Anticipated Adverse Census Results

[southsider]

Here's a post from '02 about the white population in Detroit. What do you think the upcoming census reports will show and how will it impact the city?

http://www.s4.brown.edu/cen2000/othe...2001-28-02.pdf

[iheartthed]

Not sure if the overall percentage of white residents has shifted significantly one way or the other. But when I was in the city over the holidays I noticed more white professionals living downtown. But this influx of white professionals downtown may be offset by white residents [[mainly working class) leaving other parts of the city. So who knows? I doubt the census is gonna change many perceptions about Detroit though. From what I have seen other places, it's usually the perceptions that change before the official stats.

[Stosh]

I'd worry less about the white residents. Of greater concern is residents, period.

[Route29]

I find this topic to be very interesting.
It's useful to consider that by now, if somebody was going to white flight, they probably would already have, since its been in full force for about 50 years now. However, many of the never-fled class are by now very elderly and many have surely died off. The white population of Detroit is much older than the black population.
Another interesting factor is middle-class black flight, dating back about 25 years.
Finally, whites in traditionally white areas [[Warrendale, Far East Side, Southwest) have fled in very recent years.
With the boomers already having fled, though, the younger generation of whites don't have the same segregation prejudices as their parent's generations, coupled with viewing city living much more favorably than the older generation.
Regardless, the city is going to post a massive drop in population.
What I find most distressing about this census is that no ethnicity will be included. Therefore places like Hamtramck and Warrendale for example - with Poles and Arabs - with be classified under the same white label with no differentiation. So places like Hamtramck and Dearborn are going to look lily white on the census!

[southsider]

I find this topic to be very interesting.
It's useful to consider that by now, if somebody was going to white flight, they probably would already have, since its been in full force for about 50 years now. However, many of the never-fled class are by now very elderly and many have surely died off. The white population of Detroit is much older than the black population.
Another interesting factor is middle-class black flight, dating back about 25 years.
Finally, whites in traditionally white areas [[Warrendale, Far East Side, Southwest) have fled in very recent years.
With the boomers already having fled, though, the younger generation of whites don't have the same segregation prejudices as their parent's generations, coupled with viewing city living much more favorably than the older generation.
Regardless, the city is going to post a massive drop in population.
What I find most distressing about this census is that no ethnicity will be included. Therefore places like Hamtramck and Warrendale for example - with Poles and Arabs - with be classified under the same white label with no differentiation. So places like Hamtramck and Dearborn are going to look lily white on the census!

Extremely interesting comment. Are you suggesting that ethnicity should be captured as well?

[jt1]

Not sure if the overall percentage of white residents has shifted significantly one way or the other. But when I was in the city over the holidays I noticed more white professionals living downtown. But this influx of white professionals downtown may be offset by white residents [[mainly working class) leaving other parts of the city. So who knows? I doubt the census is gonna change many perceptions about Detroit though. From what I have seen other places, it's usually the perceptions that change before the official stats.

How many of those white [[or black) professionals living downtown list Detroit as their real address. I know a very large number of people that list other addresses [[and will do so for the census) to save on auto insurance and/or avoid city income tax.

I would guess a significant number of people living in downtown/midtown and the surrounding areas live in the city but don't 'live' in the city if you know what I mean..

[Retroit]

I don't think the "black collective" of Detroit would find a decrease in the number of whites to be "adverse".

[mwilbert]

The point about the age disparity is very important. Right now, you have some younger whites in the city but they have a strong incentive to move if they get to the point where they have school-age kids. The older ones are getting pretty old--it will be interesting to see how many whites between 45 and 60 there are--I would guess very few.

[iheartthed]

The point about the age disparity is very important. Right now, you have some younger whites in the city but they have a strong incentive to move if they get to the point where they have school-age kids. The older ones are getting pretty old--it will be interesting to see how many whites between 45 and 60 there are--I would guess very few.

Yeah, but hopefully we're not talking about a static population here. Hopefully, when those 20-somethings move on to a more family oriented environment the city is able to attract younger 20-somethings to replace them... Like they do in other cities.

