Detroit weather forcasters

[jgavrile]

I am getting pretty tired of sensational weather forcasts by Detroits TV stations, just to get their ratings higher. They have really been missing the ball this summer with all these "Breaking News "bullcrap weather predictions that don't come to pass. With all this high dollar radar and crap that they brag about, they still can't tell if its gonna rain??
Give us back Sonny Elliot.
They keep putting on all these threatening forecasts and ruining plans that people have for the weekend or for the day.
I want to tell them that a storm that is going across over in Flint is not Metro Detroit and that they should define the area that is really going to have the storm.
I am wondering if others are starting to feel the same way about them??
They SUCK!

[lilpup]

don't watch them, use these instead:

http://www.intellicast.com/National/...x?animate=true

http://www.weather.com/outlook/healt...urbyhour/48201


enough info on those two sites for anything you need

[Magnatomicflux]

I hear ya....but I'm happy for even that much. In Windsor, if you watch the weather network it's sooooooo far off. Their doppler seems like it's first generation, they NEVER include Windsor in a forcast, half the time we arn't even on the map! Of course, Canada does end at London so I'm not sure why they'd report about us If we are on it, they stand infront of us to talk about Toronto!
When the bad crap actually comes our way I thank my lucky stars I have Detroit next door. When the tornados came thru a while ago and destroyed Leamington, the weather network was saying nothing.In fact, aside from the red bar at the bottom of the screen saying there was sever weather....behind it, the station was giving Windsors local current weather report. It read "light T showers". Fox 2 on the other hand was on the ball all night, even warning people in Amherstburg to get their collective asses underground. No commercials, no effing around.
So....ya, my plans get screwed right up too because of me watching Detroit weather reports, but they are far more accurate than anything I can get here.

Plus, I'm no expert....but I think our geographic location and all this water seem to break things up around us....Windsor anyways. Ever notice how a huge cell will be headed right at us and right before it hits the river it splits up goes around Windsor and comes back together in the county? I don't know...maybe I'm seeing things

[Blueidone]

Sorry...I disagree. I would prefer to be told that there is a possibility of bad weather and have it not happen, than to have no warning and get caught in a bad storm.

My former brother-in-law was Naval weatherman. He explained how complicated predicting the weather is. They go by patterns and do the best they can, but they cannot...no matter how much equipment they have...completely predict what is going to happen.

In my mind, forewarned is forearmed.

[313WX]

Sorry...I disagree. I would prefer to be told that there is a possibility of bad weather and have it not happen, than to have no warning and get caught in a bad storm.

My former brother-in-law was Naval weatherman. He explained how complicated predicting the weather is. They go by patterns and do the best they can, but they cannot...no matter how much equipment they have...completely predict what is going to happen.

In my mind, forewarned is forearmed.

Their general forecast is always right.

The problem is they're making a prediction for large areas, and we all know how drastically weather conditions can change from one town to the next in Metro Detroit. Today was a pretty good example. The Tri Cities & East Side got a real thumping today while much of Oakland County didn't even see a drop of rain. In part this was due to all the cloud cover which was left over from whatever storms took place out west last night. While predicting large scale weather patterns is easy as pie, predicting any effects mesoscale events may have on it is like throwing a pie in the sky.

The potential was certainly there for a much bigger severe weather event than what took place, and the same people bitching about the over sensationalizing would have been the same ones bitching if a tornado ripped through their home and the weather man didn't warn them about it.

[Philbo]

I'm a weather buff and I think they partially give these dire forcasts to boost thier viewership. How many times do we hear how " lucky we were" when thier forcasts were wrong. Maybe they are relying on computers and high Tech. too much.

[313WX]

Plus, I'm no expert....but I think our geographic location and all this water seem to break things up around us....Windsor anyways. Ever notice how a huge cell will be headed right at us and right before it hits the river it splits up goes around Windsor and comes back together in the county? I don't know...maybe I'm seeing things

Yes, our location does play some effect too.

