Detroit Murder Toll Rises Slightly, But Positive News, Too

[cman710]

Detroit murder toll rises slightly to 379

But homicides declined 20% in last 6 months of 2009

Charlie LeDuff and George Hunter / The Detroit News

Detroit -- Murders in Michigan's largest city increased slightly last year, according to preliminary figures released Wednesday by Detroit Police, although the numbers show that homicides dropped dramatically in the second half of 2009.
There were 379 homicides in Detroit last year, up from 375 in 2008. But from July to December last year, there were 179 -- a 20 percent decline from the same period in 2008.
Police officials attribute the drop to a change in the way homicides are investigated, more police on the street and the use of computer-driven data to target crime hot spots.
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For the rest of the article, click here.

[cman710]

A few thoughts about the article:

1. I think the fact that the murder rate dropped 20% in the second half of the year is great. Given that they have reinstituted data-driven policing [[see comment below) and changed other tactics, I think there is a good chance that this drop was not coincidental.

2. The fact that Chief Warren has pushed the department back to data-driven policing is incredibly significant. Seriously, who thought it was a good idea to stop using crime data to help allocate police resources? I given Warren credit for pursuing this approach, as I think it may result in significant crime reduction in the long-term.

3. The fact that the homicide closure rate has increased from 28% to 60% is significant for several reasons. First, the 28% figure was embarassing to the city, and only added to a sense that anything goes in Detroit without consequences following. Second, this figure demonstrates clearly that the Detroit police are not a bunch of incompetents who cannot do their jobs. Rather, they have solved murders at a rate roughly equal to the national average. I hope this continues going forward. Third, I think it sends a great signal that people who are committing murders are getting caught. While this is difficult to measure, I do think that in the long-run, higher apprehension rates will deter people from committing crimes.

4. I am cautiously optimistic. I do not think that any of these numbers guarantee further progress, but I do think the situation had become so bleak that small amounts of competence and allocation of resources could have a significant impact on crime rates.

I am viewing this positively, but I am sure that some of our naysayers will think otherwise. So, what do you think?

[jt1]

Detroit murder toll rises slightly to 379

But homicides declined 20% in last 6 months of 2009

Charlie LeDuff and George Hunter / The Detroit News

Detroit -- Murders in Michigan's largest city increased slightly last year, according to preliminary figures released Wednesday by Detroit Police, although the numbers show that homicides dropped dramatically in the second half of 2009.
There were 379 homicides in Detroit last year, up from 375 in 2008. But from July to December last year, there were 179 -- a 20 percent decline from the same period in 2008.
Police officials attribute the drop to a change in the way homicides are investigated, more police on the street and the use of computer-driven data to target crime hot spots.
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For the rest of the article, click here.

I think that we will see crime stats increase for two reasons, regardless of whether or not crime goes up, down or remains the same:

• Evans has stated that he intends to be honest in reporting numbers. I am happy to hear this even if the numbers go up. Until DPD leadership is honest about the crime stats they will not be effective in reducing it
• If Evans does a good job, gets the bad guys and fosters a better relationship with the community citizens will be more likely to report crime. Numbers may increase even if the actual crime does not.

I’d love to see the crime stats decrease but I want them to decrease because it is reflective of what is actually happening, not due to manipulation of stats.

[Johnlodge]

I have heard Chief Kitchen of the Ferndale police making a point to express how much more cooperation there has been between local departments since Evans took over.

[cman710]

Johnlodge, interesting point. Given the limitations on the Detroit police force, and the fact that some sort of regional policing system remains unlikely to be created, and that crime is not limited to the borders of the city, I think that efforts to cooperate with other police departments can only help Detroit's fight against crime.

jt1, I also think you make a good point. I would not mind seeing the crime numbers going up if it means accurate, honest reporting of the problem. However, I do think that since public safety has been handled so poorly, that some concerted action can make a big difference in the numbers. Hopefully that is what we are seeing now.

