What's going to happen if the suburbs start going the way of the city?

[BrushStart]

http://www.detnews.com/article/20110...-for-tax-hikes

This is pretty disturbing, so I think it's worth talking about. Property values are plummeting in inner-ring suburbs. One in ten homes in Hazel Park is vacant. Communities are running out of money to pay for essential services like fire and police. They are trying to raise taxes, but this will probably lead to more people leaving. Everything except bare bones services will be cut.

What's going to happen if the inner-ring suburbs fall into the same vortex of decline that has gripped Detroit for 40 years? These communities will not get a bailout from the state and they won't be getting a reprieve in terms of new residents from Detroit as that well is dry. Clearly, the suburbs are not immune, Oakland County is not exempt, and seemingly, the doughnut can actually get bigger.

[j to the jeremy]

http://www.detnews.com/article/20110...-for-tax-hikes

This is pretty disturbing, so I think it's worth talking about. Property values are plummeting in inner-ring suburbs. One in ten homes in Hazel Park is vacant. Communities are running out of money to pay for essential services like fire and police. They are trying to raise taxes, but this will probably lead to more people leaving. Everything except bare bones services will be cut.

What's going to happen if the inner-ring suburbs fall into the same vortex of decline that has gripped Detroit for 40 years? These communities will not get a bailout from the state and they won't be getting a reprieve in terms of new residents from Detroit as that well is dry. Clearly, the suburbs are not immune, Oakland County is not exempt, and seemingly, the doughnut can actually get bigger.

They already have fallen into the vortex. What needs to happen now to prevent a "domino" effect of decay is some true regional planning, cooperation, and an admission that choking off the city of Detroit from its suburbs for years is one unfortunate cause of this problem. If regional rapid transit [[rail) ever expands outside of Woodward, it will also help immensely by increasing property values, new development, and a regional sense of place. Michigan is broke though, If we were in Greece or Wisconsin maybe people would be in the streets by now.

[professorscott]

They already have fallen into the vortex. What needs to happen now to prevent a "domino" effect of decay is some true regional planning, cooperation, and an admission that choking off the city of Detroit from its suburbs for years is one unfortunate cause of this problem. If regional rapid transit [[rail) ever expands outside of Woodward, it will also help immensely by increasing property values, new development, and a regional sense of place. Michigan is broke though, If we were in Greece or Wisconsin maybe people would be in the streets by now.

Amen to this.

[Vox]

The MML has a PDF on their website that illustrates the drop in the revenue sharing for cities as well. The tin lining in the cloud is that it\'s only about a 65 dollar difference for the millage in HP due to the huge valuation drop.

[canuck]

They already have fallen into the vortex. What needs to happen now to prevent a "domino" effect of decay is some true regional planning, cooperation, and an admission that choking off the city of Detroit from its suburbs for years is one unfortunate cause of this problem. If regional rapid transit [[rail) ever expands outside of Woodward, it will also help immensely by increasing property values, new development, and a regional sense of place. Michigan is broke though, If we were in Greece or Wisconsin maybe people would be in the streets by now.

I dont agree with the assumption that Michigan, metro Detroit or the US cant afford to dish out on mass transit alternatives. What will folks do when the ship sinks? They will either jump deck as per usual for new suburban developments or they will wake up to the fact that the Donut is getting a bit stale by now. I hope something positive comes from this alarming statistic.

There are many parts of the world where a better transit system exists, and are otherwise much poorer.

[Carey]

Many older suburbs, and even some newer ones, find themselves in a plight similar to that of Detroit in the late 1950s and early 1960s: Dwindling revenues caused by economic problems far beyond the control of local officials. Jerry Cavangh couldn't do much about the closing of auto plants and suppliers, and he was forced to institute the city income tax. Future mayors -- among many cuts -- reduced the number of city employees, closed rec centers and did away with the kind of perks that made Detroit special, such as canoe rentals on Belle Isle and the archery range at Balduck Park.