The reason it may seem cells initially die off as they approach Detroit and re-develop as they cross over into Canada is because of the dominant west winds off the Irish & northern Oakland County hills which produces a downsloping flow around across the Metro area and that effectively chokes off whatever updraft a thunderstorm has.

The other reason of course is whatever localized cooling effects a onshore flow from the lakes have. While thunderstorms need plenty of moisture [[which the lakes provide), they need strongly heated moisture, and the lake/land temperature difference can sometimes range from 5 to 50 degrees [[depending on the time of year).

[Searay215]

I don't listen to the TV or radio stations....they are just trying to get rating. When I was a kid it was a storm, now its a weather alert or severe weather....bull. Just give us the weather and make it good.
I use NOAA on my computer
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/
and on my smart phone I use the Weather Channel with radar.

[313WX]

I'm a weather buff and I think they partially give these dire forcasts to boost thier viewership. How many times do we hear how " lucky we were" when thier forcasts were wrong. Maybe they are relying on computers and high Tech. too much.

If anything, computers have drastically improved the art of weather forecasting. We've come a long way from those freak snowstorms Sonny Eliot would miss out on regularly...

As stated before, their forecast is technically never wrong. It will indeed rain somewhere in their forecast area or somebody will see sunny skies somewhere in the forecast area. That's why when they do give a forecast they also provide the probability of precipitation in any given area.

Oh what the hell, meteorologists simply have a thankless job. They're damned if they do and damned if they don't!

[313WX]

And to be quite honest, from my personal experience, Detroit's weather forecasts are quite simplified and underhyped compared to most major cities.

[Trumpeteer]

I'm sorry they're all called the "Severe Weather Center" or something like that. They spend countless minutes tracking rain counties away! EVERY weather person gets a hard on the second they can report anything close to an actual severe weather situation. It's amazing that Sonny Elliott could seemingly predict rain/storms with the very basic instruments he has/had while the new experts can't look out the window and say if it's raining or not.

[Buy American]

There is not one weather forecaster in Detroit who is accurate.

If you don't like the weather in Michigan, wait 5 minutes!

[313WX]

There is not one weather forecaster in Detroit who is accurate.

If you don't like the weather in Michigan, wait 5 minutes!

Well first of all, they say that everywhere.

Secondly, Michigan is a mighty big state. It can be snowing plus -5*F in Marquette and sunny plus 90*F in Monroe [[all totally possble)? Besides, there's rarely any significant change in weather ANYWHERE in the world within 5 minutes.

[Meddle]

They spend countless minutes tracking rain counties away!

And what if you're in one of those other counties, or have family there?

TV stations cover hundreds of square miles. They don't just forecast for the city of Detroit and they don't have the ability to tailor their signal to broadcast certain information to certain areas. It would be great if they could show breaking weather alerts to Pontiac and no where else if the threat is there, or to Ann Arbor or any other specific location, but it just doesn't work that way. If they need to alert Romulus to severe weather, the broadcast goes to all viewers.

That said, there is a HUGE difference between stations and even between on-air talent on the same station. We have three major stations where I am. One [[CBS/CW) does fairly well over the large area and focuses on specific cells that pose a threat. The second [[ABC), but least significant for my specific location does exceptionally well in severe weather events for their home area. They'll drop everything else and go live for as long as the threat persists, sometimes for hours. Their Chief Met really seems to be on top of things when necessary. The third station [[NBC) which is supposed to be the primary station in my market is a total waste. Their weathercast is so full of buzzwords, slogans, catch-phases and mottos, you can't hardly pick out the actual forecast. The Chief Met is a totally flaked out bimbo who I have no respect for at all.

