PM

If population trends from the last century hold true, Detroit by 2050 will have a population of just under three million.

**professorscott** · May-02-11, 11:32 PM

Of course it is impossible to predict the distant future, but the critical thing is to answer this question: why will people choose to live in Detroit in the future? That is to say, what will Detroit offer that other places will not?

So far, sadly, the leadership of Detroit has not chosen to discuss such an issue. If that trend continues, then there is no stopping the exodus and Detroit could end up almost completely wiped out.

There is hope, but only if the so-called leaders step up to the plate and begin to describe a viable future for Detroit. I have been waiting to hear this discussion for many years. Hopefully it will begin sometime soon.

**Richard** · May-02-11, 11:40 PM

Originally Posted by lilpup

The primary thing needs Detroit needs is stable, uncorrupted government. Have that consistently for a few years and things will start changing. It seems like no one wants to acknowledge how far Kwame & crew set back the city and all these outsiders have no way of understanding it and working it into their evaluations and commentaries.

+ 5

Outsiders understand it more then you think thats why they are staying away temporarily,creating an even playing field and actually opening up to outsiders would go a long ways.

Believe it or not every news article that shows another level of corruption that has been exposed is a positive sign,all the rest, blight,quality of life issues is really secondary, finish cleaning up city hall and it will build investor confidence which equals jobs,tax-dollars etc. Everything else falls into place.

**rjk** · May-03-11, 04:01 AM

Originally Posted by Richard

+ 5

Outsiders understand it more then you think thats why they are staying away temporarily,creating an even playing field and actually opening up to outsiders would go a long ways.

Believe it or not every news article that shows another level of corruption that has been exposed is a positive sign,all the rest, blight,quality of life issues is really secondary, finish cleaning up city hall and it will build investor confidence which equals jobs,tax-dollars etc. Everything else falls into place.

You could have a person with the ethical makeup of Mother Teresa running this place for the last decade and it still would be in the same predicament it is today .I hate Kawme as much as the next guy, but he didn't bring this city to its knees.

You either have an overly bright outlook or you're not understanding the complexities of Detroit's problems. I'm guessing that some people want to grasp on the corruption issue at the head of Detroit's problems because it's by far the easiest one to fix. They've basically already fixed it now with Bing, so in another 5 to 10 years those secondary issues as you call them will turn around?
If only it were that easy.

**Hermod** · May-03-11, 04:59 AM

Originally Posted by rjk

You could have a person with the ethical makeup of Mother Teresa running this place for the last decade and it still would be in the same predicament it is today .I hate Kawme as much as the next guy, but he didn't bring this city to its knees.

You either have an overly bright outlook or you're not understanding the complexities of Detroit's problems. I'm guessing that some people want to grasp on the corruption issue at the head of Detroit's problems because it's by far the easiest one to fix. They've basically already fixed it now with Bing, so in another 5 to 10 years those secondary issues as you call them will turn around?
If only it were that easy.

Bing didn't fix it. Bing is only the first step. There are many, many layers to the kleptocracy that must be cleaned out root ad branch. You have to pretty much tear it all down and rebuild it into an austere operation.

lilpup · May-03-11, 05:41 AM

Archer was taking steps forward. Kwame undid all that plus more. Bing is starting from damned near zero but he's at least making connections that could be helpful in the long run and the Feds aren't ignoring Detroit quite as much anymore.

**GOAT** · May-03-11, 07:52 AM

Originally Posted by Parkguy

How about permanent $5/gal gas, with companies and individuals moving to a central location to avoid the costs of being so far away from everything?

FYI, Detroit doesn't have much to offer. Everything Detroiters need is in the suburbs unfortunately. The same with Windsor. Living in the downtown is more detrimental than living in the suburbs now. Who would have thought that? Damn we are a dumb people in this region....

**mwilbert** · May-03-11, 07:54 AM

Governmental corruption isn't as important as governmental incompetence. Detroit has been severely disadvantaged by having both. Detroit has structural issues that no government could really have changed, but the idea that the current level of flight was inevitable seems wrong to me.

**Danny** · May-03-11, 08:00 AM

Merging Detroit with the suburbs could be the last hope to keep the population up.

**Carey** · May-03-11, 08:04 AM

Originally Posted by lilpup

The primary thing needs Detroit needs is stable, uncorrupted government. Have that consistently for a few years and things will start changing. It seems like no one wants to acknowledge how far Kwame & crew set back the city and all these outsiders have no way of understanding it and working it into their evaluations and commentaries.

Detroit had eight years of stable government and little corruption under Dennis Archer. The national economy was in high gear, and that trickled down to southeast Michigan; census data shows Detroit's median income rose. Yet the city continued to decline. Jobs and people kept leaving.

For the sake of argument, let's say Kwame had been the second coming of Dennis Archer when it came to ethics. Do you think the census data would have been any different? Would the city's economy have turned out differently? I don't think Kwame had that much to do with the bigger picture -- the 60-year decline that, sadly, shows no sign of slowing down.

drippyhollows · May-03-11, 09:17 AM

Originally Posted by Danny

Merging Detroit with the suburbs could be the last hope to keep the population up.

What good would that do? To keep the population above a certain number for the sake of govt funding? The casinos and income tax rate which are no longer legitimate because of the population slide? For the sake of pride? The inner ring suburbs aren't exactly in the best of ways to begin with but I'm sure city politicians would love that increased tax base to squander.

**Whitehouse** · May-03-11, 12:00 PM

Really shows a second bridge over the Detroit river could be vital for the surviving of Detroit.

**SWMAP** · May-03-11, 12:08 PM

???

The DRIC project is said to be vital for Michigan economy and national security. Unsure how you translated that it would be vital for Detroit alone.

**iheartthed** · May-03-11, 12:19 PM

Originally Posted by SWMAP

???

The DRIC project is said to be vital for Michigan economy and national security. Unsure how you translated that it would be vital for Detroit alone.

How did you translate his words into him meaning the project would be "vital for Detroit alone"?

**SWMAP** · May-03-11, 12:24 PM

Well, since "Detroit " is the only qualifier Whitehouse saw fit to use, that's how.

**iheartthed** · May-03-11, 12:25 PM

Originally Posted by SWMAP

Well, since "Detroit " is the only qualifier Whitehouse saw fit to use, that's how.

Uhhhh, okay.

**Fnemecek** · May-03-11, 04:55 PM

Originally Posted by lilpup

The primary thing needs Detroit needs is stable, uncorrupted government. Have that consistently for a few years and things will start changing. It seems like no one wants to acknowledge how far Kwame & crew set back the city and all these outsiders have no way of understanding it and working it into their evaluations and commentaries.

Define "stable, uncorrupted government."

If a government does absolutely nothing but collect taxes that are roughly double the national average, that is it doesn't try to shake anyone down for bribes but it also doesn't provide any of the core services on a consistent basis either, then is it an "uncorrupted" government?

Is tacking tax dollars without delivering on services a form of corruption?

lilpup · May-03-11, 08:30 PM

Without corruption where are those tax dollars going if they aren't delivering services? That degree of incompetence is much, much less likely than corruption.

**ResurgetCineribus** · May-03-11, 08:49 PM

Originally Posted by begingri

By The Associated Press MLive.com

...

"Many young professionals are looking for greenways, walking trails, bike paths, parks; also a diversity in housing," said Jeff Nutting, a demographer with the Southeast Michigan Council of Governments. "In addition to traditional single-family homes, you need to have condos, loft conversions." These are things Detroit could offer, along with a modest cost of living.

...

Could offer? What the hell, Detroit already does offer all of these things. It's why I live here!