2010 Census Results...

[313WX]

Basically Michigan was the only stat to lose roughly 54,000 people [[1%), and most of it came from Metro Detroit. Almost every locale outside of Metro detroitr had growth, so this only tells us Metro Detroitr lost quite a few people for Michigan to still have a lost.

The latest unofficial number for Detroit from SEMCOG was around 772,000, but the OFFICIAL numbers from the census haven't been released yet. Consider the number of people who left when they were offered easy money to buy a house in the suburbs and also the people who were probably forced to move when their home was foreclosed on during the economic crash. The growth in Midtown [[below 100,000) probably wouldn't make up for any decline.

Either way, we can pretty much expect to fall to at least 14th place [[with Indianapolis, Jacksonville and San Francisco passing us) and 18th place at the worst. In fact, falling from the 2nd largest midwest city to the 4th largest [[Columbus) isn't out of the question either.

BTW, all of the cities that will/may surpass us grew in the 2010 census.

-Indianapolis = 829, 718 from 781,926 [[6%)
-Jacksonville = 813, 518 from 735,503 [[11%)
-San Francisco = 805, 293 from 776,733
-Austin = 790,390 from 656,562 [[20%)
-Columbus = 787,033 from 711,470 [[11%)
-Forth Worth = 727,575 from 534,694 [[36%)
-Charlotte = 731,424 from 540,828 [[35%)

[BrushStart]

I think Detroit's population will plateau at around 500k.

[Crumbled_pavement]

I think Detroit's population will plateau at around 500k.

I was thinking lower than that.

[BrushStart]

I was thinking lower than that.

How low?

250k? 100k? Hell, Livonia has 100k.

[Bham1982]

Many areas outside of Metro Detroit experienced population loss, and many areas within Metro Detroit experienced growth, so it's not as simple as saying SE Michigan shrank and the rest of the state grew.

I bet you the largest population losses [[by far) were in the U.P.

[Hermod]

Many areas outside of Metro Detroit experienced population loss, and many areas within Metro Detroit experienced growth, so it's not as simple as saying SE Michigan shrank and the rest of the state grew.

I bet you the largest population losses [[by far) were in the U.P.

Da Yoo Pee and the northern part of the mitten have been losing population since 1910 with the decline of the extraction industries [[iron ore, copper, and timber). They are probably "plateaued out" by now and are down to hard core residents. I don't think you will get too much more loss up there.

[Detroitnerd]

How much, if any, of the population growth in other cities is due to changing boundaries/annexations?

[iheartthed]

How much, if any, of the population growth in other cities is due to changing boundaries/annexations?

Louisville is the only central city I know of that had a large annexation in the past decade. That city/county consolidation also made it a contender to overtake Detroit in population depending on how far Detroit has fallen...

[Novine]

"How much, if any, of the population growth in other cities is due to changing boundaries/annexations?"

Most of those cities expanded in size via annexation. But some of those cities like Austin and Charlotte are getting growth through population growth in their urban core versus capturing new growth via annexation.

http://www.fortworthgov.org/planning....aspx?id=77500

http://www.fortworthgov.org/uploaded...ndixF_2010.pdf

http://www.ci.austin.tx.us/annexatio..._by_decade.pdf

http://ww.charmeck.org/Planning/Anne...on_History.pdf

[Crumbled_pavement]

How low?

250k? 100k? Hell, Livonia has 100k.

350 - 400K. I don't even have a problem with that either. I'd rather a world class city with about 400K citizens over a dysfunctional city with 1.8M people.

[mwilbert]

I agree with the sentiment, but for that to work the 400K people are going to have to live in about 25% of the city's land mass or less.

[Crumbled_pavement]

I agree with the sentiment, but for that to work the 400K people are going to have to live in about 25% of the city's land mass or less.

I think we are definitely headed towards that. The amount of abandonment is staggering. You could fit the city of Boston inside of the abandoned areas of Detroit, if my memory serves me correctly.

[laphoque]

I don't think world class cities have 400K people...

[English]

I'm not sure where Detroit will bottom out. There are too many factors to consider. But it's guaranteed we'll continue to lose population without visionary leadership.

