Census and Detroit's members of Congress

[noenaim]

I have seen here a few threads about John Conyers and Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick and all the controversies around them. I was thinking after the census this year I'm pretty sure that Michigan WILL be losing a seat in congress. That might mean Detroit will have just one Congressmen? One of them will have to go. I don't the details of how this is done,but it would make sense to combine the 13th and 14th district together. I don't know is there any other part of Michigan that have lost more people?

[Don K]

My guess is whichever party is in charge of redistricting [[or if there's split control), there will be two Detroit-based districts with black majorities - they'll just have to be extended into the burbs a bit more. If necessary, the redistricters could breach the 8 Mile Rd line and include all or part of Southfield, Oak Park, and Royal Oak Township.

Why am I so confident? I'm guessing the Dems wouldn't want to be seen as the ones eliminating a district represented by part of their voting base. And for the Reps, having a couple of black-majority districts makes gerrymandering easier, because it naturally clumps Dem voters in two districts with heavy Dem majorities, making it easier to create a large number of districts with relatively modest Rep majorities.

My guess is if the Dems are in charge [[fairly unlikely, as it would mean taking the Senate as well as holding the governorship), the most likely district to be eliminated would be 11th, running from Commerce Township to Belleville, through Novi, Northville, Plymouth, Livonia, Redford, Westland, and Canton). If the Reps are in charge, I would bet on the 9th [[roughly Waterford to Farmington Hills to a small part of Royal Oak to Rochester, including Pontiac, Bloomfield Township, Bloomfield Hills, and Birmingham). This is a marginal district now held by Dem Gary Peters. This assumes Peters survives his first re-election this year. If not, maybe the Reps could carve up Sander Levin's 12th [[far southeastern Oakland and Southwestern Macomb).

If there's split control [[i.e., the Dems hold the House but lose the Senate and/or the governorship), all bets are off. The last time this happened, I believe a Federal Court designed a plan because the House and Senate couldn't find a compromise.

[renf]

This year's census will lead to a loss of one congressional seat for Michigan. The Census Bureau's current estimate suggests that 9,945,000 will be counted in Michigan if people fulfill their constitutional duty and send back their census forms. Any count between 9,550,000 and 10, 300,000 will lead to a loss of one seat. Because of current economic conditions, there is little internal migration and little immigration from abroad. We hope that the complete count efforts of Governor Granholm and Mayor Bing will insure an accurate count but, if they are successful, the state's population will still be below 10.3 million. And even if very many households refuse to send back their census form, it is extremely unlikely that fewer than 9.5 million will be counted in Michigan.
The state legislature will determine congressional districts so this fall's election will be extremely important. In the past, legislators have tended to protect incumbants

[renf]

This year's census will lead to a loss of one congressional seat for Michigan. The Census Bureau's current estimate suggests that 9,945,000 will be counted in Michigan if people fulfill their constitutional duty and send back their census forms. Any count between 9,550,000 and 10,300,000 will lead to a loss of one seat. Because of current economic conditions, there is little internal migration and little immigration from abroad. We hope that the complete count efforts of Governor Granholm and Mayor Bing will insure an accurate count but, if they are successful, the state's population will still be below 10.3 million. And even if very many households refuse to send back their census form, it is extremely unlikely that fewer than 9.5 million will be counted in Michigan.
The state legislature will determine congressional districts so this fall's election will be extremely important. In the past, legislators have tended to protect incumbants

[DetroitPlanner]

I can't see how Michigan won't lose a seat either. Personally, I think we may be in danger of losing two because there is still growth in the SW States.

When this happens Dingell will need to move. The last census he lost half of Dearborn.

Its mind boggling to me how huge Stupak's district is.

Finally it will mean even less political power for our state.