Have We* Hit the Bottom?

**Lowell** · January-03-10, 12:26 PM

After reading the thread with the Washington Post essay, I am wondering what is the consensus of this forum on this question.

So I am asking your subjective opinions of whether or not you think *we [meaning just international metropolitan Detroit - and not the rest of Michigan and Ontario or our countries] have economically gone as low as we will go in this cycle? Yes means we will go no lower; no means we haven't reached bottom and have further to go down before we bottom out.

**EMG** · January-03-10, 12:30 PM

No. [[And despite your specification, I do NOT apply that "no" to just Detroit - I think that there are many areas of not just Detroit and not even just Michigan but of the entire country - that haven't seen the worst of it yet).

**FlyByDon** · January-03-10, 12:44 PM

Absolutely not... Not in the D. With the city's mainstay being the auto industries. Detroit has for many years put all it's eggs in one basket. Now that the chicken has died??

**Whitehouse** · January-03-10, 12:55 PM

I'm feeling this question came from Fox news.... Every option is negative.

**iheartthed** · January-03-10, 01:16 PM

I said "no". Detroit [[City, Metro and well, Michigan in general) is on step 4 of the KÃ¼bler-Ross model [[denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance). The metro area seems to be nearing the end of the 4th cycle and start of 5th, but I'm not aware of any coherent plan for Detroit to fight on to live another day.

I mean, it's one thing to have the national media writing your obituary and we can all cry about how unfair and east coast biased it sounds. But it's another when the local leadership really can't speak up a solid plan to right the ship, after 10 years of facing the fire. It has a real western Europe circa WW2 feel to it, and not just because of the buildings in ruin.

[[Did anyone read that former Auto Czar's account of the mood at GM when the gov't had to step in and take it over? GM's "plans" were not based in reality, and instead based on hypotheticals that would likely never materialize. Like they had completely forgotten how to react as a business to a dynamic marketplace. There are a lot of parallels between his account of GM, and the my observations of leadership throughout Metropolitan Detroit.)

I guess that is the difference between Chicago and Detroit -- Chicago knows how to swim. And it's not like the Detroit area has suddenly found itself in this position after the Great Recession; the area had been losing thousands of jobs per year in the years leading up to 2008. So count me among the pessimists, but do know that I am praying for your survival.

**Patrick** · January-03-10, 01:40 PM

I guess that is the difference between Chicago and Detroit -- Chicago knows how to swim

Detroit and SE Michigan never bothered to learn how to swim because we had a nice big yacht called the SS Big 3. No one could have imagined that it would sink.

Buy American · January-03-10, 01:42 PM

When/if Detroit goes into receivership is when Detroit will hit rock bottom.

**iheartthed** · January-03-10, 01:57 PM

Originally Posted by Patrick

Detroit and SE Michigan never bothered to learn how to swim because we had a nice big yacht called the SS Big 3. No one could have imagined that it would sink.

No one in Detroit could have imagined that it would sink.

**iheartthed** · January-03-10, 02:00 PM

Originally Posted by Buy American

When/if Detroit goes into receivership is when Detroit will hit rock bottom.

These types of comments are also why my pessimism remains high. The futile attempts to differentiate the fate of Michigan from that of Detroit.

**Patrick** · January-03-10, 02:05 PM

No one in Detroit could have imagined that it would sink.

The way I see it is that Det and SE Michigan are tied together. Sadly, people like L. Brooks won't admit that.

**Corn.Bot** · January-03-10, 02:17 PM

We have not hit bottom because no one in power, political or corporate, seems to have learned any form of lesson from this so-called recession. They all seem to be treading water waiting for the economy to get back to normal. As if this was not going to be the new normal.

IMO, and only mine: we are in the midst of The Great Leveling. So many believed a global economy would bring third-world countries up to "our" standard of living, never considering that such a feat was impossible and unsustainable. Sure, some are coming up, but no one considered that in reality, we would have to head downward.

**jtf1972** · January-03-10, 02:23 PM

How much worse could it get? Receivership would be a step up. For the city to deteriorate from the current condition it would practically need to be entirely run by the trifecta of Jackson/Moroun/Illitch and have the only remaining property [[parking lots) constantly having "accidental" fires.

Detroit needs to do many things different, but there are some signs things may be looking up. Frankly, there are signs here in that the real estate market has hit a point where people who never would have considered Detroit are looking at the opportunities available.

**iheartthed** · January-03-10, 02:38 PM

Originally Posted by Patrick

The way I see it is that Det and SE Michigan are tied together. Sadly, people like L. Brooks won't admit that.

Oh I agree with you, by "Detroit" I meant Metroit.

**Patrick** · January-03-10, 02:41 PM

Even proplr on the west side of the State think that they are immune from Detroit. I guess in their Hoekstra-like dreams they may be, but not in reality.