[iheartthed]

How many of those white [[or black) professionals living downtown list Detroit as their real address. I know a very large number of people that list other addresses [[and will do so for the census) to save on auto insurance and/or avoid city income tax.

I would guess a significant number of people living in downtown/midtown and the surrounding areas live in the city but don't 'live' in the city if you know what I mean..

Dunno, but I don't think census numbers are calculated by the address on your drivers license. If so, then count me as still living in Michigan, since I still hold MI license even after not having lived there for almost four years.

Instead, I think they use a combination of tax records, rental information, deeds, etc., to calculate populations. We're way to transient to rely on ID cards...

ETA: For instance, I know that during the census college students are counted as residents of the town where they are living/going to school, instead of their town of origin [[even if they are only temporary residents).

[Pcm]

This is the second race related post that I've stumbled on by you, southsider. I'm curious, do you study race, or are just interested?

[Retroit]

Dunno, but I don't think census numbers are calculated by the address on your drivers license. If so, then count me as still living in Michigan, since I still hold MI license even after not having lived there for almost four years.

Instead, I think they use a combination of tax records, rental information, deeds, etc., to calculate populations. We're way to transient to rely on ID cards...

ETA: For instance, I know that during the census college students are counted as residents of the town where they are living/going to school, instead of their town of origin [[even if they are only temporary residents).

Census doesn't care where your driver's license is from, nor tax records, deeds, etc. Heck, they don't even care if you're a citizen. They simply want to know how many people live at each address.

[MichMatters]

You know, I regularly follow estimates and demographics for the region, and quite frankly, I don't see the loss for Detroit in particular being much different than in the 90's simply because the city had already fallen so low in terms of wealth and poverty. Manufacturing -- in any significant number -- has long since left Detroit proper. In fact, to show the point, a far greater percentage of Grand Rapids, for instance, is employed in manufacturing than Detroit proper. This is not to mention that the economic downturn in the latter half of the decade actually reduced the ability to flee from the state, and that's actually backed up by the results of the Census estimates. It's certainly not like in the 90's when even the lower middle class could sell their homes at a minimal loss or even slight gain.

Truth is, the most drastic changes will have been in the suburbs and outstate because they had much further to fall from. I think Oakland County, in particular, will be surprising...in a bad way, when we see wealth and poverty numbers.

[mwilbert]

Yeah, but hopefully we're not talking about a static population here. Hopefully, when those 20-somethings move on to a more family oriented environment the city is able to attract younger 20-somethings to replace them... Like they do in other cities.

That would be the hope. My impression is that other cities have done a better job of attracting those people. Also, at the higher end of that range you would start to see empty-nesters in other cities. It would be interesting to see how many there are in Detroit.

[southsider]

This is the second race related post that I've stumbled on by you, southsider. I'm curious, do you study race, or are just interested?

Fine line between interested and study. I lived in Detroit for a few years and never quite experienced the racial dynamics that were present in the city and region. It was quite interesting to see and experience the debilitating effects of segregation and cross racial tension.

[EastsideAl]

I'm surprised to see southsider come back to this topic. Mostly he/she seems to like to start a thread by tossing out potentially racially divisive bombs - like the "black churches hurt Detroit" topic that Lowell very sensibly exiled to another section of the forum - and then sit back and watch the discussion never to return. There used to be a few more of these race-baiting types around here, which is one reason why I left this place alone for quite a while. Considering potential declines in the white population as being by definition "adverse," as the headline of this thread implies, really tells one a lot about where this poster is coming from.

[Danny]

Detroit 2010:

population 890,000.

84% black

4% white

0.3% asian

7% Hispanic

1% other

That's the way is going to be until Census 2020.

[Meddle]

I'll be surprised if it's over 750,000. If it is, the numbers are probably cooked.