Today, as the region continues to shrink and the econonmy still sputters, once-mighty Troy discusses closing its library. Dearborn ponders locking its neighborhood pools. Hazel Park deals with 10 percent of its housing stock being vacant. Those things are unfortunate, but perhaps they will put into persepctive why Detroit is like it is today. While there certainly has been mismanagement and corruption over the years, the city's fundamental problem has been national and even global economic change that Cavanagh, Gribbs, Young etc. could do nothing about.

[BrushStart]

Those things are unfortunate, but perhaps they will put into persepctive why Detroit is like it is today.

I agree. I'm just worried that people will place the blame on all the same wrong reasons. If so, it'll show we haven't learned anything and things will never improve.

[bailey]

I agree. I'm just worried that people will place the blame on all the same wrong reasons. If so, it'll show we haven't learned anything and things will never improve.

Well, you're assuming all the variables are the same. Detroit failed because it's population left for the suburbs and that leaving was facilitated by some very short sighted planning and policies. The difficulties in the suburbs stem from the fact the industry that this state relied on for 100 years has left the country. I mean HP doesn't have one in ten houses sitting vacant because those folks all moved to Auburn Hills. Those vacant homes are vacant because the people that lived in them don't have jobs anymore.

[Detroitnerd]

We cannot think of this in terms of JOBS JOBS JOBS. At least in what we're debating here, that is a red herring. Think of it: A population that has remained flat since the 1960s but has gobbled up ever larger land mass, leaving behind it depopulated, disinvested areas, beyond it sprawling exurbs doomed to obsolescence. It's not a matter of jobs, it's a matter of intelligent planning and regional vision.

[Carey]

Bailey: Don't you believe the loss of jobs played a role in people leaving Detroit? I don't think there is any dispute that job growth in the suburbs mirorred job loss in the city in the 1950s-60s-70s etc.

[hamtown mike]

We cannot think of this in terms of JOBS JOBS JOBS. At least in what we're debating here, that is a red herring. Think of it: A population that has remained flat since the 1960s but has gobbled up ever larger land mass, leaving behind it depopulated, disinvested areas, beyond it sprawling exurbs doomed to obsolescence. It's not a matter of jobs, it's a matter of intelligent planning and regional vision.

Here Here! Not JOBS JOBS JOBS [[though they do help) but density density density! I think that is one of hamtramck's saving graces. Wikipedia: The population density [[of Hamtramck) was 10,900.5 per square mile [[4,208.7 /km2), making it the most densely populated city in Michigan.

[iheartthed]

Well, you're assuming all the variables are the same. Detroit failed because it's population left for the suburbs and that leaving was facilitated by some very short sighted planning and policies. The difficulties in the suburbs stem from the fact the industry that this state relied on for 100 years has left the country. I mean HP doesn't have one in ten houses sitting vacant because those folks all moved to Auburn Hills. Those vacant homes are vacant because the people that lived in them don't have jobs anymore.

I don't think your two theories are disconnected. If Metro Detroit was building new housing at a slower rate than the population was growing then there would be little abandonment. Build more than the population can absorb and you get Detroit. Since the practices haven't changed, what happened in Detroit is just spilling into the suburbs. The loss of industry is probably exacerbating the problem, but it's not the root cause.

[mikefmich]

What do you mean start? It's been well under way for awhile.....

[BrushStart]

What do you mean start? It's been well under way for awhile.....

Yes, but people tend to live in denial until the physical symptoms catch up with the disease. Suburbs are starting to see actual abandonment, empty storefronts, and neglected properties. They are starting to see the loss of services, and home values falling further and further without rebounding. In return, they are getting higher taxes, poorer services, and increased flight.

The question is: How are people going to respond?

[mwilbert]

The question is: How are people going to respond?

By blaming other people, if history is any guide.