[daddeeo]

What I'd like to see and hear is faster response time by the cops. Figures lie and liars figure.

[jt1]

What I'd like to see and hear is faster response time by the cops. Figures lie and liars figure.

I think we can all agree with that.
Evans appears to have moved for officers to the streets which hopefully will help.
I think we also [[if we haven’t already) look very closely at the option of having civilians do the non-police work [[office work, clerical work, ect)
The pay for clerical workers if much less and it will move the trained, skilled officers to the field
Seems pretty much every other large city in the country does it

"Figures lie and liars figure" - I like it.

[cman710]

While we would all agree that the response time needs to be better, I am not convinced that shortening response times will have as big an impact as proactively using officers in high crime areas. After all, police response frequently occurs after a crime has already occurred, and the primary aim is to prevent crime in the first-place.

Of course, the two go hand in hand, though. By having more officers in high crime areas, response times should improve, too.

[Johnlodge]

I'm sure they would benefit greatly from more cooperation from the public, but then of course they have their own work to do in getting the public's trust. This is why it seems like "outreach" efforts like walking beat cops and even the mounted Wayne County officers which a lot of people have put a lot of their own time and money into saving might be useful in gaining the public trust.

[MichMatters]

A more better reporting of the numbers by the Detroit Free Press:

Detroit tallied 379 homicides in 2009 -- four more than it did in 2008 -- despite an 18% decrease in slayings in the second half of last year, Police Chief Warren Evans said Wednesday.

In 2008, there were 375 homicides. Of those, 342 were deemed criminal rather than justifiable. Last year, Detroit saw 364 criminal slayings [[379 total), an increase of about 6%.

The tally means that, on average, one person a day was killed without legal justification in Detroit -- a sobering number, Evans said, but he pointed to the year-end dip as hope that 2010 might fare better.


"We've had a reduction every month of the last six months," he told the Free Press. "We're on a downward spiral."

Note: The FBI collects only non-justifiable homicides for its annual Uniform Crime Report. It seems that while Detroit has been suspect in reporting, before, that they've always reported the unadjusted number [[i.e. always including "justifiable" homicides). Many cities have never reported justifiable homicides as part of their raw count.

[Whitehouse]

That's a hefty figure. I cannot relate to the situation in Detroit. In 2008 the murder toll in the Netherlands was 176.... on a population of 16 million people.

[lilpup]

That's a hefty figure. I cannot relate to the situation in Detroit. In 2008 the murder toll in the Netherlands was 176.... on a population of 16 million people.

Looking at raw numbers New York City's tally was 516 in 2008 on a population of around 14 million. In 1990 that total was 2,262.

[EastsideAl]

That's a hefty figure. I cannot relate to the situation in Detroit. In 2008 the murder toll in the Netherlands was 176.... on a population of 16 million people.

Hefty in some ways maybe, but still well below the all time Detroit record of 714 in 1974. Or even the 615 back in 1991.

[dookie joe]

A more better reporting of the numbers by the Detroit Free Press:
.

Do you work for the Free Press or something? How is that story a "much better reporting of the numbers"? Both stories say essentially the same thing, except the Freep story doesn't explain what's driving the drop in homicides.

[Rideron]

Anything anything showing improvement is very good news.

[luckycar]

There have been about 20,000 homicides in the City of Detroit since 1970.Positive news?Looking at a graph of these numbers made me sick.Think of all the wasted lives and families torn apart.Think about all the lost souls locked up.Think about all the death from drugs that isn't in these figures.Positive news....I'm going back to bed.
Is it any wonder the Detroit we all remember can never be again.ghosts of 20,000+ souls haunting us all.Positive news.What planet have these "leaders" been living on?

[mwilbert]

Looking at raw numbers New York City's tally was 516 in 2008 on a population of around 14 million. In 1990 that total was 2,262.

That homicide figure is for New York City itself, which has about 8 million people. Still almost a full order of magnitude better than Detroit though.