**mwilbert** · January-03-10, 03:00 PM

No. The income losses of the past few years haven't percolated through the system yet. People who have lost jobs are still living off unemployment and savings; those resources are not going to last forever. Then those folks will have to make further adjustments to their standard of living, or leave, or both.

**luckycar** · January-03-10, 04:34 PM

The reality of " the bottom" will hit when the benefits run out.,as mwilbert has stated.In past downturns,workers had some sense that they would be called back,job banked or the need for their services would put bread on the table.That and those other "ships" have set sail.Our leaders have talked about diversity in jobs,moving to a new future and that ever popular new business model.All which happened elsewhere.So now we are left with catching up with other parts of the newly developed world,with a less educated workforce and criminal element that is out of control.L. Brooks and West MI have little to do with our situation.
But like most of us ,we can't leave.So what to do?Stay and change things......

**Fury13** · January-03-10, 05:22 PM

The bottom comes in about 2011-2012...

**casscorridor** · January-03-10, 05:48 PM

All those people who said Michigan is a one-state depression were wrong. The auto-industry continues to a key pillar in the United States economy, and therefore a crippling of the auto industry would result in the crippling of most of the Midwest, resulting in massive economic crisis across the entire country. What other industries does the United States even have anymore? Software? There once was a day when main street ruled over wall street, but those days are gone. There once was a day where we actually made things, instead of just shuffling them around and having them made somewhere else.

By no means should we regress in time. Technological breakthroughs have allowed more democracy, more control over production and consumption by the workers and consumers themselves, but the power eliets have not. They use technology to maintain their power, to continue exploiting workers and their labor--to maintain an unjust economic system. The days before "disaster capitalism" are not days we should return to, for capitalism itself is the problem. These problems have only now been manifested on such mangnificent scales that the fate of the planet is in jepordy. Our economic model is literally killing the planet. And it is killing Detroit too.

What is a system where the world's largest corporation occupied skyscrapers that looked out into the depressed city in the country? What is a system where 20% of the world's population uses 80% of its resources? What is a country that has 1% of the world's population and nearly a quarter of its prisoners? That considers giving used stuff a second chance on life, but not people. That gives a leg up to corporations but not the everyday worker.

The difference between Chicago and Detroit is not that Chicago knows how to swim, the difference is that Chicago is in a shallow pool, while Detroit is in the open ocean. But don't take that analogy too far, because under the surface Chicago is not the ideal city it is meant out to be. Youth violence and gang violence is a far worse problem there than in Detroit. It is still segregated, with massive inequalities, environmental racism, corruption, etc. The dozens of skyscrapers under construction there does not mean the city is any "better." Our ruling class, and middle class simply choose to locate outside the city. The problem is that we live in a system that lets people sink or swim. That says we can have throw away people, just as we have throw away resources.

We've seen the headliens: 30,000 layoffs. 40,000 layoffs. This isn't unique to Detroit. Can faith be renewed in capitalism? Will something worse take its place? Or will people be brave and image a world where we don't leave people behind, where everyone has what they need, where we don't destroy the planet. That world simply isn't possible under this system, and we need to start thinking outside it.

Retroit · January-03-10, 06:02 PM

I bet the Chinese don't think "capitalism itself is the problem". Detroit became a great city because of Capitalism.

**313WX** · January-03-10, 07:14 PM

It's hard to believe there's even a bottom if these types of people represent the majority in Metropolitan Detroit.

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=15944

Retroit · January-03-10, 09:13 PM

Originally Posted by 313WX

It's hard to believe there's even a bottom if these types of people represent the majority in Metropolitan Detroit.

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=15944

I thought this quote was quite pertinent:

It would better the city if people stopped being offended about the facts and started seriously doing something about it.

**EMG** · January-03-10, 10:26 PM

^^^^^Amen to that.

**DetroitPlanner** · January-04-10, 10:15 AM

I'm an optimist. No things won't get better immediately, but they sure can't get worse than having both GM and Chrysler go bankrupt. All economic indicators are pointing towards it being a good time to invest now and we do have a plethora of investment opportunities.

**iheartthed** · January-04-10, 10:39 AM

Originally Posted by DetroitPlanner

I'm an optimist. No things won't get better immediately, but they sure can't get worse than having both GM and Chrysler go bankrupt. All economic indicators are pointing towards it being a good time to invest now and we do have a plethora of investment opportunities.

What is GM or Chrysler went out of business?

bartock · January-04-10, 10:48 AM

Originally Posted by jtf1972

How much worse could it get? Receivership would be a step up. For the city to deteriorate from the current condition it would practically need to be entirely run by the trifecta of Jackson/Moroun/Illitch and have the only remaining property [[parking lots) constantly having "accidental" fires.

Detroit needs to do many things different, but there are some signs things may be looking up. Frankly, there are signs here in that the real estate market has hit a point where people who never would have considered Detroit are looking at the opportunities available.

Ding! I share the "optimism."