[southsider]

I'm surprised to see southsider come back to this topic. Mostly he/she seems to like to start a thread by tossing out potentially racially divisive bombs - like the "black churches hurt Detroit" topic that Lowell very sensibly exiled to another section of the forum - and then sit back and watch the discussion never to return. There used to be a few more of these race-baiting types around here, which is one reason why I left this place alone for quite a while. Considering potential declines in the white population as being by definition "adverse," as the headline of this thread implies, really tells one a lot about where this poster is coming from.

The beauty of forums like this is the opportunity for people to speak candidly. I have no intentions of baiting forumers into divisive dialogue; however, I fully understand, appreciate and anticipate that by virtue of mentioning race in an open forum you invite bloggers to attack you personally and doing what we do oh so well in this country and that's dodging real problems. I'll raise threads of true interest to me on this forum for as long as I'm allowed to solicit feedback from the general public. I'll also give my honest opinion about topics of interest to me until I become one of those forumers who is rejected for speaking honestly.

[smudge pot]

What I find most distressing about this census is that no ethnicity will be included. Therefore places like Hamtramck and Warrendale for example - with Poles and Arabs - with be classified under the same white label with no differentiation. So places like Hamtramck and Dearborn are going to look lily white on the census!

Back in college, I was sitting at the snack table with a bunch of Arab buddies. I made a humorous crack about Arabs dating white girls. Went over like a lead balloon. I heard the whole history from Adam. Arabs think of themselves as white, and why shouldn't they? And why shouldn't we?

[MCP-001]

I see the overall population [[I really could care less if your black, white, etc.) falling big time.

This will cause Detroit to lose a seat in Congress.

This will also trigger many of the laws written specifically for Detroit in Lansing to be re-worded or nullified due insufficient population.

[Route29]

Back in college, I was sitting at the snack table with a bunch of Arab buddies. I made a humorous crack about Arabs dating white girls. Went over like a lead balloon. I heard the whole history from Adam. Arabs think of themselves as white, and why shouldn't they? And why shouldn't we?

Qualifiers such as "Many" or even "Most" would be appropriate, unless you presume to speak on behalf of all Arabs.

Many apparently disagree with you:
http://www.freep.com/article/2009121...he-2010-census

"'It's unfair because we are not treated as white in society and by the government, but we also don't qualify as minorities to get the benefits of some programs' such as minority contracts, said Imad Hamad, regional director of the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee."

Besides the obvious reasoning that using "white" or "Caucasian" with a broad brush nullifies any meaning or identity significance it may have carried, Arabs in particular, in the past 10 years especially, can probably vouch that they aren't treated like "basic white people" by the government or by many other Americans - many of whom I'm sure are also "Caucasian".

[DetroitPlanner]

Census doesn't care where your driver's license is from, nor tax records, deeds, etc. Heck, they don't even care if you're a citizen. They simply want to know how many people live at each address.

C'est vrai, not everyone drives or owns a house. One of the biggest problems however the census has is an undercounting of non-citizens, as many fear being found. Some of the places where folks have immigrated from have good reasons not to trust the govt.

Categorizing people by race or ethnicity is getting to be pointless. Hispanics can be white, black, native american or philipino. In the grand scheme of things its getting to be less important as the world gets smaller.

[smudge pot]

Qualifiers such as "Many" or even "Most" would be appropriate, unless you presume to speak on behalf of all Arabs.

Many apparently disagree with you:
http://www.freep.com/article/2009121...he-2010-census

"'It's unfair because we are not treated as white in society and by the government, but we also don't qualify as minorities to get the benefits of some programs' such as minority contracts, said Imad Hamad, regional director of the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee."

Imad Hamad wants us to start printing-up race cards for Arabs. Can't you see this? And who gives a sh*t anyway? I have no problem with the idea of living in Dearborn, or Hamtramck. Ever heard of Farid Al Atrash? Thought so. You're boring me. Go squeeze some pimples.

[SteadySky]

How about we have X number of males and X number of females in the city and call it done. We could stop tracking ethic issues. I like that idea. Go with male and female Americans and drop the rest of the stuff and all the preferences, caveats, special listings, etc.