Population of City of Detroit

[renf]

Yesterday the Census Bureau released their July 1, 2009 estimate for the city of Detroit and for all other incoporated places. The estimate for Detroit is 910,200. This implies a loss of just 1700 from July 1, 2008 and 40,000 from census data 2000.

Decade Pop loss in city of Detroit according to census
1950s 170,000
1960s 159,000
1970s

[renf]

Completion of last message about population change in city of Detroit

Decade Population loss in city of Detroit
1950s 170,000
1960s 159,000
1970s 308,000
1980s 175,000
1990s 77,000
2000 to 2009 40,000

[Hermod]

Judging from Google Maps and the aerial views, either Detroiters are really doubled up in their homes or the census bureau has done some creative accounting. My own instincts would put it somewhere around 700,000.

[maxx]

Judging from Google Maps and the aerial views, either Detroiters are really doubled up in their homes or the census bureau has done some creative accounting. My own instincts would put it somewhere around 700,000.

Maybe their estimating the number of people living under the overpasses.

[Retroit]

These numbers don't match those of the U.S. Census website which shows an estimated population of 808,398 for 2006-2008.

http://factfinder.census.gov

[iheartthed]

Judging from Google Maps and the aerial views, either Detroiters are really doubled up in their homes or the census bureau has done some creative accounting. My own instincts would put it somewhere around 700,000.

Your own instincts? Out of curiosity... When was the last time you were in the city of Detroit?

[Danny]

So for according the factual data from U.S. Census. The estimated population for the Detroit from 2006 to 2008 is 797,131 and declining. However there are some residents in Detroit that have not being counted. Therefore my estimated population for Detroit is over 820,000.

[professorscott]

Judging from Google Maps and the aerial views, either Detroiters are really doubled up in their homes or the census bureau has done some creative accounting. My own instincts would put it somewhere around 700,000.

Well, I would trust the United States Bureau of the Census over someone browsing the internet on their home computer. Regardless, though, this number is just an annual estimate; the most reliable number we'll get is the one coming out next year as the result of the decennial census currently under way.

[Hermod]

Your own instincts? Out of curiosity... When was the last time you were in the city of Detroit?

2008. I have quite a bit of family in the area.

[English]

This is great news! If Detroit is anywhere over 900,000, the last decade wasn't as awful as we've all been led to believe. Perhaps the great exodus from the ghettohoods has been partly offset by new residents in what I call the "named neighborhoods"...

Or perhaps Detroit census officials are still counting those of us who've left! After all, we opine about the state of the city so often until maybe we've fooled innocent government workers into thinking we're residents!

[[*cue ominous campy music* Dun-dun-DUN!!!)

[Hermod]

Well, I would trust the United States Bureau of the Census over someone browsing the internet on their home computer. Regardless, though, this number is just an annual estimate; the most reliable number we'll get is the one coming out next year as the result of the decennial census currently under way.

Is the census a "hard count" or have they this time been given permission to do "statistical adjustments to predicted under counts"?

[Meddle]

I don't believe 910K. The numbers would have to cooked well done to get that.

[Gsgeorge]

Judging from Google Maps and the aerial views, either Detroiters are really doubled up in their homes or the census bureau has done some creative accounting. My own instincts would put it somewhere around 700,000.

HA! Wow, this is funny. Some guy browsing Google Maps who hasn't stepped foot in the city in two years just starts throwing out numbers like he's the Census Bureau GIS specialist for Wayne County. Your instincts must be good enough to know exactly how many people are in every satellite image on the map, regardless of whether you can actually see them or not, identify all the buildings that are residential or have people living in them, then know which homes are abandoned, which are vacant, which are occupied, etc, then add those numbers all up... Wow! I wish I had those instincts that allowed me to determine population from Google Maps photos. Pardon my crudeness here, but my instincts have only really told me when to flee, fight, or f***.

Hermod seems to just be reiterating what we've all been saying for years [[not to mention what the news reports have been saying), which is that Detroit's population has probably fallen below 800,000.

But I would not be surprised if the census found that more single whites & young professionals [[black and white) are moving into the city than in previous years... but they're not outpacing black families leaving the city to seek a better way of life in the suburbs or other states.

[bragaboutme]

I can believe the 910,200 number, more than any other number below that. There are alot of people still living in the city, contrary to popular belief. I think with the census push there were alot more people that were actually counted, they came to our door atleast three times to make sure we were counted.

[casscorridor]

Completion of last message about population change in city of Detroit

Decade Population loss in city of Detroit
1950s 170,000
1960s 159,000
1970s 308,000
1980s 175,000
1990s 77,000
2000 to 2009 40,000

I think this very clearly illustrates that the bottom is nearing for population loss. We can continue a very slow decline, and perhaps reach 700,000, but I doubt that. I don't think the population is less than 800,000. In fact, I'm pretty sure the census estimate is pretty close, 910,000. I don't see why so many people think they can make their own estimates, I mean, that is what the census is for! How could they be 200,000 people off? That is crazy! Just because you've seen some messed up blocks with no houses, or some blocks in recent years go abandoned doesn't mean that equals 200,000 person decline.