[Detroitnerd]

I'll just say it again: We need regional government. Not just a system like SEMCOG which -- instead of planning -- simply predicts where sprawl will reach in 10 or 20 years. The growth machine is off. The unification process must begin now.

[Ray1936]

I'll just say it again: We need regional government.

Jesus. I've been saying that since 1970, at least. All these little feifdoms around Detroit are absolutely ridiculous in this day and age. But the politicians inhabiting these towns will never let it happen.

[Detroitnerd]

Jesus. I've been saying that since 1970, at least. All these little feifdoms around Detroit are absolutely ridiculous in this day and age. But the politicians inhabiting these towns will never let it happen.

I hear you, Ray. How does the saying go? "It's hard to convince a man that something is true when his paycheck depends on it not being true.”

[fryar]

And so it continues...

Anyway, that's how the system works, right? You build some more properties a couple of miles further out, which makes it possible for people to abandon the currently inhabited areas?

It's all about Detroit. An attractive city center disincentivizes the sprawl to begin with, and attracts residents to the region, minimizing the impact of sprawl.

[bailey]

We cannot think of this in terms of JOBS JOBS JOBS. At least in what we're debating here, that is a red herring. Think of it: A population that has remained flat since the 1960s but has gobbled up ever larger land mass, leaving behind it depopulated, disinvested areas, beyond it sprawling exurbs doomed to obsolescence. It's not a matter of jobs, it's a matter of intelligent planning and regional vision.

The sprawling exurbs and asinine planning are why Detroit is empty. I'm with you there. But prior to the complete collapse and off shoring of our only major industry here, HP didn't have 1 out of every ten houses empty. It was your standard blue collar bed room community. Again, it's not like HP residents up and moved to the exurbs. They are getting foreclosed on and leaving the area.

Bailey: Don't you believe the loss of jobs played a role in people leaving Detroit? I don't think there is any dispute that job growth in the suburbs mirorred job loss in the city in the 1950s-60s-70s etc.

Yes, absolutely. I meant population to include buisness and capital. My point is in the 50 thru1980s... the population both led and followed buisness and capital investment out of Detroit. The march out of Detroit was facilitated by incredibly bad foresight and subsidized by the State through infrastructure upgrades/creation. Today, the difference is business and capital is simply leaving the area completely. It's not moving further out in the country driving sprawl further away.....it's leaving the country entirely.

Detroitnerd I'll just say it again: We need regional government. Not just a system like SEMCOG which -- instead of planning -- simply predicts where sprawl will reach in 10 or 20 years. The growth machine is off. The unification process must begin now

Great. How does that solve the problem of half empty subdivisions and mile after mile of empty buisiness parks in Macomb or where ever? how is regionalization going to solve 60 years of unfettered sprawl? Unless by regionalization you mean forced siezure of land and property and forced relocation....the size or number of governments aren't the problem right now. 20% unemployment is. Making sure the sprawl machine doesnt get turned back on when ...or if...the economy recovers around here is.


Maybe there should be LESS unification? LESS revenue sharing. Detroit, Hamtramck, Traverse city...wherever....gets to keep every tax dollar it collects from it's citizens and receives NOTHING from the state. The state/ county would then charge each municipality a la cart for services. Want that piece of M59 expanded in Utica? Well, Utica...cough up the 10 mill.

Perhaps actually paying the true cost of things would drive consolidation? Maybe that is what we are seeing now?

[Danny]

Yes the urban donut will get bigger. Middle class folks in the next generation are getting tired of living just from the border of Detroit to far as 6 miles away from Detroit from those ticky tacky homes. The issue is not just JOBS, JOBS, JOBS, or density, density density! It's suburban city services, its public school system after the School of Choice Act passed luring students from the inner cities and low-income folks [[especially from Detroit) migrating to suburban inner ring borders. Middle class folks are still flighting further and further into wide open greener spaces where there is no public city or suburban buses running and the nearest shopping center is just a car drive away. Middle class folks just want get away from the Detroit's problems as soon as possible. They did it in the 1950s and its speeding up in the new millenium.