[Richard]

maybe lenscrafters can be persuaded to put a store in city hall

[R8RBOB]

Want to repopulate Detroit? Here are two things that need to happen to make that a reality.
1) spear new home development. I was born in Detroit and I love Detroit but even those who love Detroit as I do will not move back to Detroit to live in a 3br, 1bath home on Seven Mile and Hubbell.
2) clean up DPS. No one is going to move to Detroit if the school system is in free fall.

Detroit is no way near either of the two things so it is a sure bet that the population will continue to bleed until Detroit get a windfall of cash to enact the two things.

[iheartthed]

I don't think world class cities have 400K people...

They don't have just 400K people in an area that could comfortably fit 2 million.

[Richard]

Depends on the target group ,if you are enticing early 20 somethings then it will buy time to get the schools straightened out ,because once they start having kids then they will be gone.

Housing is in their price range and they overlook or are more likely not notice what others would. I think Detroit may be the only city where a 20 something can afford to buy a house.

For the older folks yes the school system would play a major decisive role safety in numbers would help deter allot of the crime aspects.But to think that the answer is to bring everybody in from the suburbs resolves nothing all you will be doing is moving the problem,the key is to bring them in from other states.

Can the lure of cheap home ownership work ? who knows.

[Danny]

If Detroit's population is 772,000 Then mostly middle class blacks are moving out quicker. The Mexican/Hispanic population increase by 20,000 from 47,000 in 2000 to 64,000 in 210,000 The white population slow increase from 116,000 in 2000 to 140,000 in 2010 Source: U.S. Census.gov. The poor black folks who are living in the ghettohood are trap like rats, ready to be rotted out and forgotten.

[Richard]

Poverty has no race boundaries.

I wonder what the formula for the aging boomers has on all cities, this whole shrinking city thing has been going on for over twenty years and unless the twenty and thirty somethings start having 9 kids per family it is going to continue. As a boomer I prefer a walkable city myself.

From 2004 to 2009 when I was in Orlando Fla I lost 60% of my costumers who were middle class they sold out and moved to Tennessee and the Carolinas because the quality of life was diminishing,growth still continues upward in Fla because of the influx from latin america but the downward cycle is beginning.

That is why Detroit intrigues me,all of the other cities or most anyways allready went through their cycle of being down then coming back up and now are going through the down cycle again. Detroit can really be in a position of being a leading US city more so then others.

[Redleg81]

From my travels around the state following my nephew's wrestling team, it seems that more than the metro area has suffered population loss. Alma, comes to mind as a small college town which had taken some massive [[when accounting for scale) hits during the last decade or so, having closed their oil refinery and an aluminum boat building industry, among others.... Something like 500+ jobs gone, a drop in the bucket by shear numbers, but in a small town this equals devastation. For example, they built a brand new high school that is only something like at half its designed capacity [[-- This last bit is hearsay, I don't have the actual numbers, but it looked underutilized). Anyway I was sure that I read last year that as a state we expected population loss in 63 out of our 83 counties. Does anyone know if those numbers held true?

[Augustiner]

even those who love Detroit as I do will not move back to Detroit to live in a 3br, 1bath home on Seven Mile and Hubbell.

Why not? Those are really nice houses around there. I'd take one any day over a spit-and-paper-mache shitbox on 25 and Schoenherr that can hardly stand up to a strong wind.

[Hermod]

Anyway I was sure that I read last year that as a state we expected population loss in 63 out of our 83 counties. Does anyone know if those numbers held true?

I will be real interested when the Census Bureau puts of the state by state, county by county, and city by city numbers. US House and state House and Senate redistricting will be a real battle. Lots and lots of court cases.

[Mr. Houdini]

I moved from Royal Oak to Charlotte, NC in 2009 for a job, as I was laid off 3 times in 5 years back in MI. So, I guess I'm in that number, as well as my wife and two kids.

Note: if you work in IT, as a developer or whatnot, there are tons of job openings in Charlotte. Charlotte has the second largest banking industry in the US after New York. Thye need lots of IT professionals. Lowe's and Goodrich HQs are here too.

[Bham1982]

Metro Charlotte has roughly the same unemployment rate as Metro Detroit, so it's probably not a great option for too many folks right now.

The Carolinas, overall, actually have worse unemployment than Michigan. Michigan is in rough shape, but has improved markedly over the last two years, while the Carolinas and Georgia have worsened considerably.