If next decade the decline is around 15-20,000 people, we can replace them all in Midtown alone, and be on tract toward zero population decline or even growth.

The goal should be population growth by 2020.

[kraig]

Yesterday the Census Bureau released their July 1, 2009 estimate for the city of Detroit and for all other incoporated places. The estimate for Detroit is 910,200. This implies a loss of just 1700 from July 1, 2008 and 40,000 from census data 2000.

Decade Pop loss in city of Detroit according to census
1950s 170,000
1960s 159,000
1970s

Are you sure they weren't saying that 1700 was the loss for that month?

[Carey]

I notice one of the big losers, in addition to the usual suspects of Detroit, Highland Park etc., is the Grosse Pointes. Does RenF have any theories about that? I know most of the older suburbs are losing population, but is GP's loss significant?

[Retroit]

I appreciate everyone's ability to pull numbers out of their ass, but would anyone care to provide a link that will substantiate their claims or those of renf?

[3rdDegreeBurns]

So for according the factual data from U.S. Census. The estimated population for the Detroit from 2006 to 2008 is 797,131 and declining. However there are some residents in Detroit that have not being counted. Therefore my estimated population for Detroit is over 820,000.

Danny, you're on to something here... What you are referencing is data from the American Community Survey [[ACS). This is a relatively new part of the Census that does rolling estimates of population, demographics, housing, etc... based on statistical samples. The ACS replaces the long-form of the regular census and was put in place due to the desire to get more accurate population statistics during the 12+ year gap between decentenial censuses. The ACS estimates are considered by many to be far superior to the standard US Census estimates [[which are based on the 100% count from the decentenial census and adjusted using very suspect techniques each year).

The figure you quoted is a three year average for the years 2006-2008. For small places [[under 65,000 people) this is the finest level of detail available. However, for large places like Detroit, the ACS releases estimates for each year. The 2008 ACS population estimate for the city of Detroit is 777,493 +/- 15,559 [[http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet...false&-format=). This means that based on a sample survey, the ACS can say with 90% confidence that the average population of Detroit was no less than 761,934 and no more than 793,052 in 2008. Of course, you could argue with the ACS sampling technique, but even if they are WAY off, we were nowhere near 900,000 in 2008.

An acquaintance of mine is an expect at modeling population statistics and his best estimate for the current population is 637,000. That number was based off of 267,000 households at 2.4 persons per household [[national average is 2.62). 267,000 households is consistent with ACS estimates and the recent survey of all City of Detroit parcels by Data Driven Detroit, University of Michigan's Taubman College, Community Legal Resources and others.

I suspect that Detroit's average is a bit higher than 2.4. The 777,493 number would put us at approximately 2.9 [[which seems high to me). 910,000 would put us over 3.4 persons per household [[seems way to high). So, my guess is that we are somewhere around 725,000 give or take 25,000 right now.

[neighbor]

I am guessing that when the census numbers come out a lot of you are going to be surprised at how low Detroit's population really is.

My estimate is that the census will be around 750,000

There are a ton more empty homes today that there were even 3 years ago.

[mwilbert]

In 2000 persons per household was 2.77. I wouldn't be surprised if some people were doubled up now as the economy is worse. So 2.9 doesn't seem that unlikely. I agree that 3.4 seems pretty improbable.

[Hermod]

Another sanity check would be to compare the total school population [[public, parochial, private, charter) to the census population for the 1940 through 2000 censuses [[censii?) and then do it for 2010. If you don't have a lot of kids, where is the population?

[313WX]

I'm really cracking up at some of you all's logic.

How can you judge how many people live in a city by the amount of empty houses? That method especially holds very little merit in a mortgage crisis, as those same people could have very easily been dispalced from their home and have now moved into already occupied apartments buildings or with relatives. Hell, honestly doing just that alone to calculate population count would make Detroit smaller than Nashville and maybe even Milwaukee. While Detroit has experienced a significant decline in the past 60 years, It's hard to believe we're the same size or smaller than those two cities.

The point is your conclusions have very little context. Yeah, I can play the "what if..." game too.

[iheartthed]

Another sanity check would be to compare the total school population [[public, parochial, private, charter) to the census population for the 1940 through 2000 censuses [[censii?) and then do it for 2010. If you don't have a lot of kids, where is the population?

No, that won't quite work either. Charter schools don't have districts and most are in the suburbs, even those whose student bodies are predominantly made up of Detroit residents.

[Hermod]

No, that won't quite work either. Charter schools don't have districts and most are in the suburbs, even those whose student bodies are predominantly made up of Detroit residents.

Does DPS pay for those charter students? Should be able to count them.