However there is a generation reversal of empty nesters are migrating to Detroit to get with the entertainment and college businesses scene. They will fight those po'folks, mutants, schizoblacks and DEAD [[C)KRAK HEADS out of their way. Detroit's white population had grown by 6% from 89,000 in 2000 to 140,000 in 2010. So did the Asian, Mexican/Latino population and other races.

WORD FROM THE STREET PROPHET

As the urban donut is so delicious

Neda, I miss you so.

[Detroitnerd]

Great. How does that solve the problem of half empty subdivisions and mile after mile of empty buisiness parks in Macomb or where ever? how is regionalization going to solve 60 years of unfettered sprawl? Unless by regionalization you mean forced siezure of land and property and forced relocation....the size or number of governments aren't the problem right now. 20% unemployment.

I do not think you need forced seizures and relocations ... The Adirondack Plan is a good example, perhaps. New York decided at a certain point to create a massive mountain park. They decided to start buying up private holdings in the 1890s, and it is a process that continues today. Nobody who lives on their property is forced to give it up, and there are still a few centennial families with small cabins up there, a rustic environment even if you have to deal with hikers and canoeists wandering onto your property from time to time. That might be a good model for greenbelting, and it would likely take at least 100 years.

Perhaps actually paying the true cost of things would drive consolidation? Maybe that is what we are seeing now?

Yes, I think that, given changing lifestyle tastes, trends in homebuying, fuel costs and materials costs are all going to influence people to settle more densely in the coming decades. It will cost more to heat homes, and homes will become smaller. It will cost more to move products and people, so products and people will be in closer proximity. Providing transportation choices will be a big part of this, so people won't have to drive everywhere and every city won't need to build parking garages. It is indeed happening right now. In fact, the people who are leaving our first- and second-ring suburbs aren't moving farther out so much as they are moving away.

How will regionalism help? Well, since growth isn't an option anymore, we can find ways to retrench the region intelligently, offering vibrant urban environments, attractive first- and second-ring environments, and try to rein it in. But it must proceed based on the idea that the engine of the region is our central city, Detroit. We must be willing to spend money to provide services in the city, understanding that much of the growth will be there. And the process of retrofitting our suburban environments, tweaking zoning and code restrictions, will benefit the suburbs a great deal.

What makes one place more viable than another. Particularly well-equipped places will have transportation choices, nightlife, walkability and bikability, and a sense of place and history. Detroit and most of its inner ring suburbs tend to have that. As for Hazel Park, it has been hit hard by job losses [[those collars are blue for a reason), but might it not also have something to do with that sense of place? The interchangeability of those small bungalows? The broad-brush zoning? Or, ultimately, the way a small "city" like Hazel Park is forced to compete with 100-odd other "cities" for the same pool of residents? There's plenty to think about there.

[Mikeg]

It's just as much a factor of DEMOGRAPHICS, DEMOGRAPHICS, DEMOGRAPHICS that the growth in housing in SE Michigan exceeded the growth in population.

Too many posters on this forum tend to live in denial of the fact that since the end of WWII, the number of families per dwelling and the number of people per family have steadily gone down. Both of those factors can explain some of the "depopulation" of areas with the highest densities in 1950 as well as why there would be a need for additional housing units over time, even with a stable total population.

But it's so much easier to ignore those facts and blame it on a lack of regional government with its promise of "intelligent planning", "smart growth policies", etc. - particularly if you believe in the notion that more government control is the answer to all of our problems. Yeah, the same kind of government planning and decision-making that brought I-75 and I-94 into Detroit and made Detroit water available to communities throughout 8 SE Michigan counties.

[Detroitnerd]

Denial sure do die hard.

[milesdriven]

If gainful employment were bountiful in SE Michigan, we wouldn't be having this discussion right now.