[shipwatcher]

...
Plus, I'm no expert....but I think our geographic location and all this water seem to break things up around us....Windsor anyways. Ever notice how a huge cell will be headed right at us and right before it hits the river it splits up goes around Windsor and comes back together in the county? I don't know...maybe I'm seeing things

I've noticed that too. I Love it. I can sit and watch the storms roll by across the river, and sometimes not even get rained on. Of course, hearing later that the countryside to the east got ripped apart isn't so much fun... but still, fascinated by the river weather patterns

[CLAUDE G]

When I was a kid, I used to watch the weather everynight in the winter time and would hope that we had a big snow storm that would cancel school.

When it comes to snow, here is what I learned...

1-3 Inches, usually means a dusting

3-6 Inches, usually means an inch

6-9 Inches, usually means 3 inches

9-12 Inches, usually means 6

14 Inches or more, usually means we will get that amount or more and school will be cancelled.

What would really piss the crap out of me is that I went to Grosse Pointe schools, and we had a better chance of school being cancelled due to a water main break than we did for weather. I remember one year back around 1990 we had 12 inches of snow and they announced over the PA that we should be proud that we where the only school district open in the state.

But because of that, I rarely watch the weather anymore. I usually just DVR the news anyways so I can skip past the weather forcast. Its a waste of time and is never accurate.

[ja!mz]

For snowfall predictions I use this formula: Whatever the lowest amount predicted is, say 1-3 inches, divide the 1st number in half...1/2 inch will fall....LOL try it next winter and see.....

[Ed Golick]

http://www.detroitkidshow.com/weather_man.htm

[littlebuddy]

313WX, interesting thoughts on how the Detroit weather is affected by the terrain. I wouldn't have thought that there was much effect, not like living east of the Rockies or west of them. Thanks

[TKshreve]

Anyone think there is an uptick in sketchy weather this summer?

Tornados in Dundee and another city down that way already. Seems like we've had a lot of scattered showers/storms this summer as well. Not to mention it's been very hot, unlike last summer.

Oh....... did we want to talk about the weather, or was everyone just being pleasant?

[Bobl]

I just go to the weather underground site, read the forecast, look at the radar, and move on. The local TV channels are silly in their coverage, sometimes reporting from several neighborhoods on a winter snowfall or spring thunderstorm...

[313WX]

Anyone think there is an uptick in sketchy weather this summer?

Tornados in Dundee and another city down that way already. Seems like we've had a lot of scattered showers/storms this summer as well. Not to mention it's been very hot, unlike last summer.

Oh....... did we want to talk about the weather, or was everyone just being pleasant?

La Nina, and this is all typical weather for Metro Detroit in one. The jet streams sets up further to the NW which leaves us in the tropical/unstable part of it. The slight uptick in tornadoes is probably all associated with the fact that we're still trying scour out the after-effects of that cooler than normal air from the past few years [[-NAO/Greenland Block). We've pretty much have a 1988/1967/1978/1995 hybrid summer thus far [[all of which were La Ninas).

Last summer was an anomaly. It's highly unlikely we'll see a summer that cold and inactive weather wise again in our lifetime.

[bartock]

313WX, interesting thoughts on how the Detroit weather is affected by the terrain. I wouldn't have thought that there was much effect, not like living east of the Rockies or west of them. Thanks

I've always been of the belief that there is some jet stream or something that somehow makes the E-W section of I-75 in Troy [[roughly Crooks exit to Square Lake exit) a N-S dividing line between rain and snow, good weather and bad and vice versa, depending on the day and season.

[Trumpeteer]

And what if you're in one of those other counties, or have family there?

Then call them to get inside. Please note that I said "RAIN" not severe weather.

[313WX]

Then call them to get inside. Please note that I said "RAIN" not severe weather.

Rain can technically lead to severe weather too [[Flash Flooding).

That said, then just turn off yor TV if you don't want to hear or see it. I'd rather the weather man take as much time as they need to save someone's life than satisfy some selfish people who only want to see some show that will be re-ran later. Weather forecasting is apart of the media which is there to inform us if something's going to impact our lives.

Hell, sport reports are far more pointless than weather reports. A game is a game, someone's going to lose and someone's going to win [[